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Congo and M23 sign peace framework in Qatar. More steps are needed
On Saturday, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and M23 rebels signed a framework deal for a peace agreement aimed at ending the fighting in eastern Congo which has claimed thousands of lives and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes this year. Representatives from both sides signed the agreement at a Doha, Qatar ceremony. The document was one of many signed in the last few months to support efforts by the United States of America and Qatar to end the decades long conflict in Congo, which has threatened to escalate to a full-blown war in the region. Officials from the United States and Qatar described the framework as an important step towards peace, but only one of many to come. Many details still need to be worked out Massad Boulos, the top U.S. ambassador to the region said that the framework included eight protocols and that there was still work to be done on how to implement the six of them. Boulos acknowledged, too, that the implementation of the two first protocols, concerning the exchange and monitoring of prisoners, which were agreed on in the last few months, was slow. After the signing, he said to reporters: "Yes they were a bit slow in their first few weeks." "Yes, there were people who expected to see immediate results, but it is a long process." It's not like a light switch you can turn on and off. M23, the latest in a series of actions supported and backed by Rwanda, captured Goma in eastern Congo in January. It then made gains in North Kivu, South Kivu, and other provinces. Rwanda has denied for years that it helped M23 seize more territory in Congo. CONFLICT CONTINUES TO BREAKOUT IN CONGO AS TALKS GO FORWARD The violence in Congo has continued despite the diplomatic efforts of Washington and Doha. Local officials in the eastern North Kivu Province reported that at least 28 people were killed on Friday by militants affiliated with Islamic State. Qatar has hosted several rounds of direct negotiations between the Congolese government and rebels dating back to April. However, they were mainly focused on preconditions and building confidence. In July, the two sides reached an agreement on a statement of principles which left unresolved many of the key issues that are at the heart of the conflict. They also agreed to monitor a ceasefire in October. Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, Qatar's State Minister for Foreign Affairs, said that the agreement reached on Saturday put the parties back on the road to peace. He said that "peace cannot be enforced through force but can only be built by mutual respect, confidence and sincere commitment."
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Australian Energy Minister pushes for COP31 to be hosted at Brazil Climate Summit
Chris Bowen, Australia's energy minister, said he will travel to Brazil on Saturday for the COP30 summit to press Australia to host the summit next year. This is despite a dispute with Turkey over hosting rights. Since then, both Australia and Turkey have refused to compromise on the issue. This month, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wrote to Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan in an effort to resolve the longstanding tussle. Bowen told reporters at Sydney Airport that a decision would be taken at COP30. He also asserted "Australia has the overwhelming backing of the world" to host the conference next year. Bowen, in a press release, said that he would be promoting Australia's clean energy sector at the summit to be held in the Amazonian city of Belem. Bowen stated that Australia was keen to host the summit next year with Pacific Island nations and demonstrate how they can work together to combat the "existential danger" of climate changes. He added, "Our nation faces a number of challenges when it comes climate change. But every effort we make will help us avert the worst effects." The Pacific Islands Forum is a regional diplomatic bloc made up of 18 countries that supports Australia's bid. The rising seas are a threat to several Pacific island nations. Australia is aiming to be a "superpower of renewable energy" and has shifted away from coal, gas and nuclear power. It is now seeking investment for critical minerals, green-steel and transition technologies, such as batteries. The Turkish government wants a COP – or Conference of the Parties – that focuses more on financing climate initiatives in developing countries, while showcasing the progress Turkey has made towards its 2053 target of net-zero emission. Over the years, the annual COP has evolved from a diplomatic gathering into a vast trade show where the host countries can showcase their economic prospects.
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Director Raizen says that the company has locked in prices for half its production for 2026/27.
Phillipe Casale, director of investor relations at Raizen and one of the top sugar producers in the world, said on Friday that the company has already locked in prices for half the volume of sugar it expects to make in the 2026/27 harvest. Casale, a Brazilian company, said that the Brazilian firm had so far achieved prices of 114 cents real ($0.2110) per kilogram. He added that the price of sugar for the crop year 2025/26 is set at 111 cents real per pound. According to Raizen, weather problems will cause his sugarcane crushing to be lower than the 72-75 million tons he had forecasted for 2025/26. * The director of the company said that the company expects to see potential productivity gains in next crop year. This is due to replanting areas damaged by wildfires and better weather conditions. * The executives also stated that the firm's divestment program is not yet complete, and further developments will be expected to reduce the net debt. * Raizen reported a net loss in the second quarter for the 2025/26 harvest of 2.3 billion reals ($425.6 millions). ($1 = 5.4039 Reais) (Reporting and Writing by Roberto Samora, Editing and Proofreading by Natalia Siniawski).
