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Energy secretary: Companies will add 40 million barrels to US SPR when the Iran war ends.
After the war in Iran, companies that have borrowed oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve will receive an 'extra 40 mln barrels - of crude as premiums. Fuel prices have risen since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran began in early February. Wright, however, said that he was not concerned about low stock levels at?the SPR. Wright told Fox Business's "Varney & Company," "I am not concerned because we are not'selling' any barrels of crude oil. We're supplying oil 'to the market 'in the short-term when it is needed, and we trade those barrels." "For every barrel we use, we get 1.25 barrels next year." He said that we would add 40 million barrels after the conflict, and at no cost to taxpayers, to the SPR. The DOE is lending 133 million barrels from the SPR (which is held in underground caverns located in Texas and Louisiana) to companies who will pay back in crude oil, with premiums up to 24 percent. The Department of Energy says the system will help stabilize markets without costing U.S. tax payers. (Reporting and editing by David Ljunggren, Andrea Ricci and Katharine Jackson)
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A Russian billionaire sanctioned by the US says that high interest rates are a 'trap' in the economy
The central bank's strict monetary policy was criticized by some of Russia's wealthiest businessmen on Friday. One said that it had created "a trap" for the Russian economy. This is the most public criticism of the financial authorities?since a?rate increase in 2024. The economic growth will slow down to 0.4% this year from 4.9% last year due to high rates, an overvalued ruble, and Western sanctions. Government measures are unlikely to have a significant impact on growth. Since 2022, most of Russia's billionaires supported President Vladimir Putin in his war against Ukraine despite Western sanctions that prevented them from accessing their luxury yachts and properties in Europe and North America. The war is now in its fifth year and there's no end in sight. Profits are down, taxes are up, access to Western markets is still blocked, and private assets have been nationalized. Roman Trotsenko is a billionaire who owns companies in the transport, fertilizer, and real estate industries. He compared the central bank’s monetary policies to a “Volcker shock,” referring to aggressive rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker from 1979 to 1982. He told a group of businessmen, government officials and bankers at the largest economic conference in Russia, held by Sberbank. "This was an?big experiment. No one else has done it." The key interest rate in Russia is 14.5%. It is down from 22% but still considered too high by businesses, even though inflation has dropped to 5.6%, from 10%. In his address to the main plenary of the conference, Putin expressed that he understood the "deep sorrow" and "cries of concern" of businessmen over high borrowing costs. However, he said the economic foundations of Russia were solid. "ALREADY A Miracle" Trotsenko claimed that economic history books will describe the wartime policy of the rate as "Zabotkin’s trap into which Russia fell mistakenly," referring the First Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zabotkin who is the architect of the current policy. Zabotkin applauded Trotsenko’s speech, but told reporters later that the central banks was "fully aware" of Russian business's woes. Dmitry Mazepin of Uralchem, the owner of the fertiliser manufacturer, compared the actions taken by the central bank to cool the economy with hostile Western powers. What is the external challenge? They want to slow down our progress, but they also, as the President said, 'want to inflict strategic defeat. What's going on internally? What does the central bank mean when they say "it wants to cool the economy?" Mazepin spoke. According to Forbes, Russia's richest person, Alexei Mordashov is the owner of Severstal. He said that domestic steel demand had dropped by 30% over the past three years, which led the company to cut 24% of its portfolio and its cash flow was negative. "I'm sure that almost everyone in this room has seriously re-evaluated their investment program." With such volatility and instability, it is obvious that we will see a further decline in investment and a?further fall in GDP." Russian billionaires are usually'refrained from making public statements on the conflict in Ukraine. Many Russian billionaires have ceded their control over their companies in writing and are now fighting in courts for the lifting Western sanctions. German Gref, CEO at Sberbank who wrote Putin's economic program in the early 2000s which led to spectacular rates of growth for several years, said after the panel, that Russia's meagre rate of growth under current conditions is "already an miracle". (Additional reporting and editing by Darya Corsunskaya, Elena Fabrichnaya)
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How Trump's ceasefires have failed to end Middle East violence
