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India court rejects request to halt Adani's F1 track and real estate deal
India's highest court rejected a billionaire Anil. Agarwal's. Vedanta plea on Monday to halt the acquisition of a bankrupt real. estate giant by the. Adani group, which included a $4 billion collection of prized assets. This includes India's one Formula One track. Agarwal Vedanta has filed a lawsuit against a lender's panel's decision to give assets from bankrupt Jaiprakash Associates' group to Gautam Adani. This will lead to a fight between billionaires over assets such as homes, cement plants, and India's only Formula One track. Vedanta’s appeal to the?Supreme Court? was denied as the judges stated that a lower court is more suited to hearing the concerns of Vedanta and the top courts does not have to intervene in the proceedings. Vedanta claims that its $1.8billion bid was superior, but the lender's panel decided in Adani’s favour as its $1.5billion bid had higher upfront payments. Adani's plans for real estate in Mumbai could be boosted by the?acquisition. This includes its other 'key' projects, such as Dharavi, one of Asia's biggest slums. Karan Adani Adani's eldest son said at a public event last month that "he is very personally engaged" in bringing F1 to India after 13 years. (Reporting and editing by Arpan chaturvedi)
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The Kremlin claims that the entire Middle East is on fire
The Kremlin said on Monday that the 'Iran War is escalating in both geography and economic impact. And that the entire Middle East region is "on fire" because of the U.S. attacks and Israeli attacks against the Islamic Republic. In an expletive-filled Easter Sunday social media post, U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to attack Iran's bridges and power plants on Tuesday, if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened. The Kremlin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters when asked about?Trump?s remarks that Russia had already seen them and that they preferred not to make a direct comment. Peskov stated, "We are aware that tensions in the region continue to rise." "In reality, the entire region is on fire." All of these are very dangerous and negative effects from the aggression against?Iran. The geography of the 'conflict' has grown, and we now know that there are very negative consequences for global economic growth. Reporting by Dmitry Antonov; Writing by Felix Light; Editing by Gleb Brianski/Guy Faulconbridge
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As Asia and Europe compete for supplies, US crude prices have reached record highs.
Industry sources say that spot premiums for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude are at all-time highs due to the fierce competition for oil supply between Asian and European refiners. This is in response to Middle Eastern oil flow disruptions caused by the Iran War. Europe is the biggest importer of U.S. oil, but the competition has increased as Asian buyers are searching for supplies from the Americas and Africa to Europe to replace Middle Eastern crude that cannot move through the Strait of Hormuz. Sources and analysts say that the increase in crude oil prices has increased costs for refiners and led to a 'widening of losses' on both continents. This puts severe pressure on firms, including state-owned companies, which are required by governments to continue producing fuel for their national security. In a note from April 3, Paola Rodriguez Masiu, Rystad's chief oil analyst, said that Asian refiners are aggressively bidding for "every barrel" in the Atlantic Basin, because they have been cut off from Middle Eastern supplies. 'EVERY DAY THERE'S A NEW ?PRICE' The premiums on WTI Midland crude for delivery to North Asia by very large crude carriers in July ranged from $30 to $40 per barrel, depending on the benchmark, traders reported. One trader put the premium at 34 dollars a barril over Dubai quotes, while another said it was $30 above Brent dated. Two other traders said that offers were closer to $40 a barron above the August ICE Brent base. These levels are higher than the premiums paid by Japanese refiners, including Taiyo Oil, for WTI crude in late March or early April. One of the traders stated that "every day, there is a new price", adding that Asian refiners suffer severe losses from the premiums. One trader suggested that refiners should reduce crude runs in order to buy?products, if any?are available. The spot premiums increased after the WTI monthly spread reached its largest backwardation Thursday. Backwardation is when the current price of a product is higher than that in future months. The demand for U.S. Gulf Coast tankers has also increased due to the wider discounts offered on U.S. Crude Oil compared with the global benchmark Brent. This has reduced vessel availability and pushed up freight rates. On Thursday, the bids for WTI Midland delivered to Europe reached a record high of nearly $15 per barrel compared to Brent dated. According to Rodriguez-Masiu, "At the current physical differentials as well as freight rates, European refiners who buy spot crude cannot make any money by running these barrels through their system."
