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As dealmaking increases, activist investors will push for change.
In the months to come, activist shareholders will be more determined to press for corporate change. They'll also feel more confident to launch new campaigns now that the pace of deals is picking up. Investors, bankers and lawyers predict a rise in corporate leadership disputes, operational improvements, and spin-offs during the second half 2025. They said that many global corporations would prepare for time-consuming and costly battles. However, some activist investors might be willing to compromise. Alfredo Porretti is global co-head Shareholder Engagement and M&A Capital Markets for JPMorgan Chase. He said that the activity in the second half of the year would be more significant. "Activists have become more cautious, but they are still not taking action." After an unusually quiet quarter in which only 59 campaigns were launched, the expected rebound of global company campaigns will come after a second quarter that was unusually quiet. This included campaigns from Hewlett Packard Enterprise, a U.S. IT company, and Kenvue Consumer Healthcare, whose products include Band-Aids, Tylenol, and Band-Aids. The pace of investor campaigns to increase the price of shares slowed down by 16% between April and June compared to the first quarter. Barclays data shows that they were down by 32% compared to a year earlier. Investors reported that many activists were on the sidelines during the second quarter due to concerns about the impact of U.S. president Donald Trump's tax and tariff policies. Pam Codo-Lotti is the chief operating officer for Activism and Shareholder Advisory, Goldman Sachs. She said that "Activists reevaluated their public campaigns due to equity market volatility and macro-uncertainty in the second quarter." People familiar with the work of established corporate agitators like Elliott Investment Management and Jana Partners, as well as newcomers that have never publicly pushed companies to perform better are looking ahead to new ideas. Starboard Value, an activist group, bought a stake in Tripadvisor in the first few days of the second quarter with the intention to engage the management. Activists target companies in the fall and winter, well before the annual meetings of the following year. They often start off with private discussions before making their demands public. The companies are prepared for the anticipated onslaught. Two directors of large American companies who were not allowed to speak publicly about the preparations said that board members with a negative memory of previous activist pressure are pressing management to hire advisors to assess vulnerabilities now and to take pre-emptive actions. They said that long-serving directors could be replaced, or chief executives who are not keeping up with their peers may be fired. In times of economic uncertainty and volatility, Ingo Speich said, "Shareholder activism is more likely to be due to weak points in companies." Ingo Speich is the head of sustainability at German asset manager Deka Investment. Poor governance is the main source of shareholder activism. Companies in transition are more vulnerable, and this opens the door for more shareholder activism. In the first half 2025, 43% of activist campaigns have included a request for board changes. Mantle Ridge, an activist investor, successfully pushed board changes at Air Products and Chemicals and Elliott at Phillips 66. Bankers and lawyers are expecting a rise in demand for the sale of companies or spinoffs. This was only a part of 33% of campaigns during the first half. Investor confidence is increasing, they said. Goldman's Codo Lotti stated that "we expect public activism campaigns to increase in the second half, with renewed focus on M&A target, barring macro-headwinds." Bankers and lawyers say that after making their name with loud public campaigns waged years ago by investors such as Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman, many activists now want to lower their profile and avoid the headlines. According to a new study by SquareWell Partners, institutional investors who collectively manage $35 trillion in assets "overwhelmingly" view activism as an effective market force. 77% of them see it as catalyst for change, while 71% describe it as a driver of responsibility. After establishing their reputation, activists might be willing to settle for a quiet settlement rather than engage in costly and messy proxy battles. Jana Partners, for example, had long been pushing French-fry manufacturer Lamb Weston to make operational and board changes as well as possibly selling the company. The hedge fund avoided a high-profile fight in the boardroom by settling a dispute that placed four of their candidates on the board, and two others that both parties agreed upon. Porretti, JPMorgan's Porretti, said that "peace is indeed breaking out as more settlements have been reached and board seats are going to activists." He added "but settlements can only be reached if both sides feel a little weak." Reporting by Svea Autumn-Bayliss and Emma-Victoria Farr, Frankfurt; editing by David Gregorio
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OBR: Global 3C climate warming will hurt UK economy more than predicted
