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Pakistan claims Indian actions made floods worse
By Saeed Bukhari and Mubasher Shah ISLAMABAD - The flooding in Pakistan caused by water flowing down from India has been made worse because New Delhi suspended a river sharing treaty, and the gates of an Indian barrage collapsed, Pakistani officials stated on Friday. This week, torrential monsoon rainfall ravaged India and Pakistan. Further heavy rains are forecast this weekend. Flood waters in eastern Pakistan threatened to submerge Jhang and the second largest city in Pakistan on Friday. This was the worst flooding for almost 40 years. Indus Waters treaty regulates the flow of rivers from India into Pakistan for over six decades. India suspended the agreement this year after 26 militants were killed by New Delhi, who claimed that Islamabad was behind them. Pakistan, however, denies it. Ahsan Iqbal is the Pakistani Planning Minister. He said that India used to share data about water flows with Pakistan under a treaty, but it was not shared quickly or in enough detail. Iqbal said, "We could've managed better with better information." If the Indus water treaty had been in place, we could've mitigated the effect. Video broadcast on Thursday by Indian media showed that the middle section of Madhopur Barrage, which spans Ravi River, India, had been washed out by surging waters. Pakistani officials claimed that the damage caused by this surge flooded parts of Lahore, Pakistan on Friday. A source in the Indian government denied that there was a deliberate attempt to flood Pakistan. However, they confirmed that two gates from the Madhopur Barrage had broken. The source declined to identify themselves, but cited government policy. Indian authorities are trying to stop the flow of the Ravi River despite damage to the barrage. Source: "India does everything it can to help and is passing on all information." The flood is caused by the constant rain. The Indian foreign and water resource ministries have not responded to requests for comments on record. Pakistani officials claim that India has sent Islamabad four flood alerts since Sunday. This includes a Friday warning. New Delhi has acknowledged that it is passing warnings to Islamabad on humanitarian grounds. However, no details have been provided. India stopped sharing information with other water officials when it put the 1960 agreement on hold. This week, India's embassy sent warnings through Islamabad. Iqbal said climate change made it harder to predict the annual monsoon, which is why sharing data was more important. His constituency, Narowal near the Indian border had been badly flooded. Iqbal said, "Climate Change is not a bilateral problem." It is a matter of humanity. Pakistani authorities blew up a part of the Chenab River's riverbank on Friday to divert some water to surrounding land as the water threatened to flood nearby Jhang. This week, Pakistan evacuated over 1 million people in the east to keep them out of the way of three rivers flowing from India. According to the National Disaster Management Authority, 820 Pakistanis have died during this monsoon. Half of Pakistan's 240 million people live in the east, which is also the breadbasket of the nation. The deluge has caused widespread crop damage. Reporting by Saeed Bukhari, Mubasher in Lahore, and Krishna N. Das at New Delhi. Writing by Saeed. Editing by Peter Graff.
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Gold set to have its best month since four years as inflation data boosts rate-cut bets
Gold prices were stable on Friday, and poised to achieve their best monthly performance in April as U.S. inflation figures reinforced expectations that Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next week. As of 9:19 AM ET (1348 GMT), spot gold was up by 0.1% to $3,419.59 an ounce. Bullion is up 3.9% so far in August. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.1% to $3479.10. The dollar was up, but it was expected to drop by 1.9% per month. Gold is less expensive to overseas buyers when the dollar falls. Tariffs on imported goods increased the prices of certain goods, causing inflation to rise. The U.S. The U.S. David Meger is director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said: "We expect a Fed rate reduction, or possibly two, this year. This will be generally supportive of commodity prices, including gold, silver, across the board." The traders increased their bets that the U.S. Central Bank will cut rates by 25 basis points at its September policy meeting. This is now 89% more likely than it was before the data. Gold that does not yield is usually a good investment in an environment with low interest rates. A federal judge will decide on Friday whether or not to temporarily block President Donald Trump from firing Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, while she continues to pursue a lawsuit in which she claims that Trump does not have a valid reason for removing her. Gold is benefiting (from this uncertainty) around Fed independence, as shown by the inflows of gold ETFs in the last two day. Commerzbank stated in a report that the potential upside for gold is limited above $3,400. Spot silver dropped 0.2% per ounce to $38.98 and platinum by 0.6% to 1,350.98. Both metals are on course for gains in the month. Palladium fell 0.7% to $1,095, pointing towards a monthly loss. (Reporting from Anmol Choubey, Bengaluru. Editing by Leroy Leo.)
