Latest News
-
CERAWEEK-Freeport-McMoRan hopes Trump declares copper a critical mineral
Freeport-McMoRan CEO Kathleen Quirk expressed her hope that U.S. president Donald Trump will declare copper to be a critical metal. This would allow tax credits for the American production of red metal, and help offset its global competitors, she said. Trump said to the U.S. Congress that he would take "historic action" to expand production of vital minerals, but he has not yet provided details. Copper is widely used in the global economy for power generation, electronic devices and construction. The U.S. Geological Survey identifies lithium, nickel and other minerals as essential. Quirk said that adding copper to Freeport's portfolio would generate tax credits of more than $500,000,000 annually tied to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. Quirk said that "clarity and incentives" would be an advantage for the copper industry in the United States. Freeport, a Phoenix-based company, has appointed a new CEO Last year. People are becoming more aware of the importance and uses of copper in our economy. It's only a matter time before copper is classified as a "critical mineral". The former administration of Joe Biden extended the tax credit Critical minerals Last October. Copper producers can't access it unless they label their product as critical. Freeport is the largest copper producer in the United States, producing more than 200 million pounds of copper annually. Freeport operates one of only two U.S. Copper Smelters, and produces over 200 million pounds of metal each year using Leaching Freeport U.S. mines have a lower average grade or percentage of rock deposits containing copper than other Freeport U.S. mines. This increases costs, making this region the least profitable for Freeport. Quirk said that "we're not seeking handouts but it's important that the government recognizes that the U.S. does not have the same grades as we do internationally." Last month, Trump began a review of potential new tariffs for copper imports in order to rebuild U.S. manufacturing. Quirk, Freeport's CEO, said that the U.S. Copper Tariffs could increase the company's profit by $400 million per year, but the company is concerned about the impact of the tariffs on the global economic system. We're not advocating in any way. Quirk explained that they wanted to ensure that people were educated so that they could make informed decisions. GLOBAL OPERATIONS Quirk, Freeport's Indonesian representative, said that the company is working to finalize an agreement with Jakarta, which would allow the mine in Indonesia to continue operating. copper concentrate exports Trump has also expressed interest in mineral projects in Greenland, Ukraine and elsewhere. Quirk stated that Freeport will "always consider" potential international investment, but Greenland and Ukraine "are not on our short-term priorities list." The U.S. State Department stated on Sunday that it is open to exploring the possibility of exploring. Partnerships for critical minerals with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a country rich in minerals such as cobalt and lithium. Freeport sold their DRC operations to Quirk in 2016. However, they are looking for a return. Quirk said that Freeport was interested in returning to the DRC for the right opportunity. Quirk refused to comment on the question of whether Freeport was in talks with the DRC Government. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese, David Gregorio, and Ernest Scheyder)
-
US judge denies claim of ex-Rosneft boss to yacht seized
The U.S. Department of Justice won a victory on Monday when a U.S. Judge ruled that the former head of Rosneft, a Russian state-owned oil and gas company, did not have a claim to a $300 million yacht that U.S. officials seized in 2022. The U.S. District Court Judge Dale Ho’s decision strengthens federal prosecutors’ bid to forfeit the 348-foot Amadea (106-meter), which could be auctioned. Congress passed a law last year authorizing the transfer to Ukraine of Russian assets seized to strengthen its military defenses. Eduard Khudainatov who headed Rosneft between 2010 and 2013 tried to stop a forfeiture of the yacht by claiming that he would own it in 2023. Prosecutors in Manhattan, however, called Khudainatov "a straw owner" of Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov who is subject to U.S. sanction. Washington's diplomatic approach to Moscow has changed significantly since 2022, when U.S. officials seized the Amadea. As the former Democratic President Joe Biden's Administration increased sanctions against those close to Russian President Vladimir Putin to pressure Moscow to stop its war in Ukraine, the Amadea seizure occurred. After Republican President Donald Trump assumed office in January 2017, Attorney General Pam Bondi disbanded Task Force KleptoCapture. This group was responsible for a number of high-profile actions against Russian oligarchs, including the Amadea seize. On February 28, Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of not being grateful for U.S. assistance. Trump halted all military aid to Kyiv on March 3. Zelenskiy enjoyed warm relationships with Biden and said that he could save his relationship with Trump. Who owns the AMADEA? Forbes magazine estimates that Kerimov's family and himself are worth $10.9 billion. He amassed his fortune by working for Russian gold miner Polyus. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned him in 2014 and in 2018 for his Russian activities in Syria, Ukraine and other countries. The prosecution said that he had violated these sanctions by paying more than $1,000,000 in maintenance on the yacht. Khudainatov does not fall under U.S. sanctions. Adam Ford, his lawyer, said that prosecutors did not have witnesses to prove Kerimov's ownership of the Amadea. Ford told a court on Jan. 21, "There is nothing that connects Suleiman Kerimov with the vessel." At the hearing, Rachel Doud, the prosecutor said that Kerimov’s niece had paid 225 million Euros to a company controlled Khudainatov in 2021. Doud stated that Kerimov's entire family used the Amadea for Mediterranean and Caribbean cruises and planned major renovations. Prosecutors have stated that the Amadea docks in San Diego and the U.S. Government pays around $600,000.00 a month for its maintenance.
