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Ampol shares reach a 2-year high after refining margins triple
Ampol, an Australian company, said that its Lytton refinery's margins more than tripled in the 2nd quarter. This was boosted by the surging oil prices linked to the Middle East war, which pushed the shares of the company to their highest levels in over two years. Ampol reported that the prolonged closure of Strait of Hormuz has tightened crude supply to Asian refiners. This has reduced refinery activity, and driven up refined fuel margins because of product shortages. Ampol stated that it was in a good position to handle any conflict as they had secured supplies for the majority of the quarter. The top fuel retailer in the country reported a 255% increase in its Lytton refinery margins for the second quarter, from $8.71 per barrel a year earlier to $30.93. The total volume of group sales fell from 6,304 million litres to 6,176 millions litres. Mark Elzayed said that the earnings strength was driven primarily by exceptional refining profit margins, rather than a broad-based growth in volume. Elzayed warned that a sustained easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz area could lower geopolitical risks and reduce refining margins to longer-term averages, posing a risk to Lytton’s refining earnings. The shares of the company rose 0.6% at 0418 GMT, after gaining as much as 3.4% in the previous session. Ampol announced that its Lytton Refinery will be closed between August and October to perform maintenance. It expects this to result in a reduction of annual production of about 300 million litres. The company will'manage reductions through its diversified sources of supply, import infrastructure and trading capabilities. Elzayed stated that the company's first-half earnings should be sufficient to allow it to fund the Lytton Refinery turnaround with internal cash flow. Fuel retailer reported that its first-half RCOP EBIT was A$1.35billion ($965m) on a non-audited basis. This is more than tripled from the year before.
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Asian stocks falter after a deep crash, and the Fed leaves markets in the dark about interest rates
Asian stocks were volatile on Thursday, after a week filled with?market turmoil sparked by AI fears. A divided Federal Reserve remained steadfast on interest rates and left the bond markets unsure of their next move. Brent 'futures' fell below $90 a barrel after a day of turbulence sparked by AI jitters. The Federal Reserve, divided, remained steadfast on rates and left bond markets uncertain about the next move. Investors were confused by the Fed's split decision on whether it would raise rates to combat inflation. The yields on U.S. Treasuries with longer maturities rose to their highest level in 19 years. Nasdaq Futures rose by 0.4%, while European Futures indicated a muted opening. Investors will focus on the Bank of England's policy announcement, which is expected to remain unchanged. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.6% last after swinging between gains and losses throughout the session. Japan's Nikkei index was up 0.24%, but is still on track for a weekly drop of 4%. Asian chipmakers were the focus of attention in the past week, after a brutal selloff on South Korean stocks wiped out more than $2 trillion from the market value. This heightened investor concern over the return on AI investments. Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC. He said that the markets will remain volatile in the short term due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy and the steepening curve of Treasury yields. VOLATILE KOSPI - SHOWING NO SIGN OF EASING? The KOSPI fell 1% during choppy trades, and was on course for a weekly drop of 15%. This selloff prompted Finance Minister Koo Yon-cheol?to apologize for the introduction of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds, which led?authorities?to unveil measures to stabilize the market. Gina Kim is the portfolio manager of emerging market equity at Nordea Asset Management, Singapore. She said: "Given the fact that the fundamental thesis has not changed, it does seem like there's a panicky, irrational element to the current sales." Samsung Electronics, which posted a 250-fold increase in chip profits to ease some nervousness, said that it expects the chip shortages will worsen and continue into 2028. The earnings reports of Microsoft and Meta, two megacaps in the AI race, showed starkly different fortunes. Microsoft's shares rose after it assured investors that they would continue to generate cash until fiscal 2027, despite its heavy spending. Meta's share price fell, however, following a 91% decline in free cash flow for the second quarter. The earnings from Apple and Amazon on Thursday will give more clarity about the sustainability of the AI market. FED LOOK TO MARKETS AS CUES Kevin Warsh, Fed chair, spoke at a media conference after the meeting. He promised to control inflation. However, he did not give any indications of what steps the central banks might take. Warsh pointed out that bond yields have risen significantly since the Fed’s last policy meeting. This reflects market expectations for higher interest rates. He welcomed the move while stressing it didn't oblige the Fed to confirm those expectations through policy actions. Blerina Uruci, T. Rowe Price's chief U.S. economics officer said: "To me, this is a sign that the market has already done the Fed’s job." Warsh's hawkish tones?will ultimately not be enough?to ensure price stability. The market will soon learn that Warsh, the FOMC and their lack of forward guidance will not deliver a policy outcome simply because the market priced it. The confusion caused the yields of 30-year U.S. Bonds to fall from their peak in June 2007 (5.2273%) late in New York Trading. Fed funds futures now indicate that there is a 60% probability the Fed will?raise rates at its September meeting and have 33 basis points of tightening already priced in. Kerry Craig, global asset manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and J.P. Morgan Asset Management's strategist for global markets, said that the Fed will continue to be questioned about its credibility. The gap between the Fed’s words and actions could pose a problem for market pricing. A new chair is faced with a divided committee, and a bond markets that are beginning to doubt the central bank's determination. (Reporting and editing by Ankur Banerjee, Rae Wee and Lincoln Feast in Singapore.
