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Andy Home: Tin bulls retreat as Myanmar flags the return of a key mine
The Wa State in Myanmar, a semiautonomous region, has finally broken a year-long silence about the fate of Man Maw Tin Mine. The mine is the crown jewel of Myanmar's tin industry. Its suspension in August 2023 - ostensibly to conduct an audit - has reduced the flow tin materials from Myanmar to Chinese smelters and thereby constrained the output of refined metal. The Wa authorities now say they are ready for applications to be submitted for mining and processing licenses at Man Maw. This indicates that it is likely to return in the second half of this year. The International Tin Association confirmed the news and the London Metal Exchange's (LME) tin prices have fallen. MAN MAW RETURNS Myanmar, after China and Indonesia, is the third largest producer of tin in the world. Man Maw was the largest tin mine until it was suspended. As the Wa State, which controls Myanmar’s tin industry, does not have smelters, all of the tin mined is sent over to China’s Yunnan Province. The raw material shipment patterns were not much different in the first few months after the suspension of Man Maw operations, as the above-ground stock was processed. China's imports of Myanmar products have dropped significantly in the last nine-month period, from 54,900 metric tons during the first half of this year to 94,600 metric tons for the previous year. Some smaller tin mining operations have reopened but they are nowhere near as important as Man Maw. Chinese producers have tried compensating by reducing imports of other countries, such as Australia and Bolivia. The total imports of raw tin materials in 2024 were down 36% on an annual basis, and were at 156.700 tons the lowest since 2010. Lack of raw materials has impacted smelter margins, and is a major factor in China's refine metal production. BULLS WITH WRONG-FOOTED Unsurprisingly, the news of Man Maw’s return caused a sale in London's tin market. LME's three-month metal soared to a four month high of $33,790 a ton on the 21st of February. Tin was the top performer of the LME's base metals, with gains to date of 15.8%. Funds have been increasing their bull bets steadily on higher prices. At the end of the last week, long positioning had reached a new record of 5,172 contracts. This is equivalent to nearly 26,000 tons. Last week, after the ITA confirmed that Man Maw would return, the price of a ton dropped to $31,050. This week it has risen to as high as $32,145. It is not unreasonable to expect a partial price recovery, given that it could be several months until the mine starts producing tin once again. STRUCTURAL RISK The Wa State's announcement that it is ready for licenses is just the first step in a full reopening. The ITA states that even after licenses have been granted, it may take a few months for workers, mainly those from China, in order to obtain work permits and return to Myanmar. After such a long period of suspension, it is likely that the mine will need to be dewatered. This means that the shipments into China will only begin to pick up in the second half. Chinese smelters continue to face a shortage of raw materials and the production of refined metal will be affected until raw material flow returns to its pre-suspension level. The M23 rebels' advances to the east of Congo is a major concern for the tin supply market. So far, the Bisie mine in this country, which produced 17,324 metric tons of tin-contained concentrates last year, is unaffected. The mine is about 200 km west of the insurgent-controlled area, but Alphamin Resources Corp. has warned the increased risk at Bisie. This highlights tin’s structural supply issues. The market, which is often hailed as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the energy transition and internet of things, is still dependent on a small number of global suppliers. The structural supply risk is not changed by the return of Man Maw. The author is a columnist at
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What China can teach Europe on geopolitical autonomy: Klement
