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Turkey wins 3-2 in LA with a last-gasp goal
Turkey's first victory of the tournament came on Thursday when?Kaan yhan? scored a 3-2 win over a United States side that was second string at the?Los Angeles Stadium. The co-hosts had already won their group and qualified for the knockout rounds. Auston Trusty scored in the third-minute to the delight of a sold out crowd. Sebastian Berhalter's long-range shot, shortly after the halftime break, brought the U.S. level. Ayhan, the substitute, had the last laugh when he found the empty net at far post to score the winning goal. The U.S.?now turns their attention to Wednesday's knockout round match with?Bosnia and Herzegovina at?Santa Clara while?Turkey returns home, having at least salvaged a little pride. (Reporting and editing by Ken Ferris, Rory Carroll)
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Chipflation
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets Apple revealed that a bill must be paid by someone, just as investors were settling in to the idea that AI was still on the rise. Apple has said that it cannot absorb the rising memory and storage costs due to the AI data center boom. Micron's astronomical results this week highlighted the shift. Customers locked in $22 billion worth of Micron memory chips as a sign that markets are tightening and pricing power is increasing. What does it say when Apple, with its supply chain relationships envied by the entire industry, isn't immune to the memory price spike? What's next? Xbox to increase prices? Oh. Asian markets fell on Friday, as news that OpenAI may delay its public debut to next year also soured sentiment. South Korea's KOSPI - a bellwether for the AI industry - fell 8% in one day and 9% over the course of a week, its steepest fall since early March, when the Iran War first broke out. The oil market is still a major player, but it has slowed down. Oil tankers continue to leave the Strait of Hormuz despite a cargo ship being hit near Oman. Brent and WTI crude oil have lost almost all of the gains made by the hostilities that erupted in late February in the Middle East. But a gradual normalisation and a return to demand could tighten the markets next year. This easing was a relief but not enough. In May, U.S. inflation surpassed 4% for the first time in 3 years. This kept an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve on the table. The U.S. Dollar is now in a strong position, while the Japanese yen struggles to reach a low of 40 years, amid growing intervention fears. The dollar index will rise by?2.6% this month. This is its biggest monthly gain in over a year. We'll end our report with the early summer heatwave which has ravaged?Western Europe. This predicament is leading to a boom in air conditioner sales from Asian manufacturers. Health risks of extreme heat are explained as temperatures in Britain, Switzerland and other countries reach record highs. The following are the key developments that may influence Friday's markets: Economic events: French unemployment in May (by Ankur Banerjee Editing done by Shri Navaranam)
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Oil prices down 2% despite resumption in Hormuz shippings, even after vessel hits near Oman
Crude prices fell?2% Friday, and are headed for steep weekly losses amid eased supply concerns. More oil tankers have left the Strait of Hormuz as more stranded vessels leave. Brent crude futures dropped $1.47 or 1.95% to $73.79 per barrel at 0421 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down $1.44 or 2% to $70.48 per barrel. Shipping data from LSEG revealed that Saudi Aramco, the world's largest refiner, resumed oil loading at its Ras-Tanura terminal in?Gulf on Friday after a nearly four-month halt. The data revealed that two Very Large Crude Carrier were loading crude at the terminal, while another was waiting nearby. Each VLCC can load 2 million barrels. According to June Goh of Sparta Commodities, senior oil analyst, "there is a general selling off as the market reacts?to the increased flows leaving the Strait of Hormuz. China has not yet picked up on crude demand." Both benchmark contracts rose more than 2% Thursday, after an unidentified projectile hit a cargo ship near Oman. This prompted the U.N. shipping agency to suspend their voluntary evacuation scheme. Two U.S. officials said that Iran shot at the cargo ship when it tried to pass through strait. Iranian authorities have said that the safety of vessels traveling outside of designated Hormuz routes cannot be guaranteed. Brent crude and WTI oil are both expected to lose around 8% in the coming week. The data showed that the crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest level this week since the U.S./Israeli conflict began with Iran in February. A ceasefire agreement reopened the waterway and concerns over how long it would remain open also increased?trade. Overall, however, the traffic is still a fraction of what it was before the conflict began on February 28, when 125 ships passed through the strait every day. "A large part of the increase is due to previously stranded ships leaving the Persian Gulf. The vessel flows into the Gulf are much lower. This suggests that after stranded ships have been removed, we may see a reduction in the flow of vessels," ING analysts wrote a note. The earthquakes that occurred in Venezuela on Thursday have also caused supply concerns. Workers have conducted preliminary assessments of Venezuela's oil, gas, and refining infrastructure. They found that the damage was limited, since the country's largest output regions, refineries and pipelines, and terminals were 'far away' from the worst-hit areas. Sources said that despite the lack of electricity, it is doubtful whether oil production can be maintained at its pre-quake level, which was close to 1.2m barrels a day. Reporting by Mohi Nairayan in New Delhi; Sam Li and Lewis Jackson, in Beijing; editing by Kevin Buckland
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The dollar's strength and macro-economic headwinds are expected to cause a weekly decline in copper.