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Wall Street Journal, July 30,
These are the most popular stories in the Wall Street Journal. The?Wall Street Journal has not?verified these stories or?cannot vouch?for?their accuracy. American?forces?launched strikes against Iran Wednesday night in response to Iran's missile attack on U.S. troops in Jordan. The Pentagon has allocated a total of?more that $120 billion to contractors for the production of Patriot missiles and submarines. Lockheed Martin's contract with Patriot is now worth nearly $59 billion. The Energy Department’s Paducah facility in western Kentucky will be home to a?$100 billion AI data center. Grant Thornton Advisors, a provider of tax and advisory services, has agreed to take CBIZ private for more than $3 billion in cash. -Johnson & Johnson has reached a strategic deal with Sail Biomedicines in order to advance 'its immune-mediated diseases program. They were granted a 'exclusive?option to purchase Sail for $2.58billion. The Justice Department filed a lawsuit against a U.S. judge, Zahid Quraishi, to force the state of New Jersey to release its voter lists without redactions. Starbucks is accelerating U.S. service times by increasing cafe 'labor' and using an algorithm for calculating?orders. U.S. store staffing levels are nearly 100%, with 98% of the scheduled shifts being filled. (Compiled by Bengaluru Newsroom)
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ArcelorMittal's earnings are up as European safeguards pay off
?ArcelorMittal, the world's second-largest steelmaker, reported slightly stronger-than-expected ?core earnings on ?Thursday, ?saying its European ?business is gathering momentum thanks to the EU's safeguards. The Luxembourg-based firm posted core earnings for the second quarter of $2,06 billion. This was higher than the $2.01billion expected by analysts surveyed by?LSEG. Steelmakers in Europe have recently benefitted from a recent protectionist drive. The EU is trying to protect their local production from cheaper Asian imports by imposing a carbon tax on imports that are high-emission. The company believes that the new safeguards are going to support a higher capacity utilization in Europe and restore profitability. Aditya Mittal, CEO of the company, said that the company expects to see higher shipments both in the third quarter and second half of the year. ArcelorMittal reported that it had increased its 'crude steel production' in Europe by about 11% in comparison to the first quarter. This was mainly due to the re-starting of production facilities in Spain and the restarting of a blast furnace in Poland in response the improving demand. Reporting by Javi Larranaga, Gdansk; editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak
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Heidelberg Materials lowers profit forecast due to higher energy costs
Heidelberg Materials said that it expects the war in Iran to further increase energy costs for this year. The German cement manufacturer also lowered its profit forecasts for 2026. The group stated that inflation and high financing costs would continue to have a negative impact on global residential construction. High energy costs were also cited as a major factor. Even though CEO Dominik von Achten highlighted "a?environment which remains geopolitically & economically'very challenging", he said that there were still first signs of a visible demand recovery in the core markets. Heidelberg Materials expects to see its operating profit drop from EUR3.40 to EUR3.65 billion (USD3.89 to $4.18) to EUR3,40 to EUR3.65 billion. This is a decrease from the previous range between EUR3.40 and EUR3.75 billion. According to an?evaluation provided by the company the operating profit of the group is expected to be EUR3.51 billion. This would represent a 4% growth year-on-year. $1 = 0.8733 Euros (Reporting and Editing by Ludwig Burger).