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Ambani calls on Indian business to unite against geopolitical threats
Mukesh Ambani is the chairman of Reliance Industries. It is India's largest company. He said that Indian companies need to collaborate to protect the South Asian country from geopolitical and external shocks. Why it's Important Reliance operates the largest refining facility in the world, located in Gujarat, the western state, and is India's leading buyer of Russian oil. The United States doubled the tariffs it imposes on Indian products to 50% as a punishment for purchasing Russian oil. This is among the highest rates Washington has ever imposed and on par with Brazilian products. Economists warn that this could have a devastating impact on sectors like textiles, leather and chemicals. By the Numbers Reliance has significant exposure to U.S. oil companies. It has signed a deal with Rosneft for 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day, the biggest oil deal between India & Russia. CONTEXT Ambani stated that the magnitude of the problem is so great that all Indian companies must come together in a grand alliance, based on the principles of mutual learning, cooperation and mutual support. In a speech to the annual general meeting of his company, billionaire Ambani stated that India must be self-sufficient in critical industries, key technologies and other vital sectors in the global economy. Ambani made his comments after Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, earlier this month called for Indians to become self-sufficient and urged industries to produce everything from jet engines and fertiliser to electric vehicle battery. Reporting by Nidhi verma and Sethuraman NR; Editing by Mayank bhardwaj and Kirovan
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Ambani's Reliance plans on making Jio public in 2026, says chairman
Reliance Industries, led by Mukesh Ambani, plans to list its Jio Platforms digital and telecoms arm, which is owned by Reliance Industries, in mid-2026. This will be one of India's biggest listings. Reliance announced at its annual general meeting held on Friday that it would create an artificial intelligence unit, with Alphabet’s Google and Meta serving as strategic partners. Mukesh Ambani, the billionaire chairman of the group, first announced plans to list Jio in five years. He told shareholders on Friday at the AGM of Jio that it is preparing for an IPO in 2019. Exclusively, in July, it was reported that Jio decided to cancel its planned IPO for 2025. Analysts valued it at more than $100 billion. Saurabh Parikh said that Jio's value is not fully reflected in Reliance’s wider petrochemicals portfolio and retail business. A separate listing could help unlock a higher value for Jio’s telecom and digital division. Jio Platforms is the home of India's largest mobile operator, Reliance Jio Infocomm. It has more than 500 million customers. It is backed by global investors such as Meta, Google, and KKR, and has played a central role in Ambani’s drive to diversify Reliance Beyond Oil and Chemicals into Consumer, Retail, and Technology, with AI being a key pillar to its growth strategy. Reliance and Meta announced on Friday a new AI venture, with an initial investment in the region of $100 million. Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, told the AGM that the new unit would deliver Meta's AI open-source models to Indian companies. Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google, also announced at the AGM that his company will partner with Reliance in order to implement AI throughout its energy, retail and telecom businesses. Reliance will be given a Jamnagar cloud region. Reliance has also set five priorities for Jio’s next phase of development, including a push for "AI Everywhere for Everyone", and the expansion of operations abroad. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janowski, Jan Harvey and Chandini Tandon in Bengaluru)
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As supply glut concerns mount, oil faces a steep uphill battle
A poll on Friday showed that oil prices will not rise much from their current levels in the coming year, as rising production from top producers increases the risk of an excess and U.S. Tariff threats limit demand growth. Brent crude is forecast to average $67.65 a barrel by 2025 according to a survey conducted in August of 31 economists. This is a little less than the $67.84 estimate made in July. The global benchmark has been around $70 per barrel so far this year. U.S. crude oil is expected to be $64.65, up from last month's estimate of $64.61. Moutaz Alaghlibi is a senior energy economist with ABN AMRO. He said: "With the recent OPEC+ production increases and the anticipated lackluster global demand in 2025, there's a prospect for an even greater market surplus." He said that the outlook is clouded with "deep uncertainty" about any additional U.S. Tariffs, particularly those related to geopolitical outcomes like an Iranian nuclear agreement or Russia agreeing on a ceasefire. OPEC+ and its allies agreed earlier this month to increase oil production for September by 547,000 barrels a day. "OPEC+ has probably not yet reached the end of its output increases." Frank Schallenberger is the head of commodity analysis at LBBW. He said that, for now, market share appears to be more significant than higher oil prices. This will result in a large supply surplus on the oil markets by 2025 and 2026, which will keep prices low. Washington's efforts to broker peace with Moscow in Ukraine have been unsuccessful so far. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has increased tariffs against India to pressure New Delhi into stopping its purchase of Russian oil. The majority of respondents to the poll believe that Trump's threats against Russian oil buyers will have a limited impact on the market, since they believe OPEC+ or alternative suppliers can mitigate any supply gaps. Analysts said that the geopolitical premium will likely support oil prices, as an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine seems unlikely. The poll found that the International Energy Agency had predicted a 680,000 bpd increase in global oil demand by 2025. OPEC has raised its forecast of global oil demand for next year, but lowered its estimate for the growth in supply coming from the U.S. "The U.S. is interesting as President Trump wants to push for increased production. However, OPEC+'s projections may be correct." "The reason behind this is the price," said Zain Vwda at MarketPulse.