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Australian Energy Minister pushes for COP31 to be hosted at Brazil Climate Summit
Chris Bowen, Australia's energy minister, said he will travel to Brazil on Saturday for the COP30 summit to press Australia to host the summit next year. This is despite a dispute with Turkey over hosting rights. Both Australia and Turkey bid in 2022 for the United Nations Climate Conference and have refused to give up their positions ever since. This month, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wrote to Turkish president Tayyip Erdoan in an effort to resolve the longstanding dispute. Bowen stated in a press release that he will advocate strongly for Australia at the summit to be held in the Amazonian city of Belem and would highlight the clean energy industry. Bowen stated that Australia wished to host the summit of Pacific Island Nations next year and demonstrate how they can fight together against the "existential danger" of climate changes. He added, "Our nation faces a number of challenges when it comes climate change. But every effort we make will help us avert the worst effects." The Pacific Islands Forum is a regional diplomatic bloc made up of 18 countries that supports Australia's bid. The rising seas are a threat to several Pacific island nations. Australia is aiming to be a "superpower of renewable energy" and has shifted away from coal, gas and nuclear power. It is now seeking investment for critical minerals, green-steel and transition technologies, such as batteries. The Turkish government wants a COP – or Conference of the Parties – that focuses more on financing climate initiatives in developing countries, while showcasing the progress Turkey has made towards its 2053 target of net-zero emission. Over the years, the annual COP has evolved from diplomatic gatherings to vast trade shows, where host countries are able to promote their economic prospects.
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S&P Upgrades South Africa For First Time In Nearly 20 Years As Reforms Gain Ground
S&P Global upgraded South Africa's long-term foreign currency sovereign rating from "BB-" to "BB", citing improved growth prospects, an improved fiscal outlook, and reduced contingent liability following better performance by state-owned power utility Eskom. The National Treasury worked to stop the rising debt and restore credibility fiscally to put the nation back on a path of growth. Recent mid-term budget reviews showed that debt to GDP stabilized at 77.9% in this financial year, and that the budget deficit would shrink to 4.7% in 2025/26 compared to 4.8% in the may budget. As the reform agenda of the country gains momentum, state-owned entities engaged in power and freight logistics have also improved. S&P stated in a press release that it expects South Africa’s GDP to grow at a rate of 1.1% by 2025, after a subdued growth of 0.5% in 2024. It also expects the growth to be 1.5% on average through 2026-2028 due to electricity and other sectors supporting growth. Fiscal revenue exceeded budget targets in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. The agency expects to see successive years with primary surpluses, as well as continued fiscal consolidation until 2028. South Africa's foreign currency rating is now two notchs below investment grade. In 2017, the African economy with the highest industrialisation was downgraded for the first time to junk status following the firing by the then president Jacob Zuma of the well-respected Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and the subsequent policy instability. S&P has rated the outlook for the country as "positive".
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S&P upgrades Nigeria's outlook as reforms begin to take root
S&P Global Ratings changed its outlook for Nigeria from "stable" to "positive" on Friday. They backed the ongoing reforms in the economy and affirmed that the country was rated "B-/B". S&P stated in a press release that "the monetary, fiscal, and economic reforms being implemented" by the Nigerian authorities would yield positive results over the medium-term. Moody's upgraded Nigeria's credit rating in May by one notch, from "Caa1" to "B3", citing significant improvements in the external and fiscal position of the country. Fitch, on its part, maintained a "B" rating with a "stable outlook" last month. Bola Tinubu, Nigeria's President, launched the boldest reforms since decades in 2023. He scrapped the expensive petrol subsidy, and removed currency trading restrictions, to boost growth and attract foreign investments. Analysts say that if these reforms are sustained, they could support economic growth on a long-term basis, although implementation hurdles as well as volatility in the global oil prices still pose risks. Nigeria has turned towards debt markets to bridge its fiscal gap. Last week, Nigeria raised $2.35bn through an Eurobond issue to help finance the budget deficit for 2025, while still borrowing domestically. (Reporting and editing by AnushkaChourasia, ChijiokeOhuocha.
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Sources say that Barrick Mining is considering splitting into two separate entities.
Barrick is considering splitting into Africa and North America focused entities Discussion on the sale of African assets, including Reko Diq Mine Barrick's performance in the record gold rally is undervalued by investors. By Divya Rajagopal Four sources familiar with Barrick Mining's thinking said that the board has discussed the possibility of splitting Barrick Mining into two separate companies, one focusing on North America, and the other focusing on Africa and Asia. Sources say that a split could include the sale of Barrick Africa's assets, as well as the Reko diq mine in Pakistan once financing is secured. Sources said that Barrick wants to settle a dispute in Mali with the African nation’s military administration prior to selling the asset. Barrick's spokesperson did not respond immediately to comments. Interim CEO Mark Hill responded on Monday to a question about a possible division by saying that the company doesn't comment on speculation. Sources said that talks are still ongoing and nothing is finalized. If the plans are implemented, they would reverse Barrick's merger in 2019 with Randgold and eliminate assets acquired by former CEO Mark Bristow. One source said that the company's focus in North America would help to ensure Barrick is not undervalued if a takeover bid were made. This includes Fourmile, an undeveloped major gold mine in Nevada. The Fourmile mine is not expected to begin production until 2029. Hill announced earlier this week the company's shift to North America. Analysts at Jefferies, among others, upgraded its ratings on its shares. Following the report, Barrick's shares rose on the Toronto Stock Exchange. They closed up 3%. Investors say Barrick's stock is undervalued, and they have asked the company how it can take advantage of gold prices that are experiencing a historic rise. Barrick's shares are up 130% in this year but its returns over the past five years have been less than those of its peers. Agnico Eagle, for example, has gained 142%. Investors proposed to divide the company into two divisions, with one with more stable assets, such as Nevada, Fourmile and Reko Diq. The other would have riskier assets, like those in Africa, Papua New Guinea and Reko Diq. Investors say that Barrick, as one of few gold mining companies to have assets on multiple continents and in volatile political regions, is at risk. Barrick's most profitable mine in Mali was taken over by another company earlier this year. This led to a $1 Billion write-off. Three metric tons (three metric tons) of gold were seized and a temporary administrator was appointed to run the mine after a dispute over the new mining tax code in the country. The Malian government has still imprisoned four Barrick employees. One Barrick investor said, "There was a perception that Nevada had a great deal of value." The investor, who asked not to be named because they weren't authorized to speak with the media, added that if the Nevada mine was a publicly-listed company, it would be among the largest gold mining companies in the world. Investor said that the company had resisted splitting up in the past, because its other mines would be worthless without Nevada. Barrick operates the Nevada gold mine with Newmont Corp. The company also has mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Papua New Guinea. It also operates gold mines in Tanzania, Dominican Republic and Tanzania. (Divyarajagopal reported from Toronto; Veronica Brown, Lisa Shumaker, and Edmund Klamann edited the story)
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Gold falls 3% after Fed remarks that are hawkish spark a market sell-off
Gold prices fell 3% on the Friday, as a result of a wider market sell-off sparked off by hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials. This dimmed hopes for an interest rate reduction in December. As of 02:33 pm, spot gold dropped 1.9%, to $4,092.72 an ounce. ET (1933 GMT) after falling more than 3% earlier in session. But bullion has gained 2.3% this week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 2.4% lower at $4,094.20. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that the idea that there will be a lower likelihood of a Fed cut in December has taken some of the wind from the silver and gold markets. The equity markets fell after the global sell-off caused by Fed hawkish signals. The Fed and traders are now in the dark ahead of the next policy meeting due to the longest U.S. shutdown. Investors were hoping that fresh data would indicate a slowing of the economy, giving the Fed the room to reduce rates in December. This would boost the appeal for non-yielding metals like gold. These expectations dwindled as more Fed policymakers took a cautious approach to additional monetary ease. The FedWatch tool of CME Group showed that market expectations for a rate cut of 25 basis points next month dropped to almost 46% from 50% earlier in the week. Gold that does not yield tends to do well in periods of economic instability and low interest rates. When margin calls or liquidations occur, traders will close all positions to release margin. In this environment of risk-off, even gold prices are down. This is partly explained by Fawad Rasaqzada's note, a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. The demand for physical gold in major Asian markets has been subdued over the past week. Silver spot fell 2.8%, to $50.84 an ounce, but is still on course for a 5.2% weekly gain. Palladium fell 2.8%, to $1,387.25, while platinum dropped 2.1%, to $1,547.30. Both metals have been on the rise for this week. (Reporting from Noel John in Bengalur; Additional reporting by Sarah Qureshi, Editing by Leroy Leo & Diane Craft).
