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Sources say that a drone strike in Russia has halted the fuel production of Astrakhan's gas plant for several months.
Three industry sources told Reuters on Tuesday that the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant in Russia will likely suspend its motor fuel production for a few months following drone attacks earlier this week. The complex is one of the largest in the world. Ukraine launched drones on Monday to strike energy facilities in southern Russia. The drones caused fires at an oil refinery, and a gas processing plant. Sources said that a unit for processing condensate was set ablaze during the attack. The unit's annual capacity was 3 million metric tonnes of condensate. Gazprom, the energy giant that controls the plant, has not responded to requests for comments. The unit is in a bad state. "The shutdown is expected to last three months," a source said. A second source stated that the unit could resume operations as early as July based on a preliminary evaluation. Traders said that the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange had suspended sales of gasoline and diesel from this plant. In a video posted on Monday by the local governor Igor Babushkin, an employee told him that there was a problem with a unit of condensate treatment at the plant. According to industry sources, Astrakhan's plant produced 1.8 million tonnes of stable gas condensate and 800,000 tonnes of gasoline. It also produced 600,000 metric tons of diesel, as well as 300,000 metric tons of fuel oil. David Goodman is responsible for editing and reporting.
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After tariff storm, global stocks and currencies are able to find their footing.
The stock market and currency held steady Tuesday, as a calm uneasy settled over the markets. This was despite United States and China titt-for-tat tariffs. Mexico and Canada had won a last minute reprieve. The U.S. S&P opened flat while the Nasdaq, which is heavily tech-oriented, rose 0.2%. The S&P fell 1.9% on Monday morning as U.S. president Donald Trump appeared to be preparing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican goods and Canadian products. However, both countries were able to delay the move by promising to improve border security. The European stock market was flat on the last day after falling by 0.87% in the previous day. Ben Laidler is the head of equity strategy for Bradesco BBI. "I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. I believe the lack of a strong rebound is the reason." "We're putting 10% on China. I think that the European Union is clearly in the crosshairs." At 0501 GMT an additional 10% U.S. duty on Chinese exports went into effect. Minutes later, Beijing announced that it was investigating Google, and would be imposing tariffs from February 10 on the imports of U.S. cars, farm equipment, oil, coal and gas. The dollar index (which tracks the currency's performance against six major counterparts) was last 0.18% less at 108.38 after jumping as high 109.88 Monday. Investors were encouraged by the possibility of a possible negotiation with China as they saw a drop in the U.S. dollar against China's offshore currency yuan. Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific Investment Strategist at Legal & General Investment Management Hong Kong said: "Investors are hopeful that both parties will come to an agreement soon and remove any barriers." Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.8% over night, reaching its highest level since last December. Investors are watching the Chinese currency band that China will fix on Wednesday to see if it is going to try to weaken its yuan in order to reduce the impact of the tariffs. Trump's Press Secretary said that the President plans to speak with Chinese president Xi Jinping within the next few weeks. Gold, a safe haven for investors, was trading at near-record highs of $2.838 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased 3 basis points to 4.569%, after having ticked higher on Monday. The dollar increased 0.21%, to 155.08 Japanese yen. Google reported its earnings after the close of U.S. stock markets on Tuesday. Brent crude fell 2.4% to $74.16, its lowest level in the past year.