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Gold falls as Treasury yields rise and offset the focus on Warsh’s inflation message
Gold prices fell on Thursday due to higher U.S. Treasury yields. Markets also assessed Kevin Warsh's comments on the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation following its decision this week not change interest rates. As of 0445 GMT spot gold was down by 0.4%, at $4,048.39 an ounce. It had risen as high as 2% the previous session. U.S. Gold futures for August delivery rose 0.3% to $4.045.70. The yields on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note increased, increasing 'the opportunity cost' of holding gold. Soni Kumari, an ANZ analyst, said that "yields are a product of rate expectations." If the market believes that inflation fears will lead to higher rates, then yields will rise. This will put pressure on gold. The Federal Reserve, divided on its policy direction, left interest rates unchanged Wednesday. Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment?to?bringing inflation under?control. This uncertainty about the next move of the Federal Reserve has left markets in a state of uncertainty. Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, but it loses appeal in an environment with high interest rates as a non yielding asset. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the markets still price in a 65% probability of a rate increase in September. This is down from 81% just before?the policy announcement. Investors also await the U.S. The Personal Consumption Expenditure data (PCE), due at 1230 GMT. The U.S. conducted fresh strikes on Iran's?geopolitical side? on Wednesday. The military said that the war, which has been raging for five months, was intensifying. It had already spread beyond its main fronts and into other countries in the area. Oil prices?lost some of their gains as oil tankers?continued their journey out of the Middle East on Thursday. Analysts at TD Securities wrote in a report that the yellow metal was likely to drift?back?towards $3,900 an ounce because oil is still?under pressure?to move even higher 'throughout the summer. Spot silver dropped 0.6%, to $57.30 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.1%, to $1.593.77. Palladium increased 0.6% to $1253.25.
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Morning bid Europe-Bond markets do the Fed's job
Ankur Banerjee gives a look at what the markets will be like in Europe and globally. A divided Federal Reserve and a confusing message by Chair Kevin 'Warsh about where rates are heading has left the bond market scratching their heads and'somehow in control, in an 'odd reversal which raises questions regarding the credibility of the central bank. As expected, the U.S. Central Bank did nothing, but three dissenters highlighted the growing divide between policymakers about the next steps to combat inflation, which remains above the Fed’s target of 2 percent. Warsh pledged to contain inflation, but did not give any indications of what steps the central banks might take. He noted that bond yields have risen significantly since the Fed’s last policy meeting and reflect market expectations for higher interest rates. He praised the rise in short-term bonds yields while stressing it didn't oblige the Fed with policy actions to validate these expectations. It is not good for a central bank to talk about its independence and then do nothing. Ed Yardeni, a Wall Street veteran, said that "talking hawkish and not acting in this way reduces the Fed’s credibility." "We conclude that in order to reduce long-term interest rates, the Fed must raise short-term rate." Bond investors changed the dynamic on Thursday as the Treasury curve steepened. The yield on inflation-sensitive U.S. 30-year bonds has reached its highest level in 19 years. Fears about the AI market kept sentiment fragile. However, the selloff on Friday was not as steep as it had been earlier in the week. The earnings from Microsoft and Samsung helped to'soothe nerves, but the?huge decline in Meta cash flows highlighted that these firms are struggling to make money on their massive investments. The Bank of England will announce its policy in the European 'hours. It is likely that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged as it considers the impact of Iran 'war, which has shut the Strait of Hormuz since last May and increased inflation pressures. The following are the key developments that may influence markets on Thursday. Economic events: Bank of England decision on policy, Q2 GDP, and July sentiment data in the euro zone. July inflation for Germany. (By Ankur Bhanerjee, Singapore)
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Oil prices fall as markets watch for clues about Gulf supplies
The oil prices lost some of their gains on Thursday despite the escalating attacks across the Gulf. Investors' attention shifted to the supply flow through the major chokepoints within the region. Brent futures dropped 96 cents or 1.06% to $89.78 per barrel as of 0418 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), crude oil, fell 64 cents or 0.76% to $83.82 per barrel. Brent and WTI both rose by 6.56% during the previous session, one of the biggest spikes in the Iran War. This was after the pause of hostilities that occurred on Tuesday following a 5% drop. The prices of gasoline and diesel rose after U.S. president Donald Trump warned on Wednesday that he would hit Iran "very, very hard"? following an Iranian missile strike on Tuesday against a U.S. military base in Jordan. In retaliation to drone attacks launched by Iraq against?Saudi oil sites, the U.S., Saudi Arabia and other countries attacked paramilitary groups in Iraq backed by Iran. This was the first time Saudi Arabia had publicly joined U.S. aerial strikes. U.S. Central Command reported that the U.S. carried out attacks against Iran for two hours on Wednesday. This?ended the lull of U.S. attacks on Iran which began at the weekend. "Trump's hit hard' rhetoric caused the price spike instantly but it looks like the market has fully priced in (that) and is considering the TACO possibility right now," Lin Ye, vice-president of commodity markets for oil at Rystad, said. She was referring to Trump Always Chickens out. Ye said that the market follows a pattern. Geopolitical headlines trigger rapid price spikes. However, these gains are usually short-lived because actual supply flows and simultaneous diplomatic efforts determine how long they persist. The price of crude oil is being controlled as it continues to flow from the Gulf region, despite the Strait of Hormuz almost shutting down. Iran shut down the waterway - through which a fifth or more of the global oil and natural gas flowed before - after the U.S. vs. Israel 'war' began on February 28. Rystad Energy estimates that about 13 million barrels of oil per day from the Gulf still reach markets. Even after the Iran-aligned Houthis of?Yemen imposed a Naval Blockade on Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea, July?20 disrupting shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Some cargoes have still flown to the markets, especially on tankers connected with China. While overall volumes have been reduced, oil continues to leak out through a variety of channels. Additional workarounds are also being explored. In a note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that the 'longer this situation continues, the more these alternate routes and methods will erode Iran’s leverage over Strait of Hormuz. Reporting by Mohi N. Narayan and Colleen H. Howe, Beijing. Editing by Lincoln Feast & Christian Schmollinger.
The Supreme Court's top cases
In the current term of the U.S. Supreme Court, there are cases that involve guns, gender affirming medical care for minors who identify as transgender, online pornography and religious rights, TikTok and preventive healthcare. There are also cases that concern funding Planned Parenthood, job discrimination and federal regulation powers over nuclear waste storage, vape products and voting rights.
Take a look at the recent and upcoming cases that the justices will be deciding.
'GHOST GUN' On March 26, the court upheld a federal rule targeting "ghost guns", which are largely untraceable, imposed by former Democratic President Joe Biden in an effort to crackdown on firearms that have been used in crimes across the country. The ruling by 7-2 overturned the lower court decision that the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives exceeded its authority when it issued the 2022 rule aimed at parts and kits of ghost guns. The court found the regulation to be in line with the 1968 federal Gun Control Act.
TRANSGENDER RIGHTS During arguments on 4 December, the court's conservative judges indicated that they were willing to uphold Tennessee's Republican-backed ban on gender affirming medical care for minors who are transgender. This case could have a significant impact on other state laws that target transgender individuals. Biden's Administration appealed the decision of a lower court upholding Tennessee’s ban on medical treatment, including hormones and surgery for minors suffering from gender dysphoria. This refers to the distress caused by the incongruity of a person’s gender identity with the sex assigned at birth. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
MEXICO GUN LAWSUIT On March 4, the justices showed sympathy for a request by two American firearms companies to dismiss the Mexican government’s lawsuit accusing the companies of aiding the illegal trafficking of guns to drug cartels, and fueling the gun violence in Mexico's southern neighbor. The justices heard arguments from Smith & Wesson, a firearms manufacturer and distributor of Interstate Arms in their appeal against a lower-court ruling allowing the lawsuit on the basis that Mexico had plausibly alleged the companies aided illegal gun sales and harmed its government. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
U.S. TIKTOK BAN On January 17, the justices upheld a federal law that would ban TikTok from the United States if the Chinese parent company ByteDance failed to sell the short video app within a time limit set by Congress. The Justices ruled, 9-0, that the law passed by Congress and signed by Biden last year did not violate First Amendment protections against government abridgment. The justices upheld a lower court decision that had upheld this measure. Biden's replacement, Republican President Donald Trump chose not to enforce it and instead gave both parties time to work out a compromise.
Online Pornography The Justices heard arguments about whether the First Amendment protects against government interference in speech when a Texas law requires that pornographic sites verify users' ages to limit access by minors. The justices voiced concerns over the availability and accessibility of online pornography, but also expressed concern about burdens placed on adults who wish to view constitutionally-protected material. A trade group representing the adult entertainment industry has appealed the decision of a lower court that upheld the Republican-led State's age verification mandate. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
WORKPLACE DISCRIMINATION On February 26, the court heard arguments in a case where a woman claimed that she was denied a job promotion and demoted because of her heterosexuality by a state government agency in Ohio. The justices seemed to favor making it easier for those from "majority backgrounds" to bring workplace discrimination cases, such as straight or white people. Marlean Ames, the plaintiff, said that she worked with a homosexual supervisor when, in 2019, she was demoted and passed over for promotion to a woman gay. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
RELIGIOUS SCHOOL The court will hear a case that tests the separation between church and state. Two Catholic dioceses are attempting to establish the first taxpayer-funded charter school in Oklahoma. St. Isidore Catholic Virtual School was shut down by a lower court, which ruled that the funding arrangement for the school violated First Amendment restrictions on government endorsements of religion. Arguments will be held on April 30.
