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Norsk Hydro flags downstream weakness, shares fall

Norsk Hydro, an aluminium producer, highlighted the continued weakness in downstream markets when it announced fourth-quarter core earnings that exceeded market expectations. This sent its shares down by 6% on Friday.

Hydro?faces a changing outlook?as EU prepares?carbon?costs for aluminium imports. This could favor its lower-emissions metal, even though rising global supply, and falling production cost, point to a more balanced market.

In the period October-December, adjusted earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization came to 5.59 billion Norwegian crowns (585.23 millions)?down from 7.7 a year ago.

According to a consensus compiled by the company, analysts had on average expected to see a core profit of 5.2 billion crowns.

WHITENING DOWNSTREAM TRENDS

JPMorgan analysts and RBC analysts stated that the stronger 'upstream performance' and cash generation in the company’s first quarter guidance were partially offset by weaker?downstream trends. This suggests limited scope for a broad?earnings upgrade near term.

The main reason for the improvement in its results was a higher metal price and stable upstream production, despite a stronger Norwegian currency.

Performance weakened further downstream. Extrusion lost money due to lower margins and volume, and metal markets were also negatively impacted by low trading activity and inventory effect.

Alumina prices were 55% lower in the first quarter of this year than they were a year ago, as increased supplies from China drove prices closer to their production costs.

CEO Eivind 'Kallevik said that Hydro had booked 42% of the first-quarter volumes of primary aluminium at a premium of $478 per ton. The overall quarterly average is expected to be between $380 and $430.

Kallevik stated that U.S. Midwest Premiums -- an important component of aluminum pricing -- would decline if import tariffs are?reduced.

The company sold its first volumes of low-carbon aluminum in the United States. The premiums are comparable to those in Europe, which shows that consumers are willing to pay a little more for cleaner metal.

In an analyst call, Kallevik stated that extrusion orders are usually short-term. Demand is dependent on the broader economy, and it's "too soon to draw conclusions" about recovery in second half. $1 = 9.5518 Norwegian crowns (Reporting and editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak, Matt Scuffham).

(source: Reuters)