Latest News
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Belem, Brazil is preparing to host the COP30 and construction continues in Belem
In a month, the first heads of state are expected to arrive in the Amazonian city of Belem for the United Nations Climate Summit. However, the infrastructure that will receive them is still not finished. Another three-story structure is still far from being completed. It sits alongside what has been called the "leaders' village," which is a collection of low-slung structures that will be home to many visiting presidents. The helipad on its gleaming glass and white facade overlooks the complex that will host the 197 nation climate talks, also known as COP30. The building's raw shell is visible at the rear, away from the road, but over the housing of the president. The Para government has said that it does not see the structure as part of the Leaders Village or of the larger public works for the COP30. However, the helipad at the top will be "made available" to meet the needs of the conference. The construction site is still a good representation of the unfinished, frenetic quality that has gripped this tropical city with 1.3 million residents in its final month of preparations. The state government of Para said that the over 30 public works, which it is preparing to host COP30, with an investment of 4.5 billion reals ($845 millions), are on time. These include roads, parks and drainage channels, as well as refurbished tourist attractions. Renovations are underway at the airport international and in the city hotels. A dozen of these hotels will be built specifically for the conference. The construction of a huge pier with thousands berths is still ongoing. A terminal to receive floating hotels was supposed to open in July but only 79% was completed last month. The lack of hotel rooms has pushed prices up to levels not seen in previous conferences. This has stoked tensions among diplomats, U.N. conference organizers, and the Brazilian Government. Brazilian President Luiz inacio Lula da silva played down these concerns during his visit to Belem, last week. In a television interview, he joked: "I'm going want to sleep on the boat." "We don’t have the boat, but I will find one."
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Stock indices mostly rise due to tech shares, but euro and yen fall on fiscal concerns
The major stock indexes rose on Monday. Technology shares rose on news that AMD had signed a deal to supply artificial intelligence chips with OpenAI. Meanwhile, the yen, euro and dollar fell against each other after Japan's ruling political party chose a new leader, and France's newly formed government resigned. Bitcoin reached a new record high, as investors sought out alternative assets amid the uncertainty caused by the U.S. shutdown. The largest cryptocurrency in the world was up by 2.16% to $125,426.34. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1717. Sebastien lecornu, the new French prime minister, resigned Monday just 14 hours after selecting his cabinet. Sanae Takaichi was selected by Japan's ruling party to be the country's first woman prime minister. She supports the "Abenomics", a strategy of aggressive spending and easy money to boost the economy, which was developed by late prime minister Shinzo Abe. Wall Street saw the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow rise, while the Dow fell slightly, as the U.S. government shutdown that began last week continued. Last week, the S&P 500 closed at a record high. The market has extended its momentum bias. The market is ignoring the government shutdown in the United States and because of this, it's believed that the Fed will be more generous than what the market had expected. Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points again at their October 28-29 meeting. This is in response to data showing a weakening of the labor market. Cardillo added that "we are not far from the third-quarter results, and it appears to be another great earnings season." The earnings season for S&P500 companies will unofficially begin next week, with the release of reports by some major U.S. financial institutions. AMD shares rose more than 25 percent, and other chip makers' stocks also rose amid optimism surrounding AI deals. The S&P 500 Technology Index was up 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 57.83, or 0.12% to 46,700.45. The S&P rose 29.67, or 0.44% to 6,745.46, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 194.13, or 0.85% to 22,974.63. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 3.14 points or 0.32% to 966.35. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.04%. Since Emmanuel Macron was re-elected in 2022, France's political instability has increased. No party or group holds a parliamentary majority. The Nikkei rose above 48,000. This was the first time the Nikkei had risen over that level in Japan after Takaichi defeated the more moderate Shinjiro. Koizumi at the Liberal Democratic Party leadership vote. The yields of short-dated Japanese government bonds fell to their lowest level in two weeks as traders reduced bets about when the Bank of Japan would resume raising interest rates. The back end of the curve is getting more attention now because Takaichi, as a general rule, is seen to be a follower Abenomics. Sarah Ying is the head of FX Strategy, FICC strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, Toronto. The majority of other major stock markets in the region, such as mainland China, South Korea, and Taiwan, were closed on holidays. Gold reached a new high of $3,900 an ounce in part due to the political and economic uncertainty in the U.S. and France. Spot gold increased 1.83%, to $3.956.94 per ounce. Prices also rose After OPEC+’s planned production rise for November was less modest than expected. U.S. crude rose 81 cents, settling at $61.69 per barrel. Brent rose 94 cents, settling at $65.47. (Karen Brettell contributed additional reporting from New York; Kevin Buckland reported from Tokyo; and Lucy Raitano reported from London. Alison Williams and Nick Zieminski edited the article.)
