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Andy Home: Tariff threat creates rift between copper prices in the US and Europe

The market has already priced in the possibility that after steel and aluminium, the red metal could be the next to receive import tariffs.

In recent days, the arbitrage between CME and London Metal Exchange (LME), has become more pronounced. The CME premium exceeded $1,000 per metric tonne earlier in the week.

The market expects a minimum 10% tariff based on the current price of LME 3-month copper, which is currently around $9,400 a ton.

CME premiums could rise further if Trump imposes the same 25% tariffs on imports of aluminum and steel.

Doctor Copper's likely reaction to a escalating trade war and its negative impact on global growth is being overlooked.

Mind the Widening Gap

The CME’s U.S. Midwest Premium Contract is where the aluminium trade takes place, because the CME’s underlying contract for aluminium mirrors the LME’s international delivery status.

CME copper contracts, on the other hand, are customs cleared and only have domestic delivery locations. This means that any premium associated with U.S. deliveries must be reflected in this contract.

The CME premium is a good indicator of potential U.S. copper tariffs.

Right now, it's trading at record-highs. It even surpasses last year’s short squeeze explosion.

CME's copper stock has recovered from its depleted level that fueled the squeeze, and now totals over 100,000 tonnes.

The U.S. Geological Survey reports that the U.S. consumer is highly vulnerable to tariff barriers, as the country still relies on imports to meet around 45% domestic consumption.

Trump's tariff threat is causing price volatility. However, the exact level and countries against whom tariffs will be applied are still unknown.

The announcement of tariffs on aluminum and the possibility of even higher duties if trading partners retaliate has spooked copper markets, forcing arbitrage to become more widespread.

Damage Impact

According to the USGS, the immediate focus of the trade in copper tariffs is on refined metal. This is understandable, given that the United States only imported just under 800,000 tonnes of this product in 2024 compared with the 850,000 tons of domestic production.

The CME premium, which is currently a major incentive for metals to be shipped to the United States, will adjust the trade flow over time.

Tariffs on copper could have a much more complicated impact, due to the complex flow of materials between the United States, Canada and Mexico, which both face 25% tariffs.

Copper wire is exported by the United States to Mexico for use in automotive parts, such as electric motors and wiring harnesses. These are then sent back across the border.

Analysts at Project Blue estimate that this trade represents 220,000 tons of copper per year. If high tariffs are imposed on these imports, harness assembly will likely move from Mexico to cheaper Asian countries. This would have negative effects for Mexican and U.S. automotive companies.

Tariffs may cause copper scrap flows to be diverted to other countries - most likely China - at the expense of U.S. secondary manufacturing.

TARIFF DRAG

The interconnectedness between North American copper flows and the globalised picture is only part of the bigger, complex picture. This leaves the metal vulnerable to any shifts in trading patterns that may result from U.S. Tariffs.

Doctor Copper is a title that has been given to the metal because of its importance in the global economy.

The possibility of tit-fortat tariffs being imposed between the United States, and its trading partners, could have a significant impact on consumer spending.

The market hasn't yet priced this in. The LME copper has increased by 7% in price since January 1, fueled by the expectation of an improved demand, especially in China.

China, along with everyone else, is in the sights of the Trump administration.

Copper will be affected by the tariff wars if they have started. This will reflect in the international prices rather than U.S. prices, suggesting a further fracture between CME-LME markets.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)