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Russell: There is plenty of crude oil in Asia, but the refined fuels are scarce.
Asia's crude oil imports are expected to return to pre-Iran Conflict levels, but the flow of refined products is still constrained. Fuel prices reflect this supply stress. According to data compiled by Kpler, the world's largest energy consumer region is expected to import 22.18 millions barrels of crude per day in June. This represents an increase from 20.35million bpd imported in May. The arrivals in June are still below the 26.76m bpd average for the three months leading up to the United States' and Israel's attack on Iran, which took place on February 28. The figures are still well above the 8-year low of 18,77 million bpd that was recorded in April, when the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by Iran. In July, it's likely that the reopening the narrow waterway where up to 20% of crude oil and refined products were transported before the conflict will enable more oil to be shipped to Asia. Kpler has tracked only?5,76 million bpd in seaborne arrivals for June. This figure will likely be revised upwards before the end of the month as more cargoes arrive for assessment, but it confirms that China has dramatically reduced its crude imports due to the increased prices caused by Iran's war. China's seaborne exports fell to their lowest level since February 2018, with Kpler data indicating arrivals of 6.78 million bpd. This is down from an average 11.37 million in the three-month period before the Iran War. It appears that while crude imports in Asia ex China are on the rise, it is more difficult to return flows of refined products to their pre-war level. Asia's refiners will export 9.20 million bpd (light and middle distillates) in June. This is up from 6.99 million bpd, in May, and 6.28 million in April. Although this might seem like a good recovery, the figure for June is still 13% lower than the 10,56 million bpd that was shipped in the three-month period before the beginning of the conflict (February 28). In many Asian countries the refinery inventories are also down, so that there is a tight market for fuels like diesel and gasoline. FUEL PRICE PREMIUM Prices in the region have fallen from their record highs during the conflict but remain elevated relative to crude oil prices. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, ended on June 19 at $80.57 per barrel. This is an increase of 11.2% over the close of February 27. It's also a drop of 36.3% compared to April 30's war high of $126.41. Jet fuel was the refined product that suffered the most from the conflict, as it has the smallest buffer of stock and degrades more quickly than other fuels. Singapore jet fuel On June 19, the price of a barrel was $112.49, which is still 20.4% higher than the $93.45 it was the day before war began. Last week, gasoil, which is the main component of diesel, was priced at $111.61 per barrel. This represents a 22.1% increase from the $91.42 price on February 27. Meanwhile, gasoline The closing price of the war ended at $103.56, an increase of 30.6% over its previous close, which was $79.30. As refiners in Asia begin to receive more crude oil, they are likely to start increasing processing rates and increase the supply of refined product. The margins of refineries remain high due to the "premium" of fuels compared to crude. A typical Singapore refinery enjoys a profit of $11.51 per barrel, which is 34% higher than the $8.59 average for the last year. The speed at which refined fuels are able to return to their pre-war levels will depend on the ability of the United States to keep its ceasefire agreement with Iran and the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. In the medium term, it is more important to track vessel movements through the Strait of Gibraltar than to listen to social media bluster from the various parties involved in the conflict. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Snapshot-Indian stocks, rupees, swaps, and call at close
STOCKS: The benchmark BSE Senex added 0.38% to 77 094.07, while the broader NSE Index rose 0.37%?to?24,102.90. Reliance Industries led this rise,?following?its annual meeting, and a rebound of IT stocks. Meanwhile, improved sentiments from Middle East Peace Talks and lower oil prices helped to support broader risk appetite. RUPEE: The Indian rupee fell 0.38% against the?U.S. The dollar dropped to 94.6775 on Monday and ended a six-day run of gains. GOVERNMENT BONDS The benchmark 10-year bonds were quoted at 100.6475 Rupees with the yield remaining largely unchanged at 6.8473%. Traders were cautious due to the lingering U.S. Iran truce risk and tight liquidity in the banking system. INDEX SWAPS OVERNIGHT: The swap rate for the five-year index was also down more than four basis points at 6.3025%. CALL MONEY India's overnight TREPS and call money rates were both at 5.50%. (Reporting from Nishit Navin, Bengaluru. Editing by Joyjeet Das.
