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After winter storm, US supply concerns persist and oil prices are rising
The oil prices rose on Wednesday, as supply concerns remained after a winter storm that disrupted U.S. crude exports and production. Middle?East tensions also contributed to the increase. Brent crude futures increased 11 cents or 0.2% to $67.68 per barrel at 0725 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 19 cents or 0.3% to $62.58 per barrel. Both benchmarks rose by about 3% Tuesday. Analysts and traders estimated that the storm had caused the U.S. to lose up to 2,000,000 barrels of oil per day, or 15% of the nation's output, over the weekend. Ship tracking service Vortexa reported that Crude and Liquefied Natural Gas exports from U.S. Gulf Coast port ports fell to zero on Sunday. Toshitaka Takawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities said that the rally is also due to a loss of production in Kazakhstan. Tazawa stated that "sales pressure will likely return once the supply concerns ease." He said that a global crude oil supply surplus projected for this year amid geopolitical risk, such as the Middle East tensions could keep WTI around $60 per barrel?for now. Two sources with knowledge of the situation said that Tengiz's largest oilfield in Kazakhstan is expected to?restore less than half its normal production on February 7, as it slowly recovers after a fire and a power outage. This was a counter-argument to comments made by CPC, the pipeline operator that handles around 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. CPC claimed it had restored full loading capacity at their Black Sea terminal following maintenance on one of three moorings. SUPPLY FEARS? REMAIN AMID MIDERAST TENSIONS Two U.S. officials who refused to be named said on Monday that a U.S. aircraft carriers and accompanying warships had arrived in the Middle East. This added to President Donald Trump's ability to defend U.S. troops or take possible military action against Iran. This has increased the likelihood that Trump will 'follow through' on his threat to strike Iran’s senior leadership as a response to the violent crackdown of nationwide protests. ANZ analysts said in a report. At a meeting held on 1 February, three OPEC+ delegates stated that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is'set' to maintain its pause in oil production increases for the month of March. A poll conducted on Tuesday showed that U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles are expected to have increased in the week ending January 23. However, distillate stocks will likely be down. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to confirm that U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks all fell last week while the latter rose. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, Tokyo; Emily Chow, Singapore; Editing and Neil Fullick.)
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Steelmaker SSAB exceeds earnings forecast aided to improved Americas business
SSAB, a Swedish steelmaker, reported a 'bigger than anticipated rise in its operating 'profit 'in its fourth quarter on Wednesday. This was aided by an improved performance from its Americas division. Operating earnings increased to 756 billion Swedish Crowns ($86 billion), from 487 millions crowns during the same quarter in 2024. A poll by SSAB revealed that analysts expected a median of?606.1million crowns. The company produces high-strength, specialized steels for cars, construction equipment and agricultural machinery, and has production facilities both on the Atlantic and in Europe. In the earnings report, CEO Johnny Sjostrom stated that "there have been few direct effects" of the US steel tariffs because SSAB has a premium strategy, and significant local production in the US. The first trade measures of Donald Trump were aimed at steel and aluminum. Since June, these imports from the majority of countries have been subjected to a 50% increase in?duties. SSAB delivered 1.5 million tonnes in the last quarter of 2014 and stated that it expected shipments to be higher in the first three months of 2015 due to a better season. The company also said it expects the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment mechanism, which tightens the rules on high emission imports like?steel, and cracksdown on attempts to avoid the levy to improve supply-demand balance in the European Market. The proposed dividend was 2 crowns, or 23% less than the 2,60 crowns that it paid last year.
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Demand for iron ore falls as construction stops weigh down on demand
The price of iron ore continued to fall on Wednesday as the Chinese Lunar New Year dragged down the demand for steel, and feedstocks. The most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the daytime trading 0.7% lower, at 783 Yuan ($112.74) per metric ton. As of?0705, the benchmark March iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down 0.79% at $103 per ton. According to Chinese?broker Everbright Futures, the downstream steel demand has shrunk with the cessation in construction projects as we approach the Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday. The company Vale announced on Tuesday that its iron ore production would reach 336.1 million tonnes in 2025. This is the first time that Vale has surpassed the Pilbara operations of Rio Tinto in Australia. According to a late-Monday filing, the company had halted its operations after water overflowed on the sites. The units are estimated by analysts to account for 2% of the iron ore production forecast for this year. Iron ore exports from Brazil are expected to increase, putting downward pressure on the price of Chinese iron?ore. Brazilian shipments will experience a seasonal drop as the country enters its rainy season. According to a Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) note, however, the high port inventories will offset any potential gains from reduced shipments. Coking coal was up by 0.44%, while coke fell by 0.12%. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mostly lower. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.39%, rebar 0.32% and stainless steel 1.5%. Wire rod, meanwhile, gained 0.17%. $1 = 6.9450 Yuan (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Janane Venkatraman).