Residents of Gaza and south Lebanon, as well as northern Israel and Kuwait, were all targeted this week, despite a ceasefire allegedly in place in their respective regions, arranged by the United States. Israeli forces are still active in Gaza and Lebanon. Hezbollah's rockets struck northern Israel and Iranian attacks targeted Kuwait's airport. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, commented on Wednesday about the continued violence in the Middle East. He said that ceasefires involved "shooting?in a moderate manner", rather than an end to all fighting. Three truces that his administration has negotiated are meant to stop the "warfare". While the major fighting has decreased, people are still dying and munitions continue to fall. Here's how the ceasefire -- and ongoing combat -- is playing out. WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE CEASEFIRE? On October 10, 2025 the United States brokered an agreement between Israel and Hamas that ended major warfare. The ceasefire agreement included a halt in all fighting, Hamas freeing all of its remaining hostages, Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal phased, increased aid, and the opening a border crossing to Egypt. Trump's plan for a ceasefire included agreements on Hamas disarmament, a new Gaza Government without the group’s involvement, reconstruction in Gaza, and a complete Israeli withdrawal. Despite the fact that all hostages have been released, aid to Gaza hasn't increased significantly. Hamas is not willing to disarm. Israel has increased its control over the territory and hasn't begun reconstruction. Israeli airstrikes on Gaza continue, with more than 900 Palestinians killed since the ceasefire, including nine Thursday. Four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza by sporadic Palestinian militant attacks. Why is there still violence in Lebanon? A ceasefire was only partially implemented in 2024 after Israel and Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah fought. Both sides accused the other of violating it. In March, after the war against Iran broke out, open warfare resumed. Hezbollah fired into Israel while Israeli forces seized large areas of southern Lebanon. They also pounded other areas with airstrikes. Trump announced on April 16, after rare contact between the Israeli and Lebanese government representatives, a 10-day ceasefire. Israel mostly avoided striking Beirut, although intense fighting continued in southern Lebanon. According to Lebanese officials, who do not differentiate between combatants and civilians, Israeli strikes since April 16 have killed hundreds. The total death toll is now more than 3,500. Israel claims that 26 soldiers and 4 civilians were killed by Hezbollah in attacks since March. Iran wants to include a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon as part of any agreement to end the war it has with the United States, Israel and to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Trump announced on Wednesday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to implement an entirely new ceasefire contingent upon Hezbollah's departure from southern areas. Israel claims it can continue military operations in spite of the ceasefire, and Hezbollah rejects the truce. Fighting continues. Will the US and Iran cement their ceasefire? On February 28, Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, aiming to destroy its nuclear and missile programs. Both countries expressed the hope that the theocratic regime would be overthrown. This came after a 12-day conflict last year, in which Israel and the United States struck many Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders. The?Strait of Hormuz has been closed off despite the deaths of many senior Iranian figures. This has impacted the global economy and slowed down Gulf energy exports. Early April, the United States announced that it had reached a ceasefire agreement with Iran. Talks would follow to discuss a "lasting end to hostilities", a "reopening" of Hormuz and an end to a U.S. port blockade. There has not been a full agreement reached despite the repeated rounds of indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan or Qatar. Negotiations on the nuclear issue would be put off to a later date if a deal is reached. Iran has also attacked Gulf States including Kuwait in the past week. Why haven't the stopfires been effective? The first phase of all three agreements has failed to produce a lasting ceasefire. The combatants in each case have refused to make the painful concessions necessary to progress beyond the first phase transitional ceasefires. Sometimes, they have turned to military action in order to achieve goals that they had to?set aside when the ceasefires were agreed upon or to test boundaries of the agreements. Urban Coningham is a research fellow at London's Royal United Services Institute. He said that when there's not much movement or a clear political horizon it's difficult to maintain a ceasefire because the parties have no incentive to keep it up if there are no changes. He said that the diminishing influence and assertiveness by regional powers, as well as the United Nations, have made it more difficult to maintain long-term agreements. (Compiled by Angus McDowall, edited by Cynthia Osterman).