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Miner Sinda launches US IPO Roadshow with $1.97 Billion valuation target
Sinda, a silver?miner in the United States, launched its initial public 'offering' roadshow on Monday. The company is aiming for a valuation of up to $1.9 billion and is contributing to a busy stock market debut season. The company plans to sell 17,75 million shares priced between $11.25 - $13.25 each, raising up to $235.2 millions. This year, the number of new stock offerings has increased as the equity markets have improved and investor sentiment has improved. Uber-backed Lime, and Oaktree's digital?infra company ITG launched their IPOs as well on Monday. Sinda is part of the portfolio company The Electrum Group, an investment firm that focuses on natural resources. The company is headed by Thomas Kaplan, founder and chairman of the company. He is a prominent investor who specializes in precious metals. The mining industry has benefited from the high commodity prices. Silver prices have risen over the last year, as investors seek the safety of precious materials and solar panel and electronic manufacturers demand it for industrial use. Sinda is a silver exploration company that focuses on developing the Sinda Property, a large primary silver deposit in Guanajuato. The company claims the property has the potential to become a "globally significant" mining operation. In its IPO prospectus, it stated that "large primary silver assets like the Sinda Property" are rare. Only?approximately 26 percent of global mined supply will come from primary silver mines by 2025. Sinda's IPO shares are expected to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "SIND". Morgan Stanley, Scotiabank, and BMO Capital Markets were the main underwriters of the IPO. (Reporting and editing by Joyjeet Das, Jonathan Ananda and Manya Saini from Bengaluru)
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Indian stocks rise on Reliance and IT rebound; Mideast hope lifts sentiment
Indian shares rose on Monday, led by Reliance Industries following its annual general meeting, and a rebound of IT stocks. Meanwhile, improved'sentiment' from Middle East peace talks and lower oil prices boosted broader risk appetite. After a tense start, marked by Tehran's announcement that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again and U.S. president Donald Trump repeating threats to resume attacks on Iran, investors were able to calm their nerves. The benchmark Nifty 50 index in India rose 0.37%, to 24,102.90. Meanwhile, the Sensex gained 0.38%, to 77,094.07. The two indexes posted their sixth gains in seven sessions. This was due to the falling oil prices, a moderated?foreign-outflows and government and central bank measures to support and revive overseas purchasing. Brent crude fell by 1.9% and now trades below $80 per barrel. If crude remains below $80, and the peace process continues, this improves earnings visibility, and can help to bring foreign investors back into Indian equity markets, said Rajesh Kothari. He is founder and chief investment office of investment management company AlfAccurate Advisors. Foreign portfolio investors who have sold a record amount of Indian shares, $30.6 billion, this year, purchased $515.2 millions of stocks on Friday. This was their largest daily purchase since February. Thirteen out of 16 major sectors gained. The broader small and mid-caps gained 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Reliance Industries gained 1.3% following its annual general meeting. Brokerages said that the Jio Platforms, as well as the AI and new energy business of the oil-totelecom conglomerate would drive growth. IT index rose about 0.75 percent after Accenture's poor demand forecast. Cipla gained 4,7% and topped the Nifty 50 gainers in percentage after Citi forecast positive near-term triggers.
