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Stocks of the Russian rouble fall as US-Russian talks fail to yield a breakthrough on Ukraine
The Russian rouble fell and the stocks in Russia dropped on Wednesday, after late-night talks at the Kremlin between President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump's top representatives failed to produce a breakthrough regarding a solution to end Ukraine's war. The talks between Putin, Steve Witkoff (Trump's special representative) and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in law, went well past midnight. Yuri Ushakov said that "compromises had not been reached" after the talks. The rouble fell 0.6% against the dollar at 0820 GMT and was down 0.5% against the Chinese Yuan at 11,01 on the Moscow Exchange where it is most traded. The main index of the Moscow Exchange was down by 1.6%, with Gazprom down 2%, Sberbank down 1.5% and Rosneft down 1,7%. Analysts at Alfa Bank said that the flagship stock market indicator has been declining due to the fact that there have not been any progress in Ukraine negotiations and reports of a lack of compromise. Analysts consider the Russian stock exchange, which has most of its blue-chip companies under Western sanctions as being undervalued. They call the main beneficiaries of the Ukraine peace talks, "peace coin". In February, the U.S. and Russia talks began. This initially lifted the thin Russian market driven by domestic funds after Western funds had left Russia. However, since then, hopes of a rapid end to the conflict have slowly faded. There is less hope. Fewer illusions. How much does hope cost? It's not so small. Yevgeny KOGAN, an economist, said that the market could lose between 8-10% as a result of the general disappointment. (Reporting and editing by Guy Faulconbridge/Andrew Osborn; Gleb Bryanski, Gleb)
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Swiss inflation unexpectedly drops to zero in November
Official data released on Wednesday showed that the annual inflation rate in Switzerland unexpectedly fell by a tenth of a percent point to zero. This was a slight undershoot from expectations. A poll of analysts found that the consensus was that last month's inflation rate would be unchanged, at 0.1%. The Federal Statistics Office published data that showed the Swiss Consumer Price Index fell by 0.2% compared to the previous month. This was in line with poll predictions. According to the office, this was due to a number of factors, including lower prices on hotels, package holidays, new cars, and certain vegetables. The office said that prices for housing, heating oil, and air travel rose. The data comes just a little over a week ahead of the Swiss National Bank's next rate setting decision. SNB's benchmark is zero at the moment, and it has stated that they expect inflation to gradually increase next year. The market expects the SNB to leave its benchmark rate unchanged in the coming week. The SNB targets a rate of inflation between 0 and 2 percent. (Writing and editing by Dave Graham)
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Iron ore prices ease amid policy meetings and soft fundamentals
The price of iron ore futures fell slightly on Wednesday due to weaker demand signals. Traders were also awaiting the outcome of upcoming Chinese economic meetings for any guidance regarding growth targets that could be supportive. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was down 0.19% at 799.5 Yuan ($113.19). As of 0724 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 0.24% at $104.15 per ton. Atilla Winnel, Singapore-based Navigate Commodities managing director, explained that a broader macro trade drives speculation in China-centric futures for industrial commodities. Investors await signals from the Central Economic Work Conference, which sets the agenda for the year ahead, and the Politburo meeting in December on the growth targets. Widnell said that some traders were positioning themselves ahead of these meetings to take advantage of any rally. However, we do not expect positive announcements from these meetings regarding steel-intensive consumption. According to market intelligence provider Shanghai Metals Markets, iron ore concentrate prices are expected to be stable in the short term in Tangshan. SMM said that hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, has been on a downward trajectory. Weakening fundamentals are putting pressure on the ore price, but sentiment remains positive in advance of important policy meetings. According to broker Galaxy Futures, due to the recent tightening of environmental inspections, it is expected that pig iron production will continue to fall this week. This puts pressure on raw materials. According to the latest monthly outlook of Mysteel, the chief analyst Wang Jianhua, the prices of Chinese steel are still expected to rise in December due to the improvement in the macroeconomic climate and the recovery in the market fundamentals. Coke and coking coal were both up, but coking coal was down by 2.19%. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also showed mixed results. Hot-rolled coils and wire rods both fell by 0.21%, but rebar rose 0.06%. Stainless steel also grew 0.2%. $ 1 = 7.0632 Chinese yuan (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Eileen Soreng).
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The restructuring costs of Thyssenkrupp Steel Head are estimated at hundreds of millions euros
Marie Jaroni is the head of Thyssenkrupp’s steel division. She estimates that a restructuring agreement, which will result in the loss or outsourcing of 11,000 jobs, will cost the company three digit million euro, according to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe said this week it had reached an agreement with the IG Metall to reduce or outsource 40 percent of its workforce. It will also reduce production to a level of shipping of 8,7 million to 9,0 million tons from 11.5 millions at present. The restructuring costs us about a million euros. In an interview published Wednesday, Jaroni stated that the exact amount will depend on how many employees take up each offer. She told the newspaper that this will be a good investment, as the company's personnel costs will permanently fall, and will be "a three-digit amount less per year than they are today." Thyssenkrupp has been trying to sell its steel business for many years. In September, India's Jindal Steel International made an indicative offer for TKSE. Jindal Steel has been conducting detailed due diligence in order to determine whether it should make a formal, binding offer to TKSE. TKSE is Germany's biggest steelmaker and had sales of 10,7 billion euros (12.46 billion dollars) last year.