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What is the secret to economic success? Stephen Jen: A good baseball team
What do the four most important tech economies in the world - the U.S.A., Taiwan Japan and South Korea have in common? They are baseball fans. It may not be a mere coincidence. This raises questions about the prospects for two other baseball-loving countries: Venezuela and Cuba. In the U.S., baseball was created in the mid-19th century. It is a combination of rounders and cricket. Baseball is popular among those who have had a long-term relationship with America, just as British sports are in Commonwealth countries. Baseball became popular in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea after World War II, when the U.S. maintained a?heavy military presence. Today, these three economies together with the U.S. represent about 90% of the $40 trillion global tech market capital. The U.S. accounts for most of it, but the three other economies still make up almost 13%. This could not be a mere coincidence. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan all benefitted from the focus they placed on education during the post-war period, which helped to create highly numerate population, as well their lack of natural resource, which forced them to develop industries geared towards export. Their close relationship with America has also arguably played a crucial role. It was not just the U.S. Military that had an influence on this part of Asia in the decades after World War Two. American companies also played a role. This became especially noticeable in the technology sector over time. Since years, there have been many interactions between companies in Silicon Valley and entities in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan (both universities and companies). Over 20% of the 10,000,000 tech workers in the U.S., are Asian. Many Asian students also attend school in the U.S. Since the 1970s, research and ideas have been exchanged. China complicates this thesis, as you can imagine. China is a technology giant but it's not a baseball nation. Its rise was due to state-directed policies, its size, and access the U.S. led global economic system. Not because of historical ties with America. This distinction could prove to be the key. Baseball is not the reason for tech success but rather a sign of American influence. This helps to explain why China’s relationship with Silicon Valley differs from that of other Asian tech giants. On Deck? This is an interesting question. What about Venezuela and Cuba, two other baseball loving nations? These two nations are not economic giants. Their affinity for baseball points to their historic ties with the U.S. It is a question of whether or not these old links can be transformed into renewed economic, institution, and strategic alignment. Venezuela became one of the largest oil producers in the world after it was discovered early in the 20th century. The mid-20th century saw U.S. oil companies invest heavily in Venezuelan oil exploration and extraction, which in turn supplied an enormous amount of crude oil to America. In this period, American oil workers also helped popularize the game of baseball in Venezuela. It quickly became a national sport. The relationship between the United States and Venezuela deteriorated sharply after the rise in inequality and the fall of energy prices in the late 1990s helped to pave the path for Hugo Chavez’s socialist movement. Baseball remained, even though most U.S. companies had left. Some may remember that, weeks after the U.S. arrested and captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, in January, Venezuela beat the U.S. baseball team in the World Baseball Classic Final, which was highlighted by U.S. president Donald Trump in a recent press conference. Baseball is not mentioned to suggest that it leads to tech success. Rather, I want to emphasize the long-standing relationship between Venezuela and the U.S. It is not difficult to imagine a similar relationship being rekindled. Before Chavez, Venezuela exported half its oil production to the U.S. A prolonged period of underinvestment has reduced its production to 1.0 million barrels per day. Venezuela's historic ties to the U.S., as well as its vast energy reserves could make it a natural ally again. This is not so unlikely, given the warming relationship between Washington DC and the current Caracas government. Joining the Team Finally, there's Cuba. Cubans and Americans who visited the island in the late 1800s taught them how to play baseball. The sport took off fast, and today more than 400 Cubans play in the U.S. Major Leagues. This affinity is also a reflection of a long-standing relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. Following the Spanish-American War in 1898, Cuba came under U.S. protection until 1902 when it became independent, although the U.S. maintained the right to intervene in Cuban matters until 1934. The proximity of the two countries, as well as their shared history, has helped to strengthen relations between them. Over the years, however, corruption and inequality culminated with Fidel Castro, who overthrew Batista's government in 1959. This aligned Cuba with the USSR in the Cold War. Cuba, unlike Venezuela with its oil wealth, does not have a clear path to progress. The current economic situation of Venezuela is dire. It has high inflation, blackouts, and other shortages. This is partly due to the fact that it no longer receives low-cost energy from Caracas. Cuba's proximity to the U.S., which was a major concern during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, makes it in the best interest of the largest economy in the world to support positive changes. The history of the U.S. suggests that, given today's complex geopolitical background, it is best to focus on countries with the ability to call balls and strikes. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. (Writing and editing by Anna Szymanski, Marguerita Choy and Stephen Jen)
