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Official: India is looking for alternative sources of fertilizer to increase its stock, says official
A senior government official from the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers said that India has adequate fertilizer stocks and is relying on 'alternative sources' to increase supplies for summer-sown crop plantings. Aparna Sharma, an additional secretary at the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, said that the Gulf region was responsible for 20%-30% of India's imports of urea, as well as 30% of Diammonium Phosphate before the Iran War. She said that India will need to purchase 39 million metric tonnes of fertiliser for the summer crop planting season. Current stocks are 18 million tons, compared to 14.7 millions tons last year. Sharma stated that "Further proactive measures have been taken to diversify our sources of sourcing outside the Gulf countries such as Russia, Morocco Australia, Indonesia Malaysia Jordan, Canada, Algeria Egypt and Togo, among others." In order to reduce their dependency on Middle East imports, Indian companies have signed several long-term agreements. These include 2.8 millions ton of Russian supplies for Cape of Good Hope. A government statement said that India had also launched a global tender in mid-February for the import of 1.3 millions ton of Urea. In April, India's six-month-long summer-sown harvest season begins. "April and May is a lean time and India uses these two months to?build stocks," Sharma said. She said that India's monthly urea output is 1.8 million tons, compared to the 2.4 million tons it produces on average, as some plants have just restarted after annual maintenance. Sharma said that India, which relies heavily on Middle East for a large portion of its liquefied gas imports - a vital feedstock for fertilisers - has been affected by the 'higher global prices for the crop nutrients and freight rates. The federal government continues to offer urea at reduced prices despite rising global prices. Reporting by Nidhi Sharma and Saurabh Varma, writing by Shilpa jamkhandikar. Editing by YPrajesh and Tomaszjanowski.
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The fear of aluminium shortages is heightened by Iran's attacks on Gulf producers
The Iranian strikes against major Middle East aluminium producers, such as Aluminium Bahrain and Emirates Global have heightened global fears about acute shortages. Already, the U.S. and Israel's war against?Iran as well as the closure of Strait of Hormuz have restricted the?shipments of aluminium to the export markets of the?U.S. The U.S. and Europe. Aluminium Bahrain, which operates 'the world's largest single site smelter said that it was assessing damage caused by the Iranian strikes. Emirates Global Aluminium said that its Al Taweelah facility suffered "significant damage". MIDDLE EST PRODUCTION & EXPORTS Around seven million metric tonnes of aluminium are smelted in the Middle East, which is around 9% global capacity. The global aluminium supply is estimated to be 75 million tonnes this year. One analyst stated that about 75% of Middle Eastern aluminum production is exported. Trade Data Monitor reports that Europe imported around 1.2 million tonnes of primary and alloyed aluminum from Egypt and the Middle East last year. TDM reports that U.S. imports from the Middle East of primary and alloyed aluminum accounted for nearly 22 percent of its total of 3.4 million tonnes last year. ALBA/EGA - PRODUCTION In March, Alba initiated a shut-down of three smelting lines, which accounted for 19% of the company's capacity, in order to maintain business continuity in light of the disruption in Strait of Hormuz. According to its website, Alba's smelter can produce up to 1.623 millions metric tons (or 1.8 million metric tonnes) of aluminium by 2025. EGA's Al Taweelah facility produced 1.6 millions metric tons cast metal by 2025. The company has an adjacent alumina refining plant at Al Taweelah that produced 2.4 millions tons of aluminium raw materials last year. EGA, which operates a smelter in Dubai at Jebel Ali, has said that it had a substantial amount of metal on the water and on the ground when the conflict started. EGA produces around 2.7 millions metric tons primary aluminium each year in the UAE. Impact on prices The London Metal Exchange's prices for metals used in transport, construction and packaging hit a four-year high of $3,492 per metric ton. Last week, the physical premium that European buyers pay over the LME price to cover freight, tax and handling costs?jumped to 469 dollars a ton, up $120 from the start of the war on February 28. U.S.?premiums were already at record levels due to President Donald Trump's 50% tariffs on imports, imposed last June.
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In Pakistan, heavy rains and floods have killed 45 people.
