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Nasdaq falls, yields rise as Mideast conflict fears increase
The yields on U.S. government bonds eased a little bit on Tuesday. However, longer-dated yields remain near multi-year highs. Earlier in the day, the 30-year Treasury yield had reached a level that was not seen since 2007. Fears of an escalating Middle East?conflict have fueled inflation concerns and put pressure on stocks. Oil prices rose for the third consecutive session as prospects of a U.S. - Iranian peace deal dimmed. Tehran announced it would take a more aggressive stance, and Washington said that it wouldn't extend a ceasefire agreement. U.S. crude climbed 0.82%, to $85.17 per barrel. Brent was up to $91.37 a barrel on the same day. The yields on Treasury bonds have increased despite recent soft economic data in the United States, which has eased concerns over an impending Federal Reserve rate increase. The Fed will only raise rates by 35% at its September meeting, but the odds are 68% that it will do so in December. Resurgent inflation may lead to a renewed expectation of a quicker pace in rate increases. Will Compernolle is a macro-strategist at FHN Financial. He said: "We live in a world that will have supply shocks after supply shocks." Costs of the ongoing Iran war are also adding to concerns over the U.S. financial trajectory. Last week, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell 2.32 basis points to 5.2868% after having reached 5.3371% - the highest level since 2007. Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 1.6 basis points to 4.708%. They reached 4.7478% - the highest level since January 2025. Analysts are concerned that domestic investors, particularly pension funds and insurers, could start shifting their capital from U.S. bonds to Japanese bonds as Japanese yields become more attractive. This would increase the pressure on Treasury rates. Japan's 10-year yield hovered just below 3% for the first since the mid-1990s. Euro zone bond yields were also near multi-year heights. Markets turn cautious Wall Street's major indexes have fallen to their lowest levels in two weeks due to losses in heavyweight tech stocks. Kim Forrest is the chief investment officer of Bokeh capital Partners. She said, "The yields worry people because they portend a tighter economy and that borrowing money will be more costly." "Especially with this AI thing, where the time to repay it is uncertain. This creates a nervous environment for investors. The high yields on stocks tend to make them less appealing to investors and increase borrowing costs for companies that invest heavily in AI infrastructure. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.05%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell?0.12%. And the S&P 500 fell?0.50%. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 0.63% and the pan-European STOXX 600 Index dropped by 0.69%. The CBOE Volatility Index (Wall Street's fear gauge), hit its highest level in over a week. Investors will now turn their attention to the release of Wednesday's minutes from the Fed's most recent policy meeting, as well as this week's Jackson Hole Symposium, which is expected to be closely monitored for clues about how policymakers interpret recent economic data. Jonas Goltermann is the chief markets economist for Capital Economics. He said that the minutes of FOMC meetings are a more important way to convey the views of policymakers, given the fact that the FOMC's statement of policy and Fed chair Kevin Warsh's speeches have less information. The Federal Open Market ?Committee is the Fed's interest-rate-setting body. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including yens and euros, rose by 0.06%, to 99.60. The euro gained 0.03%, at $1.1582. Gold spot fell by 1.11%, to $4366 per ounce.
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Russia's Putin talks energy with Myanmar leader
Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks in Moscow on ?Tuesday with Myanmar's junta chief-turned-president, Min Aung Hlaing, ?discussing a wide range of issues including prospective energy deals. Min Aung Hlaing's first visit to a non-neighboring country since becoming Myanmar president in April is Russia. This shows the deepening of ties between the two countries in response to the pressures from the West. After the meeting, Putin called Min Aung Hlaing a friend of Russia, and said that the two countries are cooperating in a variety of sectors including energy, defence, and even space exploration. Putin said that Russia and Myanmar are in discussions on the construction of an oil refinery, as well as hydrocarbon production and exploration on Myanmar's continental shelves. He said that there are good prospects of supplying Russian liquefied natural gas to Myanmar. This includes for transit to other countries. He also?said there were good prospects for supplies of Russian liquefied?natural gas to Myanmar,?including for onward transit to other countries. Russia, like China, supports Myanmar's military. Moscow has?expanded defence cooperation and looked for opportunities for Russian companies in Myanmar. Myanmar has been in turmoil since the 2021 when its military overthrew Nobel Peace Prize-winning?Aung San Suu Kyi's administration, sparking a civil conflict. Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's president, has been to Russia on several occasions. Last year, he and Putin met in the Kremlin for talks. Min Aung Hlaing gave six elephants to Russia and signed an agreement with Russia's nuclear power corporation that they would build a small nuclear plant in Myanmar. (Written by Alessandra Prente and Maxim Rodionov, edited by Hugh Lawson).