By Joachim Klement March 4, 2019 - As the transatlantic alliance seems to be tearing apart, Europe must quickly devise a strategy to harness geopolitical power. China could be a good source of ideas on how Europe can achieve this. Enhancing defensive capabilities is the first step. China's military was modernised in the early 1990s by its leadership. World Bank estimates that Chinese defence spending grew from $12 billion in 1993, to approximately $296 billion by 2023. This represents an annual growth of more than 11% compared to the 3.5% average in the U.S. China has the largest naval force in the world, based on the number of ships. Beijing also developed advanced drones and missile systems, such as hypersonic missiles - the most advanced missile system in the world. After the U.S. ceased its support of Ukraine's war against Russia, both Britain and the European Union are now set to significantly increase their military expenditure. British Prime Minister Keir starmer announced on February 25, that Britain will increase defense spending to 3% GDP. Friedrich Merz, the likely next German chancellor has also expressed his willingness to increase defense spending significantly. He floated an idea to add an additional EUR100 billion emergency fund. The European Commission announced on Tuesday that it would borrow 150 billion Euros as part of a 800 billion Euro effort to improve the EU's defense capabilities. Even with the additional funds, Europe will need to consider a much larger approach, as it could take many years, and even decades, to rebuild its army. Kiel Institute estimates that it will take Germany until 2038 before it reaches the same level of production as it did 20 years ago for combat aircraft, and until 2121 until it reaches a similar increase in production for artillery howitzers. Spending more money will not help much, as the capacity of European arms manufacturers will eventually reach its limits. Energy Independence The dependence of Europe on fossil fuels is another vulnerability that needs to be addressed. The Russian invasion in Ukraine 2022 demonstrated how natural gas can be used to create weapons. Since then, Europe is now using LNG instead of Russian pipeline gas. However, much of it is imported from America. So Europe has traded one dependence for another. It's also a dependency that could be risky, since all indications suggest President Donald Trump is willing to use gas in a coercive manner. In light of the new geopolitical reality, Europe needs to accelerate its green transition. According to China's experience, accelerating the energy transition can help Europe both boost its lacklustre growth in economic terms and increase its geopolitical influence. China is the largest investor in renewable energies and nuclear power. These technologies have helped reduce its dependency on fossil fuels imported from geopolitical competitors. Carbon Brief concluded recently that China's investment in solar power, electric vehicles, and batteries represented 10 percent of the country’s GDP by 2024. It also noted that the growth in these green sectors was three times faster than the overall Chinese economy. Investing in renewable energy has already brought some benefits to Europe. According to estimates by energy think-tank Ember the EU has reduced its imported natural gas bills by EUR53 billion in the past five years. The Confederation of British Industry reported that in Britain, "net zero" (for instance, renewable energy and green financing) will grow at a rate three times faster than the overall economy by 2024. REGULATORY MIGHT Finaly, the EU should be more strategic in creating and enforcing rules, as China did in recent decades. The EU has the regulatory power to use in a targeted manner to project its geopolitical influence. The Digital Services Act and General Data Protection Regulation of Europe (GDPR) demonstrate that the EU is capable of passing laws and regulations that impact companies around the globe. The DSA, which aims to regulate social media platforms and impose penalties up to 6% on global income, could be a major headache for U.S. technology companies. The EU will increasingly need to use its regulatory powers as a bargaining tool in order to deal with trade and security threats. It may not be natural for Europe to use these hardball tactics, but other major powers do not seem to share the same sensibilities. Perhaps it is time that Europe did. The views expressed are those of Joachim Klement who is an investment strategist with Panmure Liberum - the UK's biggest independent investment bank.
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Russell: OPEC+’s 'healthy crude oil market' is an illusion. Trump effect is not.