Authorities said that heavy rains in Afghanistan and Pakistan caused severe flooding and collapsed buildings, killing 45 people and injuring 74. Kabul warned of the continued dangers from bad weather. The National Disaster Management Authority said that the majority of deaths were reported in the war-torn provinces of Afghanistan, such as Parwan, Maidan Wardak and Daykundi, where torrential rainfall caused flash floods and landslides. This led to the destruction or total destruction 130 homes. It said that conditions remained "unstable", with the risk of more rain and flooding continuing in certain areas. "In total 1,140?families were affected," NDMA stated in a press release. The disaster management authority of the?Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in Pakistan, which shares a border with Afghanistan?, said that heavy rains caused walls and roofs to collapse on houses, killing at least 17 people. This included 14 children. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan are listed by the United Nations as countries that are most vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather. Last year, a fierce monsoon caused havoc in Pakistan. It killed almost 1,000 people, destroyed crops, livestock, and homes. In a report published in November, the United Nations Development Programme said that earthquakes, flooding, and droughts had destroyed 8,000 homes across?Afghanistan by 2025, straining public services to "their limits". Since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, international aid has been cut. The country is struggling to cope. Reporting by Sayed Hassib in Kabul; Additional reporting by Saud Mesud in Dera Ismail Khan; Writing by Sakshi Daal. Editing by Kate Mayberry & Keith Weir
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As investors purchase the dip, gold prices rise. However, fading bets on rate cuts cap the upside.
On Monday, gold rose?more than 1% as bargain hunters shopped. However, it was on track for its?largest month decline in almost two decades. Rising oil prices due the escalating Middle East war all but eliminated U.S. rate cut bets this year. Gold spot rose by 1.1% at $4,541.76 an ounce, as of 1122 GMT. It had gained more than 1% earlier. U.S. Gold Futures for April Delivery gained 1.1%, reaching $4,572.20. Ricardo Evangelista, an analyst at ActivTrades, said that after prices reached multi-month lows 'last week, traders saw the opportunity to buy the drop, driving the gains seen in precious metal today and on Friday. Last Monday, spot gold dropped to $4,097.99 an ounce, its lowest level since November 24, 2025. The metal is on course to have its largest monthly drop since October 2008. It has dropped more than 14% this'month. Brent oil prices continued to rise on Monday. They are on track for a monthly record after the Yemeni Houthis attacked Israel at the weekend. This has widened the conflict. Evangelista said that traders expect oil prices to stay high for a long time, which will likely fuel inflation and force central banks into adopting restrictive measures. This could mean keeping rates at current levels or even causing a further increase. Gold's appeal is boosted by inflation, but high interest rates reduce its demand. The traders have almost priced out the possibility of a U.S. rate cut this year. Bullion, which reached a record-high on January 29, still looks set to gain more than 5% this quarter. Investors are awaiting?Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell?s remarks?at an event at Harvard later that day. Spot silver increased 2.2% to $71.13 an ounce. Palladium rose 4.1% and platinum gained 2.9%. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Ronojoy Mazumdar)
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PetroChina's operations are 'overall' normal, and the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for 10% of its supply.
PetroChina's chairman stated that the company is essentially operating as usual, and about 10% of its crude oil and natural gas supplies are delivered via the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is responsible for 20% of the world's oil and gas supply. A raging Iran War and an expanding conflict in the Middle East has effectively choked this route, driving oil prices up and forcing refiners, petrochemical manufacturers, and most importantly, petrochemical producers in Asia to reduce their output. Dai Houliang, chairman of PetroChina, told reporters that the company's sales of natural gas and crude oil are largely based on its own production in China. Imports via pipelines, equity stakes in projects outside of the Middle East, and non-Middle Eastern supply secured under long-term contracts account for 90% of PetroChina’s crude processing. Dai Houliang, Chairman of PetroChina's earnings briefing, said that the company can operate its oil and natural gas supply chains with relatively high rates and stable operating costs for a long time. Dai didn't elaborate on how China's second largest refiner, after Sinopec has "scaled back" production due to disruptions in Middle Eastern crude supply. Dai stated that although PetroChina's investments have been affected, they had contingency plans in place to ensure supplies through trading activities. He didn't elaborate. PetroChina is a major investor in the Middle East, including Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman.