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Delek files lawsuit against Marex and BTX for $30 million in damages to refineries caused by contaminated crude
Delek US Holdings sued London's Marex Group, and Texas' BTX Energy. They were accused of supplying contaminated oil which damaged its U.S. refining plant and caused losses of more than $30,000,000. Delek, in a court filing in Texas Chambers County District Court, said that it started buying crude oil from Pinnacle Fuel back in January. Deliveries were handled by BTX Energy’s terminal in Winnie. According to the complaint, Delek detected abnormally high levels organic chlorides by February in its Heavy Naphtha Hydrotreater Unit. Marex declined comment, and BTX Energy didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Delek claims that tests revealed chloride concentrations up to 5,668 parts-per-million, almost 1,000 times higher than contractual limits. This caused damage to refinery units and forced lower processing rates. It also contaminated approximately 300,000 barrels clean oil. Marex, the company that acted as guarantor for Pinnacle's contract of supply, has filed a request to transfer the case to the federal court from the Chambers County Court. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Sumit Saha; Editing by Tasim Zaid and Sahal Muhammad)
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Gold reaches record high of $3,900/oz due to Fed rate cuts and global uncertainty
Gold reached an all-time record high of $3,900 per troy ounce on Sunday, boosted by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this month as well as growing economic and political uncertainties in the U.S. Gold spot was up 1.8% to $3,956.19 an ounce at 02:41 pm ET (1441 GMT), having hit a session high of $3969.91. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery settled 1.7% higher, at $3.976.3 an ounce. Marex analyst Edward Meir said that the gold rally is being driven by a number of factors, including political developments in France, rising Japanese rates amid inflation fears, and the current U.S. shutdown. Sebastien Lecornu, the new French Prime Minister, and his cabinet resigned Monday, just hours after taking up office. This deepened France's political crisis. The U.S. shutdown has now entered its sixth day. Meanwhile, the White House is threatening to lay off thousands of federal workers. Gold prices have risen 50% this year, a record-breaking run, fueled by the expectation of Fed rate reductions, central bank purchases and a resilient safe-haven market. In March, spot gold prices broke through the $3,000/oz mark for the first and reached $3,800 at the end of September. Meir said that the fact that we are so close to $4/oz suggests that some funds may be pushing it up in order to reach that mark. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and economic uncertainty. Investors now expect a 25 basis-point reduction at the Fed's meeting in this month. An additional 25 bp is expected in December. UBS stated in a report that they expect gold to reach $4200/oz at the end of the year. Spot silver rose 1.4% to $48,66 an ounce, its highest level for more than 14-years. Palladium rose 4.3%, to $1315.17, while platinum rose 1.4%, to $1626.75. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton and Chris Reese in Bengaluru, with additional reporting by Sarah Qureshi and Shalsh Kuber. Additional reporting was by Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru and John Biju.
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Argentina markets on tenterhooks as news of US support is announced
The peso of Argentina weakened slightly on Monday, while the stock market edged upwards and bond prices rose. This was in anticipation of the news that the U.S. Treasury would be providing financial assistance to Argentina. Political tensions are also increasing in Argentina ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for later this month. The price of international dollar bonds increased between 0.7 cents and 2.5 cents across all maturities. This continues the volatile trend that has been seen in the last few weeks. However, they are still far below the historic highs reached in January, which were revisited late in June. Traders said that the average price of sovereign bonds on the local market increased by 1.2%. This was due to portfolio restructuring, which occurred in response to speculative purchases. The interbank peso dropped 0.35%, to 1,429.5 dollars per unit. Meanwhile, the S&P Merval index rose 0.3%. According to his office the Economy Minister Luis Caputo was in Washington for a few days to negotiate a multimillion dollar currency swap with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent to boost investor confidence. It is not clear if he met Bessent, or officials of the International Monetary Fund. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, will meet Milei in Washington on October 14 during the same week as the World Bank and IMF convene. Roberto Geretto, an economist at AdCap in Buenos Aires, said that the market was waiting for more information than just signals. More details about the loan program or loan are needed to ease tensions and ensure the financial program no matter the outcome of the elections. The leading candidate for Milei’s party on the midterms ballot in the Buenos Aires Province resigned Sunday after being scrutinized for his ties with a businessman who is under investigation for drug trafficking in the U.S. Milei's popularity has fallen in recent weeks amid a scandal involving his sister, a confidante of his, and an angry public that is tired of austerity measures by the government. In another setback last week, Argentina's opposition-controlled Senate voted to override Milei's vetoes of bills boosting funding for public universities and pediatric healthcare.
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Stock indices mostly rise with tech shares, but euro and yen fall on fiscal concerns
The major stock indexes rose on Monday. Technology shares gained after AMD announced a deal to supply AI chips with OpenAI. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen, the euro and the French franc fell against the dollar as the ruling party in Japan elected a new president and the new government in France resigned. Bitcoin was near its all-time high on Monday as investors turned to alternative assets for a safe haven of value, as uncertainty over the U.S. shutdown kept them uncertain. The cryptocurrency last rose 1.61% to $124,755.87. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1717. Sebastien lecornu, the new French prime minister, resigned Monday just 14 hours after his cabinet was appointed. Sanae Takaichi was chosen by Japan's ruling party as the country's first woman prime minister. The yen declined also after this decision. She supports the "Abenomics", a strategy of aggressive spending and easy money to boost the economy, which was developed by late prime minister Shinzo Abe. Wall Street saw the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow rise, while the Dow fell slightly, as the U.S. government shutdown that began last week continued. Last week, the S&P 500 closed at a record high. The market has extended its momentum bias. The market is ignoring the government shutdown in the United States and because of this, it's believed that the Fed will be more generous than what the market had expected. Federal Reserve rates are widely expected to be cut again by 25 basis point at their October 28-29 meeting. This is due to data showing a weakening of the labor market. Cardillo also said that "we are not far from the third-quarter earnings and it looks like it will be another good earning season." Stocks of other chip makers also rose on the back of optimism surrounding artificial intelligence deals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 76.88, or 0.1%, to 46.681.40. The S&P 500 rose 18.99 points, 0.28% to 6,734.64 while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 113.40, or 0.5%, to 22893.90. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 2.57 points or 0.26 percent to 995.78. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.02%. Since Emmanuel Macron was re-elected in 2022, French political instability has increased. No party or group holds a parliamentary majority. Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said: "The market's biggest concern is what happens next. If Macron decides to name another PM, that will be the sixth Prime Minister in two years." Brown said that any newcomer to parliament would have the same arithmetic problems and challenges when attempting to pass a budget. The Nikkei rose above 48,000. This was the first time that Takaichi had beaten the more moderate Shinjiro. Koizumi, in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership vote. The yields of short-dated Japanese government bonds fell to their lowest level in two weeks as traders reduced bets about when the Bank of Japan would resume raising interest rates. The majority of other major stock markets in the region, such as mainland China, South Korea, and Taiwan, were closed on holidays. Gold reached a new high of over $3,900 an ounce. This was aided by the political and economic uncertainty in the U.S.A., France, and Japan. Spot gold increased 1.83%, to $3.957.25 per ounce. U.S. crude oil rose by 1.3%, to $61.67 per barrel. Brent was up to $65.47 a barrel on the same day. (Kevin Buckland, Tokyo; Lucy Raitano, London; Alison Williams and Nick Zieminski edited the article.)
