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As energy prices rise, inflation fears are stoked.
Global bond yields reached new highs as renewed fighting in the Middle East pushed oil prices to $90 per barrel, and pressured stock markets around the globe. Japan's benchmark 10-year rate hit 3% for a first time in decades. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield, which is used as a benchmark to price all asset classes, reached its highest level since early 2025, at 4.78%. Futures for French and German bonds extended the selling that had previously driven yields up to 15-year levels. Ryutaro kimura, senior strategist at BNP asset management in Tokyo, said: "I think that there is a sense of resignation - tinged by helplessness - about rising interest rates." The march upward of Japanese borrowing costs has been a reliable anchor for world markets, and it's only going to get worse. As the Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has reset expectations, higher oil prices and increasing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are fueling inflation fears, which is bad for bonds. Investors are also beginning to demand higher lending premiums due to the skyrocketing debt of sovereign governments. U.S. equity futures and European equity futures fell after Wall Street's modest Monday declines. The mood was nervous as the U.S. employment data due on Friday could lead to a rate hike cycle beginning?as early as this month. Wee Khoon Chong is a macro strategist for BNY in APAC. The upward pressure on long-end global yields and term premiums is maintained by hawkish monetary policies, geopolitical risks and inflation, as well as rising fiscal concerns. SHEIN FADES, BRENT TOPS $91, The Hang Seng dropped 1% and Japan's Nikkei fell to zero by mid-afternoon, with Shein Global's lacklustre debut setting the tone. Brent crude futures, however, reached $91 per barrel in Asia, while Europe's benchmark gasoline price closed Monday at its highest level in more than three-and-a half years. The Middle East conflict has made the outlook for energy and inflation precarious. Traders are bracing themselves for a short-term rise in rates. U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran again after the first?of fire? in a month, while increased fighting between Russia and Ukraine is pushing wheat prices close to three-year-highs. The markets are pricing in an interest rate increase in New Zealand next Wednesday, and in Europe the following week. The odds of a rate hike in Japan and the U.S. this month are better than even. The U.S. Dollar has only received limited support from the global?rise in borrowing rates. The dollar was unchanged at 159.76 yens to the euro. In Europe, preliminary inflation figures will be released later on Tuesday. Hong Kong Shein shares fell 8% under a price that was already reduced from previous fundraising rounds. Tariff and duty changes have hit the fast-fashion retailer known for its $5 tops, and $10 dresses in Europe and the U.S., eroding a key component of its low-cost model.
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The dog days of the past are over.
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Europe is entering autumn with benchmark gas prices at a 3-1/2 year high and stocks at their lowest level ever. Records dating back to 2011 show that this was the case. Winter is a gamble, because the scramble for?gas has exacerbated a "backwardation" where prices near term are higher than those of winter. It makes no sense to stockpile gas at this time, and Europe will have to wait until the summer heat wave is over before they can hope for a cold winter. The bond markets have returned from their summer lull, 'decidedly apathetic.' Bund futures are trading at 15-years lows in Asia. OAT futures are at the lowest level since 2012. French and German yields reached their highest levels in 15 years on Monday, as fiscal pressures increased in both countries. The European inflation data that will be released later in the day is likely to confirm market expectations of a rate hike next Monday. After the first exchange of fire in a whole month, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to strike Iran again. The yields rose throughout the Asia session, with the 10-year Treasury yields reaching a 20-month peak in Tokyo and Japan's benchmark 10-year bond touching 3% for first time since 1996. Seoul, Tokyo and Sydney all saw their stocks fall, as shares of fashion giant Shein Global, which had already been discounted due to growth and regulatory issues, fell by 8% on the first trading day. Investors have pointed out that the increase in global bond yields is largely due to real yields, or better growth expectations. There's also an alarming rise in the term premiums. According to a measure published by the New York Fed, the 10-year Treasury Term Premium had more than tripled from 26 basis points around January 2025 up to 80 bps or more in June. Since the end June, nominal 10-year Treasury yields are up about?36 basis point against an increase of 9 bps in breakeven inflation expectations. This suggests a mixture of increases in real yield and term premium. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: Economics: Euro zone CPI, US JOLTS, ISM Manufacturing Earnings: Dell, Palo Alto Networks
