Latest News

The Canadian oil sands became one of the lowest-cost plays in North America

The Canadian oil sands became one of the lowest-cost plays in North America

The use of giant shovels, driverless vehicles and a robot that looks like a dog have helped Canada's Oil Sands companies, including Imperial Oil and Suncor, become some North America's low-cost oil producers. This has been achieved despite the fact that U.S. Shale costs rose due to the highest inflation rates in decades. Canada's oil sands sector is in a strong position as the global oil market enters a downward spiral due to economic uncertainty caused by U.S. Tariffs and OPEC+ pumping out more barrels. International oil majors such as BP, Chevron, and Total sold their oil sands interests after the 2014-15 oil price crash. The Canadian operations were viewed as one of their most expensive and, therefore, less profitable projects around the world. They allocated their capital towards cheaper oil production and preferred U.S. shales for their quicker drilling times and higher returns.

According to industry insiders, and an analysis of recent U.S. company earnings and Canadian company earnings, since then, new technologies and cost-cutting initiatives have led to meaningful improvements in the industry's competiveness, making oil sands one of the cheapest producers. U.S. oil companies have responded to the drop in oil prices by reducing rigs and capital expenditures as well as laying off employees. However, Canadian oil sands companies, due to their position of strength, have not made any changes to production or investment plans. As part of an effort to boost the Canadian economy, some politicians have called for a new pipeline to transport crude oil from Alberta to Pacific coast.

Cenovus CEO Jon McKenzie stated in an earlier interview that the lower crude oil prices have had little impact on Canada's oil sector. He said that the industry has grown more resilient over time. Two four-legged robots, each named Spot due to their canine-like appearance, prowl Imperial’s 45-year old Cold Lake facility in Alberta. They perform routine equipment inspections and maintainence such as heat exchanger optimizing and oil/water interface monitoring. Spots allow Imperial to save CDN$30 ($22) million a year and free up workers for other tasks. Exxon's Imperial and Suncor, a competitor of Imperial, have both switched to autonomous vehicles to transport ore from oil sands. Imperial said that the switch had increased oil production productivity at its Kearl oil-sands mine in Alberta by 20% since 2023. Suncor's Fort Hills operation, north of Fort McMurray in Alberta, operates a truck weighing 900 tonnes, which is, according to the company, the largest hydraulic mining shovel in the world. Suncor CEO Rich Kruger stated that the shovel’s larger bucket and stronger digging force result in faster ore loading, and less spillage.

Oil sands companies have also improved equipment reliability and performance. Imperial, for instance, has cut costs associated with turnarounds - an industry term for costly maintenance periods that require temporary shutdown of production - by CDN$100m annually at Kearl since 2021. The company aims to increase the interval between turnarounds to 48 months. Suncor attributes efforts such as standardizing maintenance across mines, and improving site water management to get more output out of existing assets to its US$7 reduction per barrel in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), break-even price by 2024. The company now expects to achieve this at $42.90. According to Bank of Montreal, Canada's five largest oil sands firms can achieve break-even and maintain dividends at WTI prices of between $43.10-$40.85.

This means that oil sands companies have reduced their costs by about $10 per barrel over the past seven years. According to BMO, oil sands averaged $51.80/bbl from 2017 to 2019.

A recent Dallas Federal Reserve study of more than 100 oil and gas firms in Texas, New Mexico, and Louisiana found, on the other hand, that shale producers require an average WTI oil price per barrel of $65 to drill profitably. In 2017-2019 the break-even price for U.S. oil shale producers was between $50 and $52 a barrel.

High Start-up Costs but Long Lifespan

The nature of the extraction is a major reason why the oil sands sector has become so competitive. In some places, the process of extracting the oily sands in Alberta is more like mining than oil drilling.

Companies operate huge mines to remove huge quantities of sand, clay, and oil from the area where the oil is close to the surface. Steam is used to loosen deposits underground and then a drilling method is used when the oil deposit is deep. Oil sands mining has high initial costs, but can be operated for many decades at very low rates of production decline. Canadian Natural Resources had, by the year 2024, proved and probable reserves of 20.1 billion barrels equivalent oil in its portfolio. This gave its oil sands upgrading and mining assets a lifespan of 43 more years. The Horizon oil sands mining operation has been in production since 2009.

Shale oil, on the other hand, has low startup costs. The oil production from these wells begins to decrease within a few months. After years of drilling, the top shale field has been exhausted. Drillers have moved onto secondary areas and are drilling more wells in order to get the same amount of output. This has pushed up prices.

Canadian oil sands firms have also reduced their debt over the last five years. This has allowed them to redirect profits from improving balance sheets towards dividends and share buybacks.

Bank of Montreal reports that oil sands companies Canadian Natural Resources (CNR), Suncor, Cenovus Imperial Oil, MEG Energy and Cenovus have a combined net debt of C$33.9billion, excluding any lease obligations, after they paid down almost C$22billion in debts between 2021-2024.

Kevin Burkett, Portfolio Manager at Vancouver-based Burkett Asset Management, says that Canadian oil sands producers offer increasing returns for investors looking to profit from the energy sector.

Burkett, whose portfolio includes Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus, said that Canada's oil-sands are "not geopolitically dangerous" and have "some very attractive characteristics in terms of productivity and cost."

(source: Reuters)