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Dollar gains as gold falls due to raging Iran conflict and strong US job data
As markets awaited the U.S. President's remarks, gold prices fell on Monday. A stronger U.S. Dollar, boosted by a "strong" U.S. employment report, dampened bets for rate cuts. Donald Trump is facing an escalating conflict between Iran and the United States. Gold spot fell 0.4% at $4,658.90 an ounce as of 0706 GMT. U.S. gold for April delivery rose by 0.1% to $4684.30. Kelvin Wong is a senior analyst at OANDA. He said that markets are looking for a second so-called headline threat to be revealed later. Trump also threatened to "rain hell" on Tehran, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday. However, recent U.S. Intelligence assessments indicate that Iran will be unlikely to reopen this 'crucial waterway for oil shipping any time soon. Investors also considered an Axios article that stated that the U.S. and Iran, along with a group mediators, are discussing the possibility of a 45-day truce that could pave a way for the permanent end of the war. Brent oil prices rose as the war disrupted global energy supplies and fuelled inflation fears. Gold is often viewed as a hedge to inflation. However, high interest rates can dampen the demand for this non-yielding investment. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury and the dollar index both rose, boosted by Friday's data showing that U.S. payrolls for non-farm workers in March increased to the highest level since December 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that "the latest robust NFP has reinforced hawkish Central Bank nerves while persistent oil-driven fears of inflation continue to crowd out Gold's traditional "safe-haven" sparkle." The odds of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate reduction this year are almost non-existent, as compared to the two cuts that were expected before the Iran War began. Palladium rose 0.7%, while spot silver dropped 0.9%. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Pablo Sinha; Additional reporting by Swati verma; Editing and production by Sumana Nandy, Mrigank Dhaniwala).
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Trump's threats to strike Iranian infrastructure has put the markets on edge
Oil prices rose on Monday, while stocks were mixed after U.S. president Donald Trump warned of 'hell' for Iran if it did not reopen?the Strait of Hormuz within his self-imposed date. Trump's repeated threat to destroy civil infrastructure, including power plants and a bridge, if the crucial waterway isn't open by Tuesday has put traders on alert for retaliatory attacks from Iran against targets in the Gulf States. S&P 500 e-minis futures were volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses as countries in the region celebrated Easter Monday and Tomb Sweeping Day. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.4%. The Nikkei rose by 0.6% while South Korea's Kospi grew 1.4%. Investors gained confidence when Axios reported the U.S. and Iran are negotiating the terms of a possible 45-day truce that could lead to an end permanent to the war. The report cited four U.S. sources, Israelis and regional sources who were privy to the talks. Brent crude futures rose 1.2%, to $110.29 per barrel on the back of a potential disruption in supply. Sim Moh Siong is a currency strategist with OCBC Singapore. He said that the markets were "clearly nervous". He added, "We have seen deadlines being extended, and it is difficult to know to what extent the current deadline will be adhered to or pushed back." The weekend saw a resurgence of the threat to blow up Iranian bridges and power plants. The markets were interested in the agreement reached on Sunday between members of OPEC+ to increase their output quotas for May by 206,000 barrels a day. This is because several major oil producing countries behind the Strait of Hormuz suffered damage to oil production and transport infrastructure after the war began. Mark Matthews is the head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer, Singapore. He said: "It's puzzling that Asian equity markets have been performing so well despite the imminent threat of escalation of the war." He said that there are two plausible explanations. The first is that despite the bad news the market believes that the war is going to end soon. The second explanation is that, even if war continues, the negative effects will be offset by fiscal stimulus. The U.S. Jobs Report released on Friday showed that employment growth in March was higher than expected, with 178,000 more nonfarm payrolls, which is the largest increase in over a year. As people left the workforce, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The data will complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process at its next two-day meeting, ending on April 29, which is when it will decide the monetary policy. According to CME Group's Fedwatch, the swaps prices indicate that the market does not expect any moves from the U.S. Central Bank until September 2027. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength in relation to a basket six currencies, fell by 0.1% at 100.13. The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond in the United States?was up by 1.2 basis points to 4.3565%. Tokyo's yield on the Japanese government bond has set a new record for the 21st Century due to rising inflation fears. The yield on these notes increased by 4.5 basis points to 2.425%. This is the highest level since February 1999. The U.S. Dollar was unchanged at 159.615 Japanese yen. Gold fell 0.5% to $4653.82. Bitcoin was up 1.9% to $68,886.31, and ether rose 2.6% to 2,122.32. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Lincoln Feast, and Shri Navaratnam.
