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Morgan Stanley expects Brent to reach $90/bbl by summertime 2024

Morgan Stanley raised its Brent oil price projections by $10 per barrel to $90 for the thirdquarter of 2024, mentioning tighter supply and demand balances on OPEC+. dedication and Russia's oil production curtailments after recent. drone attacks on its refineries.

Morgan Stanley lowered its supply projection for OPEC and. Russia by 0.2-0.3 million barrel per day (bpd) for 2Q/3Q as it. sees a modest deficit in 2nd quarter, increasing to a larger. deficit in the 3rd quarter.

The bank likewise treked its first-quarter Brent price outlook to. $ 85 per barrel from $82.5, second-quarter projection to $87.5 from. $ 82.5 and for the fourth quarter it sees prices at $85 versus. $ 80 previously.

Oil benchmark Brent hovered just under the $86 a barrel mark. on Monday. Rates have been supported as Ukraine has actually stepped up. attacks on Russian oil infrastructure because the start of the. year, hitting numerous large oil refineries in an effort to. cripple Russia's military.

These attacks most likely indicate that some oil production may. still need to be minimized. As a result of this, integrated with the. OPEC+ commitment, we have actually minimized our oil production projection. for Russia for 2Q and 3Q by ~ 0.2 million bpd also.

Morgan Stanley is also of the view that instead of a. geopolitical risk premium, there is actually still a little. discount in the Brent rate for the threat that OPEC cohesion. degrades.

Each month that OPEC discipline remains in-place, Brent. flat cost will likely continue to overtake where. inventories and time spreads currently are.

OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier this. month agreed to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million. bpd into the second quarter.

Morgan Stanley still expects oil demand to grow at 1.5. million bpd this year, a little above historical trend growth,. driven by jet fuel and petchem, and regionally by China and. India.

(source: Reuters)