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Copper prices rise ahead of National Holiday due to China demand

The price of copper rose on Tuesday due to a combination of factors: a strong yuan, a high demand in China, which is the world's largest consumer, ahead of its holiday in May, and concerns over a tight supply of copper.

The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.9% at $9,458.50 a metric ton by 1019 GMT. However, it failed to overcome the resistance from its 50-day average of $9489.

Arthur Parish, analyst at SP Angel, said: "We're seeing a trend in China of restocking ahead of the May Day holiday." The mainland China market will close on May 1 to celebrate a five-day Labour Day break.

Yangshan Copper Premium The price of copper, which is a measure of the demand for imported copper into China, reached its highest level since December 2023 at $93 per tonne.

This premium has increased by 6% since last Friday when official data revealed a weekly decline of 32% in copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

Alastair Munro is a senior base metals analyst at Marex. He said that the SHFE data for Wednesday will show a further decline. This topic, he added, would be crucial in May.

Parish stated that "the restocking requirements were made worse after stocks were redirected to the U.S. from Asia amid the tariff-driven increase in COMEX premiums."

Copper stocks in COMEX owned warehouses The Comex premium to the LME benchmark is unusually high at $1,443 per tonne, as Washington continues to investigate possible new U.S. Copper Import Tariffs.

Spread between LME Cash Copper and the Three-Month Contract The premium was increased to $30 per ton, up from $16.5 just a week earlier. This indicates that the LME system is also experiencing a tightening of nearby supplies. According to the International Copper Study Group, the surplus on the global copper markets is expected to grow this year from 138,000 tons to 289,000 tons, and will continue next year. The Chinese yuan reached a new one-month high in relation to the dollar on February 2, providing additional support for Chinese purchasing activity.

Other London metals saw aluminium rise 1.3% to $2.465 per ton, while zinc rose 1.2% to 2.663, lead increased 0.2% to 1.970, and tin rose 0.5% to 32,155. Nickel fell 0.1% to 15.595. (Reporting and editing by Freya Whiworth; Polina Devitt)

(source: Reuters)