Fears of sanctions stymie Russian panda bond sales in China
Sources said that Russian companies' plans for low-cost financing through China's massive bond market are not working because Chinese investors and banks avoid them due to concerns over Western sanctions.
The conundrum shows how difficult it is for Russian companies to raise capital in a country which has been an ally since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine over three years ago.
Beijing, which is seeking a deal with Washington while also forging a partnership with Russia - a relationship that is said to have no limits - is being put to the test.
Last month, sources at top Russian companies including the state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom, and the giant gas concern Gazprom reported that they were exploring the sale of "panda bonds" denominated in yuan.
The announcement came shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to China in early September. Since the Ukraine invasion, Russian companies are no longer able to access the capital markets of the West.
Chinese investors and bankers, however, dismissed the prospect of a panda bond issue by Russian companies in the near future. A person with knowledge of the situation said that banks and regulators were concerned about secondary sanctions.
The person said, "Preparation is always underway, but it's just impossible to push the project ahead," citing the lack of progress in the panda bonds issuance by Rosatom and Russian aluminum producer Rusal over the last year.
Rusal declined comment. Rosatom declined to comment, despite the fact that its top management was sanctioned by the U.S.
Gazprom did not reply to a comment request. The company cannot raise finance in the U.S., Europe, or Canada, but it has not been subjected to U.S. blockade sanctions, known as SDN List.
The official of a Chinese securities exchange said that he did not know of any concrete plans for issuance by Russian companies. Several Chinese bond investors also said they were wary about buying such debt because of the geopolitical risk.
The five sources that were interviewed for this article declined to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the subject.
First source: China's state owned brokerages, such as Galaxy Securities, have stopped doing deals with Russia after 2022. The "Big Four" banks of the state are also unwilling to do such deals due to geopolitical issues.
Galaxy has not responded to a request for comment sent via email.
Zhan Kai of Yuanda China Law Offices in Shanghai said that there was no legal barrier to Russian companies issuing panda bond as long as they were not listed on the U.S. sanction list.
Zhan, a Chinese company advisor who helps Chinese firms avoid sanctions and manage risks, said: "It is clear that local traders and bankers are concerned about acting as underwriters and buyers."
He said that the market will ultimately determine whether or not a Russian bond is sold. "I don't anticipate a lot appetite in China" to buy Russian bonds, he added.
Requests for comments were not responded to by the China Securities Regulatory Commission or the People's Bank of China.
YUAN BORROWINGS ARE CHEAPER
S&P Global reported that 35 offshore companies raised 116 billion Yuan ($16.3 billion), after raising 194.8 billion yuan last year. This was the highest volume since the data began to be available in 2015.
Since the conflict in Ukraine 2022, no Russian companies have issued debt on China's panda bond markets of 342 billion yuan. Rusal was the only Russian company to sell panda bond in China before Russia's troops invaded Ukraine in 2016.
The Chinese rating agency CSCI Pengyuan assigned to Gazprom a "triple A" rating in early September, indicating a very low default risk and paving its way for its yuan bonds issuance.
According to a Moscow fund manager who declined his name, the Russian rouble's borrowing rates are high. They range from 15%-16% per year. So issuing Yuan bonds would be a good way to obtain cheap capital.
Comparatively, in July a Chinese BMW unit sold a panda-bond with a coupon of 1.73%.
According to a Russian official, there's nothing stopping Russian companies issuing panda bonds as long as demand exists.
"Large corporations work with their own placements." "We only assist them with infrastructure and solutions," said the official. He added that the question is now who will purchase them in China where banks fear secondary sanctions.
A manager at a Chinese state owned company, who declined to give his name, revealed that some Russian companies are desperate to find low-cost financing and are willing to restructure their loans through a commodities deal.
Kirill Lysenko of the Russian rating agency Expert RA said that issuing panda bond by Russian companies could take many years.
Geopolitical risks exist even within the framework of a "friendly nation". He said that if sanctions were to impact China's financial infrastructure, debt servicing would become more complicated. $1 = 7.1979 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting from Shanghai and Hong Kong Newsrooms, Anastasia Lyrchikova in Moscow, Oksana Kobieva in Singapore and Rae Wee at Rae Wee; Editing done by Sumeet Chatterjee & Muralikumar Aantharaman).
(source: Reuters)