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European gas prices seen falling even more in 2024 on high storage - WoodMac

European gas rates are expected to fall as low as $6.70 per million British thermal systems (mmBtu) in summer, down 15% from present levels, with stocks starting the season 55% full due to moderate weather, Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday.

European gas rates have actually been gradually decreasing for the second winter season pursuing increasing sharply in the wake of Russia's intrusion of Ukraine.

In February, the benchmark agreement at the Dutch TTF gas hub fell to pre-war levels and is now trading near 25 euros per megawatt per hour (MWh) (around $8/mmBtu), compared to a record 306 euros/MWh in August 2022.

In a report, Wood Mackenzie stated a 2nd consecutive moderate European winter implies European storage levels will reach 89% by the end of July 2024, putting more pressure on rates.

Winter season 2023/24 has actually seen greater temperatures and wind speeds than average, reducing heating need and at the same time increasing wind generation, producing a double cut to gas usage.

With storage levels nearing full capacity towards the end of the summer season, there will be up to 10 billion cubic meters of excess supply that will require to either be piped into underground storage facilities in Ukraine or floated in LNG vessels, Director of Europe Gas & & LNG Markets Mauro Chavez said.

This suggests that a higher summer-winter differential is needed to balance the marketplace, compared to what the present forward curve recommends, putting down pressure on ( third-quarter) prices, Chavez said.

The report stated gas costs are set to rise in 2025 despite the predicted increase in liquefied natural gas

(source: Reuters)