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Oil prices drop on fears of a trade war, despite Russian supply threats
The oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday, as concerns over the impact of a global trade war on growth trumped fears about the supply being affected by threats from U.S. president Donald Trump to impose second-tier tariffs on Russian crude or bomb Iran. Brent futures fell 10 cents or 0.1% to $74.67 per barrel at 0013 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures dropped 11 cents or 0.1% to settle at $71.37 after reaching five-week highs the day before. In March, a poll of 49 economists & analysts predicted that oil prices will remain under pressure due to U.S. Tariffs and slowdowns in India & China while OPEC+ increases production. A slower global growth could reduce fuel demand and offset any decrease in supply caused by Trump's threats of bombing Iran and imposing secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers. After Trump's threats initially increased prices on Monday traders said they saw the president's warnings towards Russia at least as a bluff. Trump told NBC News on Sunday that he is very angry with Russian president Vladimir Putin, and will impose secondary tariffs between 25% and 50% on Russian oil purchasers Moscow tries to stop efforts to end war in Ukraine. The tariffs would hurt the biggest oil customers of Moscow, China and India, and disrupt global oil supply. Trump threatened Iran, too, with bombings and tariffs similar to those he had imposed on the United States if it did not agree with Washington over its nuclear program. Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly inventory figures. These data will be closely watched by the market as they are released before official statistics from Energy Information Administration. Five analysts interviewed by estimated that U.S. crude stocks fell by an average of 2.1 million barrels during the week ending March 28.
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Two Michigan business groups warn that Trump's auto tariffs could cause autoworker hardship.
Two Michigan business groups have urged President Donald Trump not to proceed with plans to impose 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts. They said that this would result in dramatic price increases, disruptions to the supply chain, and pain for Michigan's auto-heavy economy. The Detroit Regional Chamber, along with MichAuto, a mobility and automotive association, wrote in a joint letter that the increased costs could cause disruptions throughout the supply chain, and would, most importantly, result in significant increases for American consumers. The pain of working class citizens in Michigan will be severe. About?$300 Billion? is contributed by the auto industry. Detroit Regional Chamber estimates that the auto sector contributes about?$300 billion annually to Michigan's economic growth. Trump announced last week that he would follow through with his threats to impose new tariffs on imported vehicles. He said a 25% tax on cars not made in the U.S. will be imposed on April 3, on top of existing duties. He may also announce new auto duties as part of the sweeping new tariffs that he will be announcing on Wednesday. The groups claimed that the tariffs would harm the state's auto industry and economy. They noted there were more than 1,000 automotive manufacturers based in Michigan. The letter continued, "The tariff policies will increase prices and drive down consumer demand. This will lower the profitability of the companies. It will directly affect the hardworking Americans that assemble these iconic vehicles." Some owners may decide to keep their old cars longer if the new car price is higher. This could increase used car prices. The letter stated that "these increased vehicle costs would be disproportionately paid by middle-class and working-class families." Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, responded by noting that automakers such as Hyundai had announced new investments in America and arguing that those investments along with Trump's request for a new deduction on interest rates on car loans will "continue to drive historic manufacturing growth and job creation." A group of General Motors, Ford and Toyota representatives, Stellantis, Stellantis, and others, warned that tariffs would increase vehicle costs. Hyundai warned auto dealers that they might need to adjust their prices if tariffs go into effect.
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Greenland strengthens Danish links as it seeks independence
Greenland's new prime minister said on Monday that it will continue to strengthen its relationship with Denmark until the island can become a sovereign country. He noted that the semiautonomous Danish territory eventually wants to be independent. Jens-Frederik Nielsen (33), was sworn-in as Prime Minister of Greenland, Friday. He will lead a coalition government made up of four parties, despite the challenges presented by U.S. president Donald Trump's ambitions for control over the island. Nielsen stated, "We are currently in the Kingdom Denmark and we must continue to strengthen our relationship, our partnership, until we become a sovereign country." He added, "We're building on a strong relationship with Denmark until we become sovereign." He said Greenland was interested in a partnership based on respect for each other with the United States. "Greenland won't ever be part of America... We want trade." We do want to have a strong relationship on national security but in a respectful way. Nielsen stated that "we will never sell ourselves and will never become Americans." Nielsen was asked about the comment made on Friday by U.S. vice president JD Vance that Denmark did not do a good enough job in keeping Greenland secure. "Right Now, we are in the phase of building them up and we need solutions together." Vance, who visited a U.S. base in northern Greenland last Friday, accused Denmark of failing to protect the island. The Danish have controlled Greenland's strategic location since 1721. "We don't wish to be Americans." In the future, we don't want to be Danes either. We want to be independently. Nielsen continued, "But right now, we're part of the kingdom of Denmark. That's what's going on." (Reporting and writing by Tom Little, in Nuuk; editing by Sandra Maler).
