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As markets digest US tariffs, copper prices are on the rise
The London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) saw copper prices range-bound on Friday. After an initial shock from the U.S. announcement that a 50% tariff on imports would be effective on August 1, the market was waiting for more details. As of 0101 GMT, the LME's three-month copper was down by 0.18%, at $9,683.5 a metric ton. The contract is down 1.73% this week and could be heading for a second consecutive weekly decline. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract edged up 0.18% to 78.530 yuan (10,943.12) but is still on course to finish the week with a loss of 1.97%. The U.S. president Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting on August 1, to promote the domestic development of an important industry for automobiles, electronics and defense. The futures analyst of a Beijing metals company who requested anonymity said that there were still many unknowns, including what copper products would be included in the plan, whether or not the 50% was final, or if it could be changed, and whether or not the implementation date will be extended. The COMEX premium was $2,615 per ton in the previous session. This is a 27% drop from the peak reached on Tuesday. Traders have shipped about a full year's worth copper to the United States. Analysts said that with so much copper shipped to the U.S. already, it may not be possible to implement the tariff as announced. However, an increase of 40% is more likely, even if the tariff was implemented. Nickel fell 0.2% on Friday to $15,260 and LME lead dropped 0.54%. SHFE nickel rose by 1.03%, to 121.140 yuan per ton. Zinc was up 0.58%, at 22.415 yuan. Aluminium was up 0.27%, at 20.725 yuan. Tin advanced 0.16%, to 265,430, yuan. Lead eased down 0.73%, to 17.090 yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. DATA/EVENTS - (GMT) 0600 UK GDP Estimate MM & YY 0600 UK Services MM & YY 0600 UK Manufacturing Output MM & YY 0645 France Final CPI (EU Norms) MM YY 0645 France NSA MM YY 0645 France NSA MM YY 0645 France NSA MM YY 0645 France MM YY NSA 0645 ($1 = 7.1762
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Bloomberg News reports that Trump's tariffs on copper will include semi-finished goods.
Bloomberg News, citing sources familiar with the situation, reported that President Donald Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper, which would apply to semi-finished products used in power grids, data centers and the military. Trump announced on Wednesday a new tariff of 50% on copper, effective August 1, to encourage the domestic development of a critical industry for defense, electronics, and automobiles. Could not verify the report immediately. The White House didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. "Copper is essential for Semiconductors, Aircraft, Ships, Ammunition, Data Centers, Lithium Ion Batteries, Radar Systems, Missile Defense Systems, Hypersonic weapons, which we are building in large numbers," Trump stated on a Truth Social posting Wednesday. In February, the White House launched a Section 232 inquiry into copper imports. This was done using a law which gives the president authority over higher tariffs based upon national security. This is the latest of a series of tariffs Trump has imposed on sectors such as steel and aluminium that will increase costs for American consumers, according to economists. (Reporting and editing by Saad sayeed in Bengaluru, Rhea Abraham in Bengaluru)
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The oil price has recovered slightly, but US tariffs and OPEC's downgrade are still weighing.
Early Friday, oil prices were stable after a 2% decline in the previous session. This was due to President Donald Trump's tariffs that are expected to harm economic growth and a reduction in OPEC demand estimates. Brent crude futures increased 19 cents or 0.28% to $68.83 per barrel at 0037 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude ticked up by 26 cents, or 0.39% to $66.83 per barrel. In its World Oil Outlook 2025, published on Thursday by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the organization cut its predictions for the global oil demand from 2026-2029 due to the slowing Chinese market. OPEC has forecast that global demand will average 106.3 millions barrels per day in 2026. This is down from the 108 million bpd predicted in the last year's projection. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Thursday a tariff rate of 35% for goods imported to the United States from Canada starting August 1. He also said that the United States would impose blanket duties of 15% or 20 percent on most other trading partners. In the morning, Trump had threatened to impose punitive duties on Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy. He also announced plans for duties on semiconductors, copper and pharmaceuticals. According to EU diplomatic sources, the European Union will propose a floating Russian crude oil price cap as part of a new package of sanctions this week. The current cap has become irrelevant due to a drop in oil prices, said these sources.
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LSEG data show that the price gap between east and west for diesel in July is at its widest level in two-and-a half years.
