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Israel attacks Hamas leaders and blasts are heard in Doha
Israel attacked the Hamas leadership in Qatar on February 2, expanding its military operations that had been sweeping the Middle East, to include the Gulf Arab State where the Palestinian Islamist movement has its long-standing political base. Unofficially, an Israeli official confirmed that Israel attacked Hamas leaders in Qatar. Al Jazeera TV in Qatar, citing Hamas sources, reported that the attack was on Hamas Gaza peace negotiators. Witnesses reported hearing several blasts in Doha, Qatar on Tuesday. Legtifya's petrol station was erupting with black smoke. The small residential compound next to the petrol station has been guarded 24 hours a days by Qatar's Emiri Guard since the start of the Gaza Conflict. Israel media, citing an Israeli official, reported that the attack targeted top Hamas officials, including Khalil Al-Hayya its exiled Gaza leader and top negotiator. Qatar, the country that has been mediating between Hamas, Israel and other parties, has condemned Israel's "cowardly attack" on Hamas officials, calling it a flagrant breach of international law. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Mills, Jana Choukeir, Michael Georgy)
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Copper prices fall ahead of U.S. payroll benchmark revision
The copper price fell on Tuesday, as cautionary trading in anticipation of an important revision to U.S. employment numbers was offset by support from a major incident at a mine in Indonesia. In open-outcry official trading, the price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange dropped by 0.1% to $9.905 per ton. Commodity Market Analytics' Dan Smith said, "There has been a lot focus on the U.S. Economy with revisions to the U.S. Job Growth through March due today. Last Friday's data revealed that the job growth had almost stopped in August." Investors braced themselves for revisions which could indicate that the jobs market is in worse shape than originally thought. This would strengthen the case for further Federal Reserve interest rate reductions. The yuan has reached a 10-month-high against the U.S. dollar, which makes metals priced in dollars more appealing to Chinese buyers. The demand for copper remains strong, as China's Monday export-import figures showed. Smith stated that the rest of world is a cause for concern. Freeport-McMoRan has temporarily halted the mining of Grasberg in Indonesia, one of world's biggest copper mines. A large flow of wet materials blocked access to the underground mine and restricted the evacuation routes of seven workers. The two companies announced on Tuesday that Anglo American, a Canadian miner, and Teck Resources, a Canadian company, would merge. This merger will be the largest mining M&A in the past decade. Both companies have adjacent copper mines located in Chile. LME aluminium remained steady at $2.616.5 per ton, in official activity. This was despite daily LME data that showed available aluminum inventories. After 67,400 tonnes of new cancellations, the LME registered warehouses dropped to their lowest level in two months. LME zinc dropped 0.6% to 2,858.5. Lead fell 0.3% to 1,986, while tin dropped 0.2% at $34,200. Nickel also declined 0.2%, to $15,155. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Shailesh Kumar, and Polina Devitt)
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Russell: Crude oil prices fall as negative factors increase.
The crude oil market is now expecting a decline in prices. At the largest gathering of the industry in Asia, the discussion was more about timing rather than direction. The outlook for prices is the main topic of discussion and presentations at the APPEC annual conference. This week was no exception. The market has changed and this year the bull was the least sighted amongst a sea full of bearish participants. The two factors that dominated APPEC, despite the fact that there are a number of factors that influence crude oil prices were OPEC+'s decision to continue unwinding the production cuts as well as the risk to the global economic system from President Donald Trump's trade and geopolitical policy. First, there is the supply factor. The market expects OPEC+ to continue adding barrels as gaining market share has become a higher priority now than defending prices. The decision by OPEC+ to reduce production on September 7, 2013 to 137,000 barrels a day (bpd), was largely viewed to be minor and unlikely in itself to change the market balance. What is significant is that it is expected that the producer group - which includes the top exporters Saudi Arabia, and Russia - will continue to grow their output through the first half 2026, and unwind the 1,65 million bpd in cuts since April 2023. They have already stopped an additional 2.2 millions bpd cut from November 2023. Although it is unlikely that all these barrels make their way to market, with global demand forecasts at a maximum 1 million bpd for this year and the next, OPEC+ are likely to add enough to overwhelm the demand increase. Market consensus is heavily skewed towards an overhang of supply in the coming months due to the likelihood that non-OPEC output will also increase, particularly from the Americas outside the United States. Demand is also a clouded by uncertainty, mainly due to the impact of Trump's tariffs on imports. The impact of raising the average tariff for goods