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Base metals continue to decline as US-China conflict fuels recession fears

On Monday, London's base metals continued to decline. Copper hit its lowest level for over 16 months due to fears of reduced demand and increased chances of recession after trade tensions between China and the United States.

By 0920 GMT the benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange was trading 0.7% lower, at $8,710 a metric ton, after falling as low as $8,105 in the earlier session.

Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell by 0.9% to 2,356 per ton. Lead also dropped 1.8% to 1,871, while zinc was down 2% at $2,602.5. Tin was down 4.6% to $33,750, and nickel fell 3.1% to $14,300.

Edward Meir, Marex consultant, said: "We believe that base metals will likely reach their highs in 2025 as they appear to be adversely affected by the U.S. - China crossfire."

"Our base case" sees metals demand deteriorating and, in effect, reducing supply shortages.

The tensions on the trade front continued after President Trump told journalists over the weekend that the investors would need to take "medicine" and he wouldn't make a deal until the U.S. deficit in trade was solved.

China responded with a series of countermeasures including an extra 34% tax on all U.S. products and export restrictions on certain rare earth metals.

Citi has lowered its copper and aluminum price forecasts for the 0-3 months to $8,000 and 2,200 respectively. It noted that it was entirely possible that "these goals are achieved over the coming weeks, if not more likely in the next three months."

Bank of America forecasts that, based on the US-China trade conflict of 2018/19, copper prices could fall below $8,000 a ton this summer. Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru. Editing by Janane V. Venkatraman.

(source: Reuters)