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Bonds are in decline as stocks benefit from the tech dip buying
Investors rushed to purchase the latest dips in tech stocks on Tuesday, while oil prices dropped?after Israel & Iran agreed to temporarily halt their?attacks against each other. In Europe, ASML and Infineon led the STOXX 600 to a?up?0.5%. U.S. Stock Futures grew 0.4% to 0.6% as shares of a wide range of companies gained in premarket trading. These included Nvidia and Eli Lilly, which all rose around 0.6%. OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, filed a confidential U.S. IPO on Monday. This was just days before SpaceX made its highly anticipated debut in the market this week. Wall Street CEOs and bankers are ecstatic about these mega-cap listing, but on the street, there's a growing sense of caution, according to XTB Research Director Kathleen Brooks. The IPO is not the most interesting part of the SpaceX IPO. What is more?interesting is the future earnings reports that SpaceX will have to produce to justify a valuation of 56 times forward earnings. Oracle's results on Wednesday will be the next major test for technology. Apple shares failed to benefit from the long-delayed AI revamp of Siri that was unveiled during Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference. Investors are also concerned about the rising risks of borrowing costs. According to LSEG, U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are now above 4.5%. Also, 30-year yields spent more days in the 5% range this year than any other year since 2007. The Middle East is experiencing high tensions and the maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been below normal, keeping oil prices at $90 per barrel. Bank of America analysts said that "inflation is still sticky enough to cause 46 of 68 central banks around the world to exceed their targets. This helps explain why bonds are being repriced for tighter policies and why long-duration investments, private credit and several EM currency are struggling." Our Global Breadth Rule indicates that nearly half of the equity markets are already overbought. This is led by Korea and Taiwan, as well as Finland. The possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise rates to combat inflationary increases this year has weakened bonds and increased the dollar. It has gained about 2 percent in the past four weeks. The May payrolls report on Friday helped to cement the idea that at least one rate hike is possible this year. Data on the?U.S. Consumer prices due on Wednesday are expected to reveal that energy costs continued to drive headline inflation up in May. Futures prices indicate a 60% chance of a Fed rate rise as early as October. A quarter-point increase is also almost fully priced in for December. The markets are fully priced in for the European Central Bank to raise the rate by a quarter point, from 2.25% to 2.35% at its meeting on Thursday. They also see the key interest rate reaching 2.5% or even 2.75% before the year is out. The unexpected strength of U.S. jobs?kept dollar at 160.2 yen. This is above the 160 mark, which many believe will trigger more Japanese buying. Satsuki Katayama, the Finance Minister, said on Tuesday that officials are "always ready to take decisive actions." The?euro last rose 0.1% to $1.1546. This is just above the nine-week low at $1.15. Meanwhile, the pound edged upwards from a three-week low at $1.338. Brent crude futures dropped 1.75 percent to $92.60 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen from the four-year highs of late April, but they are still 30% higher than in late February. Futures for delivery of crude oil in six months time are also 21% higher. Wayne Cole (Reporting; editing by Kevin Buckland Himani Sarkar, and Thomas Derpinghaus).
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Gold prices steady as traders consider inflation and Israel-Iran ceasefire risks
The gold price remained stable on Tuesday, as traders assessed the fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. Inflation and interest rate hikes were also top of mind. As of 0746 GMT, spot gold was unchanged at $4,328.39 an ounce. The previous session saw bullion at its lowest level in more than two months. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down 0.3% to $4,352.30. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade said that gold is trading moderately, as traders are sceptical of the durability of an Iran-Israel ceasefire. They also remain cautious in advance of this week's U.S. Inflation data, which could influence the Fed's outlook. Iran and Israel announced?on Monday that they had halted their attacks after an appeal by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, Tehran warned that it would resume hostilities in the event Israel continued to strike Hezbollah. Goldman Sachs expects that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current levels through 2026, and defer rate cuts until 2027. They cite stronger economic growth and job creation as reasons for this. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are pricing in more than 70% of the possibility of an?U.S. According to CME FedWatch, traders are pricing in a more than 70% chance of a?U.S. Investors are preparing for the U.S. Consumer Price Index data due on Wednesday to determine the Fed's policy direction. Waterer stated that a return to $5,500 gold by the end of the year is still possible, if oil prices, bond rates and 'the dollar' all take a downward turn. Silver spot rose 0.3% per ounce to $68.36, platinum rose 0.4% to $1761.53, while palladium rose by 1.8% to $1226.47. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru, Sherry j. Phillips, Eileen Soreng, Andrew Heavens.)