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Saudi Arabia raises Arab Light crude oil prices for Asia at record-high premium
Saudi Arabia set its official selling price for May Arab 'Light' crude oil to Asia a record $19.50 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark, a $17 increase from the previous months, according to a document on pricing reviewed by on Monday. The price of Middle 'East oil is now the most expensive in the world, as the U.S./Israel war against Iran has limited shipping through Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint accounts for about a fifth the world's supply. The exact date of a ceasefire or the resumption of oil exports through the Strait from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is still unknown. Middle East high-sulphur oil benchmark Dubai rose last month to almost $170 a barrel in trading on the S&P Global Platts Market On Close process. OPEC+ 'agreed to increase its 'oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels a day in May. This modest increase will largely be on paper, as OPEC+ key members cannot raise production because of the war. Below are Saudi prices for?Asia-Pacific in $/bbl compared to the Oman/Dubai average: April May Change Arabian Super -0.60 +16.40+17.00 Arab Heavy +0.60 +16.40+17.00
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Seoul: North Korea's distancing from Iran will leave the door open for US-North Korea talks
North Korea appears to be separating itself from its long-time partner Iran and carefully managing their public messages to preserve the chance of a 'new relationship with the United States. South Korean lawmakers claimed on Monday that the spy agency had told them that the 'war with Iran' was over. Seoul's National Intelligence Service said that North Korea has not sent any weapons or supplies to Iran since February 28. They also did not express public condolences for the death of the Supreme Leader,?Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed by air strikes. This was according to Park Sun-won, a lawmaker who attended the NIS's?closed-door meeting. Park, citing NIS, said that Pyongyang did not send a message of congratulations when Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei was chosen as the new Supreme Leader. The?NIS reported that while China and Russia have frequently released?statements about the conflict, North Korea has only made two toned down?statements. This is consistent with North Korea’s recent tendency to avoid criticism of U.S. president Donald Trump. This lawmaker stated that the NIS viewed this as a preparation for securing new diplomatic space following a May summit between Chinese president Xi Jinping, and Trump. The NIS told lawmakers that North Korea also faced significant economic strains related to the Middle East Crisis, including disruptions in the procurement of industrial supply, rising prices and an escalating exchange rate. The?NIS reported that North Korea also tried to secure Russian oil supply. Kim said that the U.S. could "get along well" with North Korea if it recognized its status as a nuke state and retracted its hostile policy. Park stated that the NIS believed Kim had made the remarks "in his own voice" as a deliberate message, to keep relations with Trump good and position Pyongyang in preparation for a new chapter in diplomatic relations once the Middle East conflict subsides. (Reporting and editing by Jack Kim, Joyce Lee)
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Gold falls as Iran war, robust US jobs data dim Fed rate-cut hopes
?Gold prices fell on ?Monday, pressured by a stronger ?dollar ?as elevated oil prices on the back of a protracted Iran war and stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data dampened hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold fell 0.5% per ounce to $4,652.89 by 0452 GMT. U.S. Gold futures for delivery in April held steady at $4,678.70. Many markets in Asia and Europe were closed on a holiday. The data released on Friday revealed that the U.S. payrolls increased by 178,000 in March, which is the highest since December 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The dollar index and 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield both rose, which pushed up the price of greenbacks. Brent oil prices rose as the U.S. - Israel war against Iran continued to disrupt global energy supply. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said: "The latest robust NFP print reinforced hawkish nerves of central banks, while persistent inflation fears fueled by oil continue to crowd gold's traditional safety-haven shine." U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened to "rain hell" on Tehran, if the country does not reach a deal by Tuesday and reopen?the Strait of Hormuz. Recent U.S. Intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is unlikely reopen this passage anytime soon. The rise in crude oil prices has stoked inflationary fears. Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against rising inflation. However, high interest rates have a tendency to reduce demand for this non-yielding investment. The traders have priced out any chance of a Fed interest rate cut in this year. Before the Iran War began, two rate cuts were expected this year. COMEX gold traders increased their net long positions by 1,098 contracts, to 93872 contracts, in the week ending March 31. Spot silver dropped 0.9% to $72.34 an ounce. Spot platinum fell 0.6% to 1,977.29 while palladium rose 0.3% to $1.500.25.
