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Saudi June crude exports rise from record low May data
Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose from a record low of just 3.434 million barrels per day to 3.993 million barrels per days in June. The crude oil production of the country increased from 6.560 to 7.122 millions bpd between May and June. JODI has data on Saudi crude exports and outputs dating back to 2002. Riyadh, and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries provide monthly export data for publication on the JODI website. The U.S. and Iran signed a MoU in June that allowed'more vessels to cross the Strait of Hormuz,' according to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The data revealed that the crude throughput of the Saudi refinery rose by 0.111 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.497 millions bpd from 2.386million bpd during the previous month. Direct crude-burning fell by 64,000 bpd, to 583,000?bpd. Data showed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was slowed on Wednesday. Most shipowners avoided this 'key waterway' because of the lack of clarity on its reopening from a previous blockade during Iran War. Saudi Aramco has re-started oil loading inside the key waterway and more?tankers are waiting to load. The state energy giant is offering spot heavy crude cargoes. The company had halted its sales for a period of?weeks after attacks on 'its tanker fleet? in the Strait of Hormuz last month during an escalation of U.S. - Iran conflict. (Reporting from Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Joyjeet Das.)
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Gulf Aluminium output drops in July, impacting global production
The 'Iran War' caused a drop in Middle East primary aluminium production in July, which weighed on global production. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI), a non-profit organization, reported that Gulf production fell by 44% in July to 293,000 tonnes, down from 523,000 tons the previous year. In late March, two smelters located in the Gulf region, which together account for around 9% of primary aluminium production capacity in the world, were attacked by Iran as part of the Middle East conflict. The daily production of the region in July was down more than 10% compared to a month before, at 9,800 tons. This is well below its pre-war baseline level of 17,800 tonnes. IAI data show that the 'weaker Gulf production was offset by stronger output in China, which was estimated to be 3.866 million tonnes in July, up 2.7% from 3.764 millions a year earlier. Emirates Global Aluminium said this month that production was returning to its Al Taweelah Smelter in Abu Dhabi faster than expected after an emergency shutdown in March. However, it could still take up to one year to reach previous levels. (Reporting and editing by Vijay Kishore; Reporting by Eric Onstad)
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The Trump administration will support US mineral projects with grants of $500 million
According to a document obtained by the. The funding comes just weeks after President Donald Trump announced a goal of making the U.S. a "minerals powerhouse" in the world and reducing reliance on the market leader China. The administration has used grants, loans, and government investments to encourage new mining and processing projects. It also aims to create a more secure supply chain of minerals that are considered vital to the economy and to national security. The war with Iran has heightened the urgency of the project, highlighting the stress that a major conflict could put on U.S. weapon inventories and industrial base needed to replenish them. Energy Department received hundreds applications from its Battery Materials Processing Program and Battery Manufacturing program for the third round of funding. Audrey Robertson said that the chosen applicants "were the most promising and provided the greatest return to Americans in the areas where the battery ecosystem is most needed." Lilac Solutions has been awarded $100 million to build a lithium extraction facility at Utah's Great Salt Lake. BMW-backed company Lilac Solutions expects the facility to be open by 2028, and will produce 5,000 tons of lithium per year. Robertson stated that the Energy Department scientists "firmly" believe that Lilac will be an important resource for lithium carbonate in the United States. Energy Department announced previously funding for projects by ioneer Standard Lithium, and Lithium Americas. Jervois will receive $100 million for the construction of the only refinery in the United States to process cobalt, a metal used to manufacture batteries, electronics, and weapons. Last year, the company was privatized as part of an 'advanced bankruptcy' due to low market prices. Robertson stated that cobalt was still in high demand in many sectors, and the Energy Department funding is intended to boost domestic supplies. Nth Cycle is a Trafigura-backed battery recycler that will receive $100 million to build a facility for processing battery metal scrap, also known as "black mass". The Trump administration blocked exports of black masses, which contain minerals that can easily be recycled. Robertson stated that the funding is not linked to the export ban, but added "the United States will build the ecosystem necessary to recycle and process black mass and batteries here at home." The Energy Department also gives $50 million to Princeton NuEnergy which reprocesses battery cathodes; Arcanum Ventures which produces chemicals for batteries electrolytes; Coreshell Technologies which is developing anodes that are made of silicon rather than graphite which has been the industry standard. (Reporting and editing by Nia William; Ernest Scheyder, Jarrett Renshaw)
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Gold falls after a two-month high due to oil and hawkish Fed outlook
