Why $100 oil no longer scares equity markets, Stephen Jen

Why are global equity markets so resilient to the Iran Oil shock? Oil at $100 per barrel 'doesn’t mean the same thing it used to. Brent crude is up around 70% in price since the Iran War began on February 28, to $120 per barrel as of Thursday morning. Despite their volatility, global equity markets are still significantly above pre-war levels. There are a number of explanations but the most important one is rooted in mathematics. Fatih Birol is the head of the International Energy Agency. He has called the current oil crisis the worst ever - worse than the ones in 1973, 1979, or 2022. He says that the Strait of Hormuz closure and the war have affected crude oil supplies by 12 million barrels a day. Also, other energy shipments were affected. Birol claims that this is "the worst oil shock in history" compared to 1973's OPEC embargo, which caused 5 million bpd losses. If we adjust for inflation, and energy consumption, as a percent of the gross domestic product, both price increases and supply destruction do not appear as severe. The equity markets' resilience also appears more reasonable.

The denominator is important. First, it's important to compare the destruction of supply in relative terms and not across time. According to the IEA, the global oil consumption in the 1970s was 50 million bpd. This figure had doubled before the Iran War. The 5 million bpd was a lot higher back then. The global economy is also less oil-intensive. The global oil consumption has increased over the years, but as a proportion of GDP, this has declined. This is known as "oil intensities." According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, this ratio is about a third of 1973. To compare oil shocks over decades, it is also necessary to take into account inflation, which has increased by 650% in the U.S. since?the 1970s.

Our econometric estimations suggest that $100 per barrel today is the same as $50 before the Global Financial Crisis, or $5 in 1973.

U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM It appears that the U.S. economy has?become less vulnerable to a shock to oil of this magnitude. Based on the assumptions made above, our analysis indicates that a 50% oil price shock had a negative impact of 1.0% on U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over eight quarters in 1970, but would have only a 0.2% negative impact today. Our analysis suggests that the impact of large oil price shocks in the U.S. on inflation has declined to about a quarter the level of five decades ago.

The U.S. is also better placed than other regions. Oil price increases can have a negative multiplier effect on real economies - adjusted for inflation - but the multiplier effects vary between countries.

According to our econometric estimations, the U.S. has become half as sensitive as Europe or Asia to increases in oil prices. The gap has increased over time as the U.S. became more self-sufficient in hydrocarbons as a result the shale gas boom.

The U.S. is still heavily dependent on energy prices. However, the industries that are most affected by them, such as manufacturing, are now a smaller part of the economy.

Strong Fundamentals

It is important to remember that global economic growth - in particular the U.S. - was quite robust before the Iran War.

This is partly due to the massive transfers from the public to private sector during the COVID-19 Pandemic. The government's generosity has improved the financial situation of many households and businesses in major economies. The tech race, and the massive capital expenditures associated with it - mainly in the U.S.A. and China – continue to drive the global economy. History shows that a world where there is more competition between global powers - rather than less - will generate greater economic growth.

Of course, I'm not saying that high oil costs have no effect on economic growth or inflation. If oil prices spiked much higher, say closer to $200, then U.S. recession risks and global inflation concerns could overwhelm inflation worries, resulting in lower equity prices, stronger dollar and lower yields on bonds. Overall, however, global?economy may be more tolerant of oil shocks than many think. Oil prices will remain broadly range bound as long as they do.

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(source: Reuters)