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Data shows that Asia's diesel exports into Africa jumped in August and replaced Mideast supplies.

Data shows that Asia's diesel exports into Africa jumped in August and replaced Mideast supplies.
Data shows that Asia's diesel exports into Africa jumped in August and replaced Mideast supplies.

Data from ship trackers, and "trade" sources showed that Asia's exports of diesel to Africa were set to reach a?at a minimum a 4-1/2 year high?in august, as African buyers looked for alternative supplies after a drop in Middle East shipments.

Asia had the opportunity to send supplies to Africa after the U.S. - Iran war disrupted Middle East trade, and Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthis imposed a Red Sea blockade against Saudi Arabia, attacking Saudi Aramco Jazan refinery. This led to a 'decline' in Saudi exports into Africa.

Data from Kpler and Vortexa, as well as a trade source, showed that Asia, including India will ship between 1.8 million and 2 million metric tonnes (13.4 million to 14.9 million barrels), of diesel to Africa in this month.

The data from LSEG and Kpler showed that Middle East 'diesel exports into Africa fell in August to between 600,000 and 800,000 tonnes, the lowest level in 'almost nine years. This is due to the persistent shipping risks through the straits of Bab el-Mandeb, and the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Kpler, about?50% (or 40%) of Africa's exports last year came from the Middle East.

Multiple trade sources reported that a decrease in refinery operations at Saudi Aramco production sites, such as Jazan, has led to a further cap on its diesel exports.

Kpler data shows that shipments from Jazan refinery in Africa dropped to zero from 163,000 tons in July.

In August, traders sent more cargoes west because of a larger east-west spread or the difference between the front-month ICE gasoline and the 10ppm sulphur swaps.

The front-month east-west spreads increased to minus $135 a ton, up from minus 100 in July.

Alex Yap, senior oil products analyst with Energy Aspects, said that if Saudi tankers continue to avoid Bab el-Mandeb due to the Houthi menace, then east Africa must keep pulling barrels out of Asia because Europe will not spare anything given its current ultra-negative 'east-west spreads.

He added that the arbitrage in the West will likely remain viable for the near term due to the improvement in supplies in Asia as a result of a rebound in refinery runs, and the resumed exports from China.

In August, Asian refiners had averaged a diesel margin of $66 per barrel compared to $61 in July. This encouraged plants to increase production.

Due to rising spot prices, the benchmark Singapore Diesel Cash Premium has fallen to its lowest level in a month. It is now around $4 per barrel.

(source: Reuters)