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As tensions in the Middle East and China reduce imports of copper, tight LME stock levels counteract lower China imports.
The price of copper?went up slightly on Tuesday as London Metal Exchange inventories shrank, helping it to withstand pressures from concerns over?Middle East tensions?, inflation?, and lower China imports. Benchmark 'three-month' copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.48% by 0702 GMT to $13,681.5 per metric ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 0.56%, to 104.650 yuan (15,452.42) per ton. The Donald Trump administration is expected to make a decision on tariffs for copper imports by the end of the month. Data released by China's top consumer showed that imports of copper unwrought have declined significantly this year. This has capped the price increases. China imported 2,01 million tons of 'unwrought copper' and copper products in the first five months of 2026. This is a 7% decrease from the previous year. Yangshan Copper Premium On Monday, the price of copper, which reflects the demand for imported metal, was at $64 per ton, its lowest level since April 28. The market will be closely watching the release of U.S. CPI for May data on Wednesday. Craig Lang, principal economist at?CRU said that if inflation is higher than expected, the market would price in an increased probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. He said: "I'd expect copper and risk assets to react negatively to that event." Oil prices dropped by 1.16% and are now close to the levels they were before the exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran over weekend. Industrial metals that are dependent on growth will be dampened by high energy costs. Aluminium gained 0.19% on the LME, while zinc gained 0.81%. Lead?increased by 0.35%. Nickel rose 0.21%. Tin gained 0.84%. On the?SHFE, tin, lead, nickel, and zinc all fell, while aluminium rose 0.08%.
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Sources: India looks at Russian coking coal and nickel assets
Indian sources claim that India's Steel Authority of India (SAIL), and NMDC Ltd are looking to acquire coking coal assets in Russia, as New Delhi tries to secure critical raw materials. Three sources with knowledge of the situation said that India, the second largest producer of crude iron and steel in the world, sent a delegation to Russia for preliminary discussions with government officials and executives from the industry last month. The talks were confidential, so they wanted to remain anonymous. Sources said that both SAIL and NMDC were exploring the sourcing of raw material and in talks with Russia. Two Indian sources and one Russian source have said that India is also looking to increase its nickel imports from Russia. The two Indian sources claim that the first talks between both sides took place in New Delhi, India in April. India's Steel Ministry, NMDC and?SAIL did not respond to emails asking for comment on the talks with Russia regarding mineral assets and raw material. The Russian energy ministry didn't immediately reply to questions. India imports nickel from China and Japan as well as the United States and Norway, but only in very small quantities. Nickel is essential to India's supply chain for electric vehicles, particularly batteries. New Delhi wants electric vehicles to represent 30% of cars by 2030 and 80% for two-wheelers, up from 6% and 10% now. It is also used to make stainless steel. India wants to ensure that it has access to key raw materials as it increases its steel production and accelerates its transition to cleaner energies. The government of India designated coking coal as a critical mineral and strategic in January on the basis?of India’s import dependency. The company also said that it wanted to ensure stable supplies of other raw materials, such as cobalt, lithium and rare earths. India gets more than half of its coking coal from Australia, with the remainder coming from Russia and the United States. NMDC has been evaluating coking coal assets overseas for a while. The miner's chairman stated last year that it was looking at opportunities in Australia and Indonesia. (Reporting from Neha Arora, New Delhi; Anastasia Lyrchikova, Moscow; editing by Mayank Bhhardwaj and Clarence Fernandez).