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Andy Home: Aluminium is the base metal analysts' bullish pick for 2025
Analysts predict that the London Metal Exchange's (LME) pack of base metals will be the most successful in 2025. They also forecast a shortage of light metals this year. Analysts who participated in the base metals survey of January also expect higher cash prices this year for zinc, copper, and tin compared to 2024. Nickel remains the commitment even though the average LME Cash price has fallen by nearly 22% in the last year. Nickel oversupply is expected to continue in both 2019 and 2020. Analysts are focusing on supply dynamics to determine the likely winners and losers for this year, but there is a gloomy macro-picture hanging over the industrial metals industry. Since the last quarterly survey in October, all median forecasts have been reduced for lead, copper, tin and nickel. This is due to concerns about the impact of a trade war on demand. ALUMINIUM BULLS According to a January survey, the average LME cash aluminum price is expected to rise by 4.9% in 2024, and then another 6.3% in 2025 to $2,573.50 a metric ton. The result was not much different from October's poll, indicating a growing conviction in the metal’s bullish prospects. The higher price forecast comes from a shift in the market dynamics towards a shortage of supply. Analysts have shifted their consensus from a surplus of 100,000 tons to a deficit of 8,000 tonnes in 2025. The average price per ton will increase to $2,626 in 2026. The recent tightness on the alumina markets has boosted the price of aluminium, but the greater structural constraint to supply is China's cap on smelter capacities. China's annualised production was close to 45.0 million tons by the end of 2024. It's not clear how the rest the world will fill in the gap if the largest producer of the world has reached the end of its expansion potential. ZINC PRICE Rally Sighted Fading Zinc, the second most valuable metal this year, is expected to see a 4.2% increase in the average cash price to $2.895 per ton. Analysts also raised their expectations for zinc prices from the poll conducted in October, compared to the general trend. You can see how the story of zinc has changed over the past three months. The market was expected to have a massive oversupply, but it has been surprisingly tight due to a shortage of mined concentrates that drags down the global metal production. Analysts expect that zinc prices will weaken in 2025 and 2026. Zinc is the only LME metal that analysts expect to see its price fall next year. Zinc's lead premium will also diminish, as lead prices are expected to remain steady at $2,050 this year and in the future. DIALING BACK COPPER Analysts have reduced their expectations of copper's potential growth. The median forecast for the cash price this year is lower by 4.8% than the poll from October. Copper is the LME Metal most sensitive to macro sentiment. The macro-economic outlook has become even more turbulent since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports. China's carefully calibrated response gives some hope for a successful trade negotiation. However, copper, which is the largest consumer of the metal in the world, is especially sensitive to any negative effects. This year will be no different. The market spent a lot of time last year searching for signs of resurgence in China's massive manufacturing sector. Tariffs, and the possibility of further ones in the future, have muddied the waters. THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER FOR NICKEL Since October, the median nickel forecast has been downgraded to $16,265 a ton. This is due to the increasing LME stock levels. Analysts don't expect much more downside after the market has already dropped so dramatically over the past year. According to the consensus, LME cash nickel will average $15.550 per ton during the current quarter. It is expected to rise steadily to $16,750 by the fourth quarter. Price recovery is forecast to continue through 2026, with a cash median price of $17.637 per tonne. Indonesia, which is the dominant producer in the world, may slow down its production to stabilize prices. UNPREDICTABLE Tin The tin market has been particularly volatile over the past couple of years, and it's hard to predict what the future holds for this soldering material. Median forecasts indicate a modest 2,6% increase in the average price for this year compared to 2024. This masks an extremely wide range of expectations ranging from $23,750 per ton to $33,000. In 2026, the range is even larger at $21,000 to $37,000. This is a good example of how hard it is to understand this small, but deeply opaque market. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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After tariff storm, global stocks and currencies are able to find their footing.
The stock market and currency held steady Tuesday, as a calm uneasy settled over the markets. This was despite United States and China titt-tat-ing on tariffs a day after Mexico won a last minute reprieve. The U.S. S&P opened flat while the Nasdaq, which is heavily tech-heavy, rose 0.2%. The S&P fell 1.9% on Monday morning as U.S. president Donald Trump appeared to be preparing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican goods and Canadian products. However, both countries were able to delay the move by promising to improve border security. The European stock market was flat on the last day after dropping by 0.87% in the previous day. Ben Laidler is the head of equity strategy for Bradesco BBI. "I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. I believe the lack of a strong rebound is the reason." "We've got 10% on China. I think that the European Union is clearly in the crosshairs." At 0501 GMT an additional 10% U.S. duty on Chinese exports went into effect. Minutes later, Beijing announced that it was investigating Google, and would be imposing tariffs from February 10 on the imports of U.S. cars, farm equipment, oil, coal and gas. The dollar index (which tracks the currency's performance against six major counterparts) was 0.18% lower last night at 108.38 after a Monday high of 109.88. Investors were encouraged by the possibility of a possible negotiation with China as they saw the U.S. dollar fall 0.17% in relation to China's offshore currency yuan. Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific Investment Strategist at Legal & General Investment Management Hong Kong said: "Investors are hopeful that both parties will come to an agreement soon and remove any barriers." Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.8% over night, reaching its highest level since last December. Investors are watching the Chinese currency band that China will fix on Wednesday to see if it is going to try to weaken its yuan in order to reduce the impact of the tariffs. Trump's Press Secretary said that the President plans to speak with Chinese president Xi Jinping within the next few weeks. Gold, a safe haven for investors, was trading at near-record highs of $2.838 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased 3 basis points to 4.569%, after having ticked higher on Monday. The dollar increased 0.21%, to 155.08 Japanese yen. Google reported its earnings after the close of U.S. stock markets on Tuesday. Brent crude fell 2.4% to $74.16, its lowest level in the past year.