The copper price is expected to fall by at least 1% on Friday due to a stronger dollar and continuing macroeconomic concerns. However, dip buying has limited the loss. Benchmark three-month?copper on the London Metal Exchange fell by?1% at $13,137 per metric ton?by 3:00 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract remained largely unchanged, with a 0.1% increase at 101,360 Yuan ($14900.84) per ton. The copper price was expected to drop by over 3% in both markets at the end of this week. The U.S. dollar gained 0.09%, partially reversing Thursday's ?decline and making greenback-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Other economic headwinds from the Middle East war helped push the key U.S. Inflation indicator to its highest level in three year in May. Industrial minerals that are dependent on growth have been impacted by inflation and expectations of higher interest rates. In a note, Chinese broker, Jinrui Futures (a subsidiary of Jiangxi Copper), wrote that lower?Shanghai Copper prices had brought back some buying interest to the market on Thursday. China's Yangshan Copper Premium The, which measures the buying appetite of the largest consumer in the world, reached its highest level in three weeks. Copper stocks on LME Stocks on the CME continued to decline. increased. Material has been withdrawn from U.S. storage facilities ahead of President Trump's recommendation next week to introduce tariffs on imports of copper. Aluminum largely brushed aside jitters following this week's tentative Middle East Peace after a cargo ship said it was?hit by a projectile on the Strait of Hormuz. It fell 0.32% on the LME and 0.59% on the SHFE. The LME has seen the price of the light metal?fall 6% since the beginning of the week, as the Middle East premium declined. Zinc fell by 1.31% among?other LME Metals. Lead lost 0.44%. Nickel dropped by 1.27%. Tin decreased by 2.52%. Nickel fell 1.91%, tin dropped 2.02%, and zinc was down 1.17% on SHFE. Lead also remained unchanged, only up 0.03%.
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Iron ore to suffer seventh-week loss due to soaring inventory and falling steel demand
Iron ore fell on Friday, and was headed for a seventh consecutive weekly loss. This was due to a swollen portside inventory, faltering steel demand in China's top consumer, as well as falling global freight rates. The most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange has fallen 1.5%, to 733.5 Yuan ($107.83), a metric tonne, and is down 1.7% for the week. The benchmark July Iron Ore at the?Singapore Exchange is 0.5% lower, $96.95 per ton. This represents a 2.3% drop so far this week. Stocks of iron ore piled up in ports across China due to a rise in supply by major suppliers. Prices of this key steel-making ingredient are under pressure. According to Mysteel, the Chinese portside iron ore inventory rose 1.3% from the previous week. China's steel demand was also affected by the high temperatures in summer, which hampered outdoor activities in certain regions. Also, trade barriers around the world are increasing and limiting exports. Analysts at Everbright Futures wrote in a report that "the rapid decline in downstream steel consumption" will determine ore prices in the medium-term. The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to end their more than three-month-long?war, which has removed a layer of support for iron ore. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, fell by 0.88% and 1.13 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks have mostly fallen. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.51% and wire rod dropped 0.15%.