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Investors fleeing uncertainty as gold blazes to new records at $3,900/oz
On Monday, gold prices soared to new records above $3,900 an ounce, as investors fled economic and political uncertainties and piled into this safe-haven metal. Spot gold has reached a record high of $3,958.57 per ounce, and is up 48% this year compared to last year. Gold is still playing the traditional role of a store value for investors, navigating through everything from changing Fed policy to political developments around the world. Joseph Cavatoni is a senior market strategist with the World Gold Council. In September, the Federal Reserve cut rates for only the first time in this year. The markets are pricing in at least two more reductions this year. The dollar is also weaker as a result of lower interest rates. Gold demand has also been driven by the conflict in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine and concerns about the Fed's independent. The uncertainty was heightened by the resignation of France's Prime Minister Sebastien lecornu on Monday just hours after he took office. Meanwhile, the U.S. shutdown is now in its sixth day. The central banks' purchases and the increasing inflows of physical gold into exchange-traded fund (ETF)s have also contributed to gold's record high. Michael Haigh is the global head of commodities at Societe Generale. According to the WGC, global gold ETF demand increased to 587.8 tons between January-September, compared with a 6.8 ton outflow for 2024. SILVER'S BULLISH TASK Silver reached its highest price since May 2011 at $48.55 per ounce. The same factors that support gold are also behind the rally of silver, including strong industrial demand, a tight spot-market and a tight supply. Aakash Doshi is the global head of gold strategies at State Street Investment Management. He said that silver was a "catch-up" trade, as it had been outperforming gold in several quarters before mid-2025. Inclusion of the metal on a U.S. draft list critical minerals has led to speculation about potential tariffs and attracted close attention from market. Silver will experience a structural market deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with 117.6 millions troy ounces expected in 2025.
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Barrick sells Tongon mine for up to $305 Million
Barrick Mining announced on Monday that it would sell its interest in the Tongon Gold Mine and certain assets in Ivory Coast, to Atlantic Group, for up to $305 million. The Canadian miner is looking to improve its balance sheet. The shares of Barrick rose by 3% on the Toronto Stock Exchange in morning trading. Barrick has been pursuing a strategy to monetize assets that are not core in markets where operational costs are increasing. This is a move it made after its merger with Africa's Randgold Resources. Instead, the company is focusing on high-margin assets with a long-term life, and a growing emphasis on copper, as well as strategic operations in Africa, and the Middle East. Gold prices are hovering around $3,900 per ounce. This is due to the fact that investors have been seeking safe havens in light of economic uncertainty and further Federal Reserve rate reductions. Barrick said that the successful exploration has allowed Barrick to extend the life of Tongon beyond its original 2020 deadline. Barrick said that the deal included a $192 million cash payment, which covered a $23million shareholder loan repayment due within six months after closing. The proceeds will help Barrick improve its balance sheet. The transaction should be completed by the end of 2025.
Andy Home: Bad news for American beer consumers as aluminium tariffs begin to kick in
Here are some good news about aluminium in the United States. President Donald Trump has backtracked on his threat to slap a 50% tariff on Canadian metal imports.
The bad news. They will have to pay a 25% tariff on all aluminum products, regardless of where they come from.
The market has already changed to reflect Trump's double-down on tariffs in order to revive domestic smelting capacities.
