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Andy Home: China is feeling the ripple effects of US copper tariffs

China's net copper imports fell to an all-time low in July, as the world's biggest buyer competed with the United States for the metal.

China's warehouse stocks are now included in the scramble to export copper to the U.S. before threatened tariffs.

In the first seven month of 2025, China "exported 121,000 metric tonnes of copper to the U.S." The shipments began after President Donald Trump announced in February a national-security investigation into U.S. dependence on copper imports.

Since U.S. Customs only counted 15 tons of Chinese refined copper in the first half 2025, we can conclude that China's so-called "exports", were re-exports from non-Chinese metals.

China has been able to increase its own imports due to the depletion of bonded inventories, but it has also had to diversify the supply base in order to offset the U.S. demand for refined copper.

Record Flows

China's exports of refined copper in the period January-July totaled 426,000 tonnes, which is higher than any other calendar year except for last year's 458,000 tonnage.

A short squeeze in the CME contract caused the mid-year spike in exports in 2024. The U.S. premium was increased over the London Metal Exchange price (LME), which was at the time an unprecedented $1100 per ton.

Chinese smelters took advantage of the global price disparity by shipping metals to LME storage warehouses in Taiwan, South Korea and Taiwan.

In February 2024, the LME held only 400 tons of Chinese copper. By August, they had risen to 164,000 tonnes.

In retrospect, it was a practice run for the even bigger tariff disparity of this year.

The CME premium over the LME reached almost $3,000 by July, before falling to less than $1,000 in August. This was when the U.S. Administration confirmed tariffs on products made of copper but delayed a decision about refined copper to next year.

Chinese smelters once again sent metal to the LME where the registered stocks of Chinese Copper jumped from 25,000 to 98,000 tonnes over the month of July.

In addition to the turnaround in Chinese bonded storage, there has been an increase in outright exports of metals to Thailand and Vietnam. The fact that neither country has LME warehouses suggests China is filling the supply-chain gap created by the rush to obtain the right type of copper for U.S. deliveries.

CHILEAN DIVERSION

CME's deliverable brand list is largely restricted to South American and domestic brands, Chilean brands in particular.

U.S. copper imports in the first six months of this year exceeded 500,000 tonnes, compared to 650,000 tons by calendar 2024.

The physical supply chain and LME warehouses were stripped of a large amount of the extra metal.

Since the tariff trade began, China's copper imports have plummeted.

For the first time in 2006, metal imports from Chile fell below 20,000 tonnes in June and July. Year-to-date, the 203,000-ton total is almost half of what it was in 2024.

Chinese buyers are now looking to Russia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia as compensation for the loss of Chilean Copper.

In the past two years, the Congo has become China's largest supplier of refined copper. This position was cemented in this year by the cumulative imports of nearly 820,000 tons during the period of January to July.

The pace of imports from Russia to China has increased significantly in the past year.

The monthly imports of Russian Copper now regularly exceed those of Chile. Cumulative arrivals from January to July of 269,000 tonnes were up 123% compared to last year.

China's imports from Zambia of metal has also doubled, to 95,000 tonnes as buyers seek alternative non-Chilean materials.

Import Appetites

China's massive exports and reexports hide the country's continuing need for refined copper.

Imports reached 2.2 million tonnes in the first seven month of 2025. This closely matched last year's level.

In fact, China's appetite for imports has grown over the past couple of months as a result of the combination of reduced port stocks and direct sales from smelters to both the LME (London Metal Exchange) and other Asian consumers.

A shortage of copper scrap is also affecting the country, which will increase demand for refined metal. Imports of scrap decreased by 1% between January and July compared to the previous year.

China has included copper scrap as part of its reciprocal tariffs against the U.S., and the U.S. trade has been drastically reduced this year.

China's imports of U.S. scrap from the United States have fallen by 49% in one year. The total of 930 tonnes for July was the lowest monthly figure since over 20 years.

Chinese buyers diversify their purchases by reducing imports of refined copper from Europe. This may only be a temporary solution, as the European Union is currently considering export restrictions for recyclable metal.

After the U.S. tariffs were resisted, the geopolitical disruption of the refined copper market was likely to be nearing its end. However, the disruption in global scrap flows could only have just begun.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)