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Oil prices fall amid the resumption in shipments through the strait, despite a vessel collision near Oman
The oil prices dropped on Friday morning, and are headed for steep losses this week amid easing supply concerns. More oil tankers have left the Strait of Hormuz as stranded vessels leave. Brent crude futures dropped 19 cents or 0.25% to $75.07 per barrel at 0055 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 13 cents or 0.18% to $71.79 per barrel. The benchmark contracts both rose more than 2% after an unknown projectile hit a cargo ship near Oman. This prompted the U.N. shipping agency to suspend their voluntary evacuation scheme. Two U.S. officials said that Iran shot at the cargo ship when it was trying to pass through the strait. Iranian authorities have said that the safety of vessels traveling outside designated Hormuz route is not guaranteed. The geopolitical risks are creeping into the prices again. Markets will be closely watching to see if the tanker traffic returns or if the latest obstacles force producers to halt planned production increases. Brent crude and WTI oil are both expected to lose close to 7% of their value this week. After a ceasefire agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz, data showed that crude shipments rose to their highest level since the U.S./Israeli conflict began with Iran in February. Concerns about the length of time the Strait would remain open also helped boost trade. The overall traffic is still a fraction of the daily average of 125 vessels that passed through the Strait before the conflict on February 28. The earthquakes that occurred in Venezuela on Thursday have also caused supply concerns. Workers have so far reported that the damage to Venezuela's vast oil, gas, and refining infrastructure is minimal, since most of the largest production regions, refineries, pipelines, and terminals, are located far away from the worst-hit areas. Sources said that a lack of power is still causing concern about whether the oil production can be maintained at its pre-earthquake levels, which were close to 1.2m barrels per day. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson and Sam Li)
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Don't confuse turbulence and decline. McGeever: This market is on its feet
The markets are awash with red flags that warn of another turbulent second half in 2026. Don't mistake turbulence for a sign of a correction. Late bull markets are often characterized by wild volatility, eye-watering price fluctuations and a wide range of asset classes and benchmark indices. This is when exuberance becomes irrational, to paraphrase late Federal Reserve chair?Alan Greenspan. These dynamics are playing out in varying degrees on many markets. Silver has fallen 55% since its January peak and Bitcoin's value has dropped by more than half since November. The tech market has been a volatile ride -- the SOX Philadelphia semiconductor index posted 10% daily drops, but was still up 90% from March. Micron Technology tripled to a $1 Trillion market cap in just three months. South Korean stocks are a perfect example of the turmoil -- and resilience -- that marked the first half of 2026. The AI-pumped KOSPI had a bullish market, rising by 50% in the first 2 months of the year. But it plunged into a bearish market three days later after the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran. It's no wonder that realized volatility has risen to new heights. Since that low in march, the KOSPI index has almost doubled despite four corrections of double-digits. This type of frenzied behaviour is usually preceded by a steeper correction or bear market. These wild price swings, coupled with sky-high prices and a growing IPO mania are putting investors in high alert. Even if the diagnosis of "irrational markets" is correct, and they are heading into this territory, fears about a sharp market correction may be premature. Room for EXUBERANCE Wall Street certainly seems to believe that. JPMorgan strategists and Barclays analysts raised their forecasts for the S&P 500 at the end of 2026 to 7,800, which implies a further 5% increase. Meanwhile, BCA Research analysts increased their year-end outlook to 8,100 points, almost 10% higher than current levels. BCA's team stated on Tuesday that "our constructive equity view is based on earnings and not valuation." The economy has moved from a slowdown to an expansion. Investments continue to grow, and earnings are stronger than expected. This is a compelling argument until hard evidence to the contrary emerges. Rarely, bull markets can fall under their own weight. A sharp reversal is more likely to be triggered by a factor, such as an unexpected financial shock, a sudden rise in interest rates or a policy mistake. We haven't seen one yet. In the first half of this year, we have seen a war, an unprecedented global energy crunch, a shift to hawkish Fed communication, and a growing concern over hyperscalers’ capex expenditure and debt issuance. Investors have shrugged off all of it. JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos–Bujas and his team understand that even if the path of U.S. equity prices is up, it may be “non-linear” and there will be various obstacles to overcome. Recent earnings have 'raise the bar' for future earnings. The IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and other companies are expected to increase the equity supply. The Fed may soon stop talking about tightening its monetary policy and start actually raising rates. Rising borrowing costs are one of the main causes of "death" for bull markets. There's no doubt that the U.S. Central Bank's recent hawkish pivot is behind the recent weakness in certain risky assets. Investors will continue to see downdrafts, if earnings remain stable, AI continues its craze and the global economic system keeps on chugging, as a buying opportunity. Greenspan's famous "irrational" exuberance comment was made in December 1996 - more than three years before the peak of the dotcom bubble in March 2000. The current rally may have a long way to go. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Agroconsult reports that Brazil's second-corn production outlook for 2025/26 is up, but still lags behind the last cycle.