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimated on Tuesday that a rise in global temperature to nearly 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degree Fahrenheit), above pre-industrial levels, would hurt Britain's economic growth by much more than was previously thought. In its Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report, the OBR stated that the combined fiscal impact of climate damage and mitigating it could add up to 74% of the GDP in government debt in early 2070, compared to the latest long-term forecast. According to a United Nations report released in October of last year, current climate policies will result in global warming exceeding 3 degrees Celsius in the next century. The OBR has reduced its estimate of the cost to transition to a net-zero economy from 30% to 21% in 2021. However, they have increased their estimates of the impact of climate change on output. OBR estimates that a scenario with an increase of almost 3 degrees in global temperatures will reduce GDP levels by 8% early in 2070, as opposed to the previous estimate of only 5%. This would increase the primary government borrowing, which excludes interest payments on debt, by around 2% compared to a previous estimate that was 1.3%. (Reporting and editing by William Schomberg, Susan Fenton, and Andy Bruce)
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Investors assess new tariffs and gold falls as US bond yields increase
Gold prices fell on Tuesday as a result of higher U.S. Treasury rates, following the announcement by U.S. president Donald Trump that he would be imposing new tariffs on trade partners such as Japan and South Korea. As of 0905 GMT, spot gold fell 0.3% to $3324.19 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.3% to $3333.60. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes reached a two week high, which made non-yielding gold less attractive. Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS, said: "Gold is caught between a stone and a brick wall." The U.S. decision of extending the deadline for trade deals for many partners is negative for gold prices. Positive for gold prices is that U.S. key trading partners in Asia may have to face higher tariffs soon, which could weigh on economic growth prospects. Trump announced on Monday that he would be imposing tariffs of up to 40% in the next phase of his trade war, which he began in April. Trump stated that the new deadline is firm and he will consider extensions only if other countries make proposals for a deal. To allow time for negotiations, "reciprocal tariffs", which were supposed to be limited to 10%, had been set to 10% up until July 9, but so far only agreements with Britain and Vietnam have been made. Washington and Beijing reached an agreement in June on a framework for tariff rates. China warned Trump's administration to avoid re-igniting trade tensions and has threatened to retaliate by cutting the U.S. out of its supply chain if it does. Trump's tariffs are fueling inflation fears and complicating the path of the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Investors are waiting for the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting due on Wednesday to get more insight into the bank’s policy outlook. Silver spot was unchanged at 36.72 dollars per ounce. Platinum fell by 0.3% to 1,366.25 dollars, and palladium increased 0.5% to 1,116.86. (Reporting from Brijesh Patel and Anmol Chaubey in Bengaluru).
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Sources claim that India will import 10% of its cooking gases from the US by 2026.
Four industry sources with knowledge of the matter have said that India intends to import about 10% of its domestic cooking gas from the U.S. starting in 2026. This is part of an effort to increase energy purchases and narrow the trade gap between Washington and India. Middle Eastern LPG producers are the world's largest importers and consumers of liquefied gas. In 2024, more than 90% (or 20.5 million tons) of their imports will come from this region. LPG, a mixture of butane and propane used as a cooking fuel, is imported mainly by state retailers Indian Oil Corp. Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. and sold to households at a subventioned price. India rarely purchased U.S. LPG before due to the higher freight costs. However, state retailers started buying U.S. LPG after China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. LPG imports. Sources have previously said that India intends to eliminate the import tax on U.S. butane and propane used to make LPG. India has committed to increasing U.S. energy purchase by $10 to $25 billion within the next few years. The two nations also agreed in February to aim for $500 billion of bilateral trade by 2030. Data obtained from sources revealed that India's imports of U.S. crude oil have more than doubled in the past year. We are looking at the U.S. for a reliable source of crude oil and LPG. "We need to diversify the LPG sources we use," said one source who declined to give his name because he wasn't authorized to speak with media. India is diversifying its crude suppliers to support its growing refinery capacity and reduce geopolitical risk. LPG is mainly purchased from the Middle East on a FOB basis. The 10% Chinese tariff on U.S. propane has opened arbitrage opportunities for Indian customers, further encouraging a move to U.S. cargoes. He said: "We prefer to buy U.S. crude on a delivery basis, to reduce freight risks." Two sources reported that the Indian state refiners see an annual LPG growth of 5% to 6 %, and total imports will rise to 22 to 23 million metric tonnes by 2026. The Indian oil ministry as well as the three state fuel retailers have not responded to comments immediately. A third source in the industry said that pricing will be key in determining exact volumes of U.S. LPG imported. The International Energy Agency predicts that India's LPG consumption will grow by an average 2.5% per year between 2024 and 2030. This would amount to 1.2 million barrels of LPG per day or approximately 37,7 million tonnes. (Reporting and editing by Tony Munroe, Kate Mayberry, and Nidhi verma)
