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NY Fed survey shows rising expectations for inflation in the near future
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report on Tuesday that said 'Americans became more concerned in June about the near-term inflation pressures, even though they predicted a moderated gasoline price increase and an upbeat view?on their current and future finances. The Bank of Canada's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that inflation in a year was 3.7%, up from the 3.5% recorded in May. This is the highest level since September 2023. The June reading was the highest since June 2022. The central bank officials who are most interested in the five-year outlook for inflation expect it to remain at 3%. Energy prices have risen due to the Middle East conflict, putting pressure on prevailing inflation readings. The May?price index for personal consumption expenditures was up 4.1% from the same period a year earlier, compared to April's gain of 3.8%. The conflict caused a sharp increase in the price of gasoline and diesel. This was on top of inflation pressures which had already exceeded 2%. In a television interview earlier on Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams said that "inflation is still too high." He added that energy prices had retreated and this suggests future price pressures would moderate. John Williams, the New York Fed president, said in a TV interview on Tuesday that "inflation was still too high." He added, "I feel a bit more optimistic about the near-term outlook for inflation because of the energy prices declines we're likely to see." Fed officials are closely tracking inflation expectations because they agree that where people think prices will go has a big impact on where we currently stand. The public is largely in agreement that they expect price pressures to return to their target levels due to the stability of long-term expectations readings. Kevin Warsh, Fed Chairman in his first press conference last month, said: "I'm pleased to report that the members of [the Federal Open Market Committee] have been unambiguous and unanimous. This Committee will deliver stability in prices." At the June policy meeting, the Fed kept its target interest rate range at 3.5% to 3.75%. However, a number central bankers questioned the need for a rate increase later in the year due to inflation concerns. In the New York Fed survey, it was found that, although inflation is expected to moderate in the near term, 'the public has become less concerned about gasoline prices.' These have moderated since June, reaching a level not seen since August 2022. In the report, it was also revealed that in June, the public had upgraded its views about the labor market. They were also more optimistic about their current and future personal finances. The public's views are mixed on the future and current access to credit. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; Michael S. Derby)
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Sources say that Russia's largest refinery has halted processing following a drone attack
Two industry sources said on Tuesday that the largest oil refinery in Russia, Omsk, had halted operations following an attack by a Ukrainian drone. The attack on the refinery in Siberia was the longest-ranged Ukrainian attack of the war, which is now well into its fifth anniversary. Fuel shortages are likely to be worsened by the shutdown of the plant. It is the top petrol producer in Russia. The attack on Monday damaged the facilities at the Omsk refinery. Anatoly Seryshev said that no plant personnel were injured in a Tuesday statement. Seryshev stated that a damage assessment was underway and that competent services had organized restoration work. He did not elaborate on how the refinery's operation was affected. Gazprom, the owner of the refinery did not respond immediately to a comment request. Sources claim that a crude distillation system, CDU-10 (which accounts for 38% of production capacity at the plant with a daily capacity of 24,580 metric tonnes), was damaged and set ablaze in the attack. According to the data of the Saint Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, the Omsk Refinery has stopped selling petrol and diesel since Tuesday. Sources said that another primary unit, CDU-11 was also shut down. The unit accounts for 37%?of the plant's capacity, and can process up to 24,000 tons of?oil per day. Sources said that while the unit itself was not damaged, certain network links vital to its operation had been damaged. The sources said that CDU-11, which began operations in 2023, may resume its work in the near future. The Omsk refinery is home to two primary refining unit CDU-7 and CDU-8. Each has a capacity of 10,000 tons. The plant could theoretically restart them. Sources indicate that the Omsk oil refining plant will process 22 million tons or 440,000 barrels of oil per day in 2024. This would produce 5 million tonnes of petrol and 8 millions tons of diesel. Reporting and Editing by Tomasz Janovowski
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Oil spikes due to Iran fears, but stocks fall on AI concerns