Instant View-Hefty Trump Tariffs Surprise Markets, Stocks Slide
U.S. president Donald Trump escalated the trade war by announcing on Wednesday that he would impose tariffs in return for duties imposed by other countries on U.S. products.
Trump told an audience in the White House Rose Garden that "it's our declaration" of independence. "We will set a minimum base tariff of 10%."
China's rate would be 34% while Japan and the European Union would pay 20% and 24% respectively.
S&P futures fell 3%, indicating that investors are expecting a big loss when Wall Street opens Thursday. Treasury yields and other stock markets fell as well, while the Chinese yuan hit a new low.
COMMENTS:
NIGEL GREEN is the CEO of DEVERE GROUP in Dubai, UAE
"This is what you do when you claim to be supercharging the global economic engine, but sabotage it. The global trade is experiencing a historic day.
Tariffs are simply taxes and the American consumer will be hit hard. Businesses freeze plans, stop hiring and invest when they don't know how the trade will be next quarter. This ripple effect reaches consumers. The recession begins with this chilling effect.
"The dollar is no longer the dominant currency. The credibility of the United States is at stake. Investors are nervous about the dollar, which is the world's reserve currency. "Trust is earned and lost easily."
SCOTT WREN SENIOR GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST WELLS FARGGO INVESTMENT INSITUTE, ST. LOUIS MISSOURI
"There aren't many surprises in this case. I'm a bit surprised that the amount is a bit less than we had anticipated.
We've always wanted to invest in the U.S. compared to other countries, and that won't change. We are overweighting midcaps and we like large caps. Our outlook on this pullback is positive, but not overly so. We're trying to get some exposure here. We are not trying to conceal. We don't wish to be defensive. We want to use stock price pullbacks as an opportunity to buy stocks to play what we perceive as a better second-half."
OLGA YANGOL MANAGING DIRECTOR HEAD OF EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH & STRATEGY AMERICAS CREDIT AGRICOLE CIB - AMERICAS NEW YORK
"I don't believe that the baseline tariff number should surprise the market. We must cycle through each country and their impact.
It seems, on the surface at least, that Brazil has a fairly good deal. With Mexico, it's not entirely clear. What will matter most is whether or not those USMCA exemptions are actually extended. We are underweighting MXN. Our overall directional outlook on the dollar against (emerging market) is neutral or slightly defensive.
OLGA BITEL - GLOBAL STRATEGIST - WILLIAM BLAIR & CO., CHICAGO
"Now, the question is: Is U.S. exceptionalism about to change? If so, to where will this leadership migrate?" Many countries have the capability and will to respond.
"I don’t think that we are in for a time of clarity or stability, but rather I see this opening salvo, and I expect a lot of back-and-forth." The question is whether the U.S. can implement these tariffs given the different rates for different products coming from different countries.