LSEG data on Thursday showed that the immediate July price differential between diesel prices in Asia & Europe widened to a discount near $120 per metric tonne, its largest in slightly over 2-1/2 years. According to data, the last time the exchange of futures swaps (EFS) or the price differential between ICE Gasoil Futures and Singapore Swaps was at this level was at the end October 2022. The ICE Gasoil Futures Contract for July expires later this Thursday. As of 0830 GMT, the August EFS had a discount per metric ton of $35. A larger EFS spread is likely to encourage swing suppliers from India and the Middle East, to send their cargoes over to Europe in order to take advantage of higher prices. LSEG's shiptracking data shows that most of the cargoes from the Middle East, India and other countries bound for West of Suez markets are loaded in the first half of July. James Noel Beswick, analyst at Sparta Commodities, said that the unprecedented rise in European diesel prices created arbitrage opportunities for sending supplies from Asia and the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe. A Singapore-based trader stated that the large backwardation of ICE gasoil contracts could pose a risk, as it may lower the prices of their cargoes when they reach Europe during the second half of July or August. Backwardation is a market structure in which prices for immediate months are higher than future months. The July/August ICE Gasoil Spread The price of Russian oil is $110 per ton. This is the highest since October 2022, when the European Union placed an embargo against Russian oil following the Ukraine War. August/September Backwardation is $16-17 per ton. Reporting by Trixie YAP, Editing by Louise Heavens & Florence Tan
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How a US tariff of 50% could affect Brazilian exports
U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he will impose tariffs of 50% on all Brazilian products starting August 1. This could have a significant impact on South America’s agricultural powerhouse. Brazil's second largest export market is the United States, behind China. Brazil's primary export to the U.S. is oil, but it is also a major market for Brazilian manufactured products such as aircraft and machines. COFFEE Brazil is the largest coffee exporter in the world. The U.S. is the primary destination. Brazil exports 16.7% of its coffee to the U.S. Four sources in the trade told us that U.S. roasters will not be able pay more than 50% for the beans. Brazilian exporters are unable to cut the prices to the required level. This could cause roasters to look elsewhere to buy their beans. Brazil is likely to divert its cargos to Europe or Asia. The U.S. ranks as the second-largest market for Brazilian beef. Brazilian meatpacker Minerva claimed that tariffs could reduce its net income by up to 5% per year. JBS and Marfrig are two major meatpackers that have a significant part of their operation in the U.S. This would insulate them against a big impact. Tariffs may increase beef prices, which are already high in the U.S. ORANGE JUICE CitrusBR, a group representing the industry, warned that Trump's new tariffs could have a severe impact on Brazil's orange-juice industry, which is the largest in terms of production. The U.S. was a major market for orange juice in Brazil during the harvest of 2024/25, which ended June 30. CitrusBR stated that the tariff was "unsustainable" as the profit margins of the industry were too small to absorb additional costs. The group said that other importers wouldn't be able offset the drop in shipments into the U.S. According to data from commodities consultancy StoneX, Brazil exported 13% of its total oil last year. According to BTG Pactual, the loss to Brazil would be "modest" as the sector is more flexible in terms of commercial and logistical capabilities to divert shipments to different markets. StoneX estimates that the U.S. will also not feel the impact of the tariff, since Brazil has supplied less than 3 percent of the U.S.'s consumption so far in 2025. AIRCRAFT Embraer of Brazil, the third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world, with a large market for its regional jetliners and executive planes in the U.S., would be among the most affected companies by the tariffs. According to analysts from BTG Bank, Brazilian aircraft exports to America, specifically airplanes, accounted for around 63% last year of the total number of aircraft exported. TIMBER According to BTG analysts, the U.S. accounted for more than 40 percent of Brazil's total timber exports last year. Cogo Inteligencia em Agronegocio is a consulting firm that said forest products from Brazil will become less competitive compared to other countries, like Canada and Chile. Citi reported that Suzano, the pulp giant, with 15% of its revenue in the U.S. could be in trouble in the near future, but it benefits from low costs, the flexibility to reallocate volume, and the global scale. MACHINERY ENGINES & ELECTRONICS According to BTG, the U.S. accounted for 60% of Brazil's exports in the engine, machinery, and generator industries. UBS BB analysts said that the tariff would hurt WEG. According to the Brazilian Electrical and Electronics Industry Association, the U.S. also is the top destination for Brazilian electronic products.
