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Chinese consumers turn to Congolese copper off-exchange to ease supply shortages

Chinese consumers turn to Congolese copper off-exchange to ease supply shortages

Analysts and traders predict that China will import more refined off-exchange copper in this year as the output from Congo increases and consumers look to ease shortages and avoid a possible disruption of supplies of U.S. Scrap.

The expected surge demonstrates the increasing reliance of China, as the largest copper consumer in the world, on the supply of refined metal from the Democratic Republic of Congo. DRC is now the second-largest producer of copper after years of massive Chinese investment.

The Congo is a typical source of equivalent grade (EQ), copper, because the producers did not pay to register their metal on an exchange like the Shanghai Futures Exchange. This means that it cannot fulfill contracts on this market. EQ copper is cheaper than metal that has been registered, even though both meet the same specifications.

Six traders and analysts involved in the Chinese market for copper said that they expect EQ's market share and import volume to increase again this year. According to Shanghai Metals Market, EQ copper was responsible for 62% (up from less than half) of China's imported refined copper last year.

According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics data, the refined copper market is still tight. The global demand has outpaced supply for 9 of 12 month in 2024. Citigroup predicts a deficit of 136,000 tons in 2025.

Small- and medium-sized Chinese manufacturers of wires and rods are attracted to the lower-priced, high-quality EQ Copper. They have been squeezed by high copper prices. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) prices have increased by 18% since last year, and 9% from the beginning of the year.

"EQ has become quite popular in China during the last few years." A copper trader explained that the main reason for this is because EQ copper has the same quality as registered brands, but at a cheaper price.

LSEG data and Chinese customs show that almost three quarters of Congo’s 2 million tonnes of refined copper went to China in the past year. According to SMM, the bulk of this was EQ-copper.

Imports of refined copper from the DRC into China in 2024 will be seven times greater than in 2019.

According to Fastmarkets data from March 4, the premium for EQ copper that has a minimum metal content of 99.9935% was between $3 and $15 per tonne. Fastmarkets data on March 4 shows that the premium for EQ copper with a metal content of a minimum 99.9935% over the LME price was $3-$15 per tonne.

This discount is due to the lack of registration fees, but also because registered copper commands a premium price as its purity and quality are recognised by an exchange.

A number of traders stated that they were unaware of any quality problems with EQ Copper.

This increased reliance on Congolese scrap could compensate for a possible loss of U.S. scrap imported amid President Donald Trump’s tariff investigation into copper.

China imported nearly 440,000 tonnes of copper scrap last year from the U.S. Imports are expected fall, and some traders already have suspended purchases due to concerns that the trade war may increase costs.

The supply of refined copper is still limited, and this includes scrap, concentrate, anode, and blister. Jonathan Barnes, Principal Analyst at metals research firm Project Blue, said that we expect to see higher imports for abundant refined copper including EQ Copper in order to partially compensate for the tightness of other raw materials.

(source: Reuters)