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Draft document: EU and Vietnam agree to increase work on minerals, chips, and "trusted" (5G), draft document says
According to a draft of a joint statement that will be adopted by the two sides on Thursday, they want to increase trade and investments in critical minerals, semiconductors, and infrastructure. The document is eight pages long and subject to changes. It states that the EU will explore a possible transfer of defence tech to Hanoi as both sides strive for closer cooperation in "trusted" networks, at a moment when Chinese companies are winning contracts to develop 5G technology in Vietnam. The statement will be signed by the European Council's President Antonio Costa when he meets Vietnam's leaders on Thursday in Hanoi, just days after To Lam was reappointed as Vietnam's top leader by the ruling Communist Party. Both countries will raise their diplomatic relations to the highest level in Vietnam, comparable to that of the United States, China, and Russia. In 2020, an EU-Vietnam?free trade agreement came into effect. The document is not legally binding but it has political significance and contains indirect criticisms of the United States', China's and Russia's international strategies. The European Council refused to comment on this draft document, and the Vietnamese government didn't respond to an inquiry for comments. CRITICAL MINERALS and SEMICONDUCTORS Vietnam is home to significant, but mostly untapped, reserves of rare earths and gallium. Hanoi has expressed interest in developing the processing capacity of rare earths. The global supply and refinement is dominated by China. The progress of Vietnam has been slow, partly because it lacks the necessary technology to fully exploit its natural resources. Document: The EU and Vietnam are looking to increase their cooperation in this sector by promoting "trade and investments in goods, technologies, and services that support sustainable mining, processing, and production" of critical minerals. Vietnam is a leading supplier of tungsten (a hard metal that's used in electronics and defence), and Western diplomats warned against the possibility of Chinese involvement in a large mine in Vietnam. China's Foreign Ministry did not reply to a comment request. The draft statement also identifies supply chains as a priority area to deepen cooperation. Vietnam is a key player in the chip packaging, testing, and assembly industry, and hosts operations from Intel, Amkor Technology, and others. Vietnam started building its first semiconductor manufacturing facility earlier this month. The Vietnamese government announced earlier this month that ASML, a Dutch company and global leader in chipmaking machines has moved some of its production to Vietnam. It is also exploring ways to expand its supply chain there and provide potential customers with goods, according the Vietnamese government. This was after a meeting at a high level held in Hanoi. ASML did not respond to a request for comment. 5G, DEFENCE, INFRASTURCTURE The document cites 5G connectivity and expanding cooperation on "trusted communication infrastructure" as priorities. The 5G network in Vietnam is being developed by European companies Ericsson, Nokia, and Nokia. Last year, Hanoi awarded smaller contracts to Chinese firms, including Huawei. The document stated that both sides will increase security cooperation while the EU would consider transferring "non sensitive technology and know-how". According to the document, EU nations are interested in investing in Vietnamese railways and infrastructure. Vietnam is building its largest project to date, a nationwide high-speed rail network. U.S.A., CHINA and RUSSIA In an opinion piece published on Wednesday by Vietnam's official news agency, EU President Costa warned against "coercive trading practices" and "challenges of sovereignty and international laws". The draft statement reaffirmed its support for an "international order based on rules" and for the strengthening of the World Trade Organization at a moment when the U.S. is imposing tariffs and undermining multilateral organizations. Vietnam called for respect of "territorial integrity" and a "just peace in Ukraine", a country that is being attacked by Russia, which has been a close partner for many years. The report said that the two countries had agreed to explore a deeper level of maritime security co-operation, in order to achieve stability in the South China Sea where China's claims and Vietnam's conflict. (Reporting and editing by Francesco Guarascio)
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SpaceX's June 2026 IPO is valued at $1.5 trillion, according to FT
The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Elon Musk is considering a mid-June IPO, with a goal of raising as much as $50 Billion at a valuation around $1.5 Trillion. Could not verify the report immediately. SpaceX has not responded to our request for comment. The rocket and satellite company is now the biggest deal in history, after Saudi Aramco, which raised $29 billion in its IPO in 2019. The IPO valued Aramco at $1.7 trillion, making it the only completed 'deal' to achieve a valuation exceeding $1 trillion. The newspaper reported that SpaceX's Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnson has been in contact with private investors to discuss a possible IPO for mid-2026. Musk has always expressed his preference to keep SpaceX private. However, those familiar with Musk's thinking have indicated that the growing value of the company and its Starlink satellite internet service have led him to change strategy. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX has lined up four Wall Street banks to play leading roles in the company's market debut. The report cited a source. The global financial markets are preparing for a potential year of mega U.S. listing, led by SpaceX. Artificial intelligence firms Anthropic, and OpenAI have also begun laying the groundwork for possible IPOs. After three years of low activity on the U.S. equity market, a resurgence began in 2025 partly due to the ongoing volatility and geopolitical tensions. Analysts have stated that space technology is a highly regulated sector, but investors are interested in it because of its rapid growth prospects. (Reporting by Ananya Palyekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema and Harikrishnan Nair)
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Sources say that India is considering tightening mining auction rules in order to discourage laggards.
