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REFILE: What Germany's planned spending spree might mean for the economy

REFILE: What Germany's planned spending spree might mean for the economy

A massive increase in German spending is expected under an agreement reached by parties seeking to form the next government. The agreement calls for a 500-billion euro fund for infrastructure, and also plans to free up defence investments from debt restrictions.

What the future plans for Europe's biggest economy could mean in terms of growth and debt:

CAN SPENDING HELP GERMANY'S ailing economy?

According to economists yes, according to the economists

The IMK institute for economic research expects Germany to grow by only 0.1% this year after two years of contraction in both 2023 and 2024. However, the institute said that the new proposals might make a significant difference.

Sebastian Dullien, IMK’s director of economics, said: "If the financial package was implemented quickly, a noticeable acceleration in growth could be expected for the second half the year. Growth in the entire year may also move away from stagnation."

Dullien stated that Germany could reach growth rates as high as 2% in coming years, provided that there are no more shocks.

WHICH SECTORS ARE SET TO PROFIT MOST?

Construction can benefit from the fund set up to upgrade Germany's crumbling infrastructure.

The shares of Heidelberg Materials increased by 14% on Wednesday. Bilfinger shares rose by 20%, while Hochtief's were up 12%.

Also, the defence industry stands to benefit. According to the coalition's plan, Germany's strict borrowing cap known as the "debt brake" would be amended into the constitution in order to exempt defense expenditures above 1% economic output.

In effect, this would mean that there is no upper limit to the amount of money spent on defence.

The proposals of Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, Thyssenkrupp, and Renk, German defence companies, have so far seen gains between 16% to 35%.

How much more debt will Germany take on?

Lots.

Germany's debt was 64% of its gross domestic product last year. This is lower than other industrialised countries like the United States or France.

Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank, expects this level to rise noticeably over the next few years. By around 10 percentage points purely due to the special fund.

If defence spending was increased to 3.5% of GDP, the debt ratio would increase by 2.5 points per year.

Kraemer stated that the government debt ratio in 10 years could reach 90%. However, this is also dependent on inflation, and therefore, not easy to predict.

Friedrich Heinemann, a ZEW economist, said: "This would mean Germany would soon join the ranks the EU's most indebted countries." He predicted that Germany's debt could reach 100% in 2034.

WOULD THIS COST GERMANY ITS top CREDIT SCORE of AAA? Not necessarily. Eiko Sievert, a Scope analyst, said that the spending plans may increase Germany's level of debt to 72% of its gross domestic product in 2029. This is below the previous record of 80%, which was set after the global financial crash of 2010, when Germany maintained its AAA rating.

Sievert stated that the future of this possibility depends on the implementation and success of the necessary reforms in politics to boost competitiveness and economic development.

CAN GERMANY FIND SUFFICIENT LENDERS?

Germany is a popular borrower because of its top credit rating.

Investors would need to be able to attract German government bonds by increasing interest rates.

Kraemer, Commerzbank, says that investors are likely to demand a higher risk premium for German government bonds. Investors digested the news about the debt and the spending plans. The yield of the German 10-year government bond increased from 2.5% to 2,7%. This indicates that interest rates for the state will likely increase.

Could Germany's Spending Spree Influence ECB Policy?

It is possible that pumping hundreds and billions of Euros into the economy will lead to inflation.

"The ECB must take into consideration that inflationary pressures will increase again as a consequence of the planned fiscal expansion in Germany", said Cyrus de la Rubia. Chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. (Reporting and Writing by Rene Wagner; Editing by Gareth Jones).

(source: Reuters)