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How a US tariff of 50% could affect Brazilian exports
U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he will impose tariffs of 50% on all Brazilian products starting August 1. This could have a significant impact on South America’s agricultural powerhouse. Brazil's second largest export market is the United States, behind China. Brazil's primary export to the U.S. is oil, but it is also a major market for Brazilian manufactured products such as aircraft and machines. COFFEE Brazil is the largest coffee exporter in the world. The U.S. is the primary destination. Brazil exports 16.7% of its coffee to the U.S. Four sources in the trade told us that U.S. roasters will not be able pay more than 50% for the beans. Brazilian exporters are unable to cut the prices to the required level. This could cause roasters to look elsewhere to buy their beans. Brazil is likely to divert its cargos to Europe or Asia. The U.S. ranks as the second-largest market for Brazilian beef. Brazilian meatpacker Minerva claimed that tariffs could reduce its net income by up to 5% per year. JBS and Marfrig are two major meatpackers that have a significant part of their operation in the U.S. This would insulate them against a big impact. Tariffs may increase beef prices, which are already high in the U.S. ORANGE JUICE CitrusBR, a group representing the industry, warned that Trump's new tariffs could have a severe impact on Brazil's orange-juice industry, which is the largest in terms of production. The U.S. was a major market for orange juice in Brazil during the harvest of 2024/25, which ended June 30. CitrusBR stated that the tariff was "unsustainable" as the profit margins of the industry were too small to absorb additional costs. The group said that other importers wouldn't be able offset the drop in shipments into the U.S. According to data from commodities consultancy StoneX, Brazil exported 13% of its total oil last year. According to BTG Pactual, the loss to Brazil would be "modest" as the sector is more flexible in terms of commercial and logistical capabilities to divert shipments to different markets. StoneX estimates that the U.S. will also not feel the impact of the tariff, since Brazil has supplied less than 3 percent of the U.S.'s consumption so far in 2025. AIRCRAFT Embraer of Brazil, the third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world, with a large market for its regional jetliners and executive planes in the U.S., would be among the most affected companies by the tariffs. According to analysts from BTG Bank, Brazilian aircraft exports to America, specifically airplanes, accounted for around 63% last year of the total number of aircraft exported. TIMBER According to BTG analysts, the U.S. accounted for more than 40 percent of Brazil's total timber exports last year. Cogo Inteligencia em Agronegocio is a consulting firm that said forest products from Brazil will become less competitive compared to other countries, like Canada and Chile. Citi reported that Suzano, the pulp giant, with 15% of its revenue in the U.S. could be in trouble in the near future, but it benefits from low costs, the flexibility to reallocate volume, and the global scale. MACHINERY ENGINES & ELECTRONICS According to BTG, the U.S. accounted for 60% of Brazil's exports in the engine, machinery, and generator industries. UBS BB analysts said that the tariff would hurt WEG. According to the Brazilian Electrical and Electronics Industry Association, the U.S. also is the top destination for Brazilian electronic products. Roberto Samora with Luciana Madalhaes and Rodrigo Viga Gaier, Marta Nogueira and Fabio Teixeira reporting, Fabio Téixeira writing, Pedro Fonseca editing, Deepa Babington and Deepa Fonseca.