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Zinc reaches a four-year high amid supply concerns
London zinc prices rose on Tuesday to their highest level in more than four years, mainly due to supply concerns and limited availability of zinc outside China. As of 0300 GMT, the benchmark three-month zinc contract on the London Metal Exchange was up 2.34% to $3,974 per metric ton. The contract reached its highest level since May 2022 earlier. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded zinc contract was up 2.94% to 27,130 yuan (US$4,036.90). The price of zinc reached a high of 27,165 yuan per ton earlier, the highest level since January 2026. Zinc prices have been boosted by falling refined zinc stocks outside China and tighter raw material supply. This has helped the metal to post its best month in August since January on the LME and SHFE. The shortage of metal outside of?China is driving it out and into?warehouses overseas, which has pushed prices up and reduced inventories in these markets. Analysts from Chinese broker Jinrui Futures wrote in a report that domestic (Chinese ) inventories had seen a sharp decline on Monday. Spot purchases were concentrated in deliverable brand names. A shortage of zinc concentrate, the raw material used to make refiners' products, has prompted some refiners to accelerate their maintenance schedules. Analysts at Jinrui said that despite the fact that domestic smelters have been adding maintenance to their plans due to the current raw material shortage, they had expected a rise in September-October production compared to July-August. Due to the shortage of zinc concentrate, treatment charges for this material are now a sharply negative. Refiners are therefore paying miners to process it. According to broker Marex, bullish speculative positions on the LME have reached their highest level since?the 2nd quarter of 2022. Copper gained 0.8% among LME metals. Aluminium rose by 0.83%. Lead added 0.31%. Nickel ticked up 0.14%. Tin?added 0.46%. Copper gained 0.83% among SHFE metals. Aluminium rose 0.73%. Lead lost 0.65%. Nickel climbed 0.68%. Tin advanced 1.25%.
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As oil crosses $91 per barrel, bond sales pressure stocks
As renewed fighting in the Middle East pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel, selling drove global bond yields to new highs. This put pressure on stock markets all over the world. The 10-year U.S. The 10-year?U.S. Treasury yield, which is used as a benchmark to set prices for all asset classes, increased 2.2 basis points, reaching a 20-month high of 4.78%. Japan's benchmark 10-year yield was close to 3%, the highest level in a generation. U.S. Futures stabilized after Wall Street Indexes recorded modest overnight drops, but the mood remained nervous as the U.S. Jobs data due on Friday could lead to an interest rate hike cycle beginning as early as this month. The rising tension between the U.S. and Iran, as well as higher oil prices, are fueling fears about inflation. This is bad for bonds. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reset expectations regarding the outlook. He said in a speech he gave late last week that policymakers would be forced to act if the price pressures did not ease. Wee?Khoon?Chong, APAC Macro Strategist of BNY, said that the macro mix has become more challenging in terms of duration and risk assets. "Hawkish policy, new geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, and increasing fiscal concerns are all combining to keep the upward pressure on global term premiums, as well as long-end yields." The Hang Seng and Japan's Nikkei both fell in the early trading, but the Hang Seng was a little more tepid. This was due to the disappointing debut of clothing retailer Shein Global. On Monday, German and French long-bond yields reached their highest in 15 years. Bund futures also made a 15-year low on Tuesday in Asia trading. French OAT futures were at their lowest level since their launch in 2012. Brent crude futures meanwhile, reached $91 per barrel in the morning Asian trade, while Europe's benchmark gasoline price closed Monday at a record high of more than three-and-a half years. The markets are pricing in a rate increase in New Zealand next Wednesday, and in Europe the following week. The odds of a rate hike in Japan and the U.S. this month are better than even. Geopolitics is a tense backdrop. After the first firefight in a whole month, U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran again. Meanwhile, increased fighting between Russia and Ukraine is pushing wheat prices close to a three-year-high. The U.S. Dollar has only received limited support from the global rise in borrowing costs. The dollar remained at $1.1619, while the euro stayed at $1.1619. The yen was at 159.76 per dollar. In Europe, preliminary?inflation numbers are expected later on Tuesday. Hong Kong Shein shares fell in early trade just below the offer price that was already reduced from previous fundraising rounds. Tariff and duty changes have hit the fast-fashion retailer known for its $5 tops, and $10 dresses in Europe and the U.S., eroding a key component of its low-cost model.
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Can the Middle East help with Asia's low refined fuel imports? Russell
The Iranian conflict has continued to affect the supply of refined petroleum products in Asia. In August, the region that consumes the most refined fuels saw its imports drop to their lowest level since the start of the war. Asia's imports of light and medium distillates were estimated at 5,10 million barrels a day (bpd), down from 5,61 million bpd during July, according to Kpler data, a commodities analyst. Imports are down by about 2 million bpd, compared to the 7.06 million bpd average in the three months prior to February 28, when Israel and the U.S. launched airstrikes against Iran. The market has focused on crude oil supply since the beginning of the conflict, due to the dramatic drop in the shipments that passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway was the route through which 20% of global oil shipments had been moving before the hostilities. The number of tankers moving through the strait remained limited, but there was debate over how much oil made it through. While the U.S. Energy secretary claimed that up to 9,000,000 bpd were being transported, several vessel tracking?services claim less than half. The oil market shouldn't be focused on the debate about crude volume leaving the Middle East, at least in the short term. Asia, the destination of about 90% Middle East crude oil, has adapted to lower supplies. The top buyer China, for example, cut its imports by almost 4 million bpd, and has also reduced inventories. The real pressure on the market is felt by refined products like jet fuel and diesel, especially middle distillates. The market has to cope with the loss in cargoes coming from the Middle East, as well as from Russia which has cut back on fuel shipments following the successful attack by Ukraine against several of its refineries. Singapore gasoil ended at $155.15 per barrel on Monday. This is up?70% compared to $91.42 on February 27th, the day before the Iran War began. On Monday, the profit margin of a typical Singapore refinery producing a barrel gasoil was $67.93. This is three times higher than the $21.90 on February 27. Gasoline has a similar dynamic. The profit is the same. For making a barrel light motor fuel end last week at $27.47 - more than threefold the $8.00 price the day before conflict began. PRODUCT FLOWS The large margins of light and middle distillates raises some questions regarding the dynamics of the market. Why do Gulf producers risk their lives by shipping crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz as well as the Bab el Mandeb waterway, when they can make "vastly more" money moving refined products instead? Kpler estimates that exports of middle and light distillates from the Middle East were 2.14 million barrels per day in August. This is down from 2.58 millions in July. The average daily production of 4.49 million bpd for the last three months is also 55% lower. Asia's imports are down about 2 million bpd as a result of the Middle East losing its supply. In the initial phases of Iran's war, Tehran attacked refineries across the Gulf. However, most of the damage was repaired. Some capacity is still offline. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are likely to have the refinery capacity needed to produce the fuels required in Asia. It may be a lack of vessels available to transport the products, and a difficulty of transferring fuel from one ship to another. This is assuming that you are able get the fuel through the Strait of Hormuz with no Iranian missiles or drones attacking. The Iran conflict has shown that the oil markets are remarkably good at adapting to difficult circumstances. High prices and a constrained supply of refined products could cause serious economic damage if Middle East producers do not switch to exporting more fuels. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Officials say that US oil company will take over Venezuelan oilfields that were previously operated by Chinese and Russian firms
Two U.S. officials said on Monday that the U.S. company North American Blue Energy Partners would take over oilfields controlled by several Chinese firms and a Russian firm. They said that the 'takeover' will be part of an oil production agreement President Donald Trump has announced with Venezuela. According to officials, the projects were part of 14 new contracts awarded to U.S.