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Gold reaches record highs as investors seek safe havens amid tariff war
The gold price reached a new high on Tuesday as investors sought the safe haven asset following China's retaliation against the U.S. after President Donald Trump's tariffs. As of 09:23 am, spot gold rose 0.7% to $2.834.24 an ounce. After hitting a session high of $2.836,98, gold prices rose 0.7% to $2.834.24 per ounce at 09:23 a.m. ET (1423 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.2% to $2.862.80. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist with RJO Futures. He said, "The tariff news has come out overnight. I believe that right now, that's more important than anything else and any data that comes out." Haberkorn stated that "the dollar was strong heading into this week, but a lower dollar also helps the price gold." Gold is now cheaper for holders of other currencies due to the dollar's 0.5% decline. China responded quickly to the new U.S. tariffs by imposing its own duties on U.S. imported goods, intensifying the trade war that has erupted between the two largest economies in the world, even as Trump granted reprieves for Mexico and Canada. Three Fed officials said on Monday that the Trump administration's plans to impose trade tariffs could lead to inflation. One official argued that uncertainty about future prices would call for a slower rate cut than usual. Bullion has traditionally been considered an asset that protects against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, but the higher interest rates have reduced its appeal. Investors will also be watching key data, such as the ADP Employment Report on Wednesday, the Payrolls report on Friday and speeches by several Fed officials. Spot silver increased 1% to $31.87 an ounce. Palladium dropped 2.1% and platinum fell 0.4%, to $968.05. Platinum also shed 0.4%.
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Westinghouse looks to old nuclear sites in Italy for small reactors
A company official revealed on Tuesday that the U.S. energy giant Westinghouse has proposed to install small modular reactors in Italy, using sites decommissioned from nuclear power plants. Construction is expected to begin by 2030. The move is in line with the shift in Italy's policy on energy as right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Melons government looks to revive an industry that has lain dormant since decades. Fabio Presot was the Westinghouse Commercial Sales Manager who made this proposal during a hearing in parliament. Italy has four nuclear sites that are no longer in use. Lorenzo Mottura, the executive of Edison, the Italian branch of French group EDF plans to build two advanced nuclear reactors by 2040 in Italy, he told the hearing. The first plant will be completed by 2035 and the second one by 2040. He added that the first small modular reactors would be available at the end of the decade, and tested in the early 30s. Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, the Energy Minister, announced in October that Italy had been in talks with several groups including Westinghouse, EDF and others as potential partners to create a state-backed nuclear company. After referendums in 1987, 2011 and 2013, nuclear power plants are prohibited in Italy. Fratin, who spoke last week, said that the country plans to finalise by 2027 a strategy to reintroduce the nuclear power nearly 40 years after its ban. The government stated that advanced modular reactors, small modular reactors, and even small modular reactors can help decarbonise Italy's most polluting sectors, such as steel, glass and tilemaking. Reporting by Giancarlo Navach, writing and editing by Francesca Piscioneri
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Ball Corp., a can maker, beats its quarterly profit forecast thanks to lower costs
Ball Corp., a company that makes aluminum beverage cans and other products, beat Wall Street's expectations for the fourth quarter profit on Tuesday, as its cost-cutting efforts helped counter low demand. Ball Corp. has been forced to cut operating costs by a growing number of clients, including Corona beer maker Constellation Brands, who have flagged weak consumer spending. The company has also streamlined its operations, closing down some manufacturing plants and selling its aerospace business to focus on the core business. Some companies have also moved away from plastic packaging, which has helped the aluminum can business. This helped to increase volume, especially in EMEA, where sales increased 11% during the quarter. LSEG estimates show that weak U.S. sales lowered overall sales to $2.88 Billion, a 0.8% drop. This was below the analysts' average estimate of 2.91 Billion. Ball Corp's largest expense, cost of sales, dropped 0.7% to $2.29 Billion. This helped the company beat analyst estimates of 80 cents a share. The company has also predicted a profit increase of more than 10% for the full year, as opposed to market expectations of 12.5%. Analysts say that tariffs may lead to an increase in inflation and a subsequent slump in consumer spending. (Reporting and editing by Shreya Biwas and Savio d'Souza in Bengaluru)
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Sources say Uganda has sent 1,000 additional soldiers to the east Congo, near the M23 conflict.