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Trump's trade tariffs and threats
Since returning to office in January, Donald Trump has issued numerous tariff threats. These range from a duty on all imports to a targeted tariff on certain sectors or countries. Trump's threats changed over time. This left other nations and business unclear as to what was next. It also created uncertainty for consumers and triggered a recent stock-market selloff. Here's a summary of Trump’s threats and actions in relation to trade. BROAD TARIFFS Trump's vision is based on a gradual roll-out of tariffs that will apply to all U.S. imported goods. Last month, Trump asked his team of economists to devise plans for reciprocal duties on all countries that tax U.S. imports. They also had to come up with ways to combat non-tariff barriers, such as vehicle safety regulations that exclude U.S. automobiles and value added taxes that raise their costs. Trump announced on March 30 that he planned to announce a massive tariff program, which he called "Liberation Day." All nations will be included in the reciprocal tariffs that he plans to announce. The potential counter-tariffs imposed by global trading partners on U.S. agricultural and energy exports, as well as machinery and equipment, could escalate into a world trade war and create uncertainty for investors and businesses. Specific COUNTRIES Trump's tariff proposal targets several key trading partners. MEXICO AND CANADA : Mexico and Canada were the two largest trading partners of the U.S. from 2024 to November. Trump's new tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico, Canada and the European Union took effect on 4 March as a response to migration and fentanyl. Tariffs were imposed on the majority of goods imported from Mexico and Canada. A 10% tax was also imposed on Canadian energy imports. Canada exports mainly crude oil, other energy products and cars and auto components within the North American automotive manufacturing chain. Mexico exports a variety of goods to the U.S., including industrial and automotive products. Canada retaliated with 25% tariffs against US imports worth C$30 billion (US$20.7 billion), including orange juice and peanut butter. Other products include beer, coffee, motorcycles, appliances, and motorbikes. The Canadian government said that it would add additional tariffs to C$125 billion worth of U.S. products if Trump's Tariffs are still in effect in 21 days. This could include vehicles, steel and aircraft, as well as beef and pork. In his address to Congress on March 4, Trump said that further tariffs will be implemented by April 2, including "reciprocal duties" and non-tariff measures to address trade imbalances. U.S. Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick stated that U.S. officials could still work out a partial solution with the two neighboring countries, and added that they need to do more in the fentanyl arena. Trump retracted his planned tariffs of 50% on Canadian steel and aluminum after a Canadian official backed down from plans to impose a 25% surcharge for electricity exported to the United States. Canada, which is the largest foreign supplier of aluminum and steel to the United States (C$29.8 Billion), announced on March 12 that it would impose retaliatory duties on U.S. imports worth C$29.8 Billion ($20 billion) as a response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs. CHINA: Trump imposed 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports to the U.S. effective February 4, after repeatedly warning Beijing that it was not taking enough measures to stop the flow of illegal drugs into the United States. Trump then added another 10% tariff on Chinese products, which took effect on March 4. This is on top of the 25% tariffs that were imposed during Trump's initial term on Chinese imports. China announced additional tariffs between 10% and 15% on some U.S. Imports starting March 10, as well as a number of new export restrictions for certain U.S. Entities. It then complained to the World Trade Organization about the U.S. Tariffs. China announced on March 12, that it will take all measures necessary to protect its rights and interest, following the increase in tariffs by U.S. president Donald Trump on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum. Trump has said that the EU, and other countries, have alarming trade surpluses against the United States. He said that the products of the other countries will be subject to tariffs, or he would demand they purchase more oil and natural gas from the U.S. despite the fact that U.S. export capacity for gas is close to its limit. In a statement released on 14 February, the European Commission stated that the "reciprocal trade policy" was a step backwards. Trump has threatened to impose a "reciprocal rate" of 25% on European goods. Pharmaceuticals are among the industries that could be affected, since U.S. companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and others have large facilities in Ireland. Ireland is also a leading exporter of medical equipment. In response to the U.S. blanket tariffs on aluminum and steel, the European Union announced on March 12 that it would begin imposing counter-tariffs next month on goods worth 26 billion euros. Trump announced on March 13 that he would slap 200% tariffs on European wines and spirits as a response to EU plans