-
The Syrian presidency has said that the Kurdish-led SDF is willing to integrate with Syrian state institutions.
The Syrian presidency announced on Monday that the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which control much of Syria's oil rich northeast, had signed an agreement agreeing to be integrated into Syria's newly created state institutions. The agreement, which included an end to all hostilities, has been signed by the interim Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa, and Mazloum Abdi, commander of the SDF. According to the agreement, the text of which was published online by the president, all civil and military institutions located in the northeastern part of Syria will be integrated into the state. The latter will then take control over the borders, airports, and oil and gas reserves. The SDF has agreed to support the Syrian government against any threat to Syria's unity and security, including remnants of former president Bashar al Assad's regime. Since Assad's overthrow by Sharaa-backed Islamist forces, in December, groups backed Turkey, one Sharaa’s major supporters, have clashed against the SDF, which is the main ally of the U.S. coalition fighting Islamic State militants. The SDF is led by the YPG, a militia that Ankara views as a continuation of the Kurdistan Workers Party militants (PKK), who have fought against the Turkish state since 40 years. The SDF was pressed by the new Damascus government of Sharaa to be merged into the newly formed state security forces. Abdi expressed his willingness to have his forces join the new ministry of defence, but he said that they should be joined as a group rather than individually, a suggestion which was rejected by new government. The U.S., Turkey and their Western allies do not list the YPG as a terrorist organization. Reporting by Jaidaa TAH and Menna ALAA EL DIN; Editing by Tomasz Janowski & Kevin Liffey
-
Nigeria signs $200 million agreement to power rural areas using renewable mini-grids
Nigeria has signed a $200 million agreement with WeLight, an African Distributed Renewable Energy company, to deploy hundreds renewable mini-grids. The aim is to provide reliable electricity for millions of people in rural areas and the surrounding urban centres. This deal is seen as an important step by the most populous African country that wants to increase the renewable energy portion of its electricity mix to 50%. It also seeks to secure financing for this goal from private investors. The World Bank and African Development Bank are supporting a project that will build and operate 400 MiniGrids and 50 MetroGrids in Nigeria's rural areas. This will improve access to electricity for an estimated 1,5 to 2 million Nigerians, and help boost the local economy. WeLight is backed by international companies like Axian, Sagemcom and Norfund. The MOU was signed with Nigeria's Rural Electrification Agency, a government agency tasked to help millions of Nigerians who are without electricity. In a press release, Romain devilleneuve, Chief Executive of WeLight said: "This MOU represents not only a step towards providing clean electricity for millions in Nigeria, but also supports WeLight’s ambition to be a truly pan African company." (Reporting and editing by Tomaszjanowski.)
-
Scania, a Northvolt shareholder, has secured an additional supply of battery cells
Scania, the Swedish truck maker and shareholder of Northvolt, a struggling battery manufacturer, announced on Monday that it had acquired an alternative supply for battery cells in an effort to diversify their supply chain. Northvolt, once regarded as Europe's top contender for the electric vehicle battery leader, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November last year and is now seeking to raise money and restructure their debt. Scania stepped up to help Northvolt run its flagship factory in northern Sweden, in order to improve quality and production at the electric car battery manufacturer. Scania, owned by Traton, and its German subsidiary reported their results for 2024 on Monday. They said that the Swedish company had not met its 2025 goal of a reduction of 20% in scope 3, which is trucks used by its customers. Scania's report stated that "our ramp-up of battery electric truck did not progress as fast as we intended." Scania, the Swedish truckmaker, had previously relied solely on Northvolt. But Scania's CEO revealed last year that Scania was in discussions with other battery makers to supply its future electric fleet. Scania CEO Christian Levin stated in a letter sent on Monday that Scania is receiving more batteries from Northvolt then it uses in making its trucks, but is still diversifying their supply. Levin stated that "we have intensified our supplier strategy, and we have secured future battery cell deliveries." Scania's spokesperson refused to name additional suppliers. Northvolt's spokesperson declined to make any comment. The truckmaker reported that 77 zero emission vehicles were delivered in the fourth quarter and 266 for the entire year 2024. Supply chain problems were partly responsible for the slow ramp-up of our battery electric trucks. In its annual report, the company stated that "the ramp-up delay affected our progress on decarbonisation". Marie Mannes is reporting, with editing by Louise Breusch Rasmussen and Terje Solsvik, David Evans, Terje, and David Evans.
