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Gold prices rise as geopolitical risks and trade tensions bolster appeal
Gold prices rose Thursday as U.S. Sanctions against Russia and potential new export controls for China added geopolitical risk, boosting demand for safe haven assets. As of 0720 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.6% to $4,119.54 an ounce. In the previous session, gold fell to near a two-week low. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.7%, to $4134.60 an ounce. Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Nemo.money said that gold is trying to find its feet after the much-needed and healthy technical pullback. The Trump administration has considered a plan that would curb a range of software-powered products exported to China – from laptops and jet engines – as retaliation for Beijing's recent round of restrictions on rare earth exports. The U.S. president Donald Trump has imposed sanctions against Russia related to the Ukraine for the first and only time during his second term. These sanctions target oil companies Lukoil, and Rosneft. Gold prices are up 57% in the past year. They reached a record high of $4,381.21 Monday. This is due to geopolitical, economic and rate-cutting bets, as well as sustained central bank purchases. The focus now shifts to Friday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report, which was delayed by the government shutdown. This is expected to provide more information on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate reduction path. Investors have almost completely priced in a 25-basis point rate cut for the Fed meeting next week. In low-interest rate environments, non-yielding gold bullion is likely to perform well. Mark Haefele said that UBS' Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele stated in a report, "We still view gold as a portfolio diversifier. Further gains towards our upside case of 4,700/oz are possible should adverse macro- and political developments arise." Spot silver increased 1.6%, to $49.28 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.8%, to $1.651.25, and palladium fell 0.8%, to $1.447.90. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Ronojoy Mazumdar in Bengaluru.
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As rain returns, victims of the Valencia floods are feeling the mental effects
Jose Manuel Gonzalez still panics when he hears rain, even though he spent 6 hours holding on to a traffic signal as floods in Valencia, Spain, destroyed everything in their way, including his brother. Gonzalez, 58 said that he wakes up often in shock. He can't shake the memory of the night he saw his daughter holding on to her life on the awning of an Alfafar shop, in Valencia, which was one of the most affected areas. He feels responsible for the elderly mother who is devastated because his brother drowned in a torrent of rushing water while he was trying to rescue a lady from a vehicle that night. He said that even a single drop of rain was "like an alert, something that goes off, like a blinking light in my mind, as if to warn me about something." He was diagnosed with post-traumatic disorder (PTSD). Doctors prescribed tranquilizers to help him gather his thoughts and remember that he's safe in the rain. According to the United Nations, weather-related natural catastrophes are on the increase. Many of these disasters are exacerbated due to climate change. According to studies, the time taken for floods to be cleaned up can cause stress and mental issues in victims. Psychological damage and fear of the rain Health experts warn that governments must not only plan for the physical damage caused by floods, but also the psychological harm they can cause to victims. According to a study published in 2015 in the Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness Journal by Cambridge University Press, almost one fifth of people experience PTSD following flooding. According to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, some parts of Europe had their wettest ever year in 2024. Storms and flooding affected an estimated 413,000 individuals. This resulted in at least 335 deaths and at least 21 billion euros of damage. The Spanish government, in response to the Valencia floods created the Special Mental Health Emergency Unit (USME), along with local mental health services that have treated thousands of people. According to a survey of 2,275 adults conducted by the health department of the regional government, almost 28% of those affected by floods had PTSD. We have people who do not want to bathe, go to sea or even be near water. Julieta Mondo is a psychologist with USME. She added, "Trauma is a constant reminder to your brain that the rain can be dangerous." She said that the treatment involves reassuring people of their normal reaction to water and gradually exposing those who are afraid to it. She said that more women are affected by the psychological effects of floods, because they tend to be the primary caregivers at home. They struggle to balance caring for children and their own emotions when it rains. Arantxa Ferrer lived in La Torre, an area across the river from Valencia. Eleven people were killed on her street. After her apartment on the ground floor began to fill with water, she escaped through her terrace and climbed into a neighbor's flat. MEDICATION AND THERAPEUTICS TO ALLEVIATE POST-TRAUMATIC STRESS She said that she was unable to sleep immediately after the flooding. She could only hear the sounds of people screaming and water when she closed her eyes. With the help of therapy and medication to relieve her PTSD, she is now able to tolerate the sound and sight of rain. She has even ventured outside to see the river which broke its banks, causing destruction and death to her neighbours. Ferrer, 47, a marketing executive, says her doctor told her to "go to the windows, watch the rain falling, and listen to it", to overcome her fear of the sound. Juan Benet, her neighbour whose sister had died in the floods was less convinced of the benefits of therapy. He said that he was approached by an army psychologist who wanted to talk to him, but felt no connection to the therapist because he hadn't been through what he did. He pointed at his heart and head, saying, "It did nothing for me and it will never do anything for you, because it's here and there." "This won't go away." The rainy season has returned to Valencia with the end of summer. The authorities have issued several red warnings about the potential for torrential rainfall and flooding, but it didn't happen. Gonzalez, who runs a company that provides psychometric tests to drivers, says he is struggling to get back to being the fun-loving person he used to be before the floods. He said that he and his partner had stopped traveling and that he has difficulty understanding questions when they are asked. He said, "I'm ready to move on but I can't be the person I used to be without anti-anxiety medications." "Everything is frightening to me." "I can't stop it. All because of post-traumatic Stress."