RELIGIOUS TASKS EXEMPTION In a case that could have constitutional implications, a Wisconsin Catholic diocese's arm is seeking a religious exemption to the state unemployment insurance tax. The Catholic Charities Bureau of the Catholic Diocese of Superior appealed the lower court's rejection of its exemption request. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the bureau, it could force Wisconsin and other states that have similar tax programs in place to expand their exemptions to conform to the First Amendment protections in the U.S. Constitution. The arguments are scheduled for 31 March.
LGBT SCHOOL BIBLES The court accepted a request from religious parents who wanted to prevent their children from attending classes in a Maryland district public school when LGBT stories are read. This is yet another case that involves the intersection of religion and LGBT rights. Parents of children attending Montgomery County Public Schools filed an appeal after lower courts refused a plaintiff's request for a preliminary order ordering the district not to read these books. Arguments will be held on April 22.
OBAMACARE PREPARED CARE MANDATE This court will determine the legality of an important component of the Affordable Health Care Act, which gives a taskforce established under the Obamacare healthcare law the power to demand that insurers provide preventive medical services without cost to the patient. The court heard an appeal from the Biden administration against a lower-court ruling which sided with a Christian group of businesses that objected to the fact that their employee health plans covered HIV-prevention medication. They also argued that task force structure was in violation of the U.S. Constitution. Arguments will be held on April 21.
PLANNED PARENTHOOD FINANCE The court will examine South Carolina's attempt to cut off funding to Planned Parenthood. This case could support conservative states in the U.S. who want to deny Planned Parenthood government funding for reproductive healthcare and abortion. A lower court ruled that the Republican-governed state could not terminate funding for Planned Parenthood South Atlantic under the Medicaid insurance program. Arguments will be held on April 2.
NUCLEAR WASTE STORAGE On March 5, the justices heard arguments over whether the Nuclear Regulatory Commission had the authority to issue licenses for certain nuclear waste facilities, amid objections raised by the state Texas and oil industry interests. The U.S. Government and a company awarded a license to operate an operation in western Texas by the NRC appealed the ruling of a lower court declaring that the storage arrangement was illegal. The NRC regulates nuclear energy in the United States. The NRC is expected to make a decision by the end June.
FLAVORED VAPOR PRODUCTS On December 2, the court heard arguments in defense of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its refusal to allow two ecigarette companies to sell flavored products, which regulators believe to be a risk to health. The lower court ruled that the FDA failed to follow the proper legal procedures in federal law when they rejected the applications for the sale of these nicotine-containing products. The end of June is the expected date for a ruling.
EPA AUTHORITY On March 4, the court handed a major blow to the Environmental Protection Agency with a ruling of 5-4. The case involved a wastewater treatment plant owned by San Francisco. This could make it more difficult for regulators and water quality inspectors to monitor pollution. The court ruled that EPA had exceeded its authority in a law against pollution by putting vague restrictions on a permit for the facility which discharges into the Pacific Ocean. In recent years, the court has limited the EPA’s power as part of a number of rulings that have curbed the federal regulatory agencies’ powers.
TAILPIPE Emissions A major case that tests the power of the Democratic-governed California to combat greenhouse gases is a challenge by fuel producers against California's standards on vehicle emissions and electric vehicles under a federal law on air pollution. Valero Energy, along with fuel industry groups, appealed the lower court's decision to reject their challenge against a Biden administration decision to let California set its own regulation. Arguments will be held on April 23.
The Supreme Court is hearing a dispute regarding the legality and operation of the TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERIES FUND, a fund that Congress authorized to be operated by the Federal Communications Commission in order to increase access to telecommunications. The conservative Consumers' Research group and others accused Congress of illegally delegating authority to an independent federal organization. The FCC, along with a coalition including interest groups and telecoms companies, appealed an earlier court decision which found that Congress had violated the Constitution when it gave the FCC the authority to manage the fund. Arguments will be held on March 26.
LOUISIANA ELECTORAL MAP On March 24, the justices heard arguments in a bid to preserve an election map that increased the number of Black-majority districts in the state. This was in response to a legal challenge brought by a group voters who identified themselves as "non African American." Three federal judges determined that the map of Louisiana's six U.S. House of Representatives district - which now has two Black-majority areas, instead of one - violated the Constitutional promise of equal treatment. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
Death Penalty Case On February 25, the court threw away Richard Glossip’s conviction in Oklahoma for a murder-for hire plot that took place in 1997 and gave him a fresh trial. In a 5-3 decision, the justices concluded that prosecutors had violated their constitutional obligation to correct false testimony from their star witness. The justices reversed the lower court decision which had upheld Glossip’s conviction. They also allowed his planned death to proceed despite Glossip’s claim that prosecutors had wrongly withheld information that could have helped his defense.
(source: Reuters)