Four diplomatic and U.N. officials said that Uganda had deployed over 1,000 additional soldiers in east Congo during the past week, near a region where the Kinshasa Government is fighting M23 Rebels. This has heightened fears of regional escalation. Residents reported that they were moving toward the conflict zone. M23, a Rwandan-backed group, recently took control of the regional capital Goma. This is a mineral-rich and anarchic part of Democratic Republic of Congo that was ravaged by wars from 1996-1997 to 1998-2003. According to U.N. reports, the extra Ugandan deployment would increase its numbers in that area - officially backing Congo President Felix Tshisekedi against another rebel force -- to approximately 4,000-5,000. Rwanda has troops in the east Congo. Sources said that Uganda has been assisting Congo in its fight against the Islamist Allied Defence Forces (IADF) since 2021. The new deployment, which included between 1,000 and 2,000 troops, was part of a campaign called Operation Shujaa. U.N. experts report that Uganda also supported the ethnic Tutsi led M23. This is the latest in an ongoing series of Rwanda-backed rebels who have taken up arms on behalf of Congo's Tutsis. Since the weekend, residents in Butembo have reported seeing columns of Ugandan soldiers moving southwards towards the frontline with the M23. The Ugandan army's spokesperson Felix Kulayigye, denied any major new deployments. He said that its forces have changed "their posture to offensive defense", without providing further details. When asked whether more troops were arriving, Congo's Communications minister Patrick Muyaya didn't respond. However, he did stress that the Ugandan soldiers present in the region had the ADF as their priority. Combat against M23 soldiers and Rwandan soldiers is also possible. "There is still a great deal of suspicion surrounding Uganda and what the M23 are doing in general," he said. UGANDA'S 'SURGE' Corneille Nangaa is the head of Alliance Fleuve Congo (an umbrella organization that includes M23 fighters). He said that Uganda did not provide support, but he also didn't expect hostile treatment. Uganda denies U.N. claims that it helped train M23 fighters, and provided the group with a base in which to transport men and weapons. After capturing much of North Kivu Province, the M23 rebels are consolidating their grip on Goma, and have begun moving towards Bukavu a town located 200 km (125miles) to its south. They have stated that they will not take the city after meeting with resistance from Congolese forces and Burundian troops. Uganda and Rwanda entered the east Congo in the recent past to protect their borders, but were accused of looting gold and other natural resources. Zobel Behalal is a senior analyst at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, a think tank. He said that eastern Congo was as important to Uganda's economic future as it was for Rwanda, and Uganda would do whatever it took to protect their interests. "The surge is preparation," he said. He was referring to Uganda’s efforts to manage any conflict spreading so that they could continue to benefit from the wealth and trade that crossed their border. Uganda is helping Tshisekedi’s army to hunt down the ADF, which has ties with the Islamic State and was originally based in Uganda but now resides in Congo. ADF's operations have been disrupted by air and ground attacks, forcing them to flee their strongholds. Muhoozi Kainerugaba has publicly supported Rwandan President Paul Kagame's government and is the son of Uganda's powerful president. In 2022, he called M23 "brothers" who were fighting for the rights Tutsis of Congo. Reporting by David Lewis, Sonia Rolley, Elias Biryabarema, Kampala and Ange Kasongo, Kinshasa. Editing by Andrew Cawthorne.