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Siam Cement, Thailand's Siam Cement division, sells Chandra Asri shares for $763 million
Thailand's Siam Cement announced on Friday that its unit sold a nearly 15% stake in Indonesian conglomerate Chandra Asri Pacific at the beginning of June for $24.9 billion ($763.10 millions). According to LSEG, SCG Chemicals is the second largest shareholder of Chandra Asri, behind Indonesian business magnate Prajogo Pangestu's Barito -Pacific. Chandra Asri didn't immediately respond to a comment request. The MSCI removed the Indonesian firm from its domestic global standard index in May, causing it to lose over 80% of their value. Stock market in the country has also suffered, as investors have lost confidence due to fiscal concerns, governance of equity markets, central bank autonomy risks and changing commodity export policies. The benchmark has lost 35% annually in the last year. Siam 'Cement' said that the sale was part of its strategy to reduce debt and reallocate funds to growth projects, such as the Long Son Petrochemicals Ethane Feedstock Enhancement Project in Vietnam. The?company initially acquired a %30 stake in Chandra Asri in late 2011 for 3.76 trillion Rupiah. ($1 = 32.6300 baht) (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk and Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
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Russian businessmen sanctioned by the authorities accuse them of setting a "trap" in economy
Russian financial authorities created a "trap" for the Russian economy with their tight monetary policy, forcing it into stagnation. This was their most public criticism since an interest rate increase in 2024. The economic?growth will slow down to 0.4% in this year, from?4.9% last year, due to high interest rates, an overvalued ruble, and Western sanctions. Government's proposed measures won't provide much of a boost. Since 2022, most of Russia's billionaires supported President Vladimir Putin in his war in Ukraine despite Western sanctions that prevented them from accessing their luxury yachts and properties in Europe and North America. The war is now in its fifth year, with no end in sight. Profits are falling, taxes are rising, access to Western market still denied and the largest nationalization drive since 1990. Roman Trotsenko - a billionaire in the transport, fertilizer, and real estate industries - compared the central bank's policy with a "Volcker Shock," referring the aggressive rate increases of the U.S. Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker from?1979 to 1982. He told a group of businessmen, government officials and bankers at the largest economic conference of Russia in St Petersburg that "this was a huge experiment and no one else has done it since." The key interest rate in Russia is now 14.5%. This is down from the previous high of 22%. However, it is still considered too high by businesses, as inflation has dropped to 5.6%, from 10%. Trotsenko claimed that economic history books will describe the wartime policy of the rate as "Zabotkin’s trap into which Russia fell mistakenly," referring the First Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zabotkin who is the architect of the current policy. ALREADY A MAGIC Zabotkin applauded Trotsenko’s speech, but told reporters later that the central banks was aware of the Russian business's woes. Dmitry Mazepin of Uralchem fertiliser company, compared the central bank's actions to cool the economy with hostile Western powers. What is the external challenge? They want us to be slowed down, but they also want to defeat us strategically, as President Obama said. What's going on internally? What does the central bank mean when they say that they want to cool the "economy" down? Mazepin spoke. According to Forbes, Russia's richest person, Alexei Mordashov is the owner of Severstal. He said that domestic steel demand had dropped by 30% over the past three years. The company had cut 24% of its investment portfolio and its cash flow was negative. I am certain that everyone in this room has a serious re-examination of their investment program. With such volatility and instability, it is obvious that we will see a further decline in investment and a greater drop in GDP. Russian 'billionaires' usually avoid making public statements about the 'war in Ukraine. Many of them have ceded formal control of their companies and are now fighting in courts for the lifting Western sanctions. German Gref, CEO at Sberbank who wrote Putin's economic program in the early 2000s which led to spectacular rates of growth for several years, said after the panel, that Russia's meagre rate of growth under current conditions is "already an miracle". (Additional reporting and editing by Darya Corsunskaya, Elena Fabrichnaya)
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The ROI-Market Map: the financial week in six charts