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Zelenskiy praises new energy sanctions against Russia and seeks to increase pressure on Moscow
On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomed the "very important" energy sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union on Russia. However, he said that more pressure was needed to be applied on Moscow in order to achieve a ceasefire. On Wednesday, the United States announced sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies. This comes a day after the collapse of plans for a meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin. On Thursday, the EU officially adopted its 19th set of sanctions. This included a ban on Russian imports of liquefied gas. Zelenskiy told reporters in Brussels that the new sanctions were "very important" in remarks to journalists. He was there to meet EU leaders. In response to the question of a reporter, he stated that he thought a ceasefire in Ukraine was still possible but more pressure had to be put on Russia to make it happen. He refused to make territorial concessions, as Moscow began its full-scale occupation in February 2022. Zelenskiy thanked Trump in a blog post on X for the new U.S. Sanctions, praising “this resolute decision” that showed "aggression won't go unanswered". "The new U.S. sanction against Russia's giant oil companies are a clear message that prolonging war and spreading terrorism come at a price. "This is a just and deserved step," wrote he. "Sanctions are a key component of the pressure that must be applied to Russia in order to achieve peace." (Reporting and editing by Timothy Heritage, Anastasiia Melenko and Max Hunder)
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Minister: Romania and EU agree to extend the operation of coal-fired power plants
According to Romanian Energy minister Bogdan Ivan, the European Commission agreed to postpone the shutdown of five coal-fired units in Romania until 2026 or 2029. This will reduce the risk of blackouts this winter and increase electricity prices. For electricity production, the European Union uses a mixture of coal, gas, hydroelectric, nuclear, and renewable energies. Bucharest's government had pledged to phase out hard coal and lignite by 2026, as part of its European Union-funded Recovery Funds package. Five coal-fired plants generate 2.6 GW. Romania committed to closing 1,78 GW in December as part of its EU resilience funds package. Ivan, a reporter, said that coal-fired power stations will continue to operate. "Three units until the end of 2029, and two units until the end of August 2026." Ivan stated that the postponement of the project will allow Romania to replace coal-fired units with renewable and gas-powered generation. The state-owned lignite holding company CE Oltenia partnered with OMV Petrom and Tinmar to replace coal assets by building solar parks and gas-fired plants. However, the projects are expected to be completed much later than originally planned. Private developer MAS Group Holding has built a 1.7 GW gas and steam power plant in central Romania to replace the outdated hard coal generation. Ivan stated that Romania would have had to pay 1.8 billion Euros ($2.1 billion) if Brussels refused to accept the postponement. (1 euro = 0.8575 dollars) (Reporting and editing by Luiza Ili;
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Antofagasta's copper production is lower than expected
Antofagasta, a Chilean copper miner, reported a modest rise of 1% in the third quarter of production. It also said that it expected annual output to be at the lower range of its forecast of 660,000-700,000. Antofagasta has produced 161,800 tonnes of copper during the third quarter. This brings the year-to date production to 476 600 tons, which is a 2,8% increase over the same period in 2020. The company has four copper mines located in Chile. It is increasing production to meet the growing demand of the construction, power and green energy sectors. Due to the depreciation in the Chilean peso, the company has lowered its guidance on capital expenditures for the year from $3.9 billion to $3.6 billion. Citi analysts stated that "the capex guidance for 2020 is revised... and we see it as deferred spending for 2026." Antofagasta expects copper production in 2026 to range between 650,000-700,000 tonnes, with a higher output at Los Pelambres. Citi stated that "a low guidance (for 2026) at one of the most well-run mining operations will likely be another example (of) supply constraints for (the global) copper market." Copper prices reached $11,000 per ton in October, just a few cents away from their record high of $11,104.50 per ton set in May 2024.