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Biochar boom? South Africa invests in super charcoal to create green jobs
Sithandekile Nyathi, a confident woman, climbs into the compact loader and lowers the metal cage around the vehicle. She then drives to large mounds wood chips. The chips are then transported by conveyer belt to a converter where they're heated up and transformed into activated carbon, a form of "biochar" that can store carbon and help reduce the planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions. "I was a maid before, and I never imagined I would be working in an industry which also benefits lives and the environment," said Nyathi. She is a controller in the Brakpan plant of Adsorb, South Africa's manufacturer of activated charcoal. South Africa, a country rich in coal, has become the face of international efforts to move towards cleaner industries and energy. These efforts have been slowed by funding issues, high unemployment and political divisions. This has raised questions about the best way to make this transition. Darryl Phipps is a chemical engineering and manager of Adsorb, where Nyathi also works. He believes that the plant, located in Brakpan east of Johannesburg, may be the first plant of its kind worldwide. It is possible because the wood chips are converted into biochar or activated charcoal using the heat generated by the converter. This allows the organic molecules to adhere to the surface of the charcoal and produces only clean flue gases. Experts say that some proponents believe the biochar industry can create jobs and capture carbon, but it is struggling due to a lack in South African data. According to the International Biochar Initiative, the global industry is expected to reach US$600 millions in 2023. This represents a 97% increase from 2021. Dataviz https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/24074049/ Researchers, farmers, and industry experts have praised biochar and activated charcoal for their ability to improve soil quality, water retention, absorb toxins, and capture carbon. According to Frontiers, when used as a fertilizer, biochar increases water-holding capability, which helps plants survive in drought conditions. According to researchers at the University of Venda, initial studies in South Africa's agriculture sector showed that biochar improved maize yield as well as soil health. However, they called for more long-term, intensive research. The South African Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment did not reply to requests for comments on the size and future of the biochar industry in the country. Workers like Nyathi, however, are optimistic. She said, "If I grow with my company, then I will also grow." JOBS CREATED AND CARBON CAPTURED South Africa's high rates of unemployment, funding cuts, and the size of the coal sector have all slowed the movement towards green energy and jobs. Phipps stated that Adsorb's converter can be replicated in other parts of South Africa as well as the world. Adsorb uses wood chip from pallet repair centers that originate from responsibly managed forests. The gas produced when the wood is heated to 1000 degrees Celsius first produces biochar, and then activated carbon. According to the academic journal Science of The Total Environment, activated charcoal can be used for industrial pollution removal and has a greater adsorption capability than biochar. Adsorb wants to convert this gas into electricity. Adsorb has captured approximately 750 tons of CO2 by 2024. It supplies activated carbon to the fertiliser, animal feed, and cosmetic industries. They are also looking at water treatment, mine rehabilitation, and cleaning mercury from coal gas. Phipps said that processing centres could be set up in areas that previously had coal mines or other mining operations. This could include communities producing biomass and supplying them to these processing centers. He estimated that if enough plants were built, they could create tens or even hundreds of thousands of jobs. Needs for DATA and FUNDING Experts said that despite the enthusiasm for biochar, there are few data and the estimates of the size of the South African market vary greatly, possibly due to the different classifications used when defining biochar. Romain Pirard is an environmental economist at the School for Climate Studies of Stellenbosch University. He said that to his knowledge, there was "no centralisation or policy specific to biochar". Phipps said that finding willing customers was also a challenge in the promotion of Biochar. He said that farmers are very cost-sensitive. If anything increases costs, this will damage the potential sales. Pirard stated that subsidies could be used to encourage farmers to "use biochar instead of chemical fertilizers" and use invasive, alien tree biomass as a way of helping biochar "take-off". Pirard stated that despite the fact that biochar has the potential to create green jobs, efforts to establish a biochar organization to centralise information and data on initiatives failed. The feasibility of the sector is still to be proven, he said. Phipps insists that they will be on to something great if additional finance is received.