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Gold prices rise on lower oil prices; inflation and rate outlook are in focus
Gold prices firmed up on Tuesday. They were boosted by lower oil prices after a fragile truce between Israel and Iran. However, inflation and interest rate hikes risks also dominated the discussion. As of 0602 GMT, spot gold was up 0.4% to $4,345.71 an ounce. The previous session saw bullion reach its lowest level in over two months. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were up by 0.2% to $4,370.80. Tim Waterer said that the slight ease in tensions between Israel and Iran had a positive impact on gold prices. Iran and Israel announced on Monday that they had stopped attacking each other after an appeal by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, Tehran warned that it would resume hostilities should Israel continue to hit Hezbollah. Prices of oil fell, wiping out most of the gains made on Monday. Gold is not a yielding metal, but it can be affected by higher interest rates. Goldman Sachs expects that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current level through 2026, and defer rate cuts until after 2027. They cite stronger economic growth and employment. According to the CME FedWatch, traders are pricing in a probability of more than 70% that a U.S. interest rate increase will occur by December. Investors will be watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index data for May, which is due on Wednesday. This will help them gauge?the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Waterer stated that a return to $5.500 gold is still possible by the end of the year, largely due to central bank demand. However, it would require a change in the oil prices, bond yields, and dollar, all of which need to be lower. Silver spot rose by 0.4%, to $68.45 an ounce. Platinum rose by 0.3%, to $1759.74. Palladium increased 1.5%, to $1223.44. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru. Sherry Jacob Phillips, Eileen Soreng and Subhranshu sahu)
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What is the ROI of automated for the people? AI as a public utility: Mike Dolan
Left-leaning U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, a Democrat, and Republican President Donald Trump share a surprising belief: The U.S. Government should invest in AI companies so that the public can benefit. Nationalization is back in style, and turning AI companies into quasi-utilities could no longer be an 'idle dream. Investors are giddy over the upcoming share sales of the AI boom's biggest names, OpenAI, and Anthropic. However, the government is worried about the potential seismic shifts in the economy and the society that could result from the rapid automation?of white-collar and blue-collar work. In an op-ed in the New York Times published on Monday, Sanders advocated that?the government take 50% of the shares in large AI companies. Vermont's independent senator said he intends to introduce legislation to create a sovereign fund to hold these stakes. He said that the fund would allow the public to have a say in the future of technology, and it would also secure a portion of the trillions dollars in profits for those workers who are most affected. Historically, this idea would have been a test balloon by a fiery politician. It was meant to spark debate, but little more, as the free market and private enterprise drowned out its message. Trump and perhaps even the CEOs of AI companies may think along the same lines. Last Thursday, the digital news outlet NOTUS reported that senior U.S. government officials had held a preliminary discussion with major AI firms about the possibility of the government buying shares in their companies. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was present at the talks. The focus of the discussions was to have the companies voluntarily cede their shares to the government. The report stated that the returns on investment would be used for public purposes, and perhaps even dividends paid to American households. Trump appeared to be on board by Friday. He told reporters on Air Force One that the plan was "very interesting" because it resembled a partnership between him and the American people. "We'll investigate that." In relation to the Sanders idea, he also said that he had been considering government investments in AI companies since over a year. "In terms of economics, Trump and Sanders are not that different." If you thought this was just a bunch of feel-good bluster then the tactic has already become a reality. An administration is pushing for?an unusually large role within the corporate sector. Last year, it bought a 10% stake of the U.S. chipmaker Intel, and stakes in rare-earth companies. It also acquired stakes in IBM, and a few other quantum computing firms. It is still unclear if?any? of this would fit into Trump's executive orders last year regarding the creation of a sovereign investment fund. The prospect of AI stakes now is not a fantasy. Fourth Wave of Nationalization It is not clear whether this should be a source of encouragement or fear for potential investors. Intel's shares have not been damaged by the government stake. Intel's stock has quadrupled since the government took a 10% stake in August last year. Washington's investment of $10 billion is now worth $50 billion. Some people may say that the government's stake in these companies makes them too large to fail, and highlights their success. Others will see the risk in the opposite direction: that state ownership discourages private capital, politicizes AI Governance and leaves taxpayers vulnerable if public investment underperforms. Questions remain, however, about the influence a government investor could have. It may be as a minority shareholder or by increasing its stake with time in order to gain greater control. Trump said to Fortune magazine last month that he "should have requested more" from Intel. Sanders' plan is ambitious. Could they become state-run utilities if AI and quantum computing companies are deemed vital to national security and economic growth? Sanders and OpenAI’s Altman both insist that AI is the sum of human experience. Artificial intelligence wasn't created in a vacuum. Sanders wrote that the data and language used by generative AI software didn't appear in Elon Musk or Sam Altman’s heads. "AI is based on our collective intellect: our songs, books, artwork, journalism and computer code. It also includes?scientific research. Videos, conversations, images, ideas, and videos spanning generations." In a world post-pandemic, where rivalry is more intense, there are greater supply