-
The Supreme Court is currently hearing the following cases:
In the current term of the U.S. Supreme Court, there are cases that involve guns, gender affirming medical care for minors who identify as transgender, online pornography and religious rights, TikTok and preventive healthcare. There are also cases involving funding Planned Parenthood, job discrimination and federal regulatory powers over nuclear waste storage, vape products and voting rights. Take a look at the recent and upcoming cases that the justices will be deciding. TRANSGENDER RIGHTS During arguments on 4 December, the court's conservative judges indicated that they were willing to uphold Tennessee's Republican-backed ban on gender affirming medical care for minors who are transgender. This case could have a significant impact on other state laws affecting transgender individuals. Biden's Administration appealed the decision of a lower court upholding Tennessee’s ban on medical treatment, including hormones and surgery for minors suffering from gender dysphoria. This refers to the distress caused by the incongruity of a person’s gender identity with the sex assigned at birth. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. 'GHOST GUN' On October 8, the court heard arguments over the legality a federal regulation enacted by former president Joe Biden to crackdown on "ghost gun" - largely untraceable guns whose use in crimes has increased. The lower court found the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives had exceeded its authority by issuing a rule that targeted parts and kits of ghost guns, which could be assembled in minutes at home. The justices indicated during the argument that they were willing to support the regulation. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. MEXICO GUN LAWSUIT On March 4, the justices showed sympathy for a request by two American firearms companies to dismiss the Mexican government’s lawsuit accusing the companies of assisting illegal gun trafficking to the drug cartels, and fueling violence in Mexico's southern neighbor. The justices heard arguments from Smith & Wesson, a firearms manufacturer and distributor of Interstate Arms in their appeal against a lower-court ruling allowing the lawsuit on the basis that Mexico had plausibly alleged the companies aided illegal gun sales and harmed its government. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. U.S. TIKTOK BAN On January 17, the justices upheld a federal law that would ban TikTok from the United States if the Chinese parent company ByteDance failed to sell the short video app within a time limit set by Congress. The Justices ruled, 9-0, that the law passed by Congress and signed by Biden last year did not violate First Amendment protections against government abridgment. The justices upheld a lower court decision that had supported the measure. Biden's replacement, Republican President Donald Trump chose not to enforce it and instead gave both parties time to work out a compromise. Online Pornography The Justices heard arguments about whether the First Amendment protects against government interference in speech when a Texas law requires that pornographic sites verify users' ages to limit access by minors. The justices voiced concerns over the availability and accessibility of online pornography, but also expressed concern about burdens placed on adults who wish to view constitutionally-protected material. A trade group representing the adult entertainment industry has appealed the decision of a lower court that upheld the Republican-led State's age verification mandate. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. WORKPLACE DISCRIMINATION On February 26, the court heard arguments in a case where a woman claimed that she was denied a job promotion and demoted because of her heterosexuality by an Ohio government agency. The justices seemed to favor making it easier for those from "majority backgrounds" to bring workplace discrimination cases, such as straight or white people. Marlean Amees, the plaintiff, said that she worked with a homosexual supervisor when, in 2019, she was demoted and passed over for promotion to a woman gay. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. RELIGIOUS SCHOOL The court will hear a case that tests the separation between church and state. Two Catholic dioceses are attempting to establish the first taxpayer-funded charter school in Oklahoma. St. Isidore Catholic Virtual School was shut down by a lower court, which ruled that the funding arrangement for the school violated First Amendment restrictions on government endorsements of religion. Arguments will be held on April 30. RELIGIOUS TASKS EXEMPTION In a case that could have constitutional implications, a Wisconsin Catholic diocese's arm is seeking a religious exemption to the state unemployment insurance tax. The Catholic Charities Bureau of the Catholic Diocese of Superior appealed the lower court's rejection of its exemption request. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the bureau, it could force Wisconsin and other states that have similar tax programs in place to expand their exemptions to conform to the First Amendment protections of the U.S. Constitution. The arguments are scheduled for 31 March. LGBT SCHOOL BIBLES The court accepted a request from religious parents who wanted to prevent their children from attending classes in a Maryland district public school when LGBT stories are read. This is yet another case that involves the intersection of religion and LGBT rights. Parents of children attending Montgomery County Public Schools filed an appeal after lower courts refused a plaintiff's request for a preliminary order ordering the district not to read these books. Arguments will be held on April 22. OBAMACARE'S PREVENTIVE CARE MANDATES The court will determine the legality of an important component of the Affordable Health Care Act, which gives a taskforce established under the Obamacare healthcare law the power to demand that insurers provide preventive medical services without charge to patients. The court heard an appeal from the Biden administration against a lower-court ruling which sided with a Christian group of businesses that objected to the fact that their employee health plans covered HIV-prevention medication. They also argued that task force structure was in violation of the U.S. Constitution. Arguments will be held on April 21. PLANNED PARENTHOOD FINANCE The court will examine South Carolina's attempt to cut off funding to Planned Parenthood. This case could support conservative states in the U.S. who want to deny Planned Parenthood government money for reproductive healthcare. A lower court barred the Republican state from cutting off funding to Planned Parenthood South Atlantic under the Medicaid insurance program. Arguments will be held on April 2. NUCLEAR WASTE STORAGE On March 5, the justices heard arguments over whether the Nuclear Regulatory Commission had the authority to issue licenses for certain nuclear waste facilities, amid objections raised by the state Texas and oil industry interests. The U.S. Government and a company awarded a license to operate an operation in western Texas by the NRC appealed the ruling of a lower court declaring that the storage arrangement was illegal. The NRC regulates nuclear energy in the United States. The NRC is expected to make a decision by the end June. FLAVORED VAPOR PRODUCTS On December 2, the court heard arguments in defense of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its refusal to allow two ecigarette companies to sell flavored products, which regulators believe to be a risk to health. The lower court ruled that the FDA failed to follow the proper legal procedures in federal law when they rejected the applications for the sale of these nicotine-containing products. The end of June is the expected date for a ruling. EPA AUTHORITY On March 4, the court handed a major blow to the Environmental Protection Agency with a ruling of 5-4. The case involved a wastewater treatment plant owned by San Francisco. This could make it more difficult for regulators and water quality inspectors to monitor pollution. The court ruled that the EPA had exceeded its authority in a law against pollution by including vague restrictions on a permit for the facility which empties into Pacific Ocean. In recent years, the court has limited EPA's power as part of a number of rulings that have curbed the federal regulatory agencies' powers. TAILPIPE Emissions A major case that tests the power of the Democratic-governed California to combat greenhouse gases is a challenge by fuel producers against California's standards on vehicle emissions and electric vehicles under a federal law on air pollution. Valero Energy, along with fuel industry groups, appealed the lower court's decision to reject their challenge against a Biden administration decision to let California set its own regulation. Arguments will be held on April 23. The Supreme Court is hearing a dispute regarding the legality and operation of the TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERIES FUND, a fund that Congress authorized to be operated by the Federal Communications Commission in order to increase access to telecommunications. The conservative Consumers' Research group and others accused Congress of illegally delegating authority to an independent federal organization. The FCC, along with a coalition including interest groups and telecoms companies, appealed an earlier court decision which found that Congress had violated the Constitution when it gave the FCC the authority to manage the fund. Arguments will be held on March 26. LOUISIANA ELECTORAL MAP Justices will rule on a challenge brought by voters who identified themselves as "non African American" to a Louisiana electoral map which increased the number of Black majority congressional districts. Three federal judges determined that the map of Louisiana's six U.S. House of Representatives district - which now has two Black-majority areas, instead of one - violated the Constitutional promise of equal treatment. Arguments will be held on March 24. Death Penalty Case On February 25, the court threw away Richard Glossip’s conviction in Oklahoma for a murder-for hire plot that took place in 1997 and gave him a fresh trial. In a 5-3 decision, the justices concluded that prosecutors had violated their constitutional obligation to correct false testimony from their star witness. The justices reversed the lower court decision which had upheld Glossip’s conviction. They also allowed his planned execution move forward, despite Glossip’s claim that prosecutors had wrongly withheld information that could have helped his defense.
