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Can the Congo control the wild cobalt markets? Andy Home
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)'s February ban on cobalt exports has pushed the price of battery metal to a new low. The world's biggest producer wants to take it a step further by leveraging its unique geology to control a market that is notoriously volatile. Export quotas were set for this year, 2026, and 2027. The volume is less than half that of last year and the intention is to reduce global stocks which have accumulated after consecutive years of surplus. The Congo's state mineral regulator ARECOMS is entitled to adjust these quotas quarterly and to purchase any surplus production to export allowances. This will set the stage for a cobalt buffer store backed by the government. It is clear that this will be a long term project to control the market, but similar projects have not always had a positive history. The Flood: Stemming the FLOOD Congo exported to China 220,000 tons of cobalt in the form cobalt hydrxide last year. Over the past five years, output has doubled and outpaced global demand growth. The cobalt price fell to its lowest level in 10 years at the beginning of 2025 as a result of the surplus. This is the latest decline in a long history of rising and falling prices. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the February export ban increased the price of cobalt by nearly 50% and the price for hydroxide had more than doubled. Imposition of export quotas, effective next week, has given it a new boost. London Metal Exchange Cobalt now trades at $38,960 a ton, its highest level since February 20,23. The new market structure is a result of the quotas that are capped at 96.600 tons annually in 2026 and 2027. BMI estimates that if the Congo export restrictions are not changed, they will result in a market deficit in 2025-2027, which would lead to a reduction of supply chain inventory. Small operators and processing facilities without captive mines are exempted from the DRC government's exemption, which could provide some flexibility in supply. Not much. After three years of falling prices, the informal cobalt mines in the country are much smaller. BUFFER STOCKS Export quotas are split into two levels: a base of 87,000 tonnes, which is allocated to producers based upon historical exports; and a 9,600-ton strategic quota reserved for the Congo's minerals regulator ARECOMS. ARECOMS has the authority to purchase any excess cobalt that is produced by operators over their export allowance. Since exports were stopped in February, stocks within the country have been building. China's CMOC is the world's biggest producer, thanks to its massive Congolese copper and cobalt operations. It reported a cobalt stock of 57,000 tonnes at the end the second quarter. The decision will be made by the cobalt producer and any other producers whether to reduce production to match individual export permits, which have not yet been announced, or to continue production. The current high price of copper will not stop anyone from mining it, but does it make sense to run the cobalt-by-product through an hydroxide line when it cannot be exported? It is difficult to predict how much material the government can purchase because each company has its own set of economic calculations. The underlying intent is to use ARECOMS for market equilibrium, purchasing surplus material at low prices and releasing them when the prices rise. TOTAL CONTROL: It is not a new thing for commodity producers to try and control the market price. OPEC still has a strong influence on oil prices, but the state-backed structures that managed the coffee and tin market collapsed in 1980s. In the history of market failures, the bankruptcy of the manager of the tin-buffer stock still has a prominent place. The 1985 London Metal Exchange almost collapsed due to the tin shortage. This led to years of legal disputes. The scheme was not flexible enough to adapt to the changing dynamics of the market and collapsed under its own weight. The DRC enjoys a significant advantage due to its ability to control the global supply chain. The DRC accounts for over 70% of the global output, and it has by far most reserves. The market dynamics are also on its side. The cobalt market is growing despite the threat of alternative battery chemistries. The tin buffer manager was plagued by a waning demand as plastics and aluminium eroded the use of tin in the packaging industry. The governments are also rushing to stockpile strategic quantities of a metal that is deemed critical both for military and civil reasons. China has been an important strategic cobalt purchaser over the past couple of years, and the United States Defense Logistics Agency is currently tendering up to 7,500 tonnes of alloy-graded metal over the next 5 years. In such a market context, the Congo has the muscle to not only engineer a price floor but also to force the much-needed destocking along the entire process chain. The real challenge will be to manage the price increase that results. Any Congolese buffer-stock manager who sees cobalt prices increase too quickly and too far, as they did twice in the past ten years will be faced with the problem of simultaneously destroying demand and causing supply to grow in other parts of the world. Even with the backing of the state, it can be difficult to control a market, especially if the market has a long history of volatility. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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Gold rises above $4,000 key level after US rate cuts bets
Gold held steady on Thursday and remained above $4,000, which it had crossed for the very first time the day before. This was amid expectations of more rate cuts in the United States this year, as well as signs of eased tensions in Middle East. As of 0439 GMT spot gold was unchanged at $4,037.95 an ounce, wiping out a 0.5% decline in the early trade. On Wednesday, the metal reached a new record high of $4.059.05. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.3% to $4056.80. Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that the risks facing the U.S. employment market were sufficiently high to justify a rate reduction, but they remained cautious due to stubborn inflation. The minutes of their September 16-17 meeting, released on Wednesday, reflect this. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the markets are pricing in 25 basis-point cuts in both October and December with probabilities of respectively 94% and 79%. Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on Wednesday to implement the first phase of U.S. president Donald Trump's plan to end the bloody war in Gaza that has lasted for two years. The U.N. calls it a genocide. Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda said: "You can't ignore the significance of the agreement between Israel and Hamas, given that one of the main reasons gold has been rising is due to geopolitical risk. But it's likely just an excuse for taking profits after reaching another record." He added, "We continue to see the situation as constructive since all fundamentals (for Gold) are still pointing upwards." Gold is up 54% in the past year due to strong central bank purchases, an increase in demand for gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds and a weaker US dollar. The global markets have also been struggling this week due to political turmoil in Japan, France and the United States, as well as a government shutdown that continues. This has led to a flight of safety into gold. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and when there are geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Silver spot rose by 0.2%, to $48.98 an ounce after reaching a record high of $49.57 per ounce on Wednesday. Palladium rose 1.5% and platinum fell 0.4%. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nady, Ronojoy Mazumdar and Ishaan Aroo in Bengaluru)
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Stocks in Asia and Europe are a part of the MORNING Bid, which is a new way to ride the tech train.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The new headlines on Thursday were dominated by the ceasefire agreement that Israel and Hamas reached. It is hailed as the first step in ending the conflict of two years and re-building the war-torn Gaza. Oil prices fell 0.6% to about 0.7% as geopolitical risks eased. The AI effect still dominated equity markets as tech shares lifted Nikkei,N225> to record highs, while Taiwan rose 1.2%, reaching a new all-time peak. Blue chips in China returned from holiday with gains of 1,7%, reaching levels not seen since early 2022. Analysts warned that early readings of holiday spending are "underwhelming", even though the data is patchy. Beijing continues to be tough on rare earth minerals. It tightens export controls for processing technology and bars unauthorised overseas collaboration. Minerals have been an issue in the trade negotiations with the United States, and the White House may not like the new restrictions. The futures of the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones were stable after reaching new record highs over night. Chip stocks led this trend. Analysts from JPMorgan said that earnings growth for the Q3 reporting period is expected to be 20.9% in the tech industry, up 159% since June. Nvidia, Apple and other tech stocks have led the way in a rise of estimates for 81%. Overall earnings are expected to increase by 8% with revenue increasing 6.3%. The currencies have been more calm as the U.S. Dollar digests its massive 3.6% gain over the yen this week. It is currently holding at 152.50 after briefly testing 153.00 over night. The currency is approaching the levels that normally bring howls from the Finance Ministry. However, it's notable that the economist who advised the policy circle for Japan's potential new premier praised the benefits of a lower currency. The euro was at $1.1650, after just surviving a test to $1.1600 following some terrible industrial data from Germany. The markets are waiting to see whether French President Macron will name a premier who can last longer than a couple of days when negotiating a budget agreement. The markets will once again feel the impact of the delayed release of U.S. Economic data. This is because the longer the shutdown continues, the more likely it will be that future releases are also pushed back. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. German Trade Data for August Minutes from the last ECB Meeting. ECB president Lagarde and board members Cipollone, Lane, Bank of Spain Governor Escriva are among those who will be present. * Fed appearances: Barr, Musalem Bowman Kashkari, and some prerecorded remarks from Powell at a banking conference. (By Wayne Cole, edited by Christopher Cushing).
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Franco-Nevada CEO: Trump's policies are key to the gold price rally
The policies of U.S. president Donald Trump have devalued the dollar and fueled a gold rush, pushing prices to record highs above $4,000 per ounce in the past week, said Franco-Nevada's CEO, Franco-Nevada, on Thursday. Paul Brink, who spoke at a Melbourne business lunch, said that the combination of tariffs and a growing structural imbalance in the U.S. Trade Balance as well as the breakdown in trust in U.S. Institutions has accelerated "de-dollarisation". De-dollarisation is when countries stop relying on the dollar for financial transactions and as a currency reserve. Gold becomes more affordable to buyers who use other currencies when the dollar is weaker. Brink, the CEO of the $41.3 billion company that invests into gold mines for a portion of the revenue generated, said: "You could not have written a better script on how to undermine our dollar." The U.S. has lost its investment rating of 'AAA" due to tariffs that are reducing the U.S. share of international trade, and also eroding its currency. Its structural deficit is the worst of all the Group of Seven countries. He said, "The third thing that you need in order to be a reserve currency is an unbreakable faith in your institutions' independence." "And Mr. Trump undermined the banks. He plays a pivotal role in this. This, I'd say, is what drives this leg of the gold cycle," said he. Gold has risen 54% in the past year and now stands at $4,000 per troy-ounce. He said that a longer-term rally in gold prices will come from the way central banks view monetary policy, and their own reserves. He said that central banks are now aware of the fact that their citizens do not tolerate austerity. The way to get out of a recession is to increase liquidity. This will also boost the value of real estate and gold. He said that if gold prices are increasing at 9% per year, then the "rational goal" would be to estimate that in five years the gold price will reach $6,000 per ounce, and within 10 years it will hit $9,000. AUSTRALIA GROWTH Brink stated that Franco-Nevada plans to expand in Australia, and recently hired two people in the resource-rich Western Australia. He said that Franco-Nevada would also like to find junior goldmine developers. He told the audience that he was hiring because he wanted to concentrate more on Australia. Australia is the largest gold producer in the world. The product is set to The country's second-most valuable resource export Prices have risen to new records this year.