ERIC M. CLARK CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER ALPHA BRANDS PORTFOLIO MANAGER SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
These tariffs will certainly push consumers in China or other countries to buy more of their products, whether they are Chinese-made or not. It is a dangerous game, because consumers who are forced to switch products will usually get used to them and never look back.
"We are pushing nationalism further in these local market. Trump has chosen to be isolationist because of the tone in which he talks about other leaders and countries, and the nationalism he will bring. The S&P 500 companies generate more than 40% their revenues outside of the U.S. This increases the risk of a recession in the United States.
"I expect this chaos to be created to create panic. The uncertainty will drive yields lower at a time when demand is high for our debt, which allows us to refinance $4 trillion to 5 trillion dollars at better rates. Over the next few months, the tariff agreements start to be retracted and the stock market begins to rise.
JEANETTE GERRATTY CHIEF ECONOMIST, ROBERTSON STEPHENS MENLO PARK CA.
"The tariffs were so extensive and larger than expected." Earlier, people were discussing whether clarity could boost the market. Now that you've got clarity, no one is happy with what they see.
"It's not speculation that this will cause the economy to slow down and prices to rise. It will actually happen."
MICHAEL MULLANEY IS DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL MARKET RESEARCH AT BOSTON PARTNERS IN BOSTON
We have clarity now. When you dig deeper into the numbers you will find that the clarity isn't as good as the 10% baseline might have you believe.
It means that the S&P 500's earnings per share are likely to continue declining for 2025, and possibly spilling into 2026.
SARAH KETTERER, CEO, CAUSEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LOS ANGELES
This is just a salvo. It's not the final list. There will be several rounds of negotiation.
"Market weakness should allow you to invest in global equity markets. European spending is going to be huge and pivotal. It will also be very stimulating, especially if combined with increased bank lending. It's certainly not "Happy Days", but global equity markets, and especially European stocks that have trailed U.S. stock prices for 17 years, will be able to perform better. We believe that some of the gap will be closed."
BYRON ANDERSON HEAD OF FIXED RESULTS, LAFFER-TENGLER INVESTMENTS SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA
"Reciprocal Tariffs will ultimately deflationary, as our trading partners will begin to eliminate tariffs. If we do get some moderation, the market is not in a good position. We should also see the unwinding of the flight of safety. This means that treasury rates are rising and high yield credit spreads will be easing. Expect volatility as certain countries continue to defend their status quo."
JOHN HARDY CHIEF MACRO STRATEGIST SAXO BANK COPENHAGEN
It makes sense to watch the market's reaction.
The Japanese yen will be a safe haven, as well as repatriation into Japan and falling U.S. interest rates. Treasuries, particularly at the low end of the yield-curve, can be considered a safe haven. I believe that these two trades would be the most important. Even longer-term Treasuries may do well.
"If Republicans continue to hammer on about tax reductions, I wonder whether (longer-term Treasuries are a good investment). For now, the direction seems clear. "Gold, especially short-dated U.S. Treasury bonds, is the best option for storing things. There's also a wildcard for long-term investments."
JASON BRITTON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, REFLECTION ASSET MANAGEMENT, CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA
"I consider this a net positive. These tariff levels are a good starting point for future negotiations. Mexico and Canada remain exempted from any further tariffs. I believe the market will calm down and start to analyze the details, and realize that it is at best a mixed bag."
"I am looking at the large technology companies who are sitting on huge piles of money. I am a buyer of weakness if they are going to be squeezed by this retreat. "It's the market that's overreacting and I'm happy to take full advantage."
PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK
"The tariffs seem a bit high." Even though Powell said that tariffs will only cause temporary inflation, the Federal Reserve is now faced with a difficult decision. The effects of inflation could worsen and we could head towards recession.
The markets are in a condition of oversold conditions. I believe the markets will rally. (Compiled by Global Finance & Markets Breaking News; Editing by Lincoln Feast.
(source: Reuters)