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UN chief raises alarm over AI threat after Trump plays down
U.N. Secretary General Antonio?Guterres warned on Wednesday world leaders?that rapidly evolving artificial intelligence poses risks that?cannot?be ignored. This puts him at odds with Donald Trump, who has argued that existing safeguards are enough. Guterres, speaking ahead of the U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York next week, told reporters that the need for stronger supervision would be the major focus of his discussions with the global leaders who will be visiting the city. Guterres said, "We cannot ignore the concerns raised by those who are at the forefront of AI development." "The first duty of any government is to protect their citizens, including against the threat of artificial intelligence." After Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon announced last week that he was resigning, the public is becoming more concerned about the dangers of AI. "People building AI believe earnestly that it could kill all of us?by the?end?of the decade." Some of the biggest companies in the industry have called for a slowdown of AI's development. Trump claimed on Monday that there are already guardrails to regulate and prosecute AI firms in the U.S., downplaying concerns raised by industry leaders. Guterres is a long-time advocate of global AI governance. In 2023 the U.N. established a 39 member advisory body on AI. Members included tech company executives, officials from government and academics, including those from the U.S. and Japan. Diplomats have said that the U.N. Security Council may also meet on AI next week during the annual gathering in New York of world leaders. In 2023, the 15-member council held its first meeting on artificial intelligence. Guterres stated that the countries at the forefront of AI should "establish mechanisms for contact, information exchange and common guardrails to avoid a race to the bottom which could one day lead to a global 'disaster. Trump said that China would be able to benefit from the "doubt" being cast about AI development. Next week, he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington. It was reported earlier that two countries were planning a separate gathering in mid-September, to discuss AI risks. Guterres stated on Wednesday that "we need to have a shared understanding about how to progress the safe, secure, and responsible development AI" while also identifying situations where increasingly powerful systems might require additional safeguards or measures to mitigate potential risks.
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Poland's Orlen buys 16 extra crude cargoes amid Saudi disruption
Poland's Orlen announced on Wednesday that it had purchased?16,000,000 barrels of additional oil for its Polish,?Lithuanian, and Czech plants. Traders said the company was rushing to secure crude in order to cover disruptions in Saudi supply until November. Saudi Arabia's petroleum industry is struggling to cope with the effects of a series of attacks from Iran-aligned militias, one of which shut down its East-West Pipeline?on 10 September. Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, has been Orlen’s biggest supplier of oil since 2022. It provides around 40%. Orlen announced in a Wednesday statement that it had contracted for 16 additional deliveries of fuel to its refineries located in Poland, Czech Republic, and Lithuania, including those from Norway, Great Britain and Algeria. Saudi Arabia has not said when it will re-open its East-West Pipeline. Market sources say Orlen buys to cover the demand in September and October. Orlen published two new tenders on Wednesday to purchase crude oil. One was for North Sea crude oil and the other was for Brazilian or Guyanese crude oil. Orlen, which was a major oil consuming country a decade ago, has weaned off Russian crude in the last few years. It signed a contract with Equinor of Norway last month to supply?25% its needs in Sverdrup crude. Orlen said that the remaining part of the demand was covered by a contract signed in August with Equinor, Norway. He added that the company monitors the raw materials market and has a diverse supplier portfolio.
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UN chief raises alarm over AI threat after Trump plays down
U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned leaders of the world on Wednesday that the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence poses serious risks that can't be ignored. This puts him at odds against President Donald Trump, who argues that "existing safeguards" are adequate. Guterres, speaking?ahead? of the U.N. General?Assembly meeting in New York next week, told reporters that the need for stronger supervision would be the major focus of his discussions with global leaders who are coming to the city. Guterres said: "We cannot ignore the concerns raised by those who are on the frontlines of AI development, in particular." "It is the responsibility of every government to protect their citizens, including against the threat of artificial intelligence." After Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon announced last week that he was resigning, the public's concern about AI dangers is increasing. Some of the largest companies in the industry have called for a slowdown in the development of AI. Trump claimed on Monday that there are already guardrails to regulate and prosecute AI firms in the U.S., downplaying concerns raised by industry leaders. Guterres is a long-time advocate of global AI governance. In 2023 the U.N. established a 39 member advisory body on AI. Members included tech company executives, government officials and academics, from countries like the U.S. Diplomats have said that the U.N. Security Council could also meet on AI next week during the annual gathering of world leaders, which will take place in New York. The 15-member council met on artificial intelligence for the first time in 2023. Trump said that China would gain from doubts being cast on AI development. Next week, he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping?in Washington. It was reported earlier that lower-level government officials from both countries would be leading a meeting between the two countries in mid-September, to discuss AI risks. Guterres stated on Wednesday that "we need to have a common understanding of how to develop AI in a safe, secure, and responsible manner, while also identifying the times when more powerful systems might require additional safeguards or measures to mitigate potential risks."