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Angola to begin production of its first major copper mine next week
Angola’s first major copper mining project, Tetelo will begin production on October 29. This is part of Angola’s effort to diversify its economy into minerals that are clean and renewable. Shining Star Icarus is the owner of this $250 million mine, which is a partnership between China’s Shining Star International Group with Angola’s Sociedade Mineireira de Cobre de Angola. It is expected to produce 25, 000 metric tons per year of copper concentrate in its first two years. "I'm honored to announce the Tetelo Mine, which will be inaugurated in a few short days," Mines minister Diamantino azevedo said at a Luanda capital conference. He said, "This will be the beginning of production in the first underground mine that produces this important metal." Copper is essential for the transition to renewable energy, along with battery metals such as cobalt, nickel or lithium. Shining Star Icarus' deputy managing director Rui Lópes said that the first phase of the project will be a pit operation followed by underground mining in the second half 2026. Lopes said that the mine has an agreement with commodity trader Glencore. Ivanhoe Mines, Anglo American and other companies have copper exploration projects also in Angola.
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Gold prices rise on geopolitical concerns; US inflation data is being watched
Gold prices rose Thursday, as U.S. sanction against Russia and potential new export controls to China increased geopolitical risk. Investors also awaited key U.S. data on inflation later this week to get more clues about the path of interest rates. As of 0627 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.7% to $4,123.39 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.8%, to $4138.10 an ounce. The Trump administration is mulling over a plan that would curb an array of software-powered products exported to China ranging from laptops and jet engines to respond to Beijing's recent round of restrictions on rare earth exports. Trump also imposed sanctions against Russia related to the Ukraine for the first in his second term. These targeted oil companies Lukoil, and Rosneft. GoldSilver Central MD Brian Lan stated that "at this time, we are still bullish in the long term on gold but short-term investors must be careful because volatility is high." This week, the U.S. Consumer Price Index report (CPI), due on Friday following a delay caused by the government shutdown, will likely show that core inflation remained at 3.1% during September. Investors are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. When interest rates are low, gold tends to increase in value as the cost of non-yielding metals is reduced. Mark Haefele said that UBS' Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele stated in a report, "We still view gold as a portfolio diversifier. Further gains towards our upside case of 4,700/oz are possible should adverse macro- and political developments arise." Gold prices are up 57% in the past year. They reached a record high of $4,381.21 Monday. This is due to geopolitical, economic and rate-cutting bets, as well as sustained central bank purchases. Silver spot rose by 1.2%, to $49.10 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.1%, to $1603,70, and palladium dropped 0.9%, to $1445.43. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Ronojoy Mazumdar and Brijesh patel in Bengaluru)
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Andy Home: Zinc ROI-LME turns wild when bears sleep-walk and squeeze into the squeeze:
London Metal Exchange's zinc contract is on a wild ride this week, with time-spreads reaching record levels in the face of depleted stock. Since several months the zinc market has been sleeping-walking to this storm, believing that the falling LME inventories were not a true representation of a growing market surplus. Metal has been leaking out of LME's warehouses. There are only 35,300 tons left, which is barely enough for a day's global consumption. The arrivals have been very low despite the increasing premium for cash deliveries. It's a painful squeeze for the bears who misjudged zinc's changing dynamics. SINGAPORE SLING Last year, there were 300.000 tons of zinc in LME storage warehouses. Most of them were in Singapore where the warehouse operators were in a fierce competition to earn storage revenues. Over the course of 2024, there was an enormous amount of metal movement as warehouse incentives were pushed and pulled. These deals often took the form of rental-sharing agreements with trade houses. Last year, almost 700,000 