Six charts in one week. Market Map will present a summary of the week's financial performance with six charts selected by Open Interest columnists. We will highlight the major trends, but also some surprising and often overlooked movements. We've said a lot in the past week. Now, let's let the numbers do the talking. (1) "DARK" OIL RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy columnist: In recent weeks the trickle of oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz accelerated as traders adopted stealth measures to cross. The strait's traffic is still a fraction of what it was before the war, but an examination of oil reserves in the Gulf tells us a different story. SURPRISE MIKE DOLAN is a ROI Finance & Markets columnist. The U.S. Economic Surprise Index, compiled by 'Citi and measuring the extent to the which incoming data beats forecasts, reached its highest level in 2023, as the 'Iran War and Energy Shock unfolded and the AI Investment Boom continued apace. (3) BUYERS STRIKE CLYDE RUSSELL ROI Asia Energy and Commodities analyst: China's seaborne imports of crude?oil dropped to its lowest level in almost a decade, as refiners balked when asked to pay higher prices prompted by the war in Iran and?the resulting effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz. The drop in almost 5 million bpd compared to pre-war levels helps?to cushion?the loss of volume through the strait. There are concerns about how long China is willing to keep its inventories full and not import. (4) TALK ISN'T CHEAP, JAMIE MCGEEVER, Columnist at ROI Markets: If you are looking for evidence that we have entered an AI bubble, then exhibit A is what you need. Marvell Technology shares surged by 32.5% on June 2. What caused this record-breaking rise? The catalyst for this record rise was not a new investment or news of improved sales, nor speculation about a takeover. It was five words from Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang who called Nvidia "the next trillion dollar company." Marvell had a market capitalization of $75 billion three months earlier. Now, it's over $250 billion. It's still unclear if it will reach the $1 trillion mark, but the trend is positive. Will he, or won't he? Andy HOME, ROI Metals columnist: "All eyes are on this chart as the market evaluates the likelihood of U.S. president Donald Trump imposing imported duties on refined copper. The U.S. copper price on the CME has a growing premium to the international price of the London Metal Exchange ahead of the expected decision at the end June. (6) HELPING HAND GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transformation Columnist: South American crude oils have been overlooked'so far this season, but have grown 'faster than any other region. They are also playing a'meaningful role to help keep the global energy markets fairly well balanced despite Middle East turmoil. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and integrity, independence, as well as freedom from bias.
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India's GDP grew 7.8% from January to March on the back of resilient agricultural and construction output
The government announced a 7.8% growth rate in India's economy for the quarter of January-March, despite a weakening demand from abroad due to the conflict in the Middle East. The second print in a 'updated' data series, with a revised baseline year and a wider coverage, exceeded the 7.2% forecast in a survey of economists. The reading for January-March was a slight slowdown compared to the previous three month period. The government raised the growth rate for the three previous months from?7.8% to 8.0%. The data showed that gross value added (GVA), a better measure of economic activity at the base, increased 7.9% in the quarter between January and March. GVA removes volatile components from national accounts, such as indirect taxes or government subsidies. The National Statistics Office in India estimated GDP growth for the year ending March to be 7.7%. This compares with the forecast of 7.6% made by the National Statistics Office in February. V Anantha Nageswaran was the chief economist of the country and had predicted economic growth for the current fiscal year at between 7% and 7.4%. This projection was made before the Middle East conflict started. India is one of the countries that have been hardest hit by the Iran War, which has now lasted for a full month without any immediate prospect of a deal between Washington DC and Tehran. India is the third largest crude importer in the world and is heavily dependent on Middle East supplies. The Indian central bank stated earlier that the Middle 'East war will slow the growth of the Indian economy this fiscal year to 6.6%. It kept its benchmark interest rate at the same level, but signaled a possible shift to a hawkish stance due to the inflation pressures and weakness of the rupee. Financial markets have been impacted by the fact that domestic inflation is expected to increase and that fiscal and current accounts are likely to expand. A disappointing'monsoon with the lowest rainfall for 11 years could harm growth in the future. Construction activity increased by 8.4% in January-March compared to a growth rate of 6.7% in the previous period. The growth in agricultural output, which employs over 40% of the enormous workforce of the country, was 3.6% during the fourth quarter 2025/26, up from a revised 1.7% in the previous quarter.
The ROI-Hedging strategy has changed. Portfolios need a new playbook: Taosha Wang
Hedging portfolios has been based on the same rules since decades. However, as technology, geopolitics, and trading have changed rapidly, it is time to update the rules.
Old playbooks assumed stable relationships. Risk-off meant that bonds rallied. "Safe havens" cushioned withdrawals. Diversification could be left to autopilot.
This assumption has proven to be unreliable. Portfolios that are resilient will be required as a result of rising leverage, shifting global alliances and technological disruption. To capture long-term capital preservation and growth, a more deliberate approach is needed.
High-grade bonds are one of the most popular hedges.
U.S. government debt and investment grade credit are no longer considered "low-risk". Although they are low-volatility under normal conditions, their hedging power is often compromised during inflationary, liquidity, or fiscal shocks. This was demonstrated in 2022.