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Crude escalation
By Mike Dolan March 30th - Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets, explains what matters today in U.S. markets. The markets are still not convinced that an end to the Middle East conflict is imminent. Oil prices surged again on Monday, and global stock indexes started off with a rough start. Over the weekend, any hopes for a near-term deescalation of the conflict were dashed as Iran-affiliated Houthi?forces?in Yemen joined in the conflict. President Trump also suggested that U.S. soldiers 'could?take Kharg Island - Iran's main oil-export hub. Washington's signals remain mixed with Trump still praising the prospects of a peace agreement with Tehran. Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid Podcast, where I discuss crude's recent upswing, and look ahead to a major release that is due today, which could provide an early indication of how energy shocks are affecting prices. Subscribe to the podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. Brent crude was on track to reach its highest monthly increase ever as it crossed $116 a barrel on Monday, while U.S. Crude rose above $102 a barrel. Both have since dropped slightly but are still high. The benchmarks have been moving sharply higher since last Friday. Energy consumers and central banks are more concerned about the fact that the 3-month Brent futures have also risen above $100 per barrel. This indicates a growing pessimism regarding a near-term end of the war, and the risk of persistent inflation. Asian stocks fell on Monday, taking their cues from the renewed increase in crude prices. Japan's Nikkei index dropped by 2.8% in March, which is nearly 13% more than it was at the beginning of the month. South Korea's KOSPI fell by almost 3% this month, nearly 9% less. European shares were slightly higher in the early morning trading, and Wall Street futures rose before the bell. This was perhaps due to Trump's comments about apparent talks with Tehran. The dollar, meanwhile, held steady as it continued to make its largest monthly gain since July last year. The strength of the greenback helped push the yen beyond the 160-per dollar level, which is usually a redline for intervention. Atsushi Mmura, a Japanese currency official, said that "decisive actions" could be needed to stop the yen from falling. G7 Finance Ministers, Foreign Ministers and Central Bankers will meet virtually today in order to determine what can be done to mitigate the impact of this energy shock. Today, both New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking. We'll also be able to see how the initial energy shock has impacted on inflation in Europe, when the German CPI numbers for March are released. Pakistan, the country that has become a key mediator in the Middle East conflict has announced it will host "meaningful discussions" between Washington and Tehran. However, it's not clear if either side has accepted to attend. The crisis appears to be reaching a critical point, with more U.S. soldiers deploying in the region. It remains to be determined whether all the noise will lead to an escalation of violence or a de-escalation. Chart of the Day The U.S. gasoline pump prices increased by a third during the month of March, as the Iran attacks and energy shock that followed unfolded. This is one of the biggest monthly increases ever recorded. The average regular unleaded price is now just below $4 per gallon. Watch today's events * U.S. Dallas Fed Business Survey (10:30?AM EDT). Both U.S. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the New York Fed President John Williams speak * G7 energy, finance and central bankers meet virtually Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed here are the author's. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and to integrity, independence, freedom from bias, and impartiality.
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Zelenskiy claims that allies have sent'signals to Ukraine' about reducing the strikes on Russian oil
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, said that some of Ukraine's closest allies have sent "signals" to Kyiv about the possibility?of?reducing its long-range attacks on Russia's energy sector due to a rise in global oil prices. In a WhatsApp conversation with reporters, he said that Ukraine is ready to reciprocate, provided that Russia stops attacking Ukraine's energy system. He also added that Kyiv would be open to a ceasefire at Easter. Zelenskiy told journalists in a WhatsApp briefing that "recently, after such a severe?energy crisis in the world, we've received signals about how to reduce the?responses of our oil sector, and energy sector in the Russian Federation." Prices have risen due to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. The Russian attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure for energy have already made it scramble to find supplies. Zelenskiy, who just returned from a four day trip to the Middle East said that he reached an agreement with certain countries in the area to provide energy assistance to Ukraine. Zelenskiy announced at the weekend, during his Middle East tour, that he'd reached an agreement on diesel deliveries to Ukraine for a full year. He did not provide any further details. Diesel is vital for the Ukrainian military and the agricultural sector. It's the bedrock of their economy. During his trip, Ukraine signed cooperation framework deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Zelenskiy said that he raised the issue of air defence missiles in his discussions with Middle Eastern leaders. He did not indicate if an agreement was reached. He said that because of the Iran 'war,' Ukraine's international allies were currently "primarily" sending anti-ballistic systems to the Middle East, and Ukraine is sometimes forgotten. (Reporting and writing by Yuliia Dyesa; editing by Daniel Flynn).