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Trump Administration moves to rescind a rule that protects millions forest acres
Tuesday, the?Trump Administration took a first step towards?rescinding?a decades-old regulation that protects undeveloped forest. The administration claims this will help to manage wildfire risks, but environmental groups say it will do just the opposite. Donald Trump has reversed environmental regulations and removed land from conservation to be used for energy extraction. According to a Department of Agriculture press release, the 'proposed rule' filed by the U.S. Forest Service will rescind 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule which bans logging and roads in undeveloped forest and transfer authority to the local national forest managers. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, wildfires in the U.S. are at their worst level ever. As of August 17, 7.3 million acres (3,000,000 hectares) had been burned by around 49,000 fires. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated in a press release that the repeal of the rule will improve forest health and decrease wildfire risks. She said: "Today we filed a proposed to restore authority to the local forest managers, who know the land the best. We removed the barriers that prevented them from doing the necessary work for the land." Environmental groups claim that the rule's revocation would increase wildfire risks by exposing forest land to more human activity. Wildfire density was found to be lowest in protected forests and wilderness areas and highest near roads, according to a 2025 analysis conducted by the Wilderness Society. Josh Hicks is the director of conservation campaigns for the group. He said that "too many communities depend on these forests to be healthy and untouched." Hicks added that "opening up our backcountry forest to more roads, development and,?therefore, more ignitions" is not and will never be a solution for wildfires. According to USDA, the Roadless Rule restricts development on?nearly 59 million acres of forest (24 million hectares), or about 30% of the National Forest System. The agency will accept comments on the proposed rule up until September 21. Reporting by Leah Douglas, Washington; Additional reporting by Andrew Hay, Taos New Mexico; Editing by Timothy Gardner and Rod Nickel
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Chile's economy misses its forecasts due to a mining slump that drags down GDP
Official data released on Tuesday showed that Chile's economy experienced a decline of 1% in the second quarter. This was below expectations, as lower copper production affected its key mining sector. Data from the central bank showed that Andean economy shrank by 0.2% compared to a year earlier. Gross domestic product, despite a slight improvement from the revised 0.3% contraction year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, missed economists' expectations for 0.1% growth. The central bank stated that the economy of the largest copper producer in the world was hindered by the key mining sector, which decreased 6.4% because of lower production of red metal. The central bank explained in a recent report that "lower ore grades, maintenance work and reduced production at major deposits" affected copper mining operations. The recent drop in inflation and the surprisingly low Q2 GDP result in Chile will lessen the pressure on the Central Bank to tighten its monetary policy, according to Capital Economics analyst Kimberley sperrfechter. Chile's central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% in September, and hold that level for 24 months. In the second quarter, the Andean economy remained flat compared to the previous three-month period. This was below the forecast of a 0.3% growth in a poll. poll. The quarter was better than the last one which had a contraction of 0.3%. Reporting by Aida Peaez-Fernandez, Carlos Serrano and Alison Williams; editing by Chizu Nomiyama & Alison Williams
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As fears of a Mideast conflict grow, stocks are falling and yields rising.