to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey, among other products. PRODUCTS AUTOS: Trump announced a 25% tariff for imported cars and light truck on March 26. The 25% tax would be added to previous duties on imported finished vehicles beginning on April 3. Trump's directive includes temporary exemptions for auto components that comply with the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), a trade agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term. The tariffs will apply to other major imports of automotive parts. These are identified by Trump as "engines and engines parts, transmissions, powertrain components, and electrical component" and they will be imposed on a specific date that is to be announced in the Federal Register, but no later than "May 3, 2025." Metals: On March 12th, Trump raised tariffs for all imports of steel and aluminum to 25% and extended duties to hundreds downstream products. These include everything from nuts and bolts, to bulldozers blades, to soda cans. More than half of the U.S.'s aluminum and steel imports come from Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Trump ordered on February 25, a new investigation into the possibility of new tariffs on imports of copper to rebuild U.S. manufacturing of this metal, which is critical for electric vehicles, military equipment, semiconductors, and a variety of consumer goods. Just over half of the refined copper that America consumes every year is produced domestically. SEMICONDUCTORS : Trump stated that tariffs would start at "25% or higher" and increase substantially over a period of one year. He did not specify when they will be implemented. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the largest contract chipmaker in the world, produces semiconductors for Nvidia and Apple, among other U.S. customers. In 2024, it will generate 70% of its revenues from North American clients. LUMBER: On March 1, Trump ordered a new investigation into trade that could add more tariffs to imported lumber. This would be in addition to the existing duties on Canadian Softwood Lumber and 25% tariffs for all Canadian and Mexican products. ALCOHOL: Trump threatened on March 13 to slap 200% tariffs on wine, cognac, and other alcohol imported from Europe in response to the European Union's plan to impose tariffs next month on American whiskey and products -- which is itself a retaliation for Trump's 25% tariffs that went into effect on steel and aluminium imports the day before. Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru, Puyaan, Seher, Anmol, Choubey, Arasu, Kannagi, Basil, Aatreyee, Dasgupta, and Vallari Srivastava. Editing by Sriraj, Marguerita, and Alan Barona.
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Brazil's Petrobras and BNDES partners to buy carbon credits for Amazon region
The partners announced on Monday that Brazil's state oil company Petrobras, and Brazil's development banking institution BNDES had partnered to create a financing program for forest restoration initiatives in Amazonia. Petrobras, under the ProFloresta+ Program, will hold tenders for carbon credits generated by restoration projects. The winning bidders can apply for low-interest loans to establish projects from BNDES. The pilot phase of the program is expected to generate investments of 450 million reais (78.45 millions) for restoration. This will lead to the replanting and regrowth of 15,000 hectares of forest. Petrobras is expecting to sign contracts for long-term with up to 15 companies that will participate in an auction scheduled to take place in July. Magda Chabriard, Petrobras Chief Executive said that the company would open the door to green entrepreneurs obtaining subsidized credits. She added that the tender will establish the benchmark price of carbon credits from Brazilian restoration projects. Carbon credits are permits that can be traded to allow the owner of the credit to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. Each carbon credit allows the emission of 1 metric ton or equivalent in other greenhouse gases. Petrobras began buying carbon credits when it announced that it would offset carbon emissions by using its premium gasoline Gasolina Podium in 2023.
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Owner Stroll: Aston Martin will continue to be in F1 for many decades.
Lawrence Stroll, the team owner of the Silverstone-based outfit, said that the Aston Martin brand would be present in Formula One for many decades to come. Aston Martin has announced that it will raise more than 125 millions pounds ($161.9million) from Stroll, the company's chairman, as well as the sale of the stake in its F1 team, which is controlled and owned by the Canadian. The billionaire stated in a press release that "these moves demonstrate Aston Martin's position on the Formula One Grid is as secure and ever." Aston Martin and its British racing-green colours will continue to compete in Formula One, thanks to the long-term sponsorship agreement that AML has signed with AMF1. The team's title sponsor, Saudi energy giant Aramco said Stroll had asked investment bank Raine Group for help in finding a buyer for Aston Martin stake. They said that Rainey would work closely with AMF1’s commercial chief Jeff Slack in order to find a strategic investor, who could add value long-term to the team and brand. (Reporting Alan Baldwin; editing by Ken Ferris).