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Risk premium on oil drops as Gaza ceasefire reduces it
The oil prices dropped on Thursday as Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on the first phase of their plan to end the Gaza war, which eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the strength of the U.S. Dollar weighed down on commodities. Brent crude futures fell 34 cents or 0.51% to $65.91 per barrel at 0413 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 38 cents or 0.61% to $62.17. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said that WTI crude was trading on the lower side of the pendulum due to the reduction in geopolitical risks premium caused by the Israel-Hamas agreement. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas reached a long sought-after deal on a Gaza ceasefire, including the release of hostages. The plan was to end the war that has raged in the Palestinian enclave for two years. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said that he will convene the Israeli government on Thursday in order to approve the ceasefire accord. Investors have been weighing the risk of a regional war escalating into a global conflict that could affect oil supplies. Michael McCarthy, CEO Moomoo Australia & New Zealand and the investor platform Moomoo Australia, stated that the Gaza ceasefire will not affect the oil supply in Middle East, as OPEC+ haven't met their increased production targets. The group of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed on Sunday that the November production increase would be smaller than the market expected, thus easing concerns about oversupply. McCarthy said that the strength of the U.S. Dollar against the Japanese yen, and the euro has a general impact on commodities. Oil priced in dollars has become more costly for investors who hold other currencies. Investors viewed the stalled progress in a Ukraine peace agreement as maintaining sanctions against Russia. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that the total weekly U.S. supply of petroleum products, which is a proxy for U.S. consumption, increased last week to 21,990 million barrels a day. This was the highest since December 2022. Analysts at JP Morgan said that global oil demand started on a more moderate note in October, as a number of consumption indicators such as container arrivals in the Port of Los Angeles and truck toll mileage in Germany, along with container throughput in China all pointed to a slowdown in activity. In a note to clients, JP Morgan analysts reported that global oil demand was 105.9 millions bpd on average in the first week of October. This is an increase of 300,000 from last year and 90,000 below their estimates. They said that the pace of the global crude and product inventory build also slowed. It increased by 8 million barrels in the last week. This was the slowest growth rate over the past five weeks. (Reporting from Florence Tan in Singapore, Georgina McCartney at Houston and Christopher Cushing in Houston)
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Lithuania Scraps Second Offshore Wind Tender as Only One Bidder Applies
Lithuania’s National Energy Regulatory Council (NERC) has announced that the second offshore wind tender, which targeted the development 700 MW of offshore wind capacity in the Baltic Sea, failed as it attracted only one bid.NERC informed that only one participant had registered to participate in Lithuania’s second offshore wind tender before the deadline, which means the tender is deemed invalid.According to Lithuania’s Law on Renewable Energy, a tender is considered not to have taken place if fewer than two participants register to take part in it.Applications for participation in this tender were accepted from June 9 to September 8, 2025.The tender procedures were temporarily suspended by a government decision and later resumed on October 6, with applications accepted until October 7 inclusive.As reported earlier, Ignitis Group, a Lithuanian state-owned energy holding company, confirmed it submitted a bid in the tender.Ignitis Group Places Bid for 700MW Baltic Sea Offshore Wind TenderOn October 8, tender committee today decided to propose that NERC deem the tender as having not taken place. The corresponding resolution will be adopted at the next NERC meeting.NERC has emphasized that the decision to announce a new tender rests with the government.The tender committee consists of two NERC representatives and one representative each delegated by the Ministry of Energy, the Competition Council, the Lithuanian Energy Agency, Vilnius University, and Kaunas University of Technology.
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After a record-breaking run, gold takes a break.