OPEC+, the group of crude oil producers, justified its decision to increase production citing "the healthy fundamentals of the market and a positive outlook for the market." They are probably looking at a different market than the rest of us. OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus Russia and its allies - announced in a Monday statement that they will proceed with a planned increase in production in April. Calculations show that the volume of oil required to be added back is 138,000 barrels per daily (bpd). It is not enough to have a significant impact on global supply but it is more than enough for investors to feel confident. Brent futures, the global benchmark, fell 2.2% and closed at $71.59 per barrel, their lowest closing price in three months. The current crude oil market is anything but healthy, so it's difficult to believe OPEC+ when they say that the market will be healthy. According to LSEG Oil Research, Asia, the region that imports the most oil, saw its arrivals fall by 780,000 bpd compared to the same period in 2025. Asia imported 26.17 millions bpd during the period January-February, which is a decrease of about 3% compared to the 26.96 in the same period 2024. Asia accounts for about 60% of all seaborne crude oil imported globally, which gives the continent a dominant role in determining prices and demand. Even outside Asia, oil markets are in a bad state. According to LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group), seaborne imports into Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), dropped from 12.8 to 9.1 millions bpd during the week ended February 21. In January, EMEA seaborne landings reached 14.2 millions bpd. This means that they have dropped significantly in February. U.S. crude oil imports were better than the previous week, but still fell by 490,000 barrels per day (bpd) or 8% to 5.82 millions bpd. Investors have also become increasingly bearish about crude. Money managers cut their net long positions in U.S. Crude Futures and Options on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Intercontinental Exchange last week to their lowest levels since December 2023, when they hit a record-low. Donald Trump's announcement that his 25% tariffs will be implemented on Tuesday against imports from Mexico or Canada is likely to exacerbate the bearish mood of crude oil markets. Imports of Canadian crude oil will face a 10% tariff, which may be significant, given that Canada supplies over 4 million barrels per day to the United States. This is approximately 60% of all imports. It will be interesting to see if Canadian exporters will have to offer a discount, or if their U.S. refinery clients will be forced to pay the tariff. The Canadian refiners who buy the heavy crude will also have difficulty sourcing it from other suppliers. TRUMP EFFECT The disruption of crude markets that is likely to result from Trump's latest tariffs and the inevitable retaliation may provide some insights into OPEC+’s decision to modestly increase its oil production in April. OPEC+ could have tried to anticipate the Trump effect. The group's increased output can be seen as a way to meet one of Trump’s main demands. That is, to pump more to lower the global crude oil prices. OPEC+ has also given itself some wiggle-room in case some of Trump's bullish actions are brought to the forefront. His plan to drastically cut oil exports from Iran, Venezuela and other countries would have a significant impact on crude markets in Asia. China is the largest oil consumer in the world, but Iran is the sole customer. OPEC+ could also believe that the conflict between Russia & Ukraine will worsen, rather than resolve itself, given the apparent breakdown of relations between Trump & Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. It is still too early to tell what impact this will have on the oil market, but it seems that Trump wants to relax sanctions against Russia. This move would likely be opposed by Ukraine's European Allies. OPEC+ may also be weary of losing market share to countries like Brazil and the United States. Also, if the prices are going to be lower due to global geopolitical uncertainty and economic instability, OPEC+ might as well take a larger market share. These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Sam Holmes).
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EU discusses support for Europe’s steel industry in the face of U.S. tariffs
Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission's chief, hosted executives from the steel industry on Tuesday to discuss how to maintain its future health in light of high energy costs and decarbonisation as well as impending U.S. Tariffs. The debate will examine how the EU can respond to unfair trade practices, including in China, and global overcapacity. It was launched eight days prior to President Donald Trump's planned 25% tariffs. Participants included executives from ArcelorMittal, the second-largest steelmaker in the world, and ThyssenKrupp, as well as leaders from global union federation IndustriALL and key steel users from car manufacturing and construction. The key question is how to protect EU producers against a possible flood of imports of steel diverted from the U.S. market into the more liberal European market. Since 2018, when Trump introduced metal import tariffs during his first term, the EU has provided safeguards for steel in the form of quotas that are tariff-free per quarter and country. According to World Trade Organization regulations, these safeguards are only valid for eight years. They will expire during Trump's second presidential term, which is mid-2026. The European Commission (which oversees EU Trade Policy) has stated that it is looking at extending safeguards or setting up an alternative mechanism. The current system could be tightened. The EU steel demand will likely have declined in 2024, for the second year running. According to Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, iron and steel exports to the U.S. totaled 5.4 billion euro, while iron and steel imports to the EU amounted to 39.5 billion euros. The Commission will also seek to understand the views of industry on energy prices. This includes raw material supply, how to best promote low-carbon steel demand, and how to secure investment. $1 = 0.9512 Euros (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Tiffany Vermeylen, Philip Blenkinsop)
