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Morgan Stanley: Venezuelan bond outlook is boosted by US Oil Deal Signal

Morgan Stanley's report on Tuesday stated that the U.S.-Venezuela Oil Agreement strengthens the outlook of?Venezuela?s sovereign debt restructuring, and encourages higher oil production, though key details are still unclear.

Last week, the U.S. announced an agreement with?Venezuela under which North American Blue Energy Partners would be granted a concession for 100 years covering 17 oilfields estimated to have 65 billion barrels in reserves.

The U.S. government will receive a 35% stake in the parent company, as well as the right to buy 20% of the future output at cost, and the first refusal on the remaining 80%.

Morgan Stanley has maintained that it is assuming a production of?about 1,5 million barrels per a day by 2027. This level, according to Morgan Stanley, would allow for a successful restructuring of the massive amount of defaulted government debt.

Since the U.S. deal was announced last week, Venezuelan sovereign bonds and those of PDVSA (the state oil company) have gained about 3.5%. This reflects a more positive economic outlook in advance of any restructuring talks.

Morgan Stanley analysts say the importance of the oil deal lies less in its specifics and more in the commitment it signals to Venezuela and other countries in the Western Hemisphere.

The report stated that "the announcements are positive for sovereign bonds, even though more details are needed. Especially on the fiscal impact."

If the plan is implemented, the $100 billion investment in Venezuela's oil infrastructure would be a significant boost to production. However, the report cautioned there were many details about the plan that are still missing.

The deal also represents a dramatic expansion of the U.S.'s role in the?Venezuela oil industry. The country has the largest oil reserves in the world, but only produces about 1.25million barrels per day. This is far below their potential, after years of mismanagement, underinvestment and sanctions.

(source: Reuters)