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EGA: EU Aluminium Scrap U-turn Could Affect German Expansion
Emirates Global Aluminium's chief financial officer said that it was "very disappointed" at the EU's decision to abandon a proposed export tax on aluminum scrap. The move will affect the decision-making process for a planned expansion of recycling in Germany. Sources familiar with the talks said that the EU retracted its proposal earlier this month for a 15% duty on exports of aluminium scrap, which was intended to prevent so much material from leaving the EU. They were concerned it would complicate the signing of a final free trade agreement with India. The industry lobby European Aluminium has expressed "profound disappointment, anger and shock" over the decision. Pal Kildemo, EGA's finance chief, said on Wednesday at the Fastmarkets?Aluminium Conference? in Budapest: "I think many people were disappointed by what happened the previous?day. This includes ourselves." "We invested a lot of money... to participate in the higher recycling rates in Europe." When this becomes part of larger trade politics, that's bad for our industry. EGA announced last week that it had completed its purchase of 80% of Eco?Green which collects and sorts more than 70,000 tonnes of recycled aluminum per year in Italy. It bought German'recycler Leichtmetall in 2024 and announced last December a six-fold expansion of the capacity at the 'unit. This included 110,000 tons of scrap sorting and melting capacity per year, as well as 150,000 tonnes of casting and melting capacity per year. Kildemo said that EGA still has to "make a build decision" for this expansion. The less uncertain you are, the easier it will be to make a decision. Kildemo explained that it would influence the decision-making process. "I cannot say whether the project will proceed or not without this duty, but it is a negative." Kildemo added: "It is not the end of discussion."
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Retail sales in the US rose sharply in August
Retail sales in the U.S. rebounded much more than expected during August, as households stocked up on motor vehicles and restocked for the new school term. This reinforced the economy's resilience at a time when consumers are becoming more concerned about high inflation. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that retail sales rose 1.2% in August after a 0.5% decline in July. This was the first drop in nine months. The economists polled predicted that retail sales (which are mainly?goods, and are not adjusted to inflation) would rebound by 0.8% following a previously reported drop of?0.6% in July. Estimates varied from a 0.2% increase to as high as 1.1%. The increase in receipts at service stations was partly due to higher gasoline prices. The U.S. war against Iran and the high oil prices have caused supply chain stress, which has led to households continuing to spend. The consumer has become more selective, and is looking for lower priced goods. This month, consumer sentiment declined. Recent stock market gains and steady wage growth are supporting spending. Savings is also down and households are tapping into their nest egg. The strong retail sales combined with rising price pressures, and a labor market that has regained its equilibrium after stumbling through most of the summer, have further strengthened?financial markets' expectations that Federal Reserve will increase interest rates on Wednesday. Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, building materials, and food services, surged by 1.4% in August after a 0.4% drop that was not revised. The economists expected that core retail sales, the ones which most closely correspond to consumer spending in terms of GDP, would rise by 0.4%. Estimates of economic growth for the third-quarter currently exceed 2.0% annualized. Last quarter, the economy grew by 1.5%.
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Sources: Drone attacks have put Russian refineries in Syzran and Saratov on hold.
