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Euro zone faces big growth hit even if Iran war quickly resolved, IMF says

The 'International Monetary Fund' said that the growth of the Eurozone will slow and the inflation rate will rise this year, forcing the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. This is even if the economic disruptions brought on by the Iran War fade by the middle of the year.

The euro zone economy, which imports most of its energy needs, is particularly vulnerable to rising energy prices, especially as Russia's conflict in Ukraine has already affected the bloc's ability to access vital resources.

Growth is now seen slowing to 1.1% this year from 1.4% in 2025, below the 1.3% predicted in January, as the war ?more than negates better-than-predicted expansion at the end of last year, the IMF said in its World ?Economic Outlook.

The IMF stated that "the (war's) impact" will add to the effects of the rising energy prices, which have been a drag on the manufacturing sector since the invasion by Russia of Ukraine. There is also the pressure of the real appreciation in the euro compared to other currencies from countries exporting similar products.

The IMF, however, is more optimistic that the ECB which, last month, predicted a 0.9%?growth based on its own baseline before a rapid pickup in 2027.

The IMF said that a planned increase in defence spending would mitigate some of the expected drag, but because the spending ramp-up is relatively slow the boost will likely materialise in the future.

According to the IMF’s ‘baseline’ projection, the inflation rate will jump from 2.1% to 2.6% by?2026. This assumes the war is limited in duration, intensity and scope.

IMF stated that the ECB deposit rate of 2% is likely to 'rise by 50 % basis points over the course 2026 as a response to the inflation increase.

The market has predicted this increase and investors have priced in a 'rate hike' by June, assuming that the ECB would want to send a signal early that it won't tolerate inflation that goes beyond energy, and that creates a spiral of self-sustaining prices.

The IMF, like the ECB said, that even worse outcomes were possible. Its 'adverse and severe' scenarios predicted a greater impact on global growth and a higher inflation rate. (Reporting and editing by Alistair Bell; Balazs Coranyi)

(source: Reuters)