The global stock market fell on Tuesday, as investors remained concerned about the sustainability if the AI-driven rally. Oil prices also rose due to renewed Middle East tensions. In early trading on Tuesday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite fell 0.97% while the S&P500 dropped 0.32%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat. The stock market took a hit despite Samsung Electronics' forecast of a 19-fold increase in operating profit from April to June, which reached 89.4 trillion dollars ($58.4billion), the third consecutive quarter that it had achieved a record operating profit. The results did not reassure investors but rather sparked heavy selling of Samsung and rival SK Hynix, weighing down South Korea's Kospi and other tech-heavy Asian market. Investors are increasingly questioning whether artificial intelligence-related profit growth can be sustained in the event that supply bottlenecks for key components, such as memory chips, ease. Kathleen Brooks said that these results are a record, but they have not placated the markets. Instead, the strong results have caused fears that the AI chips sales boom 'cannot be maintained. A report that the Chinese startup DeepSeek is developing its own AI chips could further weigh on the markets. This would reduce their reliance?on other major processor manufacturers to train and run their AI models. SK Hynix will join Nasdaq in a $28 billion listing this week, making it one of the largest new share sales ever. The chipmaker is looking to capitalize on the AI boom. Oil and gas stocks outperformed semiconductors and tech shares in Europe, which has a lower exposure to volatile AI stocks. The STOXX 600 fell 0.16%. Oil and gas stocks gained from the rise in crude prices as a result of signs that U.S. Iran peace talks are losing momentum. The MSCI index of global stocks was down by 0.36%. Axios, citing US officials, reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards fired two missiles on Monday at commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports said that the ships sustained significant damage but no injuries. Brent crude futures increased by about 1.9%, to $73.37 per barrel. NATO MEETING SET TO ?START IN TURKEY U.S. president Donald Trump is expected to attend the NATO summit in Turkey starting on Tuesday. He has been urging Europe to increase defence spending, and has clashed?with European leaders?over Iran and Greenland. Trump stated on Monday that the U.S. will either "finalize the deal" with Iran, or "finish the task." He renewed his threat of military action after Tehran showed defiance in the wake of the funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei. The?dollar index (which tracks the U.S. dollar against six other currencies) was unchanged at 100.87. The yen climbed above 40-year lows and traded a little stronger for the day, at 161.9 per dollar. The traders were on alert, given the signs of a possible change in strategy from Japanese authorities. Before the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday were released, the yield?on U.S. benchmark 10-year notes rose 2.4 basis points to 4.503%. These could give investors a better idea of how the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will approach monetary policy. (Satoshi Sugiyama contributed additional reporting from Tokyo; Mark Potter and Kevin Liffey edited the article)
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After Ukrainian drones attacked Russia's largest refinery, motorists queue up for fuel in Omsk
After a drone attack on the largest oil refinery in Russia, motorists in the city of 'Omsk are lining up for fuel. This is one of the most serious attacks by the Ukrainians inside Russia since?the start of the war. Video showed a?but orderly? line of cars waiting at a fuel station on Monday evening, just hours after the terrorist attack. Witnesses in the Siberian City reported that there were longer queues Tuesday, but they were still manageable -- only around 20 minutes. Fuel was also available. Some people on the social network VKontakte complained about drivers who they called "morons" buying things out of panic. Vitaly Khotsenko, regional governor, said that local authorities have discussed the fuel situation. All necessary measures are being taken to "normalise", logistics and deliveries at private filling stations. NGS55.RU, a local media outlet, reported that a large private network has completely halted the sale of petrol to individual motorists. Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in the last few months, primarily to cripple the source of funding Moscow's war efforts. This will lead to widespread fuel shortages for the Russian people. According to sources, the Omsk refinery owned by Gazprom Neft that was affected processed approximately 23 million metric tonnes last year or about 460,000 barrels per daily. Any disruption in its operations will likely lead to fuel shortages. Russia has, over the past four years, targeted Ukraine's energy sector and power grid. In the last week, Russia has launched two massive attacks against Kyiv which have resulted in dozens of deaths. The attack on Monday damaged the facilities at the Omsk oil refinery. No one was injured at the?plant. Anatoly Seryshev said that damage assessment was underway and that competent services had organized restoration work. Alexander Novak, Putin's energy point man, said that the fuel market in Russia was tight due to the summer peak and "unscheduled refinery repairs." Mark Trevelyan, Tomasz Janowowski and Mark Trevelyan edited the report.