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Philippines struggles to green school amid climate risks
Teachers urge investment in climate-resilient school infrastructure Philippines is facing a shortage of 165,000 classrooms Teachers fill funding and staffing gaps By Mariejo Ramos In the last decade, the government has adjusted the school calendars in order to avoid the typhoons season which begins usually in June. The government changed the school calendar to June to March this year after heatwaves forced the closure of schools in April and May. Teachers' groups are happy with the new calendar, but they also want the government do more than just tweak it. They want to invest in infrastructure to make schools resistant to heat and weather. Natural calamities have still left the Philippines' education system reeling. They damaged school buildings, and increased a shortage of classrooms that Department of Education estimates at 165,000 this school year. The Department has set an ideal classroom size of 40 students in high school and 35 students in primary school. According to news reports, the metro region of Manila averages 48 students per class. According to the United Nations Children's Fund, the classroom crisis worsens the impact of climate changes on Filipino children. At least 96 per cent of them experience multiple climate-related hazards, such as floods, heatwaves, and tropical cyclones. The education department, which has limited funds for repairs and maintenance each year, asks parents and teachers to help clean, organize and repair classrooms one week before school opens. Benjo Basas is a high-school teacher and spokesperson for the Teachers' Dignity Coalition. The group advocates the rights of Filipino teachers. Basas said that the solution to the problem of education is not to ask the community for help, but rather to increase the budgets of schools to cover repairs, operations and infrastructure. This is the responsibility of the government. Greening Philippine Schools According to the United Nations cultural agency UNESCO, it is crucial to green schools that classrooms are climate-proofed and emergency preparedness is improved. The Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos promised long ago to make the schools "climate ready." His plan involves retrofitting and expanding infrastructure to withstand climate catastrophes. The Department of Education defines climate-ready schools as "safe, resilient and learning-friendly school infrastructures that are inclusive, green, and safe." But greening Philippine schools remains daunting. The Philippine Institute for Development Studies, a think tank, conducted a study in 2024 that noted that classrooms are still crowded as the number of students increases and classrooms continue to deteriorate from natural disasters and wear and tear. The study found that electricity access is still a problem for some schools in the Philippines. More than 39,000 of these schools will need to upgrade their electrical connections by 2020 to prevent fires and to improve ventilation. Underfunded classrooms Raymond Basilio is an educator, and the secretary general of Alliance of Concerned Teachers Philippines. He believes that returning to the old school calendar will help prevent learning loss or a decline of academic skills and knowledge due to extreme weather conditions. According to the Second Congressional Commission on Education which is assessing the education sector, despite UNESCO's recommendation that countries allocate 4%-6% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to education, the Philippines never reached this target, spending only 3%. "Since the year 2022, there has been a persistent problem of under-utilisation of the Department of Education’s quick response fund. This fund is meant to be used for repair of classrooms that have been damaged by typhoons or other natural disasters," said Basilio. Instead of overloading teachers, we should build new classrooms, hire more staff, such as school nurses or doctors to reduce classroom congestion. Teachers often fill in the funding gaps as public schools struggle to find funds. Teachers who work in schools clinics or counseling offices are not paid extra. Basilio said that despite having other duties, teachers prioritize their students, and will intervene when there are gaps. This includes providing additional services at schools, despite not being professionally trained to do so. Basas stated that in some schools teachers would spend their own money on electric fans, or collect donations to improve classroom ventilation. Climate-Resilient Schools Basas, like Basilio, believes that addressing climate risk in Philippine schools is a matter of infrastructure. Not all schools have air conditioning. Also, we should ensure that the schools are not in flood zones. "Those are the basics," Basilio said. Basas suggests making changes in advance, rather than reacting to heatwaves or storms when they occur. Are school buildings earthquake and heat resistant? Are we sure that if it rains the campuses won't be submerged by flood? He said that there are still many cases in the Philippines which we have not yet resolved. However, the Department of Education said that it may take over half a century to solve the classroom shortage in this country.
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Brazil's Piaui State plans to use carbon credits for rainforest protection
It was announced on Tuesday that the Brazilian state of Piaui would issue carbon credits as a reward for actions taken to combat deforestation. This will give momentum to other regional initiatives to protect the country's forest. Brazil wants to keep its ambitions in reducing emissions, as it prepares for the next round of climate talks to be held in the Amazonian town of Belem this November. Piaui, unlike traditional forest protection plans proposed by private landowners and involving government and local communities, is focused on public sector efforts. These efforts cover a larger area and are aimed at avoiding simply shifting the location of deforestation. In the states of Tocantins, and Para, similar projects known as jurisdictional are currently being developed. Investe Piaui (the state's mixed-economy company) announced on Tuesday that it had signed a contract with Silvania, an investment firm, to provide 10-20 millions reais (3.69 million dollars) for the development of the program. Silvania, a Brazilian company, will be the credit taker. Systemica will assist with the technical side of the program. Geonoma, a company that provides environmental services, will be leading the development of the programme. The group stated that if Piaui reduces deforestation 10% annually, it can generate over 20 million credits in 2030, which they could sell to countries and companies to help them achieve their own emission targets. In a press release, the Governor of the state Rafael Fonteles stated that "Through Investe Piaui we will protect our forests and create sustainable opportunities for communities." Carbon credits may not always deliver the environmental benefits that they claim, but their importance could increase as governments become more focused on short-term cost and political will to combat climate change ebbs. This is despite scientists' findings linking human activity to record-breaking temperatures, extreme weather, and other extreme events. Last week, the European Union proposed for the first-time an EU climate goal that would allow countries to use credits of carbon from developing nations in order to reach a small portion of their emission goals.
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Copper prices rise amid uncertainty over tariffs and Chilean supply outlook
The London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw copper prices rise on Tuesday. However, uncertainty about U.S. Tariffs and increased supply of copper from Chile, which is the world's biggest producer, limited further gains. As of 0703 GMT the three-month copper price on the LME rose 0.3% to $9,860 a metric ton. The most traded copper contract on SHFE also increased 0.14% to 79.620 yuan (11,102.13 dollars) per ton. On Monday, the United States notified 14 countries of new tariffs that will take effect August 1, ranging between 25% and 40%. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, warned that a 10% additional tariff could be imposed if BRICS nations such as Brazil, Russia India and China pursued what he called "anti-American policies" during their Brazil summit. The market is still focused on U.S. tariffs as they haven't been finalized. A higher value of copper exported from Chile may indicate a larger supply, according to a metals analyst in Beijing from a futures firm. Chile exported $4.67 Billion worth of copper to the world in June, an increase of 17.5% compared with the previous period. ANZ reported that "Chilean Copper Mines enjoyed their best export month in three years in June", The U.S. continues to receive copper, despite Washington's investigation into possible new copper import tariffs. COMEX futures are still trading at a premium over the LME benchmark, and COMEX stocks have reached a 7-year high or risen 120% since February. LME nickel fell 0.31% to $15,130 per ton. Tin rose 0.57%, to $33,475, while lead grew by 0.56%, to $2 048, aluminium increased by 0.54%, to $2 587.5, and zinc climbed 0.47%, to $2 697. SHFE aluminium rose 0.12% to 20.525 yuan per ton. Nickel fell 0.67% to 120.370 yuan. Zinc dropped 0.61% at 22,050 Yuan. Lead eased 0.29% at 17,160 Yuan. Tin slipped 0.08% to 265480 Yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories.
Australia's central Bank keeps rates at 3.85% and stuns the markets
The central bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 3.85% on Tuesday, shocking markets that had confidently bet on a reduction. It said the majority wanted to wait until more information was available to confirm the inflation slowdown.
The Australian dollar rose 0.8% to $0.6545 while the three-year bond contract extended previous losses by falling 13 ticks to 96.5.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, which concluded a two-day meeting on policy, said that it was cautious about the outlook for inflation. Six members voted in favor of keeping rates the same, while three others voted against. This is a rare split vote by the board.
The markets had almost fully priced in an easing of the RBA to 3.60%, given that core inflation has slowed down to the midpoint of its 2%-3% target range. Consumer spending is also proving to be weaker than anticipated.
The board stated that they could wait until more information was available to confirm the inflation rate is still on track to achieve 2,5% on a sustainable base.
It noted that the monetary policy was well placed to respond to international developments, if they had material implications for Australian activity and inflation.
On Monday, Donald Trump escalated his global trade war by telling trading partners such as Japan and South Korea higher U.S. duties would begin on August 1. However, there were opportunities for further negotiations.
The RBA reduced interest rates twice in February and once in May. However, the cuts did not have much of an impact on consumer spending despite driving housing prices to new records.
A stubbornly frugal customer is the reason why the economy barely grew during the first quarter. Retail sales data suggest that households are saving instead of spending tax cuts.
In May, the closely watched trimmed average measure of inflation hit 2.4%. This was a three-and-a half year low. It also fell below the target range of 2-3%. Many economists shifted their call for a rate cut to July, from August.
However, the labour market remained resilient. This is why it's not a good idea for RBA to rush into stimulatory policies. Since over a year, the unemployment rate has been at 4,1%. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.
(source: Reuters)