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ICSG: Copper market will be in deficit by 2026 due to slower production growth.
International Copper Study Group (ICSG), a group of researchers, said that the global refined copper market will be in deficit by 2026. This is due to a slower growth of production. The copper price briefly reached a 16-month high on Wednesday, due to fears about possible shortages caused by a recent series of mine disruptions in Indonesia. Chile and Congo. In a statement released on Wednesday, the ICSG said that these incidents prompted it to lower its forecast of the global mine production growth in 2025 to just 1.4% instead of the 2.3% expected in April. These incidents will reduce the surplus on the market for refined copper to 178,000 tonnes by 2025 from the previous expectation of 289,000 tons. The industry expects that in 2026 the output of mines will increase by 2.3%, due to increased production from Chile, Peru, and Zambia, as well as the recovery of mining activities in Indonesia. As a result of the limited availability of copper concentrates, this growth is expected to be reduced to 0.9% by 2026. This will partly offset the higher production from scrap. The ICSG expects global refined copper consumption to increase by 2.1%, to 28,7 million tons, in 2026. This is compared to 3% growth in 2025. China is responsible for 58% global consumption of refined copper. The ICSG stated that "Asia is expected to continue as the primary driver of growth in the global economy, while demand in other important copper-using areas, such as the European Union and Japan, will remain subdued." (Reporting from Polina Devt, Anmol Chaubey and Anushree Mukerjee in Bengaluru. Editing by Vijay Kishore.
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Analyst says Ford could lose up to $1bn due to fire at aluminum plant
According to Evercore ISI analyst's note published on Wednesday, a fire at an aluminum plant in New York that will affect Ford Motors' F-150 truck production for several months could cost the automaker up to $1 billion. The company said that the fire at Novelis on September 16 will shut down a large part of its aluminum plant until the first quarter 2026. This will affect the supply of metal for Ford's most popular F-150 trucks up to the end of this year. After the news of fire, Dearborn's automaker stock dropped about 6%. Novelis is among the many aluminum suppliers that Ford has. Ford and Novelis have been working together closely since the fire three weeks ago. A team of Ford employees is dedicated to the problem and to exploring every possible alternative to minimize disruptions. The company refused to comment on Evercore's note. The automaker is facing a number of challenges, including high steel and aluminum costs, a rapidly changing trade environment and a battered supply base as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic strike and the 2023 union strike. Analysts say that while other automakers may be affected, Ford will likely see the biggest fallout. Evercore's Chris McNally stated in the note that "we believe this is a Ford issue at this time, although we continue to check knock-on effect for Toyota as well." The note outlined an EBIT hit of $500 million to one billion dollars. Ford started using an aluminum-based body for its F-150 truck over a decade before in order to reduce vehicle weight. The automaker will report its third-quarter earnings in the coming weeks. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton: Nora Eckert)
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Sources say that the Indian government is seeking a resolution to the dispute with Tata Charity arm.
Sources told Wednesday that two senior Indian ministers, in a rare intervention, have urged Tata Group’s charity arm to solve internal boardroom conflicts to ensure stability at its sprawling $180 billion business empire. A year after Ratan Tata's death, the discord in Tata Trusts has raised concerns that the bitter public spat of 2016 between Tata Sons and the charity could repeat itself, damaging the reputation of India’s most famous group. Tata Trusts holds a 66% stake of Tata Sons and has the power to make major strategic decisions. Tata Sons is responsible for 30 companies, ranging from autos to consumer goods. Two industry sources said that the disagreements within Tata Trusts over the past few weeks have been about which trustees would sit on the Tata Sons Board, the overall business direction of the group, and how to handle the planned exit by minority shareholder Shapoorji Palalonji. TATAS IS ASKED TO RESOLVE ISSUES BY THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT Two Indian ministers met on Tuesday with N. Chandrasekaran, the chair of Tata Sons and Noel Tata, the head of Tata Trusts in New Delhi to discuss and resolve the dispute. This was according to a government official and a source from the industry. Sources said that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman attended the rare direct intervention of the government. Indian media reported that the other senior official was Minister of Home Affairs Amit A Shah. The official who was present at the Tuesday discussions said, "The government wants to restore stability and resolve issues." Sources declined to name themselves as the matter was confidential. Tata Trusts & Tata Sons has not publicly commented on this matter which was widely reported in Indian Media. Both companies did not respond to requests for comment. India's Finance Ministry and Home Affairs Ministry did not respond to comments. Tata Trusts disagreed with Cyrus Mistry, the Tata Sons chairman, and it led to a legal dispute. Mistry died 2022, but his family firm, Shapoorji Pallonji still holds an 18% stake. According to industry sources, the current main disagreement among Tata Trusts trustees is how Shapoorji will implement his long-delayed plans to split with the Tatas and the impact on the conglomerate. Shapoorji pallonji has not responded to our request for comment. Aditya K. Kalra, Aftab A. Ahmed, Ira Duggal Aditi S. Shah, Khushi M. Malhotra and Joe Bavier contributed to the reporting.