CME Midwest Premium, which reflects the cost of unwrought aluminum delivered to an American fabricator above the London Metal Exchange base price, has reached record highs.
The premium on aluminium will continue to flow down until it reaches the final user. This could be Ford Motor, Lockheed Martin, or any of the many independent breweries in the country.
Tariffs are still the same as they have been and will remain so long as the United States is dependent on imports.
HANGOVER TARIFF
The original tariffs Trump imposed on aluminum in 2018 were 10%. Within a year, the Beer Institute which represents nearly 8,000 American brewers, estimated that they had already added $250 million to the cost of the industry.
Harbor Aluminum, a consultancy, found that 50 million dollars had been sent to the U.S. Treasury. Another 27 million dollars went to domestic smelters. The remaining $173 million was given to fabricators who turn metal into aluminium sheets for beer cans.
The Beer Institute was irritated that the import duty was passed on, despite the fact that U.S. cansheets typically contain around 70% recycled material sourced locally.
Tariffs usually work in this way.
Ask European aluminum buyers. Import tariffs on aluminum range from 3% for primary aluminium up to 6% for some alloys.
Researchers at the LUISS university in Rome have studied the impact of the metal duty exemption on consumers. In a paper published in 2019, they found that despite the fact that around half of the imports of the European Union were made up of duty-exempt material, the final price for everyone was 6%.
Researchers found that producers are encouraged to "align" their prices at the highest level possible, i.e. the price paid in duty.
In 2022, the Beer Institute conducted a follow-up study that confirmed this harsh economic truth. It found that, even after granting exemptions to key suppliers like Canada, beer manufacturers were still required to pay full import tariffs on their can metal. At that point, the cost had reached $1.4 billion.
Import Dependency
Harbor Aluminum's conclusion that first-stage processing companies have been the primary beneficiaries of tariffs up to this point reflects the imbalanced U.S. domestic supply chain.
There are many semi-manufacturers in the country, but there are only four primary metal smelters that can supply them.
According to the U.S. Aluminum Association, more than 164,000 people are employed directly in the aluminium industry. However, only 4,000 of them are involved in upstream metal manufacturing.
These four smelters will produce 670,000 metric tonnes of metal by 2024 compared to the US consumption of 4.9 million.
Imports totaled nearly 4.0 million tonnes, with 70% of that amount coming from Canadian smelters.
It is hard to imagine that this dynamic will change anytime soon. Even if the idled smelting capacities of around 1 million tons per annum were to be brought back into production, a huge "if", given the age and cost structures of the four mothballed facilities, there would still be a large import dependency.
Century Aluminum has been working on a new smelter for years, but the company still doesn't have a reliable source of power at a competitive price to fuel the electrolysis process.
Tariffs will continue to affect the final price of American buyers as long as imports are needed to meet the domestic demand.
Uncertainty in Trading
As the markets discovered on Tuesday, Trump can raise tariffs at his whim.
The fluctuating tariff rhetoric causes volatility in the CME U.S. Premium, which briefly rose to almost $1,000 per tonne over the LME Price on the threat to 50% tariffs on Canadian Metal before retreating after news of the truce between Ontario Premier Doug Ford and the United States.
It may also lead to a significant realignment in global trading patterns.
Prior spikes in U.S. aluminum premiums have pushed European premiums up. It is only logical that Europe, which also depends on primary metal imports to compete in the global marketplace for spare parts.
This time it's different. While the U.S. has seen its premiums soar to new heights, European premiums are falling.
It is counter-intuitive to say the least, given that European consumers will be losing Russian supplies over the next 12 months as part of the latest sanctions package. The European premium is more sensitive than ever to the North American market.
This divergence indicates that some US suppliers are looking to avoid Trump’s tariff tantrums and re-direct sales to Europe.
The European beer drinkers will benefit from this, as they can offer a can of aluminium to their American counterparts who are less fortunate.
(source: Reuters)