On Thursday, gold took a break from its record-breaking run as investors booked profits. This was a day after the bullion broke the $4,000 per ounce barrier for the first ever time on the back of economic and geopolitical uncertainty and the hope that the U.S. will continue to cut interest rates this year. Gold spot fell by 0.4%, to $4,020.99 an ounce, as of 0302 GMT. It had hit a record-high of $4,059.05 per ounce on Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.7% to $4 040.70. Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on Wednesday to implement the first phase in U.S. president Donald Trump's plan to end the bloody war that has raged for two years between Israel and Hamas. The U.N. calls this conflict a genocide. Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda said: "You can't ignore the significance of the first phase deal between Israel and Hamas, given that one of the main reasons gold has been rising is due to geopolitical risk. But it's likely just an excuse for taking profits after another record was set." According to minutes from the Federal Reserve's September 16-17 meeting, released on Wednesday, officials acknowledged that the risks facing the U.S. employment market were sufficiently high to justify a rate reduction, but they remained cautious due to stubborn inflation. According to the CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in 25 basis-point cuts in both October and December with probabilities of respectively 94% and 79%. Gold that does not yield is a good investment in low interest rate environments and when there are geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The global markets have struggled in the past week due to political turmoil in Japan, France and the United States, as well as a government shutdown that continues. This has led many investors to seek safety in gold. Gold is up 54% in the last year due to strong central bank purchases, an increase in demand for gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and a weaker US dollar. Silver spot fell 0.1%, to $48.83 an ounce after reaching a record high of $49.57 per ounce on Wednesday. Palladium fell 0.1% and platinum 0.8%, respectively, to $1 447.81. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy)
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Iron ore prices rise on Chinese mill restocking but margin pressures continue
Iron ore futures rose on Thursday, boosted by the restocking of Chinese steel mills after National Day, but profit margins, and concerns about trade restrictions for steel, weighed on the market sentiment. As of 0256 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 1.09 percent to 791.5 Yuan ($111.03). On the Singapore Exchange, benchmark October iron ore traded at $104.35 per ton, up 0.14%. According to Hexun Futures, following the Chinese National Day, some steelmills have started replenishing their inventories. However, profit margins are still under pressure because of high coke prices. The iron ore markets have been quieter than usual in recent weeks due to the closing of Chinese markets. Analysts from ANZ have noted that further attempts to limit China's exports of steel are likely to cause concern in the market. The European Commission has proposed that the tariff-free steel importquotas be reduced by nearly half in order to boost the competitiveness and efficiency of EU steelmakers. The EU's steel producers are only operating at 67% capacity due to rising imports from the U.S. and U.S. Tariffs. These measures will push this up to 80%. The EU announced its plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on Chinese products and steel. China exported 368,000 tonnes, or 4% of its steel exports in 2024, to the EU. In the meantime, China's national iron ore buyer halted its purchases of iron-ore cargoes by Australian miner BHP earlier this month during annual price negotiation. This standoff could put further pressure on the margins of steel producers. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, have lost ground on the DCE. They fell by 0.7% and 1.09 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed.
Shanghai copper reaches a 16-month high due to supply concerns
Shanghai copper prices jumped by more than 16 months on Thursday, as China resumed trading after National Day. Concerns over supply from large mines supported the price in a market that was already tight.
By 0330 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 3.64%, to 86250 yuan per metric tonne ($12102.72). The contract reached its highest level since May 22, 2020 at 86 390 yuan earlier in the session.
As of 0333 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange had risen by 1.11% to $10,787.5 per tonne. On Wednesday, it briefly reached $10,815, a 16-month high.
The International Copper Study Group reduced its estimate of 2025 market surplus to 178,000 tonnes from 289,000 due to disruptions in major mines, including Freeport’s massive Grasberg mining complex in Indonesia which has been closed for a full month.
The group expects to have a deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026 compared to its previous estimate, which was a surplus of 209,000 tons.
Teck Resources reduced its production forecast at the flagship Chilean Copper Mine Quebrada Blanca until 2028 on Wednesday.
The dollar's downward trend also helped copper prices. The weaker dollar means that commodities priced in dollars are cheaper for traders who use other currencies.
The most active contact, which is tin, rose 2.86% to 286,010 Yuan per ton, as Indonesia, the top exporter, intensified its crackdown this week on illegal tin mines.
On Monday, Indonesia transferred assets, including smelters, equipment and PT Timah, a state-owned tin mining company, to the miner. President Prabowo subianto urged all authorities, including the military, Custom Office and Coast Guard, to continue efforts to stop illegal exploitation.
Nickel, aluminium, and zinc all saw increases of 1.49%. Lead increased by 0.89%.
($1 = 7.1265 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Dylan Duan and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu) $1 = 7.1265 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Dylan Duan, Lewis Jackson)
(source: Reuters)