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EU court Brazil as strategic partner for global race to critical minerals
Jozef Sikela, EU Commissioner for International Partnerships, said on Saturday that the European Union sees Brazil as a partner to help diversify Brazil's mineral supply. The deal, he says, will benefit Brazil's development goals. The Commissioner visited the Rare Earth Research & Processing Center of Australian Mining Company Viridis in Pocos de Caldas in the southeastern state Minas Gerais. This is one of the four priority projects chosen to accelerate the collaboration between EU and Brazil. Sikela stated that the European approach places emphasis on sustainable business practices and local rare earth processing. This is in line with Brazil's efforts to export processed minerals rather than raw materials, from a sector where it has the second largest critical mineral reserves. "What's important is also Brazil moving from the low-margin businesses so that basically the value is created here in the country," said the commissioner in an interview while he was visiting the Viridis facility. He highlighted that Brazil is the EU's largest strategic partner in Latin America, and that it is a growing economy. Sikela stated that the partnership will allow the EU secure supplies via purchase agreements, while also helping Brazil to build refinery capacity, access new technologies and move higher up the supply chain in order to produce at higher margins. Viridis’ pilot mining project, inaugurated by Viridis in Minas Gerais in May, is capable of processing 100 kilograms per hour of ore and producing up to?2,92 kg of mixed rare-earth carbonate (MREC). Viridis intends to invest $360 millions in a commercial facility capable of producing 15 tons of MREC annually from 2028. The plant will cover a?228.62km2 area of licenses located in Minas Gerais. Sikela stated, "I like this project (Viridis), because it delivers on its objectives. It creates jobs, it creates new partnerships and it brings new technologies. DEAL IN SIGHT Sikela noted that a letter of intent, signed in this month by Viridis and Belgian chemicals firm Solvay to supply MREC could develop into a larger partnership which would include technical processing support. Viridis CEO Rafael Moreno said that discussions with the EU have advanced to a point where a Solvay agreement could be finalized before the end of July. Viridis' success in Brazil comes during a global race to find rare earths and critical minerals. Europe and the U.S. are trying to reduce their dependency on China, the world's largest producer of materials vital to electric vehicles (EVs) and defense systems. Sikela, when asked about the landscape of the world, said that the European strategy is to reduce "dependencies", across global supply chains. This follows shocks like the pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. He also stressed that the issue extends beyond China. He said that the EU prioritizes projects in Brazil involving critical minerals, like nickel and lithium. Details are still under negotiation. Sikela, when asked if the EU had been late in the race for assets in Brazil he responded that "our value proposition is more beneficial than the other's," citing sustainability, job creation, and education as the key differentiators. Moreno stated that the company aligns with European guidelines for diversifying the supply chain of rare earths, and favors an open approach to partners from multiple regions. He said that Viridis had advanced negotiations with buyers in Europe, and the U.S. at the end of the month. (Reporting: Marta Nogueira Editing: Aurora Ellis
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FOREX Dollar gains as investors monitor US-Iran discussions; yen nears a 40-year-low
Dollar remained firm as investors grew optimistic about a possible deal after the first round U.S. Iran talks. The yen remained near a 40-year-low and the pound slipped when UK Prime Minister Keir starmer announced he would resign. Qatar and Pakistan, who act as mediators between the U.S.A. and Iran, said that the two countries had agreed on a roadmap to reach a final agreement to end the conflict in 60 days. Investors were worried about the threats of U.S. president Donald Trump to restart war in the Middle East. They also fretted over the announcement by Tehran that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures are now trading at $79.1 per barrel, a drop of nearly 2%. Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone. He said: "The physical markets remain tight, and this should provide some support. But flows in FX, commodities and energy will continue to be heavily affected by developments in that complex." The pound fell 0.1% to $1.322, which is not far from the 'lows' for the day, after Labour leader Starmer announced he would step down. This could allow Andy Burnham, a rival of Starmer's, to become the seventh Prime Minister in 10 years since the Brexit vote. Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said: "At this moment, Andy Burnham seems to be the frontrunner. He has reassured the gilt market he would adhere to fiscal rules and there have been reports that he is working with respected economists." This will help to limit the risks of the pound or gilts falling in value over the short term. The Yen is nearing a 40-year low The Japanese yen was struggling around 161.73 per dollar last week, barely above the two-year low. If the yen falls below 161,96, it will be at its lowest level since 1986. Satsuki Katayama, the Japanese Finance Minister, said on Monday that his authorities are ready to react appropriately at any moment to currency movements. Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst with StoneX, said that the MOF might be rubbing their necks as they watch USD/JPY soar to a 2024 high. "Yet, they may feel powerless to act against it - as intervening in the face of a hawkish Fed or strong U.S. Fundamentals could prove futile and costly." The yen is losing gains after a round interventions on April 30 when Tokyo spent an unprecedented 11.7 trillion yen (72.44 billion dollars). This was due to a Federal Reserve hawkish tilt that led traders to increase bets for rate increases in this year. CIBC's head of G10 currency strategies?Jeremy Stretch stated that even if the BOJ raised rates more quickly, traders see the Fed likely to increase U.S. interest rates at least one time this year. This means the dollar will likely remain strong. He said: "The rate spreads remain unfavorable, and in a world of U.S.exceptionalism, the path of least-resistance, excluding any intervention risks, would be to see dollar/yen trade higher." Investors have increased their bullish dollar position in the last week. The 'Commodity Futures trading Commission data shows that speculators have made the largest bet in 16 months on the dollar rising, valued at nearly $30 billion. The dollar index (which tracks the U.S. Dollar against six other currencies) was around 101, its highest level in a year. The index has risen nearly 3% in the past year, largely due to expectations that interest rates would remain high for longer. (Alun John, London; Ankur Banerjee, Singapore; Muralikumar Anantharaman; Himani Sarkar and Aidan Lewis; William Maclean and Aidan Lewis)
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Oil prices fall as traders consider fragile Iran peace talks
European stocks and U.S. Futures dropped slightly, while oil prices dipped Monday. This was after Iranian negotiators announced that 'progress' had been made with peace talks between the United States and Iran. This helped calm fears about the fragile process of ending the Iran War. After Prime Minister Sir Keir announced his resignation, UK assets remained steady. This paved the way for a seventh leader in ten years. Iran war talks were overshadowed earlier by Tehran's announcement that it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping had slowed down after U.S. Central Command reported 55 vessels had passed on Saturday. This prompted U.S. president Donald Trump to make threats of new?attacks. Officials from Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement stating that the first round of talks was concluded, and progress had been made in developing a roadmap for?reaching a final agreement within 60 days. Brent crude futures, which had been gaining ground in the early stages of discussions, have now fallen 0.7% to $80.07 per barrel. This is a far cry from its peak in May at $126.41. The STOXX 600 index in Europe slid and ended the day down by 0.1%. U.S. S&P futures also traded 0.1% lower. Susannah Streeter is the chief investment strategist for Wealth Club. She said that there appears to be progress being made during talks in Switzerland toward a lasting resolution, and oil prices are down again. It is obvious that there is a long way to go and new obstacles could arise before a lasting deal is signed. The apparent progress of the peace talks boosted Asian stocks overnight. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.6% while South Korea's hot market rose 0.7% after surging 11% last Friday on demand for semiconductors. UK OUTLOOK STARMER RESIGNATION CLOUDS The pound fell 0.1% on Monday to $1.322 after Starmer announced that he was resigning, as had been widely reported over the weekend. Andy Burnham, the former Manchester mayor, is expected to succeed Starmer. Analysts said that a key issue for nervous UK bond markets will be who will become finance minister. Nick Rees of Monex Europe, the head of macro-research, said that a new leader would not change fundamentally the fiscal situation that they will inherit. It's what happened to Starmer and we have yet to see a credible plan on how to?deal with this." The euro fell?0.1%, to $1.146 after reaching a low of $1.1418 on Friday. Treasuries remain under pressure after a hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve, which led to markets pricing in a 75% probability?of an early rate hike. Futures suggest that the Fed will tighten by 38 basis points before year's end, and yields on 2-year bills have risen as much as four basis points since early 2025 to reach a high of 4.230%. Fabio Bassi is the head of JPMorgan's cross-asset strategy. He said: "Our baseline is patience, and we believe that the margin for error is small, and there is a limited tolerance for inflation. There are genuine risks for earlier hikes." The Fed's hawkish view helped push the dollar 0.3% higher to 161.71yen. Only the threat of Japanese interference prevented the currency from reaching its 40-year high 161.96 in 2024. (Reporting from Sydney by Wayne Cole and Harry Robertson; Editing by Shri Navaratnam Kate Mayberry Aidan Lewis).