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Baosteel believes that China's steel imports will remain above 100 million tonnes in 2025
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co, China's largest listed steelmaker, said that it expects China's total exports of steel to remain above 100 million metric tonnes in 2025. It is also monitoring possible curbs on the national steel production. Baosteel is a subsidiary company of China Baowu Steel Group. This group, owned by the Chinese government, is the largest steel producer in the world. Baosteel chairman Jixin Zou stated that steel exports would likely drop in the fourth quarter, from their current high levels, due to potential higher export prices, as well as new tax regulations and customs barriers. This was revealed at the company’s results presentation for the first half on Friday. China's exports of steel in the first 7 months rose 11.4%, reaching a new record high despite the introduction of trade barriers. Baosteel exports 4.83 million tonnes of steel during the same period compared to a total 6.07 million in 2024. Baojun Liu, general manager of Baosteel, said, "Our monthly exports continue to increase, and we are already capable of exporting 10,000,000 tons of steel per year." Liu stated that the company aims to export 15 and 20 millions tons of steel by 2026 and 2028, respectively. Baosteel also said that it would monitor closely measures to reduce steel production and the development in China of "anti-involution policies" to combat perceived overcapacity. China's top leaders pledged to end a deflationary war in July, causing expectations for a nationwide reform of supply in sectors with overcapacity, such as coal and steel. This led to higher prices. China is reportedly planning to reduce steel production between 2025-2026 in order to combat overcapacity, which has impacted prices and sparked a global protectionist backlash. Baosteel announced on Wednesday that its first-half profit increased by 7.4% despite a soft domestic market and lower steel prices. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez, Jan Harvey and Amy Lv)
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Palm oil gains three weeks on rival oils
The price of Malaysian palm oils futures ended a three-week rally Friday due to the weakness of rival edible oils. Traders also closed their positions before a long weekend. At the close, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Derivatives Exchange for November delivery fell 72 ringgit (1.62%) to 4,377 Ringgit ($1,040.90). The contract dropped 3.36% in the past week. A Kuala Lumpur based trader reported that overnight weakness in rival oilseeds had spilled over into palm oil futures. Some market participants may have closed positions before the long weekend. On Monday, the Malaysian Bourse and Chicago Board of Trade are closed for a holiday. Dalian's palm oil contract, which is the most active contract, fell by 1.69%. Chicago Board of Trade soyoil prices were down by 1.05%. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oils industry, it tracks the price changes of competing edible oils. The oil prices dropped, but they were on track for a gain of about 1% per week. This was due to the uncertainty surrounding Russian supply, and the expectation that demand would be lower as the driving season in America, the largest fuel consumer in the world, is coming to an end. Palm oil is less appealing as a biodiesel feedstock due to the weaker crude oil futures. The palm ringgit's trade currency has weakened by 0.19% to the dollar. This makes the commodity cheaper for foreign buyers. ($1 = 4.2050 ringgit)
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Gunvor's Net Profit Falls 71% in First Half of 2025
Gunvor, the global commodity trader, reported a 71% drop in its first-half net profits on Friday. It cited an oil surplus, increased competition and fewer arbitrage opportunities, as well as thin margins. The Geneva-based trader (which is not listed) said that net profit after taxes totalled $120.8 for the first half of 2025 compared to $417 in the same period the previous year. Gunvor said that it had decided to take a conservative approach in order to limit the downside risk. Gunvor, along with rivals Vitol, and Trafigura has seen its profits decline since last year, as the post pandemic recovery, and commodity price shocks after Russia's invasion in Ukraine, faded. This ended a boom for commodities between 2022-2023. The start of its financial year 2025 coincided with Donald Trump's second term as U.S. president, whose foreign and trade policies have caused global markets to be in turmoil. Gunvor's profit fell despite an increase in revenues and trade volumes. The first half of 2025 saw a rise in trade volumes to 123 millions metric tons, up from 109.2 million a year ago. Natural gas showed the biggest increase year-over year, increasing 72% to reach 38 million tons. Gunvor's revenues rose 8.6%, to $73.6 billion. The increase in natural gas revenue was partially offset by a decline in oil and oil product revenue. It said that the group's equity valued was $6.6 billion.
Demand and interest rates are expected to boost copper by 3% per month.
On Friday, copper prices reached a five-week peak, and are on course to end August with an increase of 3%, due to expectations that U.S. rates will be cut, and on increased demand for September.
The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange increased 0.6% in open-outcry official trading to $9.875 per metric ton after reaching its highest level since July 25, $9.917.
"Partly, it's because the dollar has weakened a little." There have also been some positive data in recent months, including the upward revision to U.S. GDP growth for the second quarter," said Dan Smith of Commodity Market Analytics.
We are also headed for September which is a month that tends to have a higher demand than summer.
Dollar-priced precious metals became more appealing to buyers who used other currencies in August as the U.S. dollar was expected to fall by 2% on a monthly basis.
The yuan is expected to register its largest monthly gain against the US dollar since May in China, which is the world's top consumer of metals.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored copper inventories in warehouses this week and they fell by 2.4% while the Yangshan premium on copper also dropped.
Other LME metals saw a 0.4% increase in aluminium to $2.615 per ton, a 1.2% rise in zinc to $2.814, 0.1 % growth for lead to $1.986, and 0.7 % for nickel to $15,375.
Tin prices rose 1.5% to $35,325 after reaching their highest level in nearly five months. Stocks on the LME
(source: Reuters)