imports to 18% from 2% varies, but there is a consensus that it will slow down growth and increase inflation in the U.S., but lower inflation elsewhere. HIDDEN BULLS APPEC was not all gloom and doom. Some positive factors were also discussed. The bullish case depends on some things going better than anticipated, and others getting worse. The world economy is on the bright side, as it has been largely unaffected by the Trump attacks. Consumer sentiment and spending are holding strong in developed economies, while developing economies continue to be able to attract trade and investment. The worst case scenario would be to take more aggressive and successful measures to reduce the flow to India and China of Russian crude oil, which are the only two major buyers of oil that have been sanctioned in an effort to end Moscow’s war against Ukraine. It is also possible that more effective measures could be taken against Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil. There is also the risk of an increase in tensions between Israel and Hamas, given the conflict. The risk premium on the crude oil market is in some ways largely determined by what Trump decides to do. Ironically, the only thing that the unpredictable and inconsistent U.S. president has consistently said is that he wants to lower oil prices. It is the fear of what he may do that keeps a risk premium on the market and helps to keep Brent futures around $65 per barrel. Unknown is also what strategies China's refiners will likely adopt in the coming months. The International Energy Agency recommends 90 days import coverage. They are storing huge quantities of crude oil this year. Some estimates have reached 600,000 barrels per day. Their total storage now is estimated between 1.2 and 1.4 billion. China's stockpiles have been built largely due to discounted Russian barrels, and the lower prices for other grades of oil in the second quarter this year. The Chinese could be moving towards the idea that oil prices should be set at a range of $50 to $60, and they may begin to reduce imports to help lower the price. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and Twitter. Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman
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Climate finance from development banks to reach record $137 billion by 2024?
A report released by the banks on Tuesday showed that multilateral development banks had provided $137 billion of climate finance, an increase of 10% over the previous year. They also increased private sector funding by a third for climate-related investment. The increased investment comes at a time when nations are preparing for the next round U.N. Climate talks in Brazil, in November. Developing countries will be calling for more assistance to pay for climate change impacts caused by richer nations. In order to accelerate climate action, it is important that countries attend the COP30 with new plans for attracting private sector investment. This is a vital step because many countries have cut their official development aid. Nancy Saich is the chief climate change expert of the European Investment Bank (one of the development bank participants in the report). We hope that showing our financial flow will encourage countries to bring ambitious national climate plans with them to the COP. (Because) in general, we are not yet on the right track for a safe world and a temperature that is safe. The report stated that multilateral development banks (MDBs), directed the majority of their climate finance, $85.1 billion, towards low-and middle-income countries. Finance to the poorest nations in the world has more than doubled over the last five years. 69% of this amount, or 58.8 billion dollars, was spent on climate change mitigation, such as the use of renewable energy. The remaining 31% or $26.3 billion went towards adaptation projects to help countries cope with climate change. The report shows that MDBs provided $51.5 billion in funding to high-income countries during the same period. Of this amount, $46.5 billion went towards climate mitigation, and $5 billion went toward adaptation. MDBs increased private finance mobilisation to support climate change by a third, to $134 billion. (Reporting and editing by Helen Popper; Virginia Furness)
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Report: Extreme heat is a growing threat to venues for the 2026 World Cup
According to a study that highlights extreme weather risks, the 2026 World Cup in North America could be its last without urgent climate adaption. The "Pitches in Peril Report" found that 10 out of 16 venues were at a very high risk for extreme heat stress. By 2050, 90% of North America's stadiums will need to be adapted to extreme heat and a third will have a water shortage or demand that is equal to or greater than the supply. The report examined the effects of climate change on grassroots soccer fields that were once used by 18 legendary players. As a Spaniard, I cannot ignore the climate crises," said Spain's World Cup winner Juan Mata in reference to last year's devastating Valencia flooding. "Football is a great way to bring people together. But it also reminds us of the dangers we face." The conditions at this year's Club World Cup, held in the U.S., were described by players as "impossible". Extreme heat and storms forced FIFA, the world's soccer governing body, to change its protocols. They added water and cooling breaks as well as shaded benches and fans. The report states that 14 of 16 World Cup Stadiums in the U.S.A., Canada, and Mexico will exceed safe-play thresholds by 2025 in at least three climate hazards: extreme heat, unplayable rain, and flooding. Thirteen already exceed the FIFA threshold of 32degC for drinks breaks - a globally recognised index that measures heat stress on humans in direct sunlight. Atlanta, Dallas Houston, Kansas City Miami Monterrey and Monterrey have all had temperatures that are higher than this mark for at least two months. Dallas (31 days), Houston (51) and other cities are the worst affected. Climate risks are not limited to elite venues. While Dallas and Houston will reduce heat through roofs, they also extend beyond these stadiums. According to the report, forward Mo Salah’s Egyptian home pitch could experience more than one month of unbearable heat each year. Meanwhile, William Troost-Ekong’s childhood pitch in Nigeria could see 338 extreme days of heat by 2050. Piers Forster is the director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, a Leeds-based centre that studies climate change. The 96-page document urges the soccer sector to commit to zero carbon emissions by 2040, publish decarbonisation plans that are credible and calls tournament organizers to create adaption funds. The report also stated that 91% of the 3,600 fans surveyed across the three host countries want the World Cup in 2026 to be a role model for sustainability. (Reporting and editing by Ken Ferris; Martyn Herman)
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Greens in Norway are key players in the election and want to phase out oil gradually
The Green Party of Norway played a key role in Monday's re-election. It secured 4.7% of votes and ensured that Labour and its allies had 87 seats in Parliament - two extra than required to have a majority. The Greens have a number of energy-related policy proposals. Here's a breakdown of their main ideas, the potential impact they could have, and whether or not it is likely that these will be implemented: What do they want to do? The Greens are calling for an immediate halt to new petroleum exploration and a phase-out of existing activities by 2040. They also say that the country needs to remain a stable supplier of natural gas for Europe on a short-term basis, so the phase out must be gradual. Oil fields should take precedence over gas. Norway is now Europe's biggest gas supplier after the Russian invasion of Ukraine 2022. It provides one-third of all gas imported to the European Union. According to its proposal, existing fields will be closed one by one, starting with those that produce the most greenhouse gasses, the least revenue and more oil than natural gas. The Greens want to stop all investments that aim to increase production or extend the life of fields in production. This includes projects to electrify platforms offshore with power generated from land. WHAT WOULD THIS MEAN FOR THE STATE FINANCES Norway invests its oil and gas revenues into a sovereign wealth fund of $2 trillion, the largest in the world. The fund invests in bonds and equities as well as property, renewable energy and other projects overseas. According to the Greens, the state revenue from petroleum would fall by 70 billion crowns ($7.0billion) per year or 20% for the period until 2050. This is a worst case scenario, which excludes the potential positive impact of revenue from emerging industries in the context of the energy transformation. How likely is it to happen? Labour has four main parties that it relies on to support them: the Green Party, the Conservative Party, the Liberal Party and the conservative party. All four parties have different priorities, and the oil and gas sector in Norway is just one. Labour still needs to pass their budget next month, and will depend on its allies including the Greens to do so. Greens supporters will not expect them to win everything. But they need to demonstrate their support. What does Europe think? The Greens claim that their plan will maintain gas supplies in Europe for the short term, but in the long run the EU plans to reduce its emissions by 90-95% in 2040. This means its demand for fossil-fuels will decline. In a post on social media, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission wrote that she would work closely with Norway in order to promote a shared commitment towards energy independence and clean energy. Which fields may be closed and when? The Greens' plan could see the first eight fields, including the Snoehvit Field, which supplies Arctic Hammerfest, shut down by 2030. Arild Hermstad, leader of the Green Party, said: "This will reduce the emissions from fossil fuels and also ensure that we transfer the expertise, the people and the capital that this sector has to renewables." According to official data, the combined output of the four fields that will have the highest emissions by 2024 is 5.33 million standard cu metres of oil equivalent or 2.2% Norway's total production of petroleum. What about power exports? There are several parties in Norway who want to stop the cross-border exchange of electricity and refuse to renew interconnector cable - two cables from Denmark will be replaced by 2027. Not the Greens. The party supports the European climate goals and wants Norway, which is not part of the EU, to work closely with Brussels. The Nordic nation participates in the common market of the union via the European Economic Area Treaty.