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Seplat, Nigeria's Seplat, plans to spend up to $320 Million on new assets as it drives production
Seplat Energy will invest $320 million this year in infrastructure and new wells, with the goal of doubling its oil production to 140,000 barrels a day after acquiring Exxon Mobil Nigeria assets. Last October, the company obtained government approval to purchase 40% of four oil mine leases, associated infrastructure including the Qua-Iboe export facility, and 51% the Bonny River Natural Gas Liquids Recovery Plant, which was previously owned by Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (Exxon's local subsidiary). The acquisition will be a major part of the production increase that is projected. This could bring the company's oil production from 48,618 barrels per day (bpd) last year up to as much as 140,000 bpd. Former Exxon assets are expected to contribute 60%. Seplat CEO Roger Brown stated that this year, the company will be focusing on reopening closed-in wells at SEPNU (the exxon assets) and launching a full drilling campaign on our onshore assets. The company reported a profit before taxes of 379.4 millions, up from 191.1 million last year. Revenue was $1.116 billion up 5%, with cash in the bank at year's end of $469.9million and net debt of $898million at 2024. After years of sabotage, and disagreements with local communities about leaks, international oil companies have shut down much of their shallow-water and onshore oil production in Nigeria. The company plans to complete the ANOH Gas Plant and drill 13 new onshore wells this year. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Isaac Anyaogu)
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China wants to know your opinion about the rules for imports, including battery waste and recycled steel
The Environment Ministry announced on Tuesday that China is seeking public opinion regarding rules for the importation of leftovers from the recycling spent lithium-ion batterys, as well recycled steel materials. The deadline for comments was set at March 20, in accordance with China's desire to speed up recycling efforts. This is reflected in the establishment of the China Resources Recycling Group, a group that focuses on recycling in the city of Tianjin, located in the north of the country. According to the proposal of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, black mass, which is a mixture of nickel and cobalt containing a combined content greater than 25%, does not qualify as solid waste. It can therefore be freely imported into China. The black mass is the residue left after lithium-ion battery waste has been recycled. It usually contains metals like lithium, nickel, cobalt and cobalt. China allows imports of black mass produced by lithium-iron-phosphate batteries. Imports of recycled steel with a content greater than 92% iron are also allowed. Reporting by Violet Li, Mei Mei Chu and Clarence Fernandez; editing by Christian Schmollinger & Clarence Fernandez
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Indonesia plans to use the sovereign wealth fund to boost coal-gasification projects
Energy Minister Danantara Indonesia said that Indonesia is looking to increase coal gasification through its newly established sovereign wealth fund Danantara Indonesia. Indonesia, which is the world's largest thermal coal producer has been trying to process low-ranking coal into dimethyl ether in order to reduce LPG imports. However, previous projects have failed due to investors pulling out. Energy Minister Bahlil stated late Tuesday that the government will provide the capital investment, and the local investors will cover the rest. "Danantara will be one of them." Bahlil stated that four coal gasification project will be implemented in South Sumatra, East Kalimantan and both in parallel. He didn't provide any details about the project size. The government is accelerating 21 natural resources processing projects, worth $40 billion. Bahlil also said that Indonesia plans to build a refinery capable of processing 500,000 barrels of oil per day and increase its fuel storage to ensure energy security. The energy ministry estimated that the investment for the new refinery will be $12.5 billion. Danantara was launched in Feburary and is expected to manage assets worth more than $900 Billion, including stakes by the government in state-owned firms. Prabowo Sulaiman, the president of Danantara, has announced a $20 billion investment for Danantara, which will be used to fund projects in energy, food security, and natural resource processing. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Mrigank Dahiwala, and Mrigank Christina; Reporting by Bernadette Cristina, Stefanno Sulaiman, Stanley Widianto)
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Sources say that China's CNOOC will expand its refinery after a $2.7 billion upgrade.
