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China iron ore imports head for record even as steel output slips: Russell

China is on track to import record volumes of iron ore in October, increasing the divergence between the need for the steel raw material and the still weak output of the ended up product.

China, which buys practically three-quarters of global seaborne iron ore, is likely to import as much as 120 million metric loads this month, according to vessel-tracking and port data.

This would be a strong increase from the official custom-mades number of 104.1 million heaps in September, and likewise represent an all-time high, eclipsing the previous record of 112.7 million in July 2020.

The strength in iron ore imports stands in sharp contrast to the softness in steel production, which moved for a 4th successive month in September, dropping to 77.07 million tons, down 1.1% from August and 6.1% from the very same month in 2023.

China's steel output for the first 9 months of the year was 768.48 million tons, down 3.6% from the very same duration in 2023, according to information released by the National Bureau of Data last week.

If there is a positive from the September steel production information, it's that the speed of decline slowed from the 10.4%. on-year drop in August.

Whether the drop in steel output can be raised to show an. boost in the next few months mostly depends upon whether steel. mills see rising demand on the back of Beijing's stimulus. efforts.

September was prematurely for any kick greater in steel need,. offered the major stimulus statements were right before month. end.

Nevertheless, if the steps to improve the ailing property sector. do flourish, it's likely to just lead to an increase in. real need in 2025.

This makes the rush to purchase more iron ore seem rather. early.

PRICE DRIVEN IMPORTS

October's imports are on track to reach 120.5 million heaps,. according to data put together by commodity analysts Kpler, while. LSEG analysts expect arrivals of 117.3 million heaps.

It's most likely that steel mills and traders took heart from the. stimulus efforts announced by Beijing, but lower spot rates for. iron ore might likewise have actually enhanced purchasing.

The price of Singapore Exchange agreements dropped. to the lowest in 22 months in September, hitting $91.10 a ton on. Sept. 10.

They then traded in a narrow range around that level until. completion of the month, implying that much of the iron ore showing up. in October would have been protected at reasonably low costs.

Iron ore prices did surge in the wake of the stimulus. announcements, reaching a three-month peak of $110.55 a ton on. Oct. 7, before relieving back to end at $104.21 on Monday.

A more sober reflection of when China's stimulus is likely. to in fact result in increased steel demand might have caused. iron ore costs moderating, but it's worth noting they have. still held onto most of the gains made since the October low.

The threat is that the strong import volumes end up being. added to inventories, which might serve as a drag on additional rate. gains even if steel output does begin to recover.

Port stocks kept track of by consultants SteelHome. << SH-TOT-IRONINV > increased in the week to Oct. 18, hitting 147.2. million tons, up from a five-month low of 145.8 million the. prior week.

Stockpiles have increased highly in the past 12 months, rising. from a seven-year low of 104.89 million lots in the last week of. October 2023 to a current high of 151.8 million in late July.

The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a. writer .

(source: Reuters)