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Oil prices fall as traders consider fragile Iran peace talks
After Iranian negotiators announced that 'progress was made in peace negotiations with the United States, this helped calm fears about the fragile process of ending the Iran War. Qatari and Pakistani officials also released a joint statement announcing that the first round of talks was over and that progress had been made in a roadmap for a final agreement to be reached within 60 days. The talks were overshadowed earlier by Tehran's announcement that it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping had slowed down after U.S. Central Command?said 55 ships passed on Saturday. This prompted U.S. president Donald Trumpto threat fresh attacks. Brent crude futures retreated from their early gains to drop 0.7%, or $80.07 per barrel. This is far below the peak reached in May of $126.41. The STOXX 600 index in Europe slid and ended the day down 0.1%. U.S. S&P futures also traded 0.1% lower. Susannah Streeter is the chief investment strategist for Wealth Club. She said that there appears to be progress in talks taking place in Switzerland toward a lasting solution. Oil prices are also down again. It is obvious that there is a lot of work to be done, and more obstacles could arise before a lasting deal is signed. The apparent progress of the peace talks boosted Asian stocks overnight. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.6% while South Korea's hot market rose 0.7% after a surge of more than 11% on demand for semiconductors stocks last week. MARKET NARROWS ODDS ON FED HIKE Treasuries remain under pressure after a hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve in recent weeks, which led markets to price a 75% probability of a rate increase as early as September. Futures suggest a 38 basis point tightening by year's end, and yields on 2-year bonds rose to their highest level since early 2025. Fabio 'Bassi, JPMorgan's head of cross-assets strategy, said: "Our baseline is patience and a first rate hike in the second quarter of 2027. However, we believe that the margin of error and tolerance for inflation are limited and there is a genuine risk of earlier hikes." The Fed's hawkish view helped to push the dollar up by 0.3%, reaching 161.77 yen. Only the threat of Japanese interference prevented the currency from rising?to its 40-year high 161.96 in 2024. Sterling fell 0.37% to $1.319 as a result of rising dollar and political uncertainty. According to reports, Keir starmer is evaluating his future as a politician after Andy Burnham's resounding victory in the recent election to parliament led more Labour Party ministers to call for him to step down. Skye Masters is the head of NAB's market research. She said that "Gilts are likely to remain under pressure this week due to the uncertainty surrounding a possible challenge against the UK Prime Minister and what it means for the fiscal outlook." The euro fell 0.3% to $1.144 after hitting a low of $1.1418 on Friday, a three-month high. (Reporting from Sydney by Wayne Cole and Harry Robertson; editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kate Mayberry and Kate Mayberry).
Metal prices boosted by hope for US-Iran agreement
Prices of industrial?metals rose on Monday as optimism grew that initial U.S.-Iran negotiations could pave the path for a deal ending the war.
At 1039 GMT, the benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.9% to $13,723 per metric ton. The price of copper, which investors use as a measure of economic health has risen by more than 15 percent since March 23. Mediators said that U.S. officials and Iranian officials had made "encouraging" progress in agreeing on a 60-day plan to end the 'war. But tensions remained over Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz, after Tehran again'shut down the waterway' and U.S. president Donald Trump threatened new attacks.
Tom Price, Panmure Liberum analyst, said that the market was desperate to believe that "the U.S. - Iran war" is over. But in reality this 'ceasefire' does not appear to be robust. "We have definitely entered a phase in which the markets are trying to return to pre-war conditions. Investors are once again looking to the pre-war themes surrounding copper." The copper prices have been driven up in recent years by the forecasts for strong growth of demand from data centres required for AI, grid investments and electric vehicles.
Aluminium prices are expected to rise further due to the increased shipments of aluminium from the Middle East. The Middle East houses 9% global smelting capability.
Aluminum prices have dropped 10% since June, when concerns about Middle East supply and global shortages reached their peak.
The LME Cash Contract premium has been decreasing over the past three months, indicating that there are fewer concerns about the supply of aluminium.
Reduced oil prices will reduce the production costs of aluminium and zinc - both highly energy intensive metals. This, traders say, will weaken the price support factor, turning it into a negative factor.
Aluminium rose 0.3%, to $3406 per ton. Zinc gained 1.1%, to $3595, while lead firmed up 0.1%, to $1956. Tin climbed 3.2%, to $55,000, and nickel grew 1.2%, to $17.800.
(source: Reuters)