Three industry sources confirmed that the Rosneft owned oil refineries in the Volga River?cities of Syzran & Saratov have ceased?processing? following Ukrainian drone attacks earlier this month. The plant in Syzran was shut down on Tuesday. Saratov's operations were suspended last Friday. This week, despite the announcement made by U.S. president Donald Trump that both countries had agreed to cease their attacks on energy infrastructures of each other, Russia and Ukraine have continued to attack each other. The shutdown of refineries in Russia will probably worsen the domestic fuel shortages, which were already a problem due to restrictions on gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports. Rosneft has not responded to our request for comment. SYZRAN'S MAIN UNIT DAMAGED Sources claim that a drone attack damaged several facilities at the Syzran refinery, including the CDU-6 main crude distillation unit, which has a daily capacity of 17,100?metric tons, or 71% of its processing capacity. The refinery's repairs could take a minimum of a month. When the strike on September 15 occurred, the refinery's CDU-5, which has a daily capacity of 7,100 tonnes, or 29%, was being repaired following an earlier drone attack in July. SARATOV ATTACKED AGAIN Saratov's refinery has stopped processing crude oil since September 11, following another drone strike. Sources said that the plant had also suspended operations on September 8, due to fires and equipment damage caused by a previous drone strike. The plant was planning to resume processing between September 10 and 11th. Saratov's refinery was also closed for several weeks following a drone attack on August 2. The?Syzran refining plant, located in Russia’s Samara region has a capacity to process crude oil of 150,000 barrels a day or 8.5 million tonnes per year. Saratov refinery's capacity is 140,000 barrels per day or 7.0 million tons of metric tonnage. Separate industry sources claim that the Syzran Refinery will process 4.3 million tonnes of crude oil in 2024, and produce?0.8 millions tons of gasoline and 1.5 million?tons diesel, and 0.7million tons?of fuel?oil. According to industry sources, Saratov refinery will process 5.8 million tonnes of crude oil in 2024 and produce 1.2 million metric tons of gasoline, as well as 1.9 million metric tons of diesel fuel, and 1.0 metric tons of fuel.
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Google signs largest carbon-removal agreement yet and aims to scale up new model
Google's biggest carbon-removal agreement yet involves backing a Brazilian project run by developer Terradot. The project aims to?cut methane emission from rice farming?and.capture carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Executives told. It is the largest rock-weathering project in history, covering more than 200,000 acres of land in the southern state Rio Grande do Sul. The goal is to speed up a natural process by which certain rocks absorb CO2 out of the air. Google's head for carbon removal Randy Spock said that the initiative is the first of its kind to combine methane removal and carbon removal. Methane is a "super-pollutant" greenhouse gas, which warms the air?more rapidly than carbon dioxide. It helps slow down global warming. However, carbon dioxide removal will still be needed to remove centuries' worth of accumulated emissions. "We need to do both." Spock stated that we do not have the luxury to focus all our resources solely on scaling up long-term 'carbon removal' or on tackling short-lived superpollutants. The project will generate one million metric tonnes of credits for methane abatement by 2030, and one million tons of credits for carbon removal by 2040. These credits are generated and verified separately. The carbon-removal component of the deal is 10x larger than previous rock weathering projects. According to an assessment of 2021 by the U.N., rice paddies are responsible for 10 to 12 percent of global methane emission. Environment Programme. The COP31 climate talks to be held in Turkey later this summer will focus on accelerating action against methane. Lower Costs The pressure is on the big tech companies to invest in clean energy and carbon removal to combat emissions from AI-driven data centres. Google has invested in Terradot after taking a stake in the company in 2024. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that removal was needed to achieve the global climate goals. However, critics argue it could allow companies to pollute now. The companies stated that the model could be replicated and 'expanded' across Brazil’s 1.5 million hectares of rice fields, as well as in other rice-growing areas such India and Vietnam. Terradot will launch multiple pilots in different countries by 2026. Commercial scale-up is scheduled for?2028. Google and Terradot didn't disclose the price for the credits. However, a publicly revealed?2024 agreement for 90,000 tonnes of carbon removal by Terradot implied that the price was around $300 per ton. This is a lot higher than the $100 threshold many developers target to stimulate broader demand. James Kanoff, CEO of the company, said that while it is not yet $100 per ton at this time, "it represents a significant step towards that". Terradot stated that verification can add up to $100 per ton in enhanced rock weathering costs. This allows carbon removal to continue for longer, before third-party verifying would reduce this cost.