-backed North American Blue Energy Partners. NABEP, owned by U.S. oil magnate Harry Sargeant, is now controlled and managed by Venezuelan Alejandro Betancourt. Last week, Trump said that the U.S. has secured access to 64 billion barrels (or a quarter of Venezuela's proven reserves) through a partnership with private businesses. This arrangement allows U.S. firms to gain a foothold on some of Venezuela's strategic oil assets, while dislodging Chinese and Russian interests that have played a significant role in the energy sector for many years. Washington will also have a say in who sells and produces Venezuelan oil. The Trump administration is trying to reshape Venezuela's energy industry to better serve U.S. geopolitical and economic interests. NABEP will control 17 projects in Venezuela, which it intends to develop. The officials stated that five of the fourteen fields were operated by Chinese firms under a model promoted at the time by Nicolas Maduro. One field was operated previously by a Russian firm. China Concord Resources operated two of the projects, and was sanctioned in 2019 by the U.S. for Iran-related activities. The officials stated that Sinopec operated another project and China National Petroleum Corp. was responsible for a third. The official stated that "not only do we open up new opportunities for U.S. Government and operators, but we also open up the United States market as a place to sell this oil that was previously sent to China." Officials said that two other projects were run by affiliates who are affiliated with?Alex Saab?, an ex-close associate of Nicolas Maduro, the ousted Venezuelan president, currently held in U.S. custody. Officials said that another oilfield had been?linked' to the nephew of Maduro’s wife Cilia Flores. Trump said to reporters on Monday morning that the U.S. is taking "millions and thousands of barrels" of oil that are currently being shipped to refineries, including those in Texas and Louisiana. On Tuesday, he will meet with oil and gas retailers and refineries. Officials said that talks between Venezuelan interim authorities and members of the 2015 National Assembly were aimed at restoring constitutional order and addressing legal questions surrounding the transition of the country. The Trump administration views the 2015 assembly, which was elected and operates under Venezuela's constitution but has no formal ruling power, as the last Venezuelan legislature. An official stated that an agreement reached with the 2015 assembly would provide a legal and constitutional basis for a broader transition. This could include economic decisions, such as the revival the Venezuelan oil industry.
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Park Service: 20 or more people may be missing after flooding in Grand Canyon
The National Park Service reported that at least two people were killed, and up to 20 or more others are still unaccounted for, after flash floods struck the 'Grand Canyon' in Arizona on the weekend. This forced the helicopter evacuation of dozens hikers. The heavy rains of Saturday swept trails, footbridges, and other infrastructure away as a cascade mud, rocks, and debris washed through Bright Angel Creek. Bright Angel Creek is a major canyon that runs between the North Rim and the Colorado River. The National Park Service announced on Monday that two bodies had been recovered. One of the victims was a 46-year old man, whose remains had been found Sunday. Search-and-recovery efforts continued along the canyon's floor. Uncertain was the exact number of people still missing two days after the area around Bright Angel Creek in the canyon became a torrential flood due to heavy rains. The Park Service stated in a post on social media that it was looking for "information" about at least 20 people who were missing or not accounted for following the flood of Saturday. According to the Park Service, as of Sunday morning, 62 people had been evacuated. This included a historic lodge and campground located near the confluence between Bright Angel Creek, the Colorado River, and North Kaibab Trail which follows the creek into the canyon. The Park Service reported that "the flooding caused extensive damages to the infrastructure in the inner Canyon, including the Transcanyon Waterline which supplies water for use in park from the canyon." The agency reported that the temporary shutdown of the system left the park with limited water resources, which required significant conservation measures to maintain park facilities. The South Rim of the Park was open for the public on Monday during the day, but the overnight accommodations and concessions were closed. Additional thunderstorms are expected to arrive early next week. The Park Service has asked visitors to stay away from flood-affected areas for now. David Gregory, a visitor to the park, told CBS News he and guests from the Phantom Ranch 'lodging complex' fled over a footbridge towards higher ground at the prompting of a ranger. This was just 10 minutes prior to the span being washed away. He said, "It was a whirlpool inside, with debris, cabins, and other equipment from maintenance work sites circling around." "I don’t think we’d have made it out alive... I think the game would have been over." U.S. Representative David Schweikert of Arizona, a Republican, was among the Grand Canyon National Park guests caught up in this flood. He and his friends were rafting through the canyon, near Bright 'Angel Creek, when they heard a roar approaching. Schweikert told the Arizona Republic that it sounded "like a few locomotives crashing through and smashing rocks". He said that his group was able to make it to safety by hiking. The Grand Canyon is one of the most popular national parks in the United States, attracting 4.4 million tourists last year.