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Dangote will fund the proposed Kenya refinery through cash, bonds, and an IPO
Nigeria's Dangote Group plans to finance a ?proposed 700,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Kenya through ?internal cash flow, bonds and an initial public offering, a ?senior company executive told ?. It is estimated that the refinery will take three years to complete. The project would provide refined petroleum products for Kenya and other neighbouring countries. This would reduce East Africa’s dependency on imported fuels. It would also fulfil Dangote's ?ambition to expand fuel-processing capacity across Africa following the start-up of its 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery ?in Lagos. The site has been chosen, soil testing is underway, and the design?and engineering has begun. Edwin Devakumar is Dangote Industries vice president for oil and natural gas. The refinery would be the largest refining investment made by Dangote Group outside Nigeria. It will be located on a small island called Lamu off Kenya's coast. Devakumar stated that the refinery will be funded by a mixture of cash generated internally, bonds and proceeds derived from a planned IPO. He didn't disclose the exact cost of the project, but said that it would be similar to the Lagos refinery. The 'Lagos refinery', built by?Aliko dangote - ranked by Forbes as Africa’s richest man - cost more than 20 billion dollars by the time the facility began operation in 2024. The initial estimate was $9 billion, but costs increased due to a relocation of the site, challenges with engineering, currency weakness, COVID-19 and global inflation. Dangote has been expressing interest in building a large refinery?in East Africa for several months. The company had previously looked at the port city of Tanga in Tanzania before switching to Kenya citing logistics, infrastructure and market concerns. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Isaac Anyaogu)
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Fed minutes: Gold remains stable as attention turns to Middle East tensions
Gold prices remained steady on Tuesday as investors watched the escalating violence in the Middle East. They also awaited the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting from June to get an idea about the outlook for monetary policy. Spot gold was unchanged at $4168.62 an ounce as of 09:01 am ET (1301 GMT), but U.S. gold futures for delivery in August rose by 0.3% to $4180.50. Bullion reached a two-week-high on Monday, as markets lowered their expectations for a near-term rate hike due to softer than expected U.S. jobs data. Peter Grant, senior metals strategist and vice president at Zaner Metals, said, "I believe the Fed's focus is on inflation, so higher prices for a longer time seems to be the most likely Fed path." According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders still expect a 60% probability of a rate increase in September. The Fed's minutes of the meeting, due to be released on Wednesday, are now the focus. Two tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran announced that there would be no peace talks until U.S. president Donald Trump stopped his repeated threats of re-starting the war. Following the news, oil prices rose. When inflation worries keep interest rates high, gold is often under pressure. China's central banks has continued to purchase gold for the 20th consecutive month. Its reserve reached 75.44 millions fine troy pounds?by June 30, up from 74.96 one month earlier. Hong Kong has launched a central clearing system for gold and re-opened gold futures trades as it seeks to be a regional hub for gold. Silver spot fell 1%, to $61.48 an ounce. Palladium rose 0.8%, while platinum rose 1.2%, to $1.650.47. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Diti Pujara)
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WHO: Ebola outbreak still spreading in Congo
A World Health Organization official stated on Tuesday that the Ebola outbreak in Congo is not stabilised yet and continues to spread as population movements fuel transmission. The Democratic Republic of Congo confirmed 1,561 cases and 506 deaths in the worst outbreak of the rare Bundibugyo?Ebola species, for which no cure or treatment has been proven. Unfortunately, it is still in an expansion phase. "We would like to be able to say that it has stabilized, but we can't say this yet," Anne Ancia told reporters via video link, WHO representative for Congo. She was in Bunia at the epicenter of a swine flu epidemic. She stated that there were still major challenges, including the fact some Ebola treatment centers are?90% filled. She said that another problem is the fact that workers who fall ill in Mongbwalu, a mining town, do not seek treatment locally but rather travel and spread the disease to other regions. She said that the people who were returning too late, and dying with their families, are those who should be stopped. Many of the victims of the epidemic are healthcare workers. This includes those who contracted the virus before the outbreak was declared mid-May. Some healthcare workers do not have the necessary equipment to protect themselves against Ebola. The virus is spread through bodily fluids. Recently, healthcare?workers from the hardest-hit province Ituri went on a strike to protest delayed salary payments. Most?of the healthcare workers resumed work yesterday. Ancia said that there are still "a few groups" who are not satisfied. She added that those on strike were in charge of the transmission within a camp for displaced people. (Reporting and editing by Miranda Murray, Kevin Liffey and Emma Farge)
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Three people are killed in Gaza by Israeli strikes, say medics
Health officials in Gaza said that Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday killed at least 3 Palestinians. Medical personnel reported that an Israeli airstrike killed a man in Khan Younis' Mawasi neighborhood and injured two children. The Israeli military claimed they had targeted Hamas militant. In the evening of Tuesday, another Israeli strike?hit near an encampment that housed displaced families west of Gaza City. One person was killed and five others were injured, according to medics. A third airstrike took place in Khan Younis, where one person was killed and three others wounded. The Israeli military has not commented on the two incidents. Israel has "repeatedly conducted strikes" in Gaza since an October ceasefire mediated by the U.S. was reached. It says it targets militants that threaten its forces, or those who participated in the attack of October 2023 on Israel. Hamas accuses Israel of violating a ceasefire. Nikolay Mladenov is the Board of Peace envoy for Gaza appointed by U.S. president Donald Trump. He has stated that both sides have broken the agreement. According to the figures released by both sides, since the ceasefire came into effect eight months ago more than 1,070 Palestinians - many of whom were civilians - and four Israeli soldiers, have been killed in Gaza. Hamas doesn't reveal the number of its soldiers killed. Israeli troops control over 60% of Gaza. They patrol what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls a buffer zone designed to prevent Hamas attacks. Netanyahu has said that Israel will not withdraw from the territory. Israel's aerial and ground bombardment on Gaza has displaced almost?the whole population of 2,000,000 people. Most of them now live in tents, or in damaged buildings along a small coastal strip of territory controlled by Hamas. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones. Nidal al Mughrabi)
Andy Home: The new metals trading environment is a result of the breakout in Shanghai nickel.