Two sources familiar with the issue said that India was considering tightening the rules for mining auctions to eliminate developers who delay obtaining clearances?to mine the blocks they won at auctions. The country is aiming to speed up its minerals production. According to official data, since 2015, the government auctioned off 594 mineral blocks. Of these, less than 14%, or 82 blocks, were operational. Sources said that India, as part of its internal assessment, has identified 50 companies who have not started mining, and in some cases, have not sought approval to do so, on the blocks they were awarded over the past five years. They may be blacklisted from participating in future auctions. The two sources refused to identify themselves as they weren't authorised to speak to media. The Federal Ministry of Mines?did not respond to an email seeking comment. One source said that India will assess the financials and past experience of a mining company before allowing them to bid. We will tighten the criteria for selection so that only well-known companies are allowed to participate. The source said that the matter is still at the discussion stage. She added that any finalised changes could take several months. The Mines Ministry announced publicly in October that?penalties would be imposed on those miners who delayed obtaining clearances for the operationalisation of blocks purchased at auctions. The government expressed concern about the slow development of iron ore greenfield mines last year. India is lagging behind major economies like Australia when it comes to mining's contribution to the gross domestic product. It hovers around 2%. A joint report by the government and industry released last year stated that "this is due to?a combination of factors such as regulatory and environment challenges in obtaining clearances and approvals, inadequate infrastructure and investment, and technological constraints." (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Reporting by NehaArora)
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Andy Home: The Zinc Market continues to defy expectations
Zinc did not perform according to script in 2018 and the galvanising material continues to surprise 2026. The London Metal Exchange (LME) is trading at its highest levels in three years this week. A market that was expected to move to an oversupply by 2025, was instead rocked?by a fierce squeeze in October. The global mine production is growing at a rapid pace, but it is taking longer than expected to get the metals refined in the supply chain. This is because the excess is all stuck in China. LME zinc inventories have increased from the depleted levels of October thanks to an influx of Chinese exports. The inventory rebuilding has slowed in recent weeks. This suggests that the Western market requires more consistent Chinese supply. Mine Supply on Track Zinc's bear story is based on increasing mine production, and things are going according to plan. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global mine production grew by 6.5% in the first ten months of 2025. Boliden’s Tara mine, located in Ireland, has reopened after being closed in mid-2023 because of low prices. Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi operation is also ramping up in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Russian mine Ozernoye has also begun full production following a year-long delay due to a combination between a fire in November 2023 and a shortage of spare parts because of Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine. China's dramatic increase in raw material imports is a clear indication of the impact. The volume of zinc concentrates imported into China increased by 30% on an annual basis, reaching a record 5.33 million metric tonnes in 2025. According to ILZSG, the turnaround in the market for zinc concentrates allowed?China's production of refined zinc to increase by 8.4% in first 10 months 2025. CHINA TRADE SHIFTS The global refined?zinc output, however, increased by only 2.9% over the same period, because smelter production outside of China decreased by 2.2% compared to 2024. The closure of Toho Zinc Annaka and the temporary suspension at the Seokpo Smelter in South Korea have contributed to the lower metal production in Brazil, Kazakhstan and South Korea. The Western markets are now dependent on Chinese exports in order to fill the gaps in their supply chain. China's refined zinc trade began to shift in the fourth quarter last year when it became a net importer for the country for the first since 2022. Exports rose to 42,800 tonnes in November, the largest monthly total in nearly 20 years. Chinese smelters sent metal to LME storage facilities in Hong Kong Singapore and Taiwan in order to benefit from the historic increase in the cash premium, which reached over $300 per tonne. Exports fell to 27,000 tonnes in December as the LME tightness subsided. REBUILD OF PARTIAL STOCKS China's late year export surge helped LME warehouse stock recover from less than 50,000 tons in November to 131,000 tonnes at the end December. The upward trend has slowed down since then. Exchange inventory, both registered and non-warranted, is currently at 138,000 tonnes. The