Gold prices fell on Thursday, after rising more than 4% the previous session. A surprise U.S. Treasury "liquidity" move pushed down bond yields as well as the dollar. Meanwhile, rising oil prices and hawkish Fed signaling prompted profit taking. By 1140 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.9% per ounce to $4479.12. Bullion was earlier at $4,525.79, after prices rose to a two-month high on Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures slipped?0.2% to $4,535.70. Treasury Department announced on Wednesday that it will double its liquidity-support buyback operation for longer-dated bonds and notes, helping to ease the pressure in the bond markets. The U.S. Dollar?was hovering around three-month lows. Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said that the lower prices this morning were a temporary correction and not the start of a downward trend. He said that the outlook for the next few weeks will be largely determined by the Federal Reserve's policy and the developments in the Persian Gulf. The minutes of the Fed's last meeting revealed that inflation concerns have intensified, and several policymakers are prepared to increase interest rates. The price of oil hit a three-week high on Thursday, amid fears that the U.S. and Iran war impasse would continue to disrupt Middle East supply. This comes after President Donald Trump warned against economic consequences for any nation providing Iran with "any type" of lifeline. The total U.S. outstanding debt surpassed $40 trillion for the?first time, causing new warnings about a fiscal emergency. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 67% chance of a Fed Hold in September. Morgan Stanley believes gold will exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2027. It could even be sooner as the Fed is expected to remain?on hold. However, it said that U.S. inflation figures may drive volatility, while low COMEX'short positions' limit further gains from?short covering. Gold is often regarded as an inflation hedge. However, increasing interest rates tend to make the metal less appealing. Silver spot fell by 0.4%, to $66.63 an ounce. Platinum dropped by 0.5%, to $1815.57, and palladium was down 0.1%, to $1331.00.
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India's infrastructure production rose 5.4% year-on-year in July
According to the second release of a revised series, India's infrastructure production increased?5.4% on an annual basis in July. However, it slowed a little from the previous months, as the output of iron ore and electricity moderated. The new series, released by the government last month, replaces 2011-12 as the base-year and expands core sectors to nine from eight industries, including iron ore. According to data from the government, infrastructure output increased by a revised 6 percent in June compared with a year ago. KEY NUMBERS * Cement production increased 13.1% from a revised increase of 9.9% in June. * Steel production grew?2.9% in July, compared with a revised growth of 5.6%?in June. * Electricity production?rose by 9% in July compared with a revised increase of 11.4% in June. * The coal production increased 7.6% in July compared to an increase of 1.4% in the previous month. * Iron ore production increased 29.5% from a revised increase of 44.5% during June. * Crude oil production fell by 5.3% in July compared with a drop of 4.2% in the previous month. * Fertiliser output declined by?8% in July, after a contraction of 3.3% in June. * The natural gas production fell 3.7% in July, compared with a revised decline of 4.8% in June. * The output of refinery products rose by 2.7% in July, compared to a revised 4.0%?fall one month earlier. * The cumulative infrastructure output growth for April-July has increased from 1.5% to 4.3% in comparison with the same period last year.
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Norway's Equinor signs a three-year agreement with Poland's Orlen
The Norwegian company Equinor announced on Thursday that it had signed a contract for a period of three years to supply oil from western Europe's largest producing field Johan 'Sverdrup. Equinor announced that the contract will begin in September and allow for deliveries between 5 million metric tonnes and more than nine million tons. The deal is flexible, and allows for different Norwegian grades. However, Johan Sverdrup’s medium-heavy oil?is an excellent substitute for Russian Urals which historically Lithuanian or Polish refineries were designed to process. Since Russia's war against Ukraine began in?2022, European nations have slowly stopped using Russian energy. Orlen stopped purchasing?any Russian crude oil last year, when it ceased purchases for its Czech division. Orlen's chief executive, Ireneusz Fafara, said that the agreement was a response to global instability. It also demonstrated that energy sector resilience is built by a long-term partnership with partners who provide predictable supplies and operational stability. The contract stipulates that the greater quantity would be delivered in Lithuania, Poland, and the Czech Republic. This would make Equinor Orlen’s second largest supplier, after Saudi Aramco which supplies around 40% of crude oil processed by Orlen. According to estimates, the contract covers about 20% of Sverdrup’s output. Reporting by Louise Rasmussen and Nerijus Adomiaitis; writing by Marek Strazelecki; editing by Terje Sollvik and Barbara Lewis
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Copper prices fall as inventories rise; weaker dollar provides support
The copper price?fell on Thursday, as more stocks arrived at?warehouses. However, losses were minimal due to the weaker dollar following a move by the U.S. Government?to calm down bond markets. Benchmark 'three-month' copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.4% to $13,988 per metric ton at 1025 GMT after adding 0.5% the previous session. LME copper reached a six-month high on Monday due to concerns about low inventories. However, since then the price has eased as metal is now flowing into storage facilities. The Treasury's announcement of yesterday's copper buyback helped stop the decline that we saw as inventories began to return to LME, said Ole Hansen. He is the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. The announcement is a very strong one and indicates the possibility of a weaker dollar in the future. The announcement also shows that there is a competition among investors to fund debt and also hard assets. Copper has been at forefront of this recently. The dollar index dropped to a 3-month low as the Treasury Department acted to calm down a bond-market selloff which had driven long-end yields up to their highest level since 2007. The weaker dollar means that commodities priced in U.S. dollars are cheaper for buyers of other currencies. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract edged up 0.2% to 107200 yuan (15,943.13) per ton. Data showed that LME inventories increased by another?3,950 tonnes, bringing gains for the week to 17%. On-warrant stocks of copper, meaning that metals not already designated for?warehouse removal' on the LME The prices of most items have risen by over?50% in the last week but remain less than half the levels they were three months ago. Other metals include LME aluminium, which?lost 1.1% at $3,196 per ton, and nickel, which?shrank 1.3% to $15,890. Zinc gained 1.2%, to $3.751, while lead increased 0.1%, to $1,890, and tin rose by 0.3%, to $55,705.