-
Stocks and Treasury yields fall as Trump's interview fuels concerns about growth
MSCI's global equity gauge fell 1.7% on Monday after hitting a two-month-low earlier in the day. U.S. Bond yields also dropped, as investors became concerned about an economic slowdown following Donald Trump's refusal to rule out a recession related to tariffs. Investors began seeking safety even as early as the Sunday after Trump, in an interview with Fox News, talked about a "period transition". He declined to predict if his tariffs against China and Canada would lead to a U.S. economic recession. Robert Pavlik is a senior portfolio manager with Dakota Wealth, in Fairfield, Connecticut. He cited concerns about tariffs, including Trump's recent interview, as the main factors for Monday's risk off mood. When he says that there will be pain, he is telling you it may not be a short-term situation. Pavlik said that this may not be a tactic for negotiation. Tariffs can create uncertainty about costs, inflation, and economic growth. "You don't have a clear idea of the final goal and the outcome," he said. How do you prepare for this? How can you invest in the future if you do not know what it holds? The S&P 500 index was down 114.82, or 1.99%, at 5,655.38, and the Nasdaq composite was 641.86 or 3.48% lower at 17,562.91, both reaching their lowest levels since Sept. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 370.16 or 0.86% to 42,431.56, MSCI's global stock index fell by 14.79 points or 1.74% to 837.31, its lowest point since mid-January. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.99% and reached its lowest level for a month. After the Trump interview, investor confidence was shattered and yields dropped on U.S. Government bonds. Will Compernolle is a macro-strategist at FHN. He said: "If the White House occupant himself is not optimistic about the short-term expectations for growth, then why should the markets be optimistic?" The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 9.9 basis points, to 4.219% from 4.318%, late Friday. The 30-year bond rate fell by 8.7 basis point to 4.5299%, while the 2-year yield, which is typically in line with the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, dropped by 7.9 basis points, to 3.923%. The U.S. Dollar fell 0.68%, to 147.03 Japanese yen. The euro fell 0.04% to $1.0828, while sterling dropped 0.09% at $1.2909. Prices of oil fell on concerns about the impact U.S. Tariffs and increased production from OPEC+ producers. However, sanctions against Iranian oil exports prevented prices from dropping further. U.S. crude oil fell by 0.75%, to $66.54 per barrel. Brent dropped to $69.81 a barrel, a drop of 0.78%. Gold prices fell as profit-taking offset support from safe haven demand. Attention is also focused on the U.S. Inflation print due later this week. Spot gold dropped 0.31% to 2,901.73 dollars an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.1% to 2,907.50 per ounce. Copper fell 0.76% to $9540.00 per metric ton. Bitcoin fell by 3.54%, to $80 140.80. The U.S. executive orders on creating a reserve of strategic cryptocurrencies was issued on Friday. However, many investors were disappointed by the fact that there would not be any additional purchases of bitcoin. Data showed earlier that deflationary pressure was present in China. The consumer price index for February missed expectations, and dropped at the fastest pace in 13 month, and producer prices deflation continued, as seasonal demands faded, and as households were cautious in their spending due to job and income concerns. The benchmark Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell 1.9%, while China's blue chip CSI300 Index ended 0.4% lower. (Reporting and editing by Sinead carew, Nell Mackenzie, and Kevin Buckland, Kirby Donovan, and Andrew Heavens).
-
What are the challenges facing the EU with respect to Trump's first tariff round?
The European Union has prepared for the first round of U.S. Tariffs on Wednesday. These 25% tariffs will be applied to imports of aluminium and stainless steel, which is more than what U.S. President Donald Trump levied on EU metal imports last year. Here are some of the challenges that the EU faces. A BIGGER HIT than 2018 In 2018, Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs affected 6,9 billion euros of EU metal exports. The United States plans to apply the tariffs from 2018 again, and to raise the aluminum duty to 25%. Tariffs will be applied to "derivative products" such as steel machine parts, aluminium-rich articles, from car bumpers to tennis rackets to bows and archers. Global Trade Alert, a Swiss monitoring service, has estimated the value of EU imports of derivative products to be $20.3 billion. This is in addition to the 8 billion euro ($8.7billion) worth of metals themselves. RETALIATION In 2018, the EU retaliated with its own tariffs on 2.8 billion euro of U.S. imported goods. The EU was due to impose tariffs on another 3.6 billion euro of imports three years after the truce, but instead suspended them. On April 1, these countermeasures will be automatically applied. They target U.S. steel, aluminium, bourbon and motorcycles. The European Commission (which coordinates the trade policy of the 27-nation EU) must decide if these countermeasures will be implemented and whether other U.S. goods should be targeted. The Commission's proposed tariff measures will be implemented unless they are opposed by a "qualified majority" of EU member states. NEGOTIATIONS? Maros Sefcovic, European Trade Commissioner, said that the U.S. didn't seem to be engaged in talks to avoid tariffs. The EU would then respond to protect their businesses and workers. Sabine Weyand said in early March that it was unclear what kind of measures would be implemented, and there were still questions about the scope of products and how derivatives would be treated. The Commission stated that it is ready to meet with U.S. counterparts and discuss their complaints.