amount of metals that are earmarked to be physically loaded out, as indicated by the number of cancelled warrants, has steadily increased to 12,100 tonnes, or almost 11%, of the registered tonnage. This suggests that the Western market is still short of zinc, and requires more Chinese supply in order to meet the demand. On paper, the global zinc supply is growing. However, with the excess metal in China it will require higher LME prices in order to get it out. Last year, the disconnect between east and west in zinc caught bears off guard. The LME's three-month zinc is trading at over $3,300 per tonne for the first since January 2023. Bears may have to wait before the market conforms to their expectations. Andy Home is an author and columnist. These opinions are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Trump's comments on the dollar
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Donald Trump can sometimes influence the markets. The currency market is?lit up by a wave?of dollar selling after a long, grinding decline in foreign exchange volatility. Trump's 'nonchalant' comment to a reporter about the dollar "doing well" triggered a sell-off that pushed the euro above $1.20, the first time it had done so in over 4-1/2 years. The Swiss franc also reached a record high. The risk of exposure to the?dollar in the Trump era has become more evident. The dollar index dropped more than 9% last year due to geopolitics, Trump’s policies, Washington’s desire for a lower exchange rate, and concerns over Fed independence. Investors are looking to hedge their positions, especially with the recent jitters about President Obama's unsettling Greenland diplomatic efforts and hints that the U.S. may be willing to sell dollars in order to boost Japan's yen. Imagine, as TD Securities analyst Prashant 'Newnaha said -- holding Treasuries for 4% but losing 10% of the dollar as a non-resident. Last week, it was reported that Australia's second largest pension fund, Australian Retirement Trust is reducing its dollar exposure by hedging while holding on to their U.S. investments. This view helps to explain why stocks have continued to rise despite FX swings. The dollar's decline has helped lift the Australian dollar by over 70 cents. The Australian dollar is getting a boost from rates. After data showed higher-than-expected inflation in December on Wednesday, the markets have put the chances of a rate increase next week at more than 70%. All four of Australia's "Big Four banks" now predict a rate increase. The central banks of the U.S., Canada and the world are expected to keep rates at the same level on Wednesday. After the close of U.S. stock markets, Meta and Tesla will report their earnings. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. - U.S. Federal Reserve meeting Bank of Canada Meeting - Earnings after-market at Meta and Tesla
Heatwave in Australia records record-breaking heatwave that fuels bushfires and cuts power to thousands
The record-breaking heatwave that swept Australia's south-east for the fifth straight day Wednesday sparked bushfires, strained the power grid and left thousands of properties without electricity.
Authorities said that the heatwave in Victoria is expected to continue until the weekend. It is the worst since 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, which killed 173 people.
Tim Wiebusch, Victorian Emergency Management Commissioner said: "We have now entered day five of a severe and intense heatwave in Victoria. We are beginning to see some of these impacts."
"An extreme heat warning still exists, and we expect to see eight days of extreme heat."
David Crock of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said that climate change was driving the heat and described the temperatures as "very unusual".
Crock stated that the severity of the heatwave this year is comparable to January 2009 and the heatwave from January 1939.
The data show a long-term rise in heatwave intensity and frequency, especially since the year 2000. This is due to climate change.
Crock reported that a number of records were broken for temperatures in Victoria on February 2. He said that about 20 stations in western Victoria had either broken all-time or January records.
The highest temperature recorded in the state was 48.9 degrees Celsius.
Conditions in Victoria were slightly better on Wednesday. Meanwhile, temperatures in the upper western part of New South Wales state and the south-western region of Queensland state reached 48 C (118 F).
In Victoria, around 11,000 homes were without power. This is down from 105,000 the day before. Six major fires were also being fought by firefighters, three of which were out-of-control.
The fire at Carlisle River, in the Otways Region, has destroyed more than 11,000 acres (27 181 acres).
Chris Hardman said that the fire at Carlisle River was far from being out.
We are still in the early summer. "We'll see the heat and wind coming back before this fire is completely contained."
Many communities are still struggling to recover from the large bushfires that started the month. These fires were also caused by a severe heatwave. Over 400 homes and 400,000 acres of land have already been destroyed.
(source: Reuters)