tonnes of zinc were moved into and out of Singapore's warehouses, but the inventory change was only a modest 35,550 tons. Nevertheless, something changed at the beginning of this year. Zinc left LME registered stock but did not appear in the shadows of off-warrant ready for renewal warranting at another warehouse. Singapore's trade statistics show that refined zinc exports are increasing to destinations such as Djibouti, in east Africa, and Guatemala, in central America. It's safe to assume that the LME stock has been sold around the globe, since the city has no zinc refineries or smelters. Smelters Power Down How is it that the rest of world is in short supply of a metal which is supposed to have a surplus of supply? The latest bi-annual statistical update of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group provides clues. Western smelters are closing or reducing production as the zinc demand is stagnant and mine supplies are booming after two years in contraction. ILZSG predicts that global metal production will rise by 2.7% in this year, but the main contributor to this increase is China. Its refined zinc production is expected to grow by 6.2%. It is clear that production outside China has fallen as smelters have reduced run rates, or in the case Toho Zinc’s Annaka smelter, located in Japan, and Glencore’s secondary zinc operations, located in Italy, completely closed. This year, the projected surplus supply is only 85,000 tons. It's all from China. SURPLUS TOMORROW - PAIN TODAY It's not surprising that London has a higher zinc price than the Shanghai Futures Exchange, given the regional disparity in supply. The most obvious solution to the disconnect between the Chinese market and the rest of the world is by importing Chinese products into LME warehouses. Unfortunately, physical arbitrage is a slow process and LME short positions holders need metal now. Why is there a cash premium on three-month metal? The price of steel has increased to more than $300 per ton. This is the most tight market since the LME Special High Grade Contract was launched in the late 1980s. The six dominant longs have cumulative cash positions of over three times the available stock. In the "tom next" spread, it is easy to see that there are tensions between short position holders. This week, the cost of rolling over a short position was as high as 30 dollars per ton. Stocks will continue to suffer until they are rebuilt in a meaningful manner. Surplus is on its way. ILZSG predicts a massive excess production of 271,000 tonnes in 2026. It's just not there. Or at least not where the holders of LME short positions need it. Andy Home is an author and columnist. Andy Home is a columnist.
Ecuador: upfront payment required for Sacha Oil Deal

The deadline for the Chinese-Canadian group to pay an upfront payment of $1.5 billion to Ecuador to develop the most productive oil block in the country has passed, said the energy minister on Wednesday. This appears to have scuttled the deal.
The consortium, which is made up of subsidiaries from the Chinese state energy giant Sinopec, and Canada's New Stratus Energy had until Tuesday evening to pay the money and the deal wouldn't go through without it.
The Energy Ministry has awarded the
Contract for 20 years
The northeastern Sacha Field, which produced 77,000 barrels of oil per day last year, was awarded without any public bidding.
The awarding of this contract has been criticized by unions, indigenous organizations, and opposition politicians. They have questioned whether Amodaimi Oil Company S.L. (the Sinopec subsidiary) and Petrolia Ecuador (the New Stratus affiliate) have the technical and operating capacity to operate the Block.
Ines Manzano, the energy minister, told Ecuavisa local television on Wednesday that there was nothing more to say than that the deadline had expired.
If this contract does not proceed, the president has stated that he will consider other options. The government said that it did not have the money or technology to increase production in Sacha.
Petrolia is the only member of this consortium to have publicly commented on the deal. However, it did not respond immediately to a comment request.
The contract included a $1.7 billion investment plan and a plan for increasing production from the field by 100,000 barrels per d ay within the first three year.
Authorities had stated that, despite clauses which determined production distribution on the basis of the price of crude oil and the levels of extraction, the government's take, including upfront payment, taxes, and charges for transportation, would be about 82%. Reporting by Alexandra Valencia, Writing by Julia Symmes Cobb
(source: Reuters)