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Rate cut bets and gold hold steady in the face of US data
The price of gold was unchanged at the end of Asia trading on Wednesday, as investors awaited the release of a number of U.S. economic data that will determine the direction of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. Meanwhile, silver reached a new record high. As of 0647 GMT spot gold was unchanged at $4,205.78 an ounce after falling by more than 1% the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were up 0.4% to $4,237.20 an ounce. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said: "I believe buyers are still interested in gold due to the interest rate outlook. However they may be waiting for further evidence of an economic slowdown that may signal the Fed a possible rate cut next month." Investors will be focusing on the data due this week, which includes the November ADP Employment figures, released on Wednesday, and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, due Friday. Waterer said that prices are generally stable, as there are few new catalysts, and the higher liquidity during European and U.S. sessions usually cools some of the enthusiasm in early Asia session. According to CME's FedWatch, U.S. rate derivatives now indicate an 88% probability of a rate reduction next week. This is up from 85% one week ago. Recent U.S. economic data indicating a slight slowdown in the economy has reinforced expectations for a rate reduction at the Fed meeting on December 9-10. Major brokerages have also predicted policy easing. Gold that does not yield tends to do well in an environment of low interest rates. Silver dropped 1% to 57.87/oz, after reaching a new session high of 58.94 earlier. Silver import tariffs are a concern, as is the tightness of the London spot market. Recently, the inventory data from China have also dropped. These factors still support silver prices, said Soni Kumari a commodity analyst with ANZ. Palladium fell 1%, while platinum rose 0.8%, to $1.651.15. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, Harikrishnan Nair and Janane Venkatraman)
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Stocks hold steady despite bitcoin's slide and global bonds' halt
The global shares are on a more stable footing today, thanks to an overnight rebound in Wall Street and the abating of a short selloff on bond markets and cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has regained the $90k level and reached a new two-week high, while Nasdaq futures and S&P500 futures each rose by 0.2%. The EuroStoxx 50 futures rose 0.3%, while the FTSE futures gained 0.1%. After a turbulent start to the week in which expectations of an imminent rate hike in Japan caused a global sell-off in bonds and a steep decline in cryptocurrency, stocks were caught up in the rush away from risky assets. The prospect of falling rates differentials between Japan and the U.S. has resurfaced carry trade concerns and led to the unwinding or leveraged positions, according to Kerry Craig, global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "Rightly, or wrongly, there was a time when the performance in crypto was used as a measure for risk sentiment. But we also know that market conditions are sensitive to liquidity." The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.5% in Japan, while MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.12%. This was due to losses on Chinese markets. China's CSI300 index of blue-chip stocks fell 0.26%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.2%. China's slowing growth in services added to concerns about an economy struggling with a long property slump. On Wednesday, the Japanese government bond (JGB) market was more orderly, but they still faced downward pressure from investors who were betting on a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in late this month. The yield on the 10-year JGB hit its highest level since June 2008, at 1.885%. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year JGBs rose by one basis point to 1,015%. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury fell 1.6 basis points to 3,500%. The benchmark 10-year yield remained steady at 4,081%. DOVISH FED OUTLOOK: Analysts said that, given the lack of significant market catalysts, the focus has shifted to the Federal Reserve's expected rate reduction next week. This has improved the market sentiment. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst at IG. He said: "I can't think of any reason (equities will not be supported) into the FOMC's rate cut next Monday. And I believe then, you'll start to hit a really nice sweet spot mid-December, when equity markets rally." December is historically a good month to invest in stocks. Investors also priced in a more dovish Fed perspective, on the belief that White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett - reportedly the frontrunner for the next Fed chair - would deliver further rates cuts after he succeeds Jerome Powell. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Tuesday that he will announce his Fed nominee in early 2019. He has also narrowed down the list of candidates to just one. The dollar has been on the backfoot, and the euro is now 0.14% higher at $1.1642. The dollar also fell 0.14% to 155.66 yen, while sterling rose 0.16% at $1.3236. Hassett is dovish in his monetary policy, and closely aligned to President Trump. His appointment could therefore damage the FOMC's perception of independence, which is a negative for USD," said Kristina Clifton, senior currency analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Oil prices fell in commodities after falling the previous session as markets weighed waning Russia-Ukraine hopes for peace against fears of an oversupply. Brent crude futures rose by 0.11%, to $62.52 per barrel. U.S. crude climbed 0.14%, to $58,72 a barrel. Spot gold was unchanged at $4,206.89 per ounce.