Metals trading and the world it operates in is constantly changing.
Political and military conflict has shattered what was once a highly globalised supply chain into regionally different parts.
Metals are moving away from the single benchmark global set by the 149-year old London Metal Exchange (LME), which is now owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing.
This changing reality is evident in the opening of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) nickel contract for overseas firms.
Shanghai has already become the leading force in China in terms of establishing benchmark metals price in its domestic market.
ShFE wants to expand its?reach? across the?Asian region by capitalising on the Chinese Nickel Ecosystem that connects mines in Indonesia and refineries on China's mainland.
It is not a fight to the death between London and Shanghai, or even the CME Group of the United States.
This more fragmented trading environment offers opportunities to all.
NICKEL BREAKOUT
Beijing has been trying to internationalise renminbi for years, and the ShFE is part of that effort.
Nickel is a good choice for a test run.
In less than a decade, Indonesia became the world's largest supplier thanks to Chinese investment.
Nickel products are shipped to China to feed the huge stainless steel and battery industries.
The Sino-Indonesian Nickel Trade offers the ideal forum for a regional shift of pricing towards China and the Chinese Yuan.
This is also a timely boost for the Shanghai Nickel contract which, after the2022 Crisis, suffered a bigger volume hit than London, when the melt-up of prices forced both exchanges into suspension.
Shanghai nickel futures volumes have tripled from 2025 to the first half of the year, but the comparison is inflated by the 30.5"metric tons that were traded in January when the markets were gripped with a feverish speculative exuberance.
What's the impact on LME?
Volumes of London nickel futures also increased by 22% on an annual basis. Nickel, including options, registered the highest growth rate amongst the LME's core base metal products from January to June.
It seems to be a situation that the Chinese would call a win-win.
While LME Nickel stocks have peaked, Shanghai nickel inventories continue to grow at levels last seen in 2017.
The surplus Chinese metal is now gravitating to ShFE storage and away from LME, suggesting the emergence of two distinct physical pricing centers.
Steel Ties
The LME, while capturing a portion of the nickel market in China, is also capturing a piece of the steel market. This is done through a U.S. Dollar futures contract that is settled against the Shanghai Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC). Trading will begin in October.
The LME has a Chinese HRC Contract, which was settled against the price reports of Argus for export cargoes at Tianjin port in China.
Shanghai's contract is dwarfed in volume by the domestic contract because China is the largest steel market in the world.
Last year, the LME's China HRC Contract traded 1.4 millions tons of steel. The Shanghai contract dealt with 1.7 billion tonnes.
This LME-ShFE tie-up looks like a test run of future collaboration, just as Shanghai's Nickel foray could be a model for other metals.
FRACTURING Landscape
The opening of Chinese prices is a reflection, of course, of China's centrality in both production and demand for metals.
The eastward drift of the global markets reinforces this sense.
Copper traders are already familiar with the feeling. Since President Donald Trump announced the possibility of U.S. tariffs on imports last February, the CME's U.S. price has been wildly different from the LME.
Two Doctor Coppers are in existence, one in Washington and the other trying to assess what is happening around the globe. Three Doctor Coppers may be on the way if Shanghai also goes international with copper contracts.
Everyone's a winner?
The nickel market is experiencing a realignment of trade patterns, and this has led to an increase in regional arbitrage.
The global trading volume of base metals has been increasing. The LME achieved a record volume year in 2025, and the turnover increased by 18% in the first half of 2026.
Shanghai's base-metals contracts saw a significant increase in activity during the first half of the year, with zinc being the exception.
CME is also enticing investors to invest in metals.
Volumes of its micro-copper contract increased by 76% in the first half 2026. The contract was only a tenth of the size as its flagship contract, but the turnover reached 3.5 millions tons.
Trading activity on CME's weekly Copper Options Suite has increased by more than fourfold compared to last year.
The world's three biggest metals exchanges are not fighting for a fixed?pie. Instead, they appear to benefit equally from a pie that is expanding as more participants trade metal in more places around the globe.
Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)