Industry sources say that China National Offshore Oil Company is planning to launch a joint venture refinery complex in June. This will mark the company's expansion into refining, petrochemicals and other areas. CNOOC plans to begin operating the Daxie Island complex in Ningbo, which includes over a dozen newly-installed facilities as part of a 20 billion Yuan ($2.74billion) expansion program. This could increase the demand for imported crude oil by the company. A recent CNOOC tender document stated that the key additions included a 120,000 barrels per day (bpd), a 3.2-million-metric-ton-per-year (tpy), a 2-million tpy hydrocracker and a continuous reformer of 2.4-million tpy. According to three sources familiar with the subject, the upgrade will increase the capacity of the Daxie plant to process crude by 50%, to 240,000 bpd, as the smaller crude unit is being mothballed. It will also expand its capacity to produce raw materials for synthetic fibres and plastics. One source said that the expansion of Daxie will increase CNOOC's total crude oil processing capacity in China to approximately one million bpd, including plants which the state firm controls or invests. CNOOC’s largest subsidiary, based in Huizhou, is located in south China’s Guangdong Province. A CNOOC-controlled refinery with a 440,000-bpd capacity is integrated into a Shell-invested petrochemical facility. Sources declined to name themselves as they were not authorized to speak with the media. CNOOC, the parent company of offshore oil and natural gas specialist CNOOC Ltd, is responsible for managing the group's refining, petrochemical and petrochemical businesses. CNOOC's Refining and Chemical Division said on its official WeChat Platform on Tuesday that Daxie was heating its crude oil unit as part of preparation works before the launch of the plant. CNOOC's representative has not yet commented. CNOOC won an unusual batch of crude import quotas of 3 million tons (60,000 bpd) earlier this year. According to traders, the quotas were allotted to Union King Holdings' expanded Daxie Refinery. CNOOC, on the other hand, is building a commercial underground oil storage base in Daxie that has a total capacity of 31.5 million barrels and 5 million cubic meters. This was revealed by a document published last September regarding the company's procurement. According to the document, construction of the site will be done in two phases and should be finished by 2027. CNOOC has a similar-sized base of oil reserves in the Shandong Province refining hub. $1 = 7.2924 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by David Evans; Additional reporting by Trixie YAP; Editing by David Evans).
Copper prices fall as tensions over tariffs escalate
Prices of copper fell Tuesday after U.S. president Donald Trump slapped new tariffs on China and Canada. This sparked fears about a possible trade war that could affect the global economy. However, prices remained within a narrow range while traders awaited further clarity.
The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange dropped 0.7%, to $9,351 per metric ton, by 1049 GMT. This was below the 21-day average of $9.411.
Trump's new tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico, Canada and the United States took effect on February 2, along with a doubled duty on Chinese goods.
China responded with a hike in import duties for American agricultural and foodstuffs, bringing the two largest economies closer to a full-blown trade war.
Dan Smith, the head of research for Amalgamated Metal Trading, said: "We are looking at two major developments."
The prospect of a war in Ukraine is bullish, as it would boost confidence and reduce the risk that the conflict could spiral out of control.
People are having a hard time trading those two possibilities. Smith said that traders usually use the "buy the rumour sell the truth" strategy. However, now they ignore the rumour to trade the facts.
According to a White House spokesperson, Trump has halted military assistance to Ukraine after his confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last Thursday. The Kremlin's spokesman expressed caution on reports that the U.S. had halted its aid to Ukraine and said more details were needed.
The start of the National People's Congress in China (NPC) coincided with the new tariff exchange on Wednesday and further limited the reaction of the base metals. The NPC is expected to announce new stimulus measures that will help support the economy of China, the top metals consumer in the world.
LME aluminium dropped 0.2% to $2606 per ton. Zinc fell by 0.8% to 2,818.50; lead remained at $1,991.50; nickel slipped 0.1% to $15.870 while tin rose by 0.7% to $30,735. (Reporting from London by Polina Deitt; Additional reporting in Bengaluru by Anushree Mukerjee; Editing by Janane Vekatraman.)
(source: Reuters)