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Norilsk Nickel, a Russian company, sees a global palladium surplus in 2026 of 0.3 millions ounces.

Norilsk Nickel, a Russian company, sees a global palladium surplus in 2026 of 0.3 millions ounces.
Norilsk Nickel, a Russian company, sees a global palladium surplus in 2026 of 0.3 millions ounces.

Norilsk Nickel, the world's biggest palladium producer said that it expects to have a global palladium surplus of 0.3 million (Moz), excluding investments and stock movements, in 2026.

The demand for palladium, excluding investments, is expected to reach 9.1 Moz by 2026, and 9.3 in 2027. Meanwhile, the supply will be at 9.4 and 9.5 respectively.

Nornickel stated in a review of the market that preliminary estimates indicate investment demand for palladium may reach 0.3 Moz in 2026. This would effectively bring the market into balance. A similar trend is expected in?2027.

Nornickel expects that global primary palladium output will fall 2% annually in '2026, to 6.1 Moz. This is due to lower grades in Russia and continued caution by North American producers. South Africa production should remain largely stable. It expects to reach 6.2 Moz in 2027.

The Russian Platinum-owned Chernogorskoye mine is expected to contribute the most to the palladium supply in 2027 as the production returns to the low-grade areas affected by 2026.

The Chernogorskoye mine is expected to support a return to growth in 2027.

Russian Platinum will?start producing at its Arctic Polymetallic Project in November. After that,?PGM bearing concentrate will be supplied to Nornickel pursuant to an offtake contract. The project will add 0.5 Moz of palladium annually to Russia's production over the long-term.

Nornickel, a'major producer of refined Nickel,' said that it expected a nickel surplus in the global market of 20,000 metric tons for this year. This will rise to 55,000 metric tons by 2027.

It warned that the nickel outlook was highly dependent on Indonesia's situation, as the world's largest producer of the metal. (Reporting and writing by Anastasia Lyrchikova, Editing by Andrew Heavens & Joe Bavier; Reporting by Alessandra Prrentice)

(source: Reuters)