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JSW Steel is India's top iron ore buyer, with imports from January to October at a six-year-high.
Analysts and trade officials reported that India's imports of iron ore reached a six-year-high this year, as steel mills increased overseas purchases in order to meet shortages of ore of high quality and to take advantage of the lower global prices of steelmaking raw materials. Lalit Ladkat is a senior analyst with the London-based CRU Group. He said that iron ore imports have more than doubled in the first ten months of 2025 compared to a year ago. Analysts and officials have said that between January and October JSW Steel - the country's largest steelmaker in terms of capacity - was the number one buyer of iron ore overseas. Ladkat reported that the average imports for 2019-2024 was 4.3 million tons per year. In 2025, the demand for higher-grade ore was greater than the domestic production, and this was a major concern, Ladkat added. He also said that the slowdown in supply growth could be due to delays in the production of mines already sold at auction. Last month, the Ministry of Steel's top civil servant ruled out a shortage of iron ore. According to analysts and a senior government official, the low import prices as well as the ease of importing steel for plants located near ports such JSW Steel in Maharashtra (western state), helped boost shipments. India imports iron ore mostly from Brazil, Oman, and Australia. Last month, Vale CEO Gustavo Pimenta said that the Brazilian miner is ready to meet the rising demand for iron ore from India. India could double its steel output by the end decade. According to BigMint, the commodities consultancy, this year's production was lower due to heavy rain in Odisha. This state accounts for almost 55% of India’s total iron ore production. BigMint, which is referring to the fiscal period ending March 2026, said that "Imports could exceed 11-12 millions metric tons and remain high next year if domestic production does not improve or captive sourcing doesn't improve." According to data from the government, India's iron ore production, which is also the second largest crude steel producer in world, increased to 289 millions metric tonnes in fiscal 2025. This was up from 277million metric tones a year before. The government has urged steel companies to purchase iron ore mining operations overseas. However, it is concerned about the slow progress of greenfield mines. (Reporting from New Delhi by Neha arora and Manvi pant in Bengaluru, editing by Mayank bhardwaj & Janane Venkatraman).
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Risk-on, risk-off, risk-on
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. In the last month, there have been several instances where a rally in the market was suddenly halted due to sudden risk aversion. Sometimes this happened without any obvious cause. Shortly afterward, an upswing followed. Wednesday was another example of this. After a Monday drubbing, global stocks rose and bitcoin reclaimed its $90,000. It was at its highest level in almost two weeks. The European markets were also poised for a steady opening, as investors waited for the remarks of European Central Bank (ECB), President Christine Lagarde to be made later in the day. This will provide clues about the central bank’s rate. View our website for more information. . Analysts say that the selloff of stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies on Monday, sparked in part by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuoueda's hawkish remarks, could have been a one-off event. In the past, December was a good month in terms of equity markets. Risk is once again on the menu as investors prepare for a U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting next week. A 25-basis point cut has now been priced in at 85%. The markets are gradually pricing in a more doveish outlook for future U.S. interest rate paths, with nearly ninety basis points of easing anticipated by the end 2026. This is due to the possibility that White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett will take over the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's role next year. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he will announce his nominee in early 2019. He has also narrowed down the list of candidates to just one. The ADP national employment data due later today is expected to show that 10,000 jobs were created in November, down on October's total of 42,000. This is a sign of the increasing slack within the labour market in the largest economy in the world. The Australian dollar rose on Wednesday after figures showed that the economy grew faster than it had in the past two years. This was due to the fact that the broad-based growth indicated little room for further policy easing. The Indian rupee also fell below the 90-per-dollar psychologically significant mark as a result of weak trade flows and concerns about the absence of a deal with Washington. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane talk - U.S. ADP employment report (November) - France (November) - Germany, UK, and France services PMI
Copper prices rise on concerns about supply; Fed rate decision pending
The copper price rose on Wednesday, hovering near the highs set earlier this week. Supply concerns fueled the overall bullishness surrounding the metal. Meanwhile, the market focused its attention on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement next week.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract reversed initial session losses and closed daytime trading at 89210 yuan per metric ton ($12,630.79), extending gains for the eighth consecutive session.
Shanghai copper was a close follower of the benchmark London three-month copper, which was lowered from its all-time-high on account of a lower appetite for risk and profit-taking.
London copper reversed Tuesday’s losses, rising 0.93% at $11,249 per ton by 0705 GMT.
The upward trend was supported by optimism over a second rate cut from the U.S. Central Bank on December 10.
A 25-bps cut has already been priced into the market despite limited economic data being available due to the 43 day U.S. Government shutdown.
Analysts at Sucden Financial warned that policymakers risked "creating an unnecessary market disruption" if they resisted the expectations.
Base metals from Shanghai and London are combined.
Aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin all rose in value.
$1 = 7.0629 Chinese yuan renminbi $1 = 7.0629 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson and Ronojoy Mazumdar).
(source: Reuters)