Agroconsult, a Brazilian agribusiness consultancy, has increased its estimates for the key second-corn crops in 2025/26 by 3.4%. However, the projections still fall short of the previous season's record output due to bad weather. Agroconsult, citing the results of its Rally da Safra tour, said that the second-corn harvest, which is the majority of Brazil's corn crop and is currently being harvested, will reach 115.8 millions metric tons during the 2025/26 crop season. Agroconsult reported that Brazil's outlook for its second-corn crop, which is planted in the same fields after soybeans have been harvested, shows a 7.6% drop from a record production cycle of 125.3 millions tons. This is due to unpredictable weather, which has a negative impact on production, despite a relatively stable planted area. Brazil is the third largest corn producer in the world and a major corn exporter. Agroconsult reported that weather-related problems affected the states of Goias, Minas Gerais and the southeast area of 'Mato Grosso. Agroconsult reported that "in these regions, the planting took place outside of the window considered to be ideal", leading to a decrease in planted area as well as significant losses when rains stopped prematurely in April or May. Agroconsult reported that Brazilian corn farmers will harvest a total of 144.1 millions tons of corn in 2025/26, which is above the May forecast of 140.5 million tons, but below the 152.3 million ton record of the previous crop. The consultancy also predicted a decline in exports from the previous cycle, estimating that the South American nation?will send 37?million tonnes of corn abroad this season, a drop of 11.3%. Analysts at the consultancy firm stated that lower exports are due to competition from the United States, Argentina and an expanding corn-based industry in 'homeland, which offers often better profit potential than exporting. "Brazil is awash in ethanol, but the price the industry pays for it, which is above parity, means that we are losing our competitiveness on the export market," said Adriano Lotti, partner and grain market manager at Agroconsult. Reporting by Roberto Samora, Writing by Isabel Teles and Andre Romani, Editing by Daina Bet Solomon and Lincoln Feast.
Gold set for fourth-week loss due to Fed's hawkish bets
Friday saw gold?fall for a fourth consecutive weekly?fall? as a strong dollar and expectations that the U.S. would raise rates faster to combat inflation kept the bullion price below $4,000 an ounce.
By 0247 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.9% to $3.991.49 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 1% to $4.007.30.
On Wednesday, the bullion market was on course for a 4% loss for the week after it fell below the $4,000 mark for the first time since 2025.
The rapid repricing by the hawkish Fed led to a strong bullish momentum for the U.S. Dollar, which ultimately led to the significant decline in gold prices, said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA.
The U.S. Dollar Index held near its highest level since May 2025, and was on track for a second consecutive weekly gain. This made gold more expensive for those who hold other currencies.
Wong believes that the gold price has been in a multi-month decline since late January's record high. He sees this correction continuing in the future towards $3,400.
Gold prices fell by about 29% from their record high of $5,594.82 in January 29 as inflation fueled by the U.S. - Iran war pushed up rate-hike betting.
According to data released on Thursday, U.S. inflation increased in May and broke above 4.0%, for the first time since?three years. This was predicted by economists who were surveyed.
Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge, but it loses its appeal in high interest rate environments as a non yielding asset.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders?expect a Fed rate increase in September and have priced it at about 64%.
Silver spot fell 3.2% per ounce to $56.01, platinum dropped 2.4% to 1,563.20 and palladium was down 1.6% at $1,165.93. All metals were heading for a loss. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Pablo Sinha; Additional reporting by Swati verma; Editing and proofreading by Subhranshu Sahu).
(source: Reuters)