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Phillips 66 purchases remaining stakes in US refineries from Cenovus at $1.4 billion
Phillips 66, a U.S.-based refiner, announced on Tuesday that it would acquire the remaining 50% of WRB Refining shares from Cenovus for $1.4 billion. This will give it complete ownership of two major U.S. refining plants. WRB includes Wood River Refinery in Illinois, and Borger Refinery in Texas. These refineries have a combined capacity of 495,000 barrels a day (bpd) for crude oil. The refineries, which would add approximately 250,000 bpd of net refining to Phillips 66’s capacity, can process both heavy and medium sour as well as sweet crudes and produce a large percentage of transportation fuels. Phillips 66 is focusing on its refinery business after a protracted proxy battle with activist Elliott Investment Management. Elliott advocated exploring the sale or spin-off of midstream and other divestments in order to focus on refining. Phillips 66 has sold its 65% stake of a German-Austrian fuel retail company earlier this year. Mark Lashier, CEO of Phillips 66, said: "By acquiring the Wood River and Borger refining plants in full ownership we strengthen our integrated business. We are also expanding our position within a region that we lead." The Canadian oil and natural gas producer also reported that some of its U.S. refining plants were underperforming. Cenovus says the WRB deal will simplify downstream operations and focus its attention on assets related to heavy oil operations. The companies anticipate the transaction closing between the third and fourth quarters. Cenovus will have plants in Lloydminster and Lima with a total capacity of 472800 bpd. Cenovus announced that it would use proceeds from the sale to reduce its net debt, and increase shareholder returns through increased share repurchases. Reporting by Vallari Shrivastava, Bengaluru. Editing by Tasim Zaid.
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CNBC reports that TotalEnergies CEO, NextDecade, will announce the FID for Rio Grande LNG Train on Tuesday.
By America Hernandez PARIS, September 9 - TotalEnergies' CEO Patrick Pouyanne told CNBC that U.S. developer NextDecade in which Total has a stake will announce its final investment decision for an additional liquefaction plant at the Rio Grande LNG Project later Tuesday. These comments were made at the GasTech Conference in Milan, Italy on Tuesday. Pouyanne stated that the U.S. had plenty of energy for a company such as TotalEnergies. We invest in the Gulf of Mexico, continue to explore LNG and gas, and announce a new train at Rio Grande LNG. The FID is expected today. Pouyanne said that he will meet the U.S. Energy and Interior Secretaries on Tuesday in order to discuss French energy's investments within the country. NextDecade didn't respond immediately to a comment request outside U.S. office hours. LNG, a Texas-based producer of LNG, has said previously that it is Mid-September is the target date For a FID of a fourth or fifth train (or liquefaction units) at Rio Grande. Once they have enough contracts to finance the project, LNG developers usually reach a FID for their projects. NextDecade announced on Monday that it had commercialized Train 5 with a 20-year contract. Supply agreement ConocoPhillips is a leading oil and gas company. TotalEnergies is the largest US LNG offtaker. It has a 17.5% interest in NextDecade, and a 16.7% in Phase 1, which includes the three first trains of the Rio Grande Project. It was reported that Total had signed a deal with Train 4 to buy 1.5 million tonnes per annum for 20 years. Rejecting the option to invest in Train 5. Reporting by America Hernandez, Paris. Editing by Louise Heavens.
Shanghai copper notches greatest regular monthly gain in 16 months
Shanghai copper prices ended March with their biggest regular monthly gain in 16 months in the middle of potential customers of lower supply.
The most-traded May copper agreement on the Shanghai Futures Exchange settled up 350 yuan, or 0.48%, at 72,530 yuan ($ 10,043) per metric lot on Friday.
That was up 5.4% on the month, the agreement's most significant regular monthly gain because November 2022.
The Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) approximates March improved copper output in China rose 2% on-year to 970,200 heaps.
Regular monthly output in the 2nd quarter will decline as smelters get in intensive maintenance, SMM added.
The London Metal Exchange is closed for the Good Friday holiday.
Chinese copper smelters concurred earlier this month to suppress their output amid short supply of copper ore and concentrate, sending out costs to a record high.
Copper is utilized in the power, transportation and building and construction sectors.
Lead futures costs rose to a four-month high on prospects of tighter supply. Since mid-March, large domestic lead smelters have actually been going through upkeep, which is expected to impact about 20,000 tons of production in April, according to analysts at Jinrui Futures.
Nexa Resources' current announcement that it would suspend production at its Morro Agudo lead mine in Brazil from May 1 also added to supply concerns.
SHFE lead climbed up 2.88% to 16,815 yuan a ton.
Aluminium settled up 1.41% at 19,710 yuan, nickel added 0.94% to 130,920 yuan, zinc increased 0.62%. to 20,945 yuan and tin rose 2.12% to 228,100 yuan.
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(source: Reuters)