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The oil price outlook is weakened by OPEC+ and lingering trade worries

A poll revealed that analysts have revised their oil price predictions down for the third month in a row as OPEC+'s soaring supply and the uncertainty surrounding the impact of trade wars on fuel demand continue to weigh on prices.

In a survey conducted by 40 economists and analysts, a forecast of Brent crude at $66.98 per bar in 2025 was lowered from the $68.98 estimate made in April. U.S. crude, however, is forecast to be $63.35, which is lower than last month's $65.08 estimate. According to LSEG, prices have averaged around $71.08 and $67.56 so far this year.

Tobias Keller is an analyst at UniCredit. He said that while tensions between the U.S.

Keller said that "on the supply side oil prices are heavily influenced by OPEC+'s production decisions while geopolitical tensions... continue to pose risks of disruption and volatility in price."

Eight OPEC+ member countries began to unwind their output cuts in the first quarter of this year. They agreed on higher-than-expected increases for May and July, totaling 411,000 bpd. Sources have said that the members could decide to increase output for July during a Saturday meeting.

The move is "driven by a desire not to support oil prices, but rather punish members who do not comply." Compliance will be difficult to enforce, particularly in Kazakhstan", said Suvro Sarkar. Lead energy analyst at DBS Bank.

Analysts polled by predict that global oil demand will grow an average of 775, 000 barrels per day by 2025. Many cite elevated trade uncertainty and economic slowdown risk as the main concerns. The International Energy Agency forecasted a 740,000 barrels per day average growth in 2025.

Norbert Ruecker is the head of Economics & Next Generation Research at Julius Baer. He said that with U.S. and China oil consumption constrained by fuel-efficiency gains, economic insecurity and the shift towards electric mobility, the "growth of demand" comes primarily from the resource countries themselves.

The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to increase the geopolitical risks for oil. Analysts claim that markets have priced in uncertainty.

Sarkar said that "potential de-escalation and the possibility of lifting Russian oil sanctions could further lower prices."

(source: Reuters)