Trump's tariffs are only going to make Nissan even more hurt
Nissan is the Japanese carmaker most likely to suffer from Donald Trump's possible tariffs against Mexico and Canada.
Although it is unclear if the U.S. president will actually follow through on his 25% levies, after agreeing on a 30-day break Monday, the blowback for Japan's third largest carmaker would be severe, as the company is currently struggling to turn around, and in talks to merge Honda.
Nissan, Toyota and Honda are all the biggest automakers in the U.S. The three Japanese automakers produce some of the most popular U.S.-made models in Canada and Mexico. Analysts and industry experts claim that the tariffs will have a significant impact on all three.
Toyota and Honda, however, are more prepared than most to deal with the tariffs. They have the financial resources and the ability to raise prices and pass some of the tariff costs on to consumers.
James Hong, Macquarie's head of mobility research, said that Nissan is barely profitable in the automotive industry. The majority of models that Nissan builds in Mexico to export to the U.S. is compact cars such as the Sentra or Kicks. These are aimed at consumers who are cost-conscious and can't afford higher prices.
Nissan could be in serious trouble if the tariffs are not removed. If the merger is successful, it could be a burden for Honda too.
Nissan did not respond immediately to a comment request. The company stated on Jan. 22, that it was unable to speculate on the impact of potential policy changes. However, it said it would continue to focus on producing quality vehicles.
Hong estimates that Nissan's operating profit would be completely wiped out if it didn't take action to respond to the tariffs. For example, re-routing Mexican cars to other markets like Brazil, increasing prices or lowering output.
According to S&P Global Mobility, Nissan gets 27% of their U.S. sales through Mexico, while Honda and Toyota get 13%, and 8% respectively.
S&P Global Mobility estimates that 43% of Volkswagen's U.S. sales come from Mexico.
FRESH BURDEN
Trump's decision would make what was once a major advantage for Japan's automakers - a low cost production base close to the U.S.
Nissan began manufacturing cars in Mexico in 1966 when it opened the first plant outside Japan. Toyota, Honda, and Mazda followed. Nissan opened its first U.S. plant in 1983, in Smyrna Tennessee.
If the tariff is added to the cost of a car that's reasonably priced, the consumer will not want to purchase it. "So, for example, 10% is added to the cost of the car while the remainder is borne by the company," explained an executive from a Japanese automaker who was not Nissan.
The executive said that since production in Mexico could not easily be stopped, another option was to sell cars produced there in Latin America and elsewhere. He declined to be named because the matter is sensitive.
Hyundai, the South Korean automaker that has no plants in Mexico or Canada, is also aware of the problem faced by Japanese automakers.
Hyundai's CFO stated during a recent call that even if Trump introduced tariffs to all markets outside of the U.S. the South Korean automaker does not expect to be as hard hit as its Japanese competitors.
A threat of tariffs casts a dark shadow on Nissan's planned partnership with Honda.
Christopher Richter, a senior Japan autos analysts at CLSA brokerage said: "This complicates a merger that is already hard to execute."
Nissan and Honda will announce further details on their proposed merger by the middle this month.
Both companies aim to join forces by 2026. This would be a pivotal moment for Japan's automotive industry, and highlight the danger that Chinese EV manufacturers pose to traditional carmakers.
Nissan is also suffering from a slump in sales in China and the U.S. It announced in November that it would cut 9,000 jobs, and 20% of global production capacity.
Toshihiro Mbe, Honda's CEO, said that Nissan had to turn around its fortunes before the merger could take place. Honda did not save Nissan.
Sources have confirmed that Mitsubishi Motors' junior partner Nissan is considering not joining in the merger. This complicates the plan.
The tariffs could not have come at a worse time for automakers, given the global disruption that the industry is facing.
CLSA's Richter said that Mr. Trump does not seem to understand the fact that it is impossible to change auto production overnight.
"In the interim, they will try to charge the consumer the most they can in order to offset this and eat as less of the tariffs as possible." Reporting by Daniel Leussink, Maki Shiraki. Hyun Joo Ji in Seoul has contributed to the reporting. David Dolan, writer. Mark Potter (editing)
(source: Reuters)