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Petrobras reduces diesel prices first time in over a year
Petrobras, the state-run Brazilian oil company, announced on Monday that it would lower its refinery gate prices for diesel fuel for the first time since more than a calendar year. This is because local prices are currently higher than import parity. In a press release, the company announced that it would reduce the price of diesel sold by distributors to 3.55 Reis ($0.6197 per liter) starting April 1. Gasoline prices will remain unchanged. This is the first time the oil giant has changed the diesel price since February when they raised it by nearly 7%. It's also the first change since December 2023. The good news is that the leftist president Luiz Inacio Lula has seen his approval ratings plummet in recent months due to high inflation. Petrobras, under Lula's leadership, has implemented a new pricing policy that is designed to protect Brazilian fuel prices from the volatility of international markets, while maintaining a profitable sales model for the company. Petrobras made the move in response to the strengthening of Brazil's currency against the U.S. Dollar this year. This occurred at a time when global oil prices were trading below the levels they were at the last price increase. Petrobras diesel prices were above the import parity for most of this week and were 2% higher on Monday according to Abicom. Magda Chabriard, CEO of Petrobras, said at an event in Rio de Janeiro, that the company will also lower the prices of jet fuel, but did not provide any further details.
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Comex gold stocks are on course to reach new records in the coming months
Analysts and traders claim that gold stocks in Comex storage facilities are likely to reach new records within the next few days, due to the possibility of tariffs preventing shipments from other countries to the United States. According to the latest data from Comex (part of CME group), gold in US warehouses has reached a record high of 43.3 millions troy ounces, worth $135 billion, compared with 17.1 in November, when Donald Trump became U.S. president. On Monday, spot gold prices soared to new highs of $3,100 an ounce. Bullion prices are up 19% this year, after a 27% increase in 2024. Sources say that although gold flows have slowed, they are still continuing to flow to the U.S., as Trump promised to announce a massive tariff policy on Wednesday. He has called this "Liberation Day." A source at a Swiss refinery said, "There's still material going to America almost every day." The world's largest bullion transit and refining hub is Switzerland. Comex received 25.4 million ounces worth $79 billion in gold between December and March as the threat of U.S. tariffs on imports increased the premium between Comex Futures and London Spot Prices. These flows of gold, which are carried by planes at high speeds, are the most obvious example of how uncertainty has affected the price and the physical state of the market. BNP Paribas estimates that the Comex gold stock is equal to 5 years' worth of U.S. gold consumption. This comes out to 8.8 million ounces per year. Adrian Ash, BullionVault's head of research in London said: "I wouldn't be surprised if gold exports from the U.S. started anytime soon." The market may see a trend reversal or at least a slight easing if gold is not included in U.S. tariffs. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said: "If this is confirmed, there's no reason that some of these bars shouldn't be sent back to London. It remains the main trading center for physical gold." London, which is the largest gold trading center in the world, has absorbed the shock of the massive supply to New York. Liquidity improved, as central banks lent money and stored their bullion in the vaults of the Bank of England (BoE). According to three sources who are familiar with the situation and requested anonymity in order to disclose operations, the waiting time for loading gold out of BoE vaults is now only 2-3 weeks, down from 4-6 weeks back in January. BoE has declined to comment. London Bullion Market Association reported 8,477 tons of gold as of end-February - still six times the amount of gold in Comex gold stock. Analysts say that the price discovery process is still in London. (Reporting and editing by Pratima Deai, Aurora Ellis and Polina devtt)
ICE, the parent company of NYSE, plans to introduce battery metals as derivatives in 2019.
An executive at Intercontinental Exchange said that the exchange plans to launch derivatives for battery metals Nickel, Cobalt, and Lithium Spodumene later this year in London.
"Our customers are looking to us for products to hedge." "Our role is to ensure that there is a broad range of products," Chris Rhodes said at the FT Global Commodities Summit held in Lausanne, Switzerland.
The launch of battery raw materials will begin this year with lithium, cobalt and spodumene.
The global exchanges are attempting to capitalize on the expected strong growth in demand of minerals required for electric vehicles and batteries.
The London Metal Exchange (LME), CME Group Inc., and the London Metal Exchange offer futures contracts in cobalt and lithium.
Since its launch in July 20,23, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in China has seen a strong increase in its Lithium Carbonate Futures. However, foreigners are not allowed to participate.
The Singapore-based Abaxx Commodities Exchange began trading nickel sulphate in January and a contract for lithium carbonate earlier this month.
Global Commodities Holdings Ltd, a UK-based company, announced last year that it would be working with ICE on creating cash-settled contracts for derivatives that could be settled and cleared centrally.
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd owns the LME. Dmitry Zhdannikov reports, Eric Onstad writes in London and Hugh Lawson edits.
(source: Reuters)