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Three scientists win Nobel chemistry Prize for their work on 'Hermione handbag' materials
The Nobel chemistry prize was awarded to Omar Yaghi, Richard Robson, and Susumu Ktagawa for their work on a new molecular structure that could help combat climate change, and the lack of freshwater. The three laureates created molecular structures, called metal-organic frames or MOFs. These have large spaces that allow gases and other chemicals to flow. They can be used to capture carbon dioxide, store toxic gasses, or harvest water from the desert air. The award committee described the "unheard-of properties" of some of these materials. A porous material about the size of a sugar cube can have as much surface as a football pitch. A small amount of this material is almost as big as Hermione’s handbag from Harry Potter. Olof Ramstrom said that it can store huge quantities of gas within a small volume. USES COULD INCLUDE DEALING WITH 'FOREVER CHEMICALS' The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awards the prize, which has been around for more than 100 years. Winners receive 11 million Swedish crowns (about $1.2 million) and enjoy the prestige of being the recipients of arguably the most prestigious award in the field of science. Kitagawa said at the Nobel Press Conference that he felt deeply honored by the award. He said, "My dream is capture air and separate it into CO2, oxygen or water and then convert these materials to useful ones using renewable energy." The Academy stated that chemists had created tens and thousands of MOFs. Some of these "may help solve some of the greatest challenges facing humanity", adding that other uses include separating toxic "forever chemicals" from water, as well as breaking down traces in the environment of pharmaceuticals. Kitagawa, a Japanese professor, is at Kyoto University. Robson, an Australian professor, is at the University of Melbourne. Yaghi, a US professor, is at the University of California Berkeley. Robson is British-born, but moved to Australia when he was in his 20s. Yaghi is Jordanian and American. Science is the greatest equalizing force in the world Yaghi was raised by Palestinian refugees as a child in Jordan. His family lived with their cattle and a single room. In an interview on the Nobel website he stated that his parents were unable to read or write. He said that science is the most equalizing force in the entire world. Yaghi was 10 when he discovered a book about molecules in the school library. It was the start of his lifelong love for chemistry. He told the Nobel website that "the deeper you dig the more beautiful you will find the things." Robson claimed that he received the call from Stockholm about 30 minutes before the official announcement. He then celebrated in silence at his home near Melbourne. He said, "I cooked fish with my wife and did the dishes afterwards." He added that he recently gave up alcohol due to health concerns. He said, "I broke this rule by drinking a very cheap glass of wine." Next on Thursday, THIRD NOBEL 2025 PRIZE LITERATURE. In keeping with tradition the Chemistry Nobel Prize was announced as the third award in this year's awards. It followed those for Medicine and Physics announced earlier in this week. The Nobel Prizes for Literature, Science and Peace were established in 1901 by Alfred Nobel, a Swedish businessman and inventor. They have been awarded ever since, but with some interruptions, mostly because of the World Wars. Nobel himself was a chemist, and his discoveries in this field contributed to the wealth that he accumulated from his inventions of dynamite during the 19th century. The economics award was added later by the Swedish central banks. The chemistry awards, although sometimes overshadowed in favour of more famous laureates from the fields such as physics, literature, and peace, have still recognized many influential discoveries, including nuclear fission and DNA sequencing techniques. The chemistry prize was given to U.S. scientists David Baker, John Jumper, and Briton Demis Hassabis last year for their work in decoding protein structures and creating new ones. This has led to advances such as drug research. ($1 = 9,3436 Swedish crowns).
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Iraq and Exxon Sign Agreement to Help Develop Oilfield
Exxon Mobil returned to Iraq two years after it left, signing an agreement on Wednesday with Iraq to develop the large Majnoon Oilfield and expand their oil export infrastructure. OPEC’s second-largest producer wants to attract Western oil majors back and increase production, which has been constrained for years by wars, corruption and religious tensions. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said that Exxon had signed a deal, but provided few details. According to four sources familiar with the situation, the agreement will include a profit sharing agreement for crude oil and refined oil products as well as plans to upgrade the Iraqi oil exporting infrastructure in the South. Sources claim that Iraq's state-owned oil company SOMO, will also sign a contract with Exxon in order to secure storage space on the Asian market. SOMO and Exxon didn't immediately respond to comments. Iraqi state-run news agency INA reported that in September, SOMO had advanced discussions with Exxon about a potential agreement to secure Singapore storage capacity using tanks owned and operated by the U.S. major oil company. Iraq signed deals with major oil companies that left the country in the last two years. These include Chevron, France’s TotalEnergies, and the UK’s BP. Exxon was the first Western oil company to enter Iraq and develop oilfields after the U.S. invasion of 2003. It left the West Qurna Project due to what some sources describe as poor returns. The company also attempted to develop fields in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region despite Baghdad’s anger, but abandoned those projects because of what sources claimed were poor exploration results. Exxon sold its remaining interest in the West Qurna 1 Oilfield to PetroChina, who became the main contractor. Iraq's federal Government reached an agreement in September with the Kurdistan Regional Government and international oil companies, to resume crude exports via Turkey that had been suspended since 2023. This is expected to return up to 230,000 bpd to the international market at a moment when OPEC+ countries are increasing output to gain a greater share of the market. Reporting by Aref Mohammad in Basra, and Ahmed Rasheed from Baghdad. Additional reporting by Stephanie Kelly at London. Writing by Ahmed Elimam. Editing by Elaine Hardcastle and Emelia Sithole Matarise. Jason Neely.