?U.S. Government bond yields eased on Tuesday. However, longer-dated yields remain near multi-year-highs. The 30-year Treasury yield had earlier reached a level not seen since 2007. Fears of a Middle East conflict that escalated fueled inflation fears and weighed heavily on stocks. Brent crude reached its highest level since late last week after Washington and Tehran's latest signals crushed hopes for an imminent resolution to the conflict. U.S. crude climbed 0.3% to $84.75 per barrel while Brent dropped to $90.79, a 0.09% drop on the day. The yields on Treasury bonds have increased despite recent soft economic data in the United States, which has eased concerns over an impending Federal Reserve rate increase. The Fed will only raise rates by 31% at its September meeting. However, traders expect an increase of 68% in December. Inflation could resuscitate expectations of a quicker pace in rate hikes. George Bory is the chief investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments. Costs of the ongoing Iran war are also adding to concerns about the U.S. financial trajectory. Last week, the yield on the 30-year Treasury Bond in the United States fell by 1.57 basis points to 5.2943%. It had previously reached 5.3371% - the highest level since 2007. Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 1.2 basis points, to 4.712%. They reached 4.7478% at the end of January 2025. Analysts are concerned that, as Japanese government bonds yields rise to their highest levels in 30 years, investors, particularly pension funds and insurers, could start shifting capital from U.S. debt into Japanese bonds. This would increase the pressure on Treasury rates. Japan's 10-year yield hovered just below the 3 percent threshold for the very first time since mid-1990s. Meanwhile, euro zone bond rates were also near multi-year records. Markets turn cautious Wall Street's major indices fell to a two-week low on Tuesday. This was mainly due to losses in heavyweight tech stocks, which are particularly sensitive to changes in Treasury yields. Kim Forrest is the chief investment officer of Bokeh capital Partners. She said, "The yields worry people because they portend a tighter economy and that borrowing money will be more costly." "Especially with this AI thing, where the time to repay it is uncertain. This creates a tense investor environment. The high yields on stocks tend to be a drag on the equities market by making them less appealing to investors and increasing borrowing costs for companies that invest heavily in AI infrastructure. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.12%. And the S&P 500 fell 0.49%. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 0.55% and the pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.43%. The CBOE Volatility Index (Wall Street's fear gauge), hit its highest level in over a week. Investors are now turning their focus to the release of Fed policy meeting minutes on Wednesday, as well as the Jackson Hole symposium next week, which will provide clues as to how policymakers interpret recent economic data. Jonas Goltermann is the chief markets economist for Capital Economics. He said that the minutes of FOMC meetings are more important than the FOMC policy statement or the Fed chair's (Kevin Warsh) press conferences because they convey the balance?of policymakers' views. The ?Federal Open Market Committee is the Fed's interest-rate-setting body. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, and euro, rose by 0.02%, to 99.56. The euro was up 0.04%, at $1.1584. Spot gold dropped 0.49% to $4393.61 per ounce.
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Mali gold production jumps 30% during the first half of the year, exceeding forecasts
Mali's industrial gold production rose by?about 30 percent in the first half of 2026. This exceeded government expectations and signals a rebound after a challenging 2025, marked by tensions with the state. Mali is one of Africa’s top gold producers. To boost revenue, it has tightened the grip on its mining sector. Reforms have sometimes upset miners. The impact of the fallout was felt in production, which dropped to 42.2 metric tonnes?in 2025. This is a drop from 66.5 metric tons produced at a record level in 2023. The latest data from the Mines Ministry shows that industrial gold production reached 23.5 tonnes between January and the end of June. This is up from 18 tons during the same period in 2025, and exceeds the government's prediction of 21.2 tons. The scoreboard for industrial production did not give any reasons for the better than expected performance, and Mali's Mines Ministry did not respond immediately to a comment request. Mali's gold production is expected to reach or surpass its forecasted 43.2 tons for the full year. B2Gold Fekola mine was the largest gold producer in the country?in the second half of the year, according to figures from the Ministry. Barrick's Loulo production exceeded the 5.5 tons reported by Barrick for 2025. Other significant contributors included Resolute, with?3.0 tonnes and Allied, with 3.5 tonnes. Separately this month, Mali’s Council of Ministers granted a large scale mining permit for B2Gold’s Menankoto Project, opening the door to the development of a new mine. The new permit is part of a growing pipeline of gold projects in Mali. This includes the Kobada project by?Toubani Resources. B2Gold anticipates that?Menankoto will produce more than 150,000 ounces per year from 2028. Kobada, on the other hand, is expected to produce 162,000 ounces per year by 2027 and is aiming for first gold. (Reporting and editing by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, David Holmes and Tiemoko Diallo)
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Russell: Divergent demand factors are driving China's steel production.
