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Wall Street is mixed at the start of the year; Treasury yields are moving higher

The dollar strengthened on Friday, 2026's first trading day, as U.S. Treasury rates rose and U.S. stock prices oscillated.

The S&P 500, Dow, and other major U.S. indexes sawsawed throughout the session. However, both the Dow and S&P 500 posted gains to snap their four-day loss streaks. The Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology and related megastocks, posted a nominal decline.

The three indexes all registered losses during the week-long holiday.

Jed Ellerbroek is the portfolio manager of Argent Capital, St. Louis. He said that today was a holiday day with lower volumes and fewer people engaged in trading. "Value outperforms growth, AI infrastructure is on the rise, and many of the stocks that are doing well, in particular in utilities and industrials, but also in energy, are AI beneficiary shares."

Stocks gained in 2025 despite tariff wars, the longest U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions and threats to central banks' independence.

The Fed's Year Ahead Markets will be focused on monetary policies in the coming year, as Jerome Powell nears the end of his tenure at the Federal Reserve and the release of economic data returns to its more regular and recent schedule following the shutdown of the federal governments. The central bank's path could be determined by a series of delayed indicators that are due to come out in the next few days.

Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Atlanta said that maintaining Fed independence was one of the most important things. "Even though (U.S. president Donald) Trump appointed the newest members and they are more dovish they want to give at least the appearance that the Fed is independent. Once you lose this, you can be in a lot of trouble."

Ellerbroek, however, disagrees. He says that President Trump "has made it clear that the person he will appoint as chair is going to be someone who is willing and able to follow his direction, and that he wants rates to be significantly lower than what they are today." Ellerbroek also adds that "the excitement of lower rates is tangible in the short term."

The extent to which markets begin to reap the benefits of massive investments in nascent artificial-intelligence technology will also likely receive scrutiny ?in the year ahead.

In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine and U.S. Congress midterm elections in this fall, there will also be ongoing tensions throughout the Middle East.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 319.10 or 0.66% to 48,382.39; the S&P 500 gained 12.97 or 0.19% to 6,858.47; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 6.36 or 0.03% to 23,235.63.

European shares started the year with record highs. Technology and defense stocks were a major contributor. Investors watched the STOXX 600, as it approached its 600-point milestone. The blue-chip FTSE 100 in London has reached the 10,000-point symbolic mark for the very first time.

The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 4.41 points or 0.4% to 1,019.15.

The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.67% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 Index?rose 16,23 points or 0.69%.

Emerging market stocks increased 24.02 points or 1.71% to 1,429.34. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed up by 1.75% to 735.19. Japan's Nikkei dropped 187.44, or 0.37% to 50,339.48.

GOLD, SILVER PAUSE PRESS "PAUSE"

After a wave of profit-taking, gold and silver have only moderately recovered their gains from the previous year.

The 2025 gold price rise was the largest in 46 years. Silver and platinum also saw their biggest gains ever. This was due to a combination of factors, including Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and ETF flows.

Spot gold increased by 0.36%, to $4,329.57 per ounce. Spot silver rose by 1.6%, to $72.39 an ounce. Dollar rose after the dollar's biggest annual drop in eight-years.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, and the euro, increased 0.19%, reaching 98.43. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.21%, at $1.172.

The dollar gained 0.11% against the Japanese yen to reach 156.84.

Bitcoin gained 1.69%, reaching $89,789.87. Ethereum gained 4.5% to $3.121.09.

The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds rose as markets awaited the employment data that will be released next week to get a sense of the economy's health heading into the New Year.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year notes in the U.S. The yield on 10-year notes increased 3.8 basis points from late Wednesday to 4.191%.

The 30-year bond rate rose by 3.8 basis points, from 4.83% at the end of Wednesday.

The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve), rose by 0.6 basis points, to 3,475% from 3.469%, late Wednesday.

Investors weighed geopolitical risk against concerns about oversupply, and oil prices eased.

Brent crude settled at $60.75 a barrel, a 0.16% drop on the day. U.S. crude fell 0.17% and closed at $57.32 - a 0.17% decline.

(source: Reuters)