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Sources say that Indian Oil is close to signing a LPG import agreement with Algerian Sonatrach in 2027.
Indian Oil Corp., the top refiner in India, has signed a contract with Sonatrach of Algeria to import LPG from 2027. India is diversifying its sources of LPG (mainly used for cooking) to reduce its dependence on the Middle East. The recent blockade of energy flows in the Strait of Hormuz forced the South Asian nation, which was forced to ration LPG supplies, to rely less on Middle Eastern suppliers. IOC will lift one large?gas container containing between 45,000 and 55,000 metric tonnes of LPG (a mixture of propane?and butane) every month. IOC had a contract with Sonatrach for a period of time until a few?years ago, but then switched to purchasing?from the Middle East. A second source confirmed that the LPG prices in Algeria are lower than Saudi Aramco's Contract Price. The deal between IOC and Sonatrach, however, is to lift the cargoes free-onboard. IOC and Sonatrach have not responded to emails seeking comments. According to preliminary LSEG trade flow, India is expecting to receive 110,000 tons of LPG in August. India has 'increased their?intake?of U.S. LPG in order to offset the loss Middle Eastern supplies while encouraging customers to switch to piped gas. Sources said last month that India will buy up to a quarter (25%) of its LPG imported from the United States by 2027. Sources said that the three state-owned?retailers – Indian Oil Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp. and Bharat Oil Corp. – are expected to launch a joint bid to import LPG imported from the U.S.
US copper futures rise as tariff fears loom
U.S. Copper Futures soared by nearly 6% Monday, increasing their premium over London Prices amid growing speculation about new import tariffs after President Donald Trump’s latest aluminum trade measures.
Trump announced on Friday that he would increase the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, up from 25%.
U.S. Comex Copper Futures rose 5.7% to $4.9175 a pound. This is the highest price since April 3. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose by 1.1% at $9,597.50 a metric ton as of 0944 GMT.
The COMEX premium over the LME, a global benchmark price, has widened from $759 per ton to $1,231 a ton on Friday.
Tom Price, Panmure Liberum analyst, said: "Although the word copper was not mentioned in Trump's announcements last week the markets have clearly priced in the possibility of tariffs after the February investigation. This shows the strong demand for the metal from investors."
In February, Trump launched a probe to determine whether new tariffs could be imposed on imports of copper, a critical metal for electric vehicles, military equipment, and semiconductors.
LME aluminium remained steady at $2.443.50 per ton after having touched its lowest level in May at $2.425.50. The U.S. Midwest Aluminium Premium jumped 54% since Friday, to $0.58/lb ($1,279 per ton).
Goldman Sachs said in a report that the U.S. Midwest Aluminium Premium would increase to $0.68-0.70/lb if higher metals tariffs are implemented and remain in place.
Lead increased by 0.9% to $1975, Zinc gained 1.7% at $2,663.50. Tin rose by 0.8% to $30,600, and Nickel was up 0.9%, to $15,365.
The softer dollar made metals more accessible to holders of other currencies.
Neil Welsh, Britannia Global Markets' head of metals, explained that the Dragon Boat Festival in China was responsible for the low Asian participation on Monday. Reporting by Ashitha Shivprasad from Bengaluru, and Polina Deitt in London. Editing by Kirby Donovan.
(source: Reuters)