chain concerns, tensions in trade, and national security issues, the government's control over strategic industries has grown much stronger. AI and quantum computing is increasingly seen as national resources in need of protection and investment. Nicholas Mulder, a Cornell professor, says we are now in the fourth wave of nationalizations since 1900. Since 2020, governments have taken half a billion dollars worth of assets around the world - the largest surge in nationalizations since the 1970s. The 'push' for governments to invest in tech companies that are growing fast may become panicky beyond America's borders. This could lead to a rush of investment in regional tech eco-systems, which would not have been necessary in a more globalized world. Ken Rogoff, former IMF chief economist, wrote in a recent article that governments who fail to secure a position in the AI supply chains may find themselves facing mass job displacement and without the state's ability to control the social or political consequences. He warned that "no one knows how such a world will look, or even how to prevent it from falling apart." This uncertainty could be enough for governments to move from regulating AI towards owning a part of it. The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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China's May soy imports surpass expectations due to strong Brazil supply and faster clearance
China's imports of soybeans in May fell by 15.3% from the same month a year ago, but they were still the third highest volume ever recorded for a single month. This exceeded analysts' expectations, as South American supplies peaked and port logistics improved. The General Administration of Customs reported?on?Tuesday that total imports were 11.79 million tons, a decrease from 13.92 millions a year ago. Sublime China Information analyst Wang Wenshen said that May soybean imports were 11 million metric tonnes higher than expected. Wang stated that "given the fact that April imports are relatively low, a part of the May volume is likely to reflect cargoes which were delayed in April due?to slower customs clearance rather than an increase driven by underlying demand." Analysts and traders said that the time it takes to clear soybeans through customs has improved from 25 days to 10-14 days. The data shows that between January and May, arrivals of soybeans at the world's largest buyer were 36.94 millions tons. This is down 0.4% compared to 37.11million tons a year ago. Liu Jinlu is an agricultural researcher with 'Guoyuan Futures. He said that the arrivals of soybeans during the period between June and August are expected to average between 10 and 11 millions tons per month, indicating ample supplies for?the second quarter and third quarter. Brazil, the world's top soybean producer, exported 14.83 millions tons of beans in May. This is up from 14.10million tons a year earlier, according to Brazilian Government data. China is expected to be the main exporter. The traders are also looking for signs that China is re-demanding?U.S. soybeans. After Beijing agreed to expand agricultural trade in mid-May, Washington and Beijing held talks. In recent weeks, the absence of significant Chinese purchases following the meeting has put pressure on Chicago soybean futures. Reporting by Ella Cao, Lewis Jackson and SonaliPaul; Editing by Jacqueline Wong & SonaliPaul
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Mideast tensions and tight LME stock counter China's worries about demand. Copper prices remain stable
The copper price was little changed Tuesday, as the?support of dwindling London Metal Exchange inventory offset the?pressures from Middle East tensions and high oil prices. Benchmark three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange were down 0.22% by 0300 GMT, at $13,585.5 per metric ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 0.02% to 104,090 Yuan ($15,356.58) a ton. The London Metal Exchange has seen a decline in stocks, which is causing traders to shift their metals?towards the United States before the U.S. announces its decision on tariffs on copper imports at the end of June. Data released by China, the world's largest copper consumer, showed that imports of unwrought metal have declined significantly this year. This has capped prices. China imported 2,01 million tons of copper unwrought and copper products in the first five months of 2026. This is 7% less than a year ago. The Yangshan Copper Premium On Monday, the price of copper, which reflects the demand for imported metal, was at $64 per ton, its lowest level since April 28. High oil prices, conflict in the Middle East and concerns about the growth of the industry have put pressure on industrial metals. After a volatile weekend, when an exchange of fire occurred between Israel and Iran, oil prices were relatively calm on Tuesday. Aluminium fell by 0.31% on the LME, while zinc dropped 0.27%. Lead lost?0.38%. Nickel shed 0.77%. Tin declined by 0.95%. On the SHFE, aluminium fell by 0.37%. Zinc dipped by 0.24%. Lead dropped 1.86%. Nickel declined 2.11%. Tin shed 1.76%.
China's aluminum exports surged in the month of May, as Iran war tightens supply
China's aluminum exports surged during a month in May, according to official data released on Tuesday. This was due to disruptions of shipment and production due to the Iran war, which kept global supplies tight.
Exports of China's unwrought aluminum and products rose 5.68% to 632,000 tons in May.
Customs data shows that in the first five month of 2026, exports of unwrought aluminum and products grew by?10.4%, to 2,69 million tonnes.
Exports in May were higher than April's already strong levels - the highest for at least a full year - and extended gains since the start of the war.
The conflict caused damage to two of the biggest aluminium plants in the Gulf region. This accounts for about 8% of global output. It also effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, the Gulf region's primary aluminium production fell in April. It was the lowest in over a decade with 330,000 tons. It was 35% less than the same month of 2025.
IAI reported that global primary production fell 2.1% on an annual basis to 5.92 millions tons but that estimated Chinese 'production' rose by?1.5%, to 3.68million tons.
China's exports - which are included in a separate category of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, but not stranded aluminium wire - increased in April. After the rally, traders have been trying to find a way to use this 'product, which is normally used for power transmission and distribution, in order to export aluminium.
(source: Reuters)