Andy Home: US tariffs threaten to bring boom times for copper traders
Physical copper traders are benefiting from the uncertainty created by the unpredictable tariffs of U.S. president Donald Trump.
Threatened U.S. duties on copper imports have opened up an opportunity of a lifetime for those who are in the business to move physical metals around the world.
CME copper contracts are now trading at a substantial premium over the London Metal Exchange contract (LME), opening up an enormous import arbitrage opportunity.
The rush to get physical copper to the United States before the deadline for tariffs has a knock-on effect on global trading patterns.
Investors are hesitant, as they fear the impact of a trade war on future copper prices.
Tariff turbulence
Since Trump's investigation of copper imports for national security reasons, traders have tried to factor in the possibility of U.S. Tariffs.
Tariff trade is represented by the CME premium, which is the price of the LME international price that has been cleared through U.S. Customs.
It's also proving to be an extremely volatile trade, reflecting White House's contradictory speech.
In his address to Congress, Trump stated that he had "imposed a 25 percent duty on foreign aluminum and copper, as well as lumber and steel". This was a surprise to the copper industry, as the Section 232 investigation of imports had only been announced last month.
The CME premium for London briefly soared to over $1,000 per ton based on Trump's comment, before retreating based on the consensus that Trump's mention was likely just a slip-up.
COPPER RUSSH
The arbitrage between CME-LME copper prices is not a concern for those who profit from regional differences in pricing.
The CME premium, based on London in May, closed around $800 per tonne last week, indicating that the shipping of physical metals to the U.S. has already been a profitable business.
Tariffs will make it even more profitable. It is important to obtain as much metal as possible, and then clear it through U.S. Customs prior to any changes in import duty.
In the last two week, 115,800 tonnes of metal were cancelled at the London Metal Exchange in preparation for the physical loading-out.
The LME warehouse system's volume of copper on warrant has dropped to a new low of 147.875 tons, a drop of nine months.
This metal is unlikely to be shipped directly to the United States due the low ratio of LME stock that meets the CME contract.
What is grabbed from LME warehouses will more than likely be traded with producers and consumers for CME-deliverable brand names from Chile, Mexico, and Peru.
DISLOCATIONS
It's an indication that the availability of copper is decreasing as it is being shipped directly to the United States or rerouted there.
As stocks fall, it is not surprising that LME spreads have decreased. The cash-to-3-months period
This has in turn shifted the arbitrage rate between London and Shanghai, giving Chinese smelters a chance to export at a profit.
The global physical copper market is likely to be affected by potential U.S. Tariffs.
Trade houses that have the market power to capitalize on supply chain shifts will reap the benefits of the regional dislocations.
FUND MANAGERS FEAR TREAD
The investment community has been largely ignored while physical traders scour the globe to find the best type of copper to send to the United States.
The CME copper contract has almost equal allocations between bulls and naysayers, with a net collective long of only 8,721 contracts.
Not only is there a price gap between the physical and futures market for copper, but also an engagement gap.
Investors tend to use "Doctor Copper" to make macro-trades, using the metal to speculate on global industrial growth.
The bigger picture of the economy is bleak as the U.S. government increases tariffs on Chinese products and threatens to impose reciprocal tariffs with all trading partners.
A survey of North American economists has revealed that the risk of recession is increasing.
Fund managers are cautious about the prospects of higher copper prices for the remainder of the year. They're also reluctant to short a market which is showing signs of tightness - albeit a highly regionalised one.
While Trump's tariff turmoil confuses the futures markets, the copper trade in physical form is making money now.
The author is a columnist at
(source: Reuters)