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Bonds steady as stocks rise, oil prices fall
Global stocks rose?on Wednesday, as recent increases in government bond yields?and oil prices stalled in advance of an important U.S. Federal Reserve?interest-rate decision later that day. MSCI's global equity index gained 0.2%, after having fallen in the two previous sessions. A?index? of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.6% to end a four-day loss streak. The majority of European bourses were trading higher. The pan-European STOXX 600 gained 0.6%, and benchmarks in Germany, France, and Spain also saw gains. Futures that track the major U.S. stock indices also point to a higher opening after the benchmark S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday, for the second consecutive session. The yield on the benchmark Treasury bond of 10 years reached its highest level since 2007. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note in the United States fell to 4.97%, after reaching 5% earlier in the day. On Tuesday, it rose above the threshold for the first time since 2007 to reach its highest level since 2007. Federal Reserve announces its policy at 2 p.m. Kevin Warsh will hold a presser at 2 p.m. ET, followed by the announcement of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. It's a matter of credibility that he raises rates now. "If he does not hike this evening, there could be problems for the Fed's independence, credibility and the stock market," Michael Nizard said, the head of multi-assets and overlay at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, in Paris. It's also about guidance and a response function from the Fed. It's difficult to define?exactly? what a Fed reaction function is today. U.S.?President Donald Trump repeatedly expressed a preference to lower interest rates. He said last month that the U.S. will stop trading with nations with whom it has a trade surplus if the Fed does not reduce rates. The traders have mostly ignored those comments, and now see a rate increase as almost certain. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool the markets are pricing in a 92.7 percent probability that the Fed will announce a 25 basis-point rate hike. This is up from 61.2 percent a week earlier. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. against six other currencies) held steady at 99.64. This is near a two-week peak. The Japanese yen remained at 155 to the dollar, after slipping in the two previous sessions. This is ahead of Friday's Bank of Japan policy announcement when the markets expect interest rates to reach their highest level since 31 years. British stocks rose and the pound fell 0.1% after an inflation reading in the UK did not change expectations before the Bank of England's policy announcement on Thursday. The markets were expecting the rates to stay the same. Rates are still expected to increase by the end of the year. Sterling could strengthen in coming weeks if BoE announces hikes amid rising inflation and energy costs. The Japanese yen could also weaken if BoJ's messages fall short of market expectations," UBS Global Wealth Management analyst said in a?note. As fuel supply disruptions sparked by the Middle East conflict raise concerns about energy-driven price inflation, central banks around the world are considering tightening monetary policy. Brent crude futures fell 1.5% to $107.1 per barrel on Wednesday after rising 2.9% the previous day. This was due to reports that Saudi Arabia offered additional crude cargoes through Oman, which eased concerns about 'the extent of supply disruptions. Digital assets have continued to fall after a steep selloff during the previous session when the U.S. Senate voted not to advance comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation backed up by Trump. Bitcoin rose 0.1%, to $75,954, after falling 4% the day before. Ether was flat, at $2,411, following a drop of 6.3% in the previous session.
Copper prices rise with active Chinese demand
Prices of copper rose on Wednesday as a result of signs of demand from 'China, the world's largest consumer, although traders were wary of possible volatility in advance of the Federal Reserve of America's decision to raise interest rates.
In open-outcry official trading, the price of a metric tonne of three-month 'copper' on the London Metal Exchange rose by 1.1% to $14,231 per metric ton.
Metal used for power and construction is down by 4% after hitting a record-high of $14,875 in the past week. The premium of COMEX futures prices against the?London price fell dramatically.
The Yangshan copper premium
David Wilson, BNP Paribas' head of metals strategies, said that Chinese buyers were taking advantage of a recent drop in copper prices to replenish their stocks, which helped boost import premiums.
The U.S. Copper Comex stock market has seen a slowdown in the last few days after it was reported that the White House still had not decided on refined tariffs for copper as officials continue to assess fears that higher prices may increase manufacturing costs.
LME copper has become less tight, and spreads have moved into contango
Zinc prices rose 0.3% to $3,835 in official activity. This was supported by tight inventories outside China which keeps the premium of the LME Cash contract over the 3-month contract.
Aluminum increased by 1.1%, to $3288. This is due to concerns about the impact of the Iran War on Gulf producers' supplies. Aluminium Bahrain produces aluminium at "around 80%" of pre-Iran War levels, according to its CEO.
Nickel rose 1.7% to $16,240 after hitting $15,820 earlier in the session, its lowest level since December 30. Lead increased by 0.8% to $1.888, and tin rose 1.3% to $52,650.
(source: Reuters)