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Oil prices and yields are up; US and Iran resume their military attacks
The yields on bonds rose, and the stock market fell Monday due to a jump in oil prices of more than 2%. This was accompanied by a return of military conflicts between the U.S. Worries about inflation are exacerbated by the resumption of military clashes between the?U.S. U.S. President Donald Trump promised to "hit them hard" on Monday after Iran launched missiles at two U.S. bases in Jordan overnight in response to an attack by the U.S. on Iran's Larak island. Brent crude futures rose by $2.39 or 2.71% to settle at $90.59 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed $2.36 or 2.83% to settle at $8576. Brent reached its highest level since August 25 during the session. This kept the possibility of future interest rate hikes by major central banks alive. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday increased bets that the Fed will raise interest rates by September. Fed funds futures traders now price in 65% odds for a rate hike in September, up from 35% prior to Warsh's Friday comments. It is widely expected that the European Central Bank will raise rates at its meeting on September 9-10. U.S. Treasury rates rose, and the dollar edged down as expectations increased of a Fed rate hike in September. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average?fall 374.09 points or 0.70% to 53,185.90. The S&P 500 dropped 25.62 points or 0.33% to 7,686.14 while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 31.53 points or 0.12% to 26,370.89. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage. He also said that the market was about to enter "a month which is usually quite difficult for stocks." The stock market has historically had a poor performance in September. Trading volumes were low as London's markets were closed on a holiday. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.6% to 651.1 points. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 3.94 points or 0.34% to 1,149.22. Major indexes have posted gains in August despite the losses on the day. The Nasdaq rose 3.9% in August, as the AI trade continued to thrive despite recent weakness. The Dow Jones industrial average has now risen for five consecutive months. The MSCI Global Index is up 2.6% in August. There are dark clouds out there. Adam Sarhan is the chief executive officer of 50 Park Investments, a New York-based investment firm. He said that inflation and rate increases are two of the biggest risks. However, the market is holding up so far. The Fed's decision to move as soon as next month will depend on the U.S. August payroll report due Friday and the consumer price data that is due September 11. After July's shocking decline of 23,000 workers, economists expect payrolls will increase by 58,000. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.1%. The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill in the United States was up 3.6 basis point at 4.758%. It had earlier reached 4.768%. This is its highest level since January 15, 2020. The yield has increased by 1.5 basis points for the month. Prior to this, the yields on French and German 2-year bonds also rose. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currency versus six major counterparts) was down 0.24% to 99.43, after reaching 99.73 on Thursday, its highest since August 17. The index is on course for a second monthly decline following the U.S. Treasury Bond-buyback Plans earlier in the month that revived debasement trading. The yen rose on Monday, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he believed Japan's central bank and government would take actions to strengthen the yen. This suggests a high probability of an interest rate increase by the Bank of Japan in September. After slipping past 160 dollars on Friday, the yen gained 0.2% and is now at 159.77. Spot gold dropped 0.1% to $4.448.30 per ounce.
Poland's largest army is built on home-grown defence manufacturing
Government officials and companies claim that as Poland builds Europe's largest army, the country is turning to domestic defence companies, including those in central Europe, to reduce its reliance on suppliers from faraway places who are unable to ramp up delivery quickly.
According to Armaments Agency figures analysed by?, the amount spent on Polish defence procurement, including joint ventures, from domestic companies has nearly quadrupled since 2022, reaching 30.4 billion Zlotys ($8.15 billion) in 2018.