The fact that China's steel production dropped to its lowest level this year in July supports the idea that the world's second largest economy struggles for growth momentum. As usual, the devil lies in the details. Steel demand is unevenly distributed across the economy. The world's biggest producer of industrial metal saw its steel output fall to 76.93 metric?tons during July. This is a 3.6% drop from the same period in 2025, and it was the lowest July since 2017. China's first seven months of the year saw a production volume of 577.04 millions tons, down by 3.1% compared to the same period last year. The market is always looking for the downside, and in the case of steel, this is the construction industry, which is still plagued by overcapacity and weak housing prices, as well as reluctant buyers. Conditions are important because construction accounts for about a third China's demand for steel. In July, new home prices were down 0.1% from the month before and 3.2% from a year ago. The picture is not as bleak if you look at the other two-thirds. Exports are the?star' of the show. Exports are booming, despite a slowdown in domestic sales, which has now been going on for 10 straight months. July's exports of 1.043 millions units were up by 81.3% compared to the same month last year and was the second consecutive month that shipments exceeded 1 million. China's exports have generally held up, despite the economic uncertainty caused by the U.S. War against Iran and tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Exports in U.S. dollars rose by 23.9% in July, mainly due to shipments of technology and vehicles. China prioritizes technology industries, such as toys and white goods, over traditional manufacturing sectors like cars. Overall, China's growth path is becoming more diverse. This will make the outlook for steel more difficult. EXPORTS? Exports have been a bright spot for the industry, but they can't be relied on as a constant source of growth in demand, as the 4% drop in steel shipments during the first seven month of the year, to 64.99 millions tons, shows. The steel industry will likely have to either hope for a stronger stimulus from Beijing in order to spur a recovery of construction or rationalise its capacity. Steel mills have already struggled to stay afloat. According to data from MySteel, only one-third were profitable by the end of July. This is down from about half at the beginning of June. Steel inventories have also reached high levels, as reported by SteelHome. At 5,07 million tons during the week ending August 14, this is up from a recent low of 4,67 million tonnes in mid-June, and higher than the 4,11 million tonnes from the same period in 2025. Steel inventories usually increase until September, after which they tend to decline during the peak construction period that lasts from winter start. Iron ore prices and imports have not yet reflected the struggles of the steel industry. Instead, the main raw material has shown a?stable to slightly better picture. China imports 736.84 millions tons of seaborne iron ore in the first seven month of this year, an increase of 6% over the same period of 2025. Kpler estimates August imports at 111.16 millions tons, up from July's official number of 108.08million. Since June, iron ore prices are also largely stable between $93-$100 per ton. The Singapore Exchange contract ended at $95.10 Monday. The iron ore prices are largely a function of the available supply. And the recent steady history shows that the new Simandou Mine in Guinea has a long way to go before it reaches its 120 million tons per year capacity. China's imports of Guinean gold were only 2.1 million tonnes in July. However, as Simandou ramps up production this could increase. This will lead to a softer price as top producers Australia and Brazil have to compete. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Bond markets in the US and Japan are smashed by inflation and fiscal concerns
The United States' long-term borrowing costs to Japan and Germany reached their highest level in decades on Tuesday as new inflation concerns added to the nagging concern about the fiscal pressures that are facing some of the largest economies around the world. The 30-year bond yields of the United States - the world's most important government bond market - hit their highest level since 2007. Oil prices -- which are up 50% this year -- have risen back above $90 per barrel, causing inflation fears as U.S. - Iran peace hopes fade. In Japan, fears of inflation and the expectation that Japan would hike interest rates by September drove 10-year borrowing costs up to a record high. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield reached its highest level since 2011. French yields also hit their highest level since 2009. And Britain’s 30-year borrowing cost was nearing the peaks that were set in May and marked the highest levels ever since 1998. Bond prices fall when the yield of a bond rises. Kjersti Haugland is the chief economist of investment bank DNB Carnegie. She said that bond markets have entered a period where inflation and rates are more uncertain, and upside risks are higher. This marks a departure from the low-rate and subdued-inflation post financial crisis period. She said that the high levels of government debt, especially in Japan, the U.S.A., France, and the UK, coincided with the selling. Analysts said that the competition for capital among AI hyperscalers - the technology giants who are building massive data centres - combined with the rising budget deficits, and in the United States the concern over clear communication by the Federal Reserve under the new chair Kevin Warsh, all contributed to the selling. The sale of government bonds has ripple effects throughout the economy, since sovereign debt is used to set borrowing costs for businesses and other loans like mortgages. Financial conditions are also tightened by rising borrowing costs, which could halt the economic growth responsible for stock market record highs. Entering a danger zone? U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are currently trading at 4.74% and have previously attracted attention from U.S. officials. Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, said: "This is very important not only for the bond markets but also for other financial assets, as any break upwards will likely undermine confidence." The U.S. Treasury is likely to defend this level given its importance. Treasury." Analysts believe that the Treasury's unusual choice to sell euros instead of dollars during a recent joint intervention with Japan in order to support a weakening yen indicates it doesn't want to see bond market tensions worsened as a result of foreign central banks selling Treasuries for currency-support operations. Treasury Department data released on Monday showed that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell in June. The decline was led by Japan, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Bonds, the UK, and China. The yields of two recent Treasury auctions have also attracted attention. The sale of 10-year bonds cleared at a rate of 4,683%, which is the highest yield in 19 years. And the 30-year bond ended at 5,216%, a peak of 25 years. The rising tariff refunds are putting further pressure on the U.S. public finances, following the Supreme Court's ruling that President Donald Trump was not entitled to impose emergency tariffs last year. Changes in Japan's dynamics are attracting Japanese investors who are traditionally large buyers of U.S. bonds. This is creating a new headwind on the U.S. Bond Market. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo Bank, based in Singapore. She said that Japanese bond yields are at a much more competitive level, and she noted?the fall in Japan's U.S. Bond holdings in June. Washington cannot assume that foreign demand at yesterday's yields will be sufficient to absorb any additional supply. Rising yields made the bond market attractive to some investors. We are short on duration. Christopher Dembik, Pictet's senior investment advisor, said that he did not expect the current bond sale to last. In Europe, where high ?government spending and high debt have weighed on France and ?Britain, concern that climate events will add to spending pressures was also a factor, ?along with inflation and stronger-than-expected growth. Benjamin Schroeder, senior rates strategist at ING, said that the ECB is not only concerned about oil prices. There's a broader picture of inflation that keeps them hawkish. The heatwaves in Germany have led to extreme drops in Rhine levels.
Andy Home: ROI-China eases Iran War Aluminium Shock, but at a Cost
China is now a major swing?supplier for aluminium in a Western market reeling from the loss production in the Gulf due to the Iran War. The top aluminium producer in the world has increased exports of metals, alloys and semi-manufactured goods (semis) to help cushion the impact on the global supply chains.
China views the timing as fortunate. The national production has reached record levels, despite a slowdown in domestic demand.
While China's exports may have temporarily relieved the market, a long-term problem could be lurking.
Mind the Tax Gap
Tax code is the primary factor that determines the composition of China's aluminum exports. The primary metal is subject to a 30% tax on exports, whereas alloys and semis are exempt.
No surprise then that the majority of China's export volumes is in the form alloys and products like bar, rod, and tube. It's not that primary metal exports haven't responded. The first-half volume rose 32% on an annual basis to 38,400 tons. However, the majority of this metal likely comes from Western aluminum stored in bonded storage and is now being rerouted back to Western markets. China, for example, "exported" 9700 tons to the U.S. from January to June but U.S. Customs only counted 70 tons of Chinese imported goods during the same period. The exports of alloy have grown faster and nearly doubled to 238,500 tonnes in the first half of 2026. In fact, China became a net alloy exporter in June for first time since 2019. In the meantime, China produced an additional 500,000 tons of semis. The cumulative volume was up?18% on an annual basis at 3.2 millions tons from January to June.
The pace of shipments continues to accelerate. The tally for June of 695,000 tonnes was a monthly record.
DISPLACEMENT These products exports cannot directly replace the primary metal and alloy units lost in the Gulf. They suppress the demand for unwrought steel by substituting it at a later stage in the production chain.
The rub is in the details. This has led to a shift of manufacturing from other countries to China. China's semis are a source of controversy for Western policymakers, and many countries have responded with anti-dumping duties on a variety of products. Beijing has removed the 13% VAT export rebate for products in December 2024, partly to address these concerns.
Last year, exports dropped 18% to 890 000 tons as Chinese processors shifted to the domestic market.
The Iran War?has again changed the dynamics, reinvigorating the outbound flow thanks to a combination of a structurally stressed Western Supply Chain and a lax internal market.
Cost of Comfort
Analysts at Citi say that the Chinese demand for aluminium has flattened in the first half 2026. The end-use index of the bank fell by 0.4% on an annual basis, reflecting weakness in traditional sectors such as construction.
International Aluminium Institute reports that primary aluminium production grew 2.2% in the same time period. ?The country's smelters are now ?operating close to or even slightly above Beijing's mandated 45-million-ton-per-year capacity cap.
Stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, although they have fallen in recent weeks, still remain higher than London Metal Exchange inventories of 358,000 tonnes, which includes metal stored off-warrant.
China has the ability to keep exports high for some time.
The LME market has been reassured by this, as aluminium has lost most of its war premium. The price of aluminium for the three months has fallen from its four-year-high of $3,787.50 a ton, at the beginning of June, to $3,270.00. This is only $100 more than before the U.S. Israel and the United States attacked Iran on 28 February. The longer the West relies on Chinese products to balance the market, the higher the long-term costs for Western manufacturers.
Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)