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Brazilian real surges, stocks edge higher as investors weigh Trump’s latest tariffs
Investors weighed the latest trade announcements by U.S. president Donald Trump on Thursday. The Brazilian real recovered from its losses after Trump announced a 50% tariff against goods from Brazil. Delta Air Lines, which helped Wall Street stocks rise 12% after forecasting profits for the third quarter and the full year above analyst's estimates, jumped. United Airlines and other travel stocks rose as well, with United Airlines up 15.3%. Trump confirmed late Wednesday that a 50% copper tariff will be implemented, with effect from August 1. The last time U.S. Copper prices rose on the day was late Wednesday. On Wednesday, the Brazilian real's volatility gauges reached their highest level since late April and the real fell as much as 2,3%. The dollar fell 0.6% last Thursday against the real while Brazilian stocks dropped about 0.5%. Brazilian President Luiz inacio Lula da silva vowed to retaliate against unilateral tariff increases and called for a ministerial meeting on Thursday. Some traders believe that U.S. consumer prices could increase dramatically on staples such as coffee and orange juice, if the Administration sticks to its Brazil Import Plan. The market's reaction to Trump’s recent moves has been milder than it was in April. This could be because investors are hoping that the ongoing trade negotiations between Washington, D.C. and its trading partners will result in an agreement before the deadline. Investors are also preparing for the second-quarter earnings and looking for any signs of impact from Trump's Trade War launched on April 2. Bruce Zaro of Granite Wealth Management, Plymouth, Massachusetts said that the market appeared to be in a hold pattern before the S&P 500 company reports. JPMorgan Chase will release its results on Tuesday, which is essentially the start of the reporting period. He said that there was a lot of skepticism among the analysts who follow the S&P 500. They've all been reducing their estimations based on tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding that. "But, we believe, after all, that those tech companies and growth companies will come up with fantastic earnings." I believe the market is still in a period of waiting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 259.72 points or 0.59% to 44,718.67. The S&P 500 rose by 21.75 points or 0.35% to 6,285.02 while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 34.47 points or 0.17% to 20,645.81. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 2.70 points or 0.29% to 927.00. The pan-European STOXX 600 ended up with a 0.54% gain. Bitcoin Rallyes Another all-time record. The largest cryptocurrency in the world has reached a new record high of $113.734.64. The price is up 21% so far this year. Investors digested the upbeat quarterly results of TSMC, which showed strong interest in artificial-intelligence applications, fueled by strong demand for TSMC's products. The dollar index measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies. The index rose by 0.28%, to 97.65. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields Investors focused on the impact of tariffs on inflation in advance of next week's key consumer price data. U.S. crude oil fell $1.81, settling at $66.57 per barrel. Brent settled at $68.64 a barrel, down by $1.55.
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Union says EPA must reinstate workers placed on leave due to a dissenting letter.
Leah Douglas WASHINGTON (July 10) - A union official wrote to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin Thursday that employees of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency who were recently placed on leave for signing a critical letter of Trump's administration policies should be reinstated. The 139 employees and hundreds of other EPA personnel signed the letter of June 30, accusing the agency harmful deregulatory action and ignoring science. Under the direction of President Donald Trump's directives, the agency is going through a major restructuring, which includes staff reductions, elimination of grant programs and grants, and environmental justice. In a letter to Zeldin, Justin Chen, the president of the American Federation of Government Employees Council 238 which represents over 8,000 EPA staff, stated that putting the employees on leave constituted illegal retaliation. All investigations and disciplinary actions should also be stopped. Chen stated that "These employees engaged protected speech in a matter of public concern and their actions are protected by federal law as well as our collective bargaining contract." The EPA didn't immediately respond to a comment request. The agency has previously stated that it has a “zero-tolerance” policy against career bureaucrats who illegally undermine, sabotage, and undercut the agenda of the administration.
The Gulf's major markets are on track to extend their gains
The major stock markets of the Gulf gained ground in the early trading on Wednesday. This was after recent losses caused by global trade wars and economic concerns.
Trump increased duties on Chinese imports by 104%, accusing Beijing of manipulating yuan in order to offset the levies. But caution won out. China did not bow down to this blackmail and vowed to "fight until the end".
Trump's tariffs on specific countries and products have been in effect since 0401 GMT.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark Index gained 0.4%. Saudi Arabian Mining Company Ma'aden rose 2.2%.
Ma'aden may choose at least one foreign firm to form a rare-earths processing partnership. This was reported on Tuesday by three sources who were familiar with the matter. The kingdom is aiming to become a global hub for critical minerals.
Dubai's main stock index rose 0.2% thanks to a 2% increase in the sharia compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank, and a 0.9% rise in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties.
Oil prices, a key factor in the Gulf financial markets, have dropped to the lowest level for more than four-years on fears that an escalating trade war between China and the U.S., two of the world's largest economies, will curb economic growth.
In Abu Dhabi the index increased by 0.9%.
The benchmark Qatari index was up by 0.4%. This was led by the 1.4% increase in Qatar National Bank, the largest lender in Gulf before its earnings announcement.
(source: Reuters)