Officials say that while the Ukraine conflict prompted increased defence spending in Europe, Poland is a country where it's top priority because the country shares its border with Ukraine, and views Russia as a threat to its existence.
Konrad Golota, Deputy Minister of State Assets, said: "We are building the largest land force in Europe."
The fact that something is manufactured in Poland and is used by the Polish army is increasingly important.
More than a dozen officials, companies, and experts said that Warsaw has increased capital spending in the last year. This reflects a change in priorities that will create opportunities for defense firms in the area.
According to NATO, Poland will spend EUR 53 billion ($61.45 Billion) this year on its core defence, making it the fourth highest in the EU behind France, Italy, and Germany. This is up from EUR 44 billion in 2025, and represents around 4.7% GDP.
Polish officials have stated that while big-ticket items such as U.S.-made Patriot rocket batteries, Abrams tank and F-35 jet fighters?remains important, expanding domestic and region production of drones and ammunition, and other commonly used equipment, has become a top priority.
RIGIONAL SHIFT
Poland's new strategy is part of a wider rethink in Europe, as governments look to rebuild their defence industrial capacities after the Ukraine war exposed how quickly ammunition stocks can be depleted by modern conflicts.
The Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister,?Wladyslaw kosiniakKamysz, said: "This investment is not just to develop a high-tech defence industry that will drive the Polish economy. It's also about supply chain independence."
It ensures that independent supplies are available to the front lines in the event of a need.
Until recently, the presence of defence firms from countries like the Czech Republic and Slovakia in Poland was limited. Poland relied heavily upon state-owned producers, such as PGZ, and U.S. suppliers.
These companies now see an opportunity.
CSG of Czechoslovakia, a major ammunition supplier to Ukraine, has signed several agreements to expand its production in Poland in the last few months.
These include a technology transfer to PGZ's subsidiary MESKO, and an agreement to expand the production of drones and missiles as well as ammunition and armored vehicles.
CSG's Polish division has also acquired Domar MS, a manufacturer of defence components.
CSG has signed a contract worth EUR150m with Huta Stalowa Wola to provide fighting vehicle equipment. The agreement is valued at EUR100m.
Wojciech Gzonka, CSG Polska's Chief Executive Officer, said that Central Europe is undergoing a broader change in the way defence industrial capability is built.
"Poland is one of the key directions in our long-term expansion and development of production capabilities."
'NEAR-SHORING' PIONEER'
Warsaw's offensive has prompted other defence groups to respond.
The Polish arms manufacturer Grupa Niewiadow (a Niewiadow PGM division) is establishing 155 mm ammo production with KNDS Ammo France. Production will reach 180,000 rounds per year by next year.
PGZ announced in March that it would partner with Estonia's Frankenburg Technologies in order to manufacture ultra-short range air defence systems in Poland.
Zdenek rod, a defence specialist at CEVRO University, in Prague, stated that Poland is emerging as a leader in efforts to "nearshore" military manufacturing within Europe.
Rod explained that "for years, the United States has been a top priority for ensuring NATO interoperability." "Now Poland also tries to ensure resilience against disruptions around the world by turning more towards regional and European suppliers."
Polish officials have also said that they are examining expanding industrial cooperation with other countries, including Slovakia and Hungary.
The German company?Rheinmetall's said that the rising demand for its land combat systems from Poland is one of the reasons it has established production capacity in Poland and developed a regional maintenance hub.
Rheinmetall stated that "the demand generated by Poland's modernisation program in defence justifies the establishment of full-scale production facilities there. These can be integrated into European Supply Chains and contribute to redundancy, resilience and European Defence Industrial System."
Poland and Estonia are among the few NATO countries that are close to meeting their NATO commitment of spending 5% of GDP for defence by 2035. Warsaw offered last month to produce Patriot air defence missiles with Ukraine and the United States as a sign of its ambitions in the defence industry.
Golota, Deputy Minister of State Assets, said: "If you are interested in selling in Poland, then you must invest in Poland. You have to transfer technologies and work with us on joint projects."
The more factories we have and the more know-how that we have, the better for our defense.
(source: Reuters)