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China's neighbors get the cold shoulder when it comes to energy.
Energy stress is spreading across Southeast Asia and governments are calling on China to fulfill its commitments for closer energy security by allowing the export of fuels and fertilisers, which were previously banned. China, however, has only made vague statements. It has not publicly acknowledged the export bans reported by others. Instead it is focusing on protecting its own economy against the war in 'Iran. Analysts do not expect this to change. They point out the tension between China’s declared ambition to become a more prominent player in regional affairs, and its realpolitik commitment to maintain its own economy ahead of global growth. China is the second-largest fertiliser exporter in the world and also a major supplier of fuel. China's export bans have cut off a major supply source for many Asian countries, including Bangladesh, Philippines, and Australia. Bangkok officials said that Dhaka had asked China earlier in the month to honor existing fuel contracts. Thai diplomats would then engage their Chinese counterparts so as to continue fertiliser shipments if necessary. Officials in?Malaysia said last week that the Chinese export ban will worsen fertiliser shortages, especially in the oil palm industry. This is the second largest in the world. It's a blow to the war in Iran. Even the Philippines has sought assistance despite disputes between the two countries over the South China Sea. The Philippines Minister of Agriculture visited the Chinese embassy in Manila on March 17 and announced that China had agreed to continue fertiliser deliveries. Beijing's readout of a single sentence said that the two countries had only discussed agriculture. On the same day, Australia, who imported a third its jet fuel last year from China, announced that it was in talks with Beijing about jet fuel exports. Eric Olander is the co-founder and director of the China Global South Project. He said that China may provide some formal assistance but it would be highly unlikely if not improbable for China to share any substantial amount of food, energy or other resources with other countries. Analysts said that Chinese policymakers likely quietly congratulated themselves for the strategic insight to start stockpiling weapons since?the early 2000s. This policy may have appeared excessive during peacetime, but it now appears surprisingly practical. In an editorial published earlier this month, People's Daily, China's Communist Party's leading newspaper, praised China's relative security of energy and claimed that the country's forward-looking nature meant it held "the energy lifeline" in China's own hands. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn't immediately answer questions. "A Tried and Tested Playbook" China's Belt and Road initiative, which is the country's signature infrastructure project, has brought world leaders to Beijing regularly to discuss a 'win-win" cooperation. But with fuel and fertiliser in short supply across the region, Southeast Asian capitals have turned their attentions towards Russia. "China will not want to create unrealistic expectations. Ruby Osman is a senior adviser at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change and says that Beijing does not want to be a "regional energy backstop for a period of disruption indefinitely". Beijing is likely to stick with its tried and tested playbook, which involves imposing broad, sharp curbs on exports of energy, energy-related products, before selectively restarting trade when officials are satisfied that the domestic demand will be met, said Ms. Liu. China's political consciousness is still deeply rooted in famine and scarcity, and the trauma of Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward (GLF) and Cultural Revolution is still fresh enough to remember. Max Zenglein is a senior economist with the Conference Board Asia. He said, "Only when China becomes more comfortable?with its exposure can I expect meaningful support." "I anticipate that any support provided will be transactional. Unfortunately, it's not a good situation to be in. Wang Jin, senior fellow at the Beijing Club for International Dialogue (a think tank within China's Foreign Ministry), said Beijing would also benefit from the shock if it pushed trading partners to "accelerate investments in green and nuclear energies, sectors that China leads following years of state-backed investing. Analysts said that China is under little pressure to act because no other major donors, such as Japan or a regional rival, are stepping up to help solve the shortages. Olander compared it to the COVID-19 Pandemic when officials in the region looked at India as Asia's primary source of vaccines only to have New Delhi halt exports after infections soared in the country. Osman says that China's partners who are seeking concessions should remind Beijing of their own commitments. "Maybe it's best to just quote this new part of the five-year-plan back to Beijing. 'Strengthening international cooperation in food and energy, data and biological security, sea passage security and counter-terrorism, among other fields'."
Fed's confidence in inflation expectations anchored by the Fed may be under pressure
Federal Reserve officials who want to maintain price control and keep inflation under control face a challenge, as expectations of consumers and the price of gasoline rise. In addition, the bond market is spooked by the rising yields of U.S. Treasury securities. Treasury securities. The U.S. Central Bankers felt confident that the public's expectations of inflation,?particularly in the long-term, were anchored and in line with the Fed's 2% target. This was a sign of their confidence and commitment to achieving their inflation aims. The Fed is closely monitoring any signs of drifting in surveys and investments, which are thought to be a reflection of future inflation expectations. With gasoline prices rising almost daily and airfares and other increases not far behind and oil prices around $110 per barrel globally, they're paying attention to the Fed. Anna Paulson, Philadelphia Fed president, said at the San Francisco Fed Conference on Friday that "long-term inflation expectations" are in line with 2% but may be more fragile after years of inflation above target and a new potential price shock.
A University of Michigan survey on Friday showed that household prices expectations have risen over the past year, despite weak U.S. Treasury sales last week. High yields were partly attributable to inflation fears.
"That's?on everybody's mind," Fed chair Jerome Powell stated during a March 18 press conference that was dominated with questions about the central bank's assessment of the economic risks posed by the war in Iran. In particular, he said that another price shock after a five year?run where it has missed its target inflation could be what causes the public lose trust. Investors have priced in any Fed rate cuts, but are betting on a 'hike' this year. Even a hint - like some central bank officials are doing - could change the market's outlook and help the central bank to prove that it is serious on inflation. Policymakers have vowed to never forget this hard-learned lesson. It is believed that in the 1970s, inflationary psychology led households and firms to bid up prices and wages in the absence a central bank commitment. This dynamic was only altered by punishing rate increases that caused a sharp recession in the early 80s. Powell stated that the lessons learned from 50 years ago would not influence his decision making. "But it's been five years." We experienced the tariff shock. We also had the pandemic. We are now experiencing an energy shock. ... You worry about inflation expectations when you see a pattern of repeated events. We are very concerned about this. "We are committed to doing whatever it takes to maintain inflation expectations at 2%.
EXPECTATIONS AT THE 'CORE' OF CENTRAL BANCKING
In the current environment, hawkish monetary policies are inevitable. However, there is no consensus on how to measure what Powell claims to be trying to achieve. Abstract concepts like "expectations", in an institution that disagrees on how to interpret basic data such as the unemployment rate, become a kind of dealer's choice exercise. Different policymakers will give weight to different financial market measures or survey results of public perceptions of inflation.
Ed Al-Hussainy is a fixed income portfolio manager and macro-manager at Columbia Threadneedle. He said that central banks' effectiveness depends on their ability to deliver on promises.
Expectations are difficult to measure and subject to interpretation.
Al-Hussainy stated that officials want to "make sure people believe they will do whatever it takes in order to keep inflation low." If you state what these expectations are, then I believe that you lose some of the strategic ambiguity. You also lose some of your discretionary policy making flexibility.
In the next few weeks, there could be a heated debate over which metrics are important. The Fed's preferred measures of expectations have been relatively close to 2%, even when inflation spiked during the COVID-19 epidemic.
Fed policymakers have taken note of some less certain signs. Investors viewed the recent weak performance of U.S. Treasury Auctions as a reflection of increased concern about U.S. Inflation.
The New York Fed's long-standing monthly survey of consumers is also seen to show "anchored" expectations. In fact, the latest report showed a slight decline in short-term results. This data is for February, but it was before the month that has seen high oil prices and volatility on stock and bond market, as well as a lack of a clear conclusion to a conflict consumers feel at the pump and will eventually feel in other areas of spending. "We've had inflation at high levels for five years, and expectations of near-term inflation have increased again. I'm particularly worried that another price shock will increase expectations of longer-term prices," Fed Governor Michael Barr stated on Thursday, at an event at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "We must be extra vigilant."
(source: Reuters)