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Indonesia claims 22 industrial zones near Jakarta are contaminated with caesium-137
Officials from Indonesia's Special Task Force on Radioactive Contamination said that they found Caesium-137 in 22 production facilities near Jakarta. A local company, PT Bahari Makmur Sejahtera(BMS), first detected the contamination in a batch shipped to the United States by a local firm in August. Indonesia then carried out sweeping radiation scanning of the Modern Cikande Industrial Estate where BMS was located. Bara Hasibuan, the task force's spokesperson, told journalists that "the shrimp production facility (BMS) has undergone independent decontamination. It has been declared safe" by the Nuclear Agency. The task force didn't give out the names of 21 other production sites, but they said that Indonesia's nuclear agency will conduct decontamination procedures immediately. According to its website, the Modern Cikande Estate, located 68 km away from Jakarta, is 3,175 acres and has more than 270 companies, both local and foreign, in industries ranging from automotive components to food processing. According to the Food and Drug Administration website, Caesium-137 is a dangerous radioactive isotope. It is usually released into the environment after nuclear tests or accidents such as Chernobyl and Fukushima. Caesium-137 is not produced in Indonesia, nor are there nuclear weapons or power plants. Hasibuan stated that "the government has tightened restrictions on scrap imports." This means the Ministry of Environment won't be issuing recommendations for scrap imports. The task force also designated PT PMT, a scrap metal plant in Indonesia that produces Caesium 137-contaminated goods as an isolation facility. (Reporting and editing by David Stanway; Dewi Kurniawati)
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Gold and silver prices reach record levels; stock market boosted by rate outlook
Investors jumped on Wednesday as they seized on the prospect of lower rates and shrugged off the political drama in France, Japan, and the United States. Meanwhile, a prolonged U.S. shutdown pushed gold to $4,000 an ounce for first time. Gold prices have risen 50% in the past year due to the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the demand for safe-haven assets resulting from political and economic concerns. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven during periods of economic and political instability. The weaker dollar has also been a factor in this rally. It was driven by central banks, retail traders, and fund managers. Hedge EVERYTHING It's obvious that it benefits from the uncertainty surrounding stock valuation. It benefits from the uncertainty in the bond markets. "The weakness of the dollar also benefits gold," said Chris Iggo. Chief Investment Officer for Core Investments at AXA Investment Managers. He said that gold is a good hedge against other markets. European stocks gained 0.6% as gains in bank shares offset a decline in autos. BMW shares fell 7% after the German luxury automobile maker cut its earnings forecast for 2025. U.S. futures are up 0.2% and suggest that New York will see more gains later. Sebastien Lecornu, the caretaker prime minister in France, said that a budget agreement could be reached by the end of the year, reducing the likelihood of an early election. Sebastien Lecornu's cautious optimism helped to boost French bonds. OAT yields fell 5.3 basis points for the day, at 3.52%. However, it did not help the euro. It was headed for a third consecutive daily loss, trading at around $1.1629, a one-month low. Nina Stanojevic said that the volatility has been high because it's a new prime minister. It raises two areas for uncertainty. First, the fiscal packages that are being pushed and whether there will be another snap election in the near future. This would impact French OATs. The yen has also been pushed lower by political shifts in Japan this week. Investors are waiting for the announcement of Sanae Takaichi, who is expected to become prime minister in the near future. Last time, it was 152.40 to the dollar. Takaichi’s weekend victory has raised concerns among investors regarding the Bank of Japan’s ability to increase interest rates in the same way as expected. This has, of course, affected the yen. The yen has dropped over 3% in the past week and is on track to have its biggest weekly drop in a full year. This has sparked fears of Japanese government intervention. Hirofumi Suzuki, chief currency analyst at SMBC said that if the yen headed towards 160 in one to two weeks "FX interventions by the Japanese government will be viewed more likely". New Zealand's dollar fell by nearly 1% as the central bank cut its benchmark rate 50 basis points. The policymakers also left the door open to further easing. This suggests that they were concerned about the fragile state of the economy. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currencies against six other currencies) hit its highest level since the end August. However, sentiment was still gloomy as the shutdown entered its eight day. The shutdown has also prevented the release of several key economic reports. The Federal Reserve is still expected to reduce rates by 45 basis points between now and year's end, according to the markets. Investors dismissed concerns about excess supply in this year, and oil prices rose on Wednesday. Brent crude futures increased 1% to $66.07 per barrel. (Joice Alves, London; Ankur Banerjee, Singapore; Sam Holmes and Sharon Singleton edited the story.)