Multiple risks are present in the current environment, which could have a disproportionate impact on bonds. The United States' ongoing fiscal expansion raises concerns about debt sustainability, and threats to the independence of the central bank and growing tensions between America and its trading partners may impact foreign appetite for U.S. government debt.
In the meantime, credit indices have become more concentrated, as large tech companies issue bonds to fund massive capital expenditures in artificial intelligence.
This does not mean that bonds are unattractive. It means that investors need to be realistic and precise when it comes to the risks that they take on and how these risks can reduce bonds' traditional hedging abilities, especially during times of inflation and fiscal narratives.
SAFE, but not Stable
The term "safe haven" is no longer synonymous with "stable."
Gold is an excellent example. Gold's scarcity and long-standing role of a wealth store remain true, but its biggest buyers continue to be central banks that are not price sensitive. These official buyers have increased their purchases steadily since the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022.
According to the CBOE Gold Volatility Index, however, gold's recent volatility rose above 40. This?indicates that gold is at a higher level than most major equity indexes. This is largely due to gold's 200%+ rally since 2022, which has attracted a lot of speculative attention.
Gold is a familiar metal and the trading of it has become easier, attracting marginal buyers that are more price sensitive. Gold jewelry has been used as a store for wealth in India and Chinese households use bullion to diversify their currency exposure.
The significant increase in gold held by exchange-traded fund since 2024 is proof of this. Gold is more vulnerable to violent'momentum' swings. For example, the intraday 14% selloff of January 30th was the worst since 1980s. This was followed by the best gold performance in a single day since 2008.
From DIRECTIONAL to STATISTICAL Hedges
In the event that traditional safe havens are no longer available, it is not possible to rely on broad-based hedges. Statistical hedges become more important.
Statistical hedges are assets that have a low or negative correlation with a portfolio’s main risks. This reduces volatility without sacrificing returns. Assets that serve as statistical hedges may seem risky when viewed in isolation but are not so when viewed within a larger portfolio.
Chinese stocks, for example, have increasingly served as a hedge against U.S. equity risks. Two markets performed very differently during the "DeepSeek Moment" of early 2025 when an open-source, cost-efficient Chinese AI model forced investors reassess U.S. technology dominance and valuation margins.
Three forces will benefit Chinese stocks over the next year: a reevaluation its tech sector, stabilizing macro-conditions and renewed support for the private sectors.
MSCI China returned 28% in 2025 compared to 16% in the S&P 500. This was the best performance in absolute and relative terms for the former in many years.
Allocate to China, but do not consider it a bet on America. In a world where the unchallenged U.S. exceptionalism is fading, it's about hedging your portfolio?risk.
Focus on Regime Shifts
Statistical hedges are not classic hedges. They require constant reevaluation as macro regimes change. The correlations are volatile and shock-dependent. What hedges an inflation scare may fail to do so in a growth panic.
In 2022, for example, energy provided a good hedge because the main risks were inflation and disruption of supply. If we enter a period of excess supply in certain markets for energy, this hedging ability might not hold.
In an AI-driven cycle, which is unpredictable and susceptible to sudden changes, it is important to use a "macro régime lens".
The hundreds of billions in AI capex that we are currently?seeing seem to be boosting the global GDP, pushing forward demand for resources and increasing leverage. This trend could initially be inflationary but this may change as productivity increases are realized. AI-related job loss could also push central banks into easing even if resource constraints continue, increasing the risk of disorderly inflation.
Here, copper could be a valuable asset. Copper, which is usually viewed as a growth indicator rather than an investment hedge, faces a structurally increasing demand due to AI and renewable energy investments, posing a risk of severe and extended supply shortages. Copper could therefore?benefit not only from the AI boom, but also as a hedge to the risks of resource scarcity or disruptive inflation.
The new playbook for hedging is based on the principle that protection should be designed and not assumed. It is important to break the habit of labeling assets as "risk on" or "risk off." A hedge can be both volatile, headline-grabbing and profitable.
Investors must identify risks, choose the best hedges to mitigate them and monitor the risk landscape constantly. Diversification has become a discipline in a world of volatile correlations and macro-regime shifts. The views expressed are those of this author. Taosha is a portfolio director and the creator of Fidelity's "Thematically Thinking Newsletter". This article is intended for informational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice. This column is interesting to you? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)