Latest News

USDA reduces U.S. winter grain harvest forecast after Plains drought

The?U.S. The?Department of Agriculture cut its U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Outlook by 2% compared to a month ago as a severe drought in the Plains lowered its hard red wheat production outlook to its lowest level since 1957. The USDA reported that the U.S. Winter Wheat Production for 2026/27 was estimated to be 1.030 billion Bushels. This is down from the forecast of 1.048 million bushels last month, and below last year's crop of 1.402 bn bushels.

The production of hard red winter wheat, the most important variety in the United States was expected to drop to 497 millions bushels. This is down from an estimate of?515million last month, and below the 804 million-bushel harvest last year. U.S. producers are already under pressure from rising fuel and fertilizer costs due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, as well as trade disruptions caused U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff wars.

In key wheat states such as Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, the harvest is in full swing. However, some farmers in far western parts of the wheat belt have little or no grain. In a report of crop conditions released on Monday, USDA said that only 25% of U.S. winter grain crop was in good to excellent condition. This is the lowest rating for this time in USDA records going back to 1986. The USDA predicted?U.S. The USDA forecasted that wheat supplies would be 744 million bushels at the end 2026/27 seasons, down from 762 million bushels in May. On average, the analysts polled by expected that end-year supplies would be slightly higher. Grain traders accepted USDA's crop adjustment on Thursday, as it was within analyst expectations. Chicago Board of Trade benchmark hard red winter?wheat futures were up 0.6% at midday while soft red winter?wheat?futures fell 0.3%. On Thursday, the USDA did not make any significant changes to its estimates for U.S. soybeans and corn. U.S. ending corn stocks for 2025/26 were increased by 3 million bushels. 2025/26 soybean ending stocks remained unchanged at 340?million bushels. USDA raised their 2025/26 Argentine and?soybean crop estimates by each 2 million metric tonnes from last month. It also increased its Brazilian corn harvest outlook by 3 millions tons. The CBOT corn futures and soybeans declined on Thursday. Both markets were hovering at recent multi-month highs.

(source: Reuters)