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World Bank: Nigeria's food prices are a burden but the economy is growing.
The World Bank released a report on Wednesday that said Nigeria had made progress in stabilizing the economy with recent policy reforms, but needed to do more in order to improve living conditions and address the soaring prices of food. The report of the bank highlighted improvements in economic growth, revenue mobilisation and external balances since Nigeria eliminated its fuel subsidies, devalued naira and reform taxes. It warned, however, that food inflation was high and poverty widespread. Africa's largest economy expanded by 3.9% in the first six months of 2025 compared to 3.5% during the same period in 2018. This was driven by growth in non-oil and service sectors as well as a rebound in agriculture and oil production. Foreign reserves grew to $42 billion while the current account surplus increased to 6.1% GDP. This was due in part, but not exclusively, because of stronger non-oil imports and a reduction in oil imports. Nigeria's projected fiscal deficit in 2025 is 2.6% of GDP, a level that is largely unchanged from 2024, despite lower oil prices. The public debt is projected to fall for the first time since over a decade. It will drop from 42.9% of GDP to 39.8%. Mathew Verghis is the World Bank's Country Director in Nigeria. The true measure of success is how these reforms will improve the lives of Nigerians, especially the poor and the vulnerable. Cost of a basic basket of food has risen five-fold since 2019. This is disproportionately impacting poor households who spend up to 70 percent of their incomes on food. The World Bank has recommended that urgent action be taken in three areas. These include removing trade barriers, addressing bottlenecks along the supply chain to reduce food inflation, improving fiscal transparency, aligning public expenditures with development goals and enhancing social protection by implementing regular cash transfers funded domestically and crisis-responsive safety networks. The World Bank predicts that Nigeria's economy is expected to grow by 4,2% by 2025 and by 4,4% by 2027. This growth will be driven by the services sector and supported by agriculture, non-oil industries, and supported by agricultural and other sectors. The inflation rate is expected to remain high but ease slowly. Samer Matta is the World Bank Senior Economist in Nigeria. (Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha Editing by Alexandra Hudson)
The dollar's strength and mine disruptions have led to a 16-month high in copper darts.
The copper price briefly reached a 16-month high on Wednesday, due to fears of a possible shortage from a number of mine disruptions. However, a stronger dollar slowed the rise.
Aluminum prices also reached their highest level in 16 months, as inventories decreased.
The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange rose to $10,815 a metric ton. This was the highest since May 22, last year. It then settled 0.1% higher, at $10,771, in open-outcry official trading.
LME copper is up 22% this year so far, boosted in recent weeks by the problems in major mines in Indonesia Chile and Congo.
The mine disruptions led to major revisions in forecasts made by the International Copper Study Group. On Wednesday, it reduced its projected 2025 surplus from 178,000 to 150,000 tons and predicted a deficit in 2026 of 150,000 ton.
In April, the company forecasted a surplus of 289 000 tons for this year and a surplus 209 000 tons by 2026. Nitesh Sharma, commodity strategist at WisdomTree, said that all the supply disruptions keep the market tight.
He added, "It seems that miners are not doing much in the way of exploration. Even sinking new mines has become more difficult. This kind of tightness will continue."
Seven workers were killed in a mudslide disaster at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine. The mine is the second largest in the world.
Teck Resources, a Canadian mining company, cut its forecast for copper production at its flagship Quebrada Blanca Mine in Chile on Wednesday.
Capping the upside was a firmer dollar index, making greenback-denominated assets more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
LME aluminium has gained 0.4% official activity, to $2,752 per ton. This is the highest level since May 30, 2024. LME's on-warrant inventory - that is, those not designated for removal – fell to 398.775 tons Wednesday after losing 15% in the last month.
Other metals also fell, with LME Nickel down 0.7% at $15,380. Lead dropped 0.4% to $2,000, Zinc dropped 0.7% to 3,023.50, and Tin was down 0.2% at $36,475.
The Chinese market will reopen Thursday after being closed since October 1st for the Golden Week Holiday.
Click here to see the latest news in metals (Reporting provided by Eric Onstad). Additional reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru. Leroy Leo, Mark Potter and Mark Potter edited the article.
(source: Reuters)