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In May, higher gasoline prices are likely to have pushed the US consumer price index up again.

The Middle East conflict has increased the prices of energy products in the United States, and this will give the Federal Reserve more ammunition to maintain interest rates at the same level for the rest of the year.

Wednesday's Consumer Price Index readings, which are expected to be the third consecutive month of high year-over-year comparisons, will likely highlight increasing pressure on households as more consumers use their savings to fund their purchases. The inflation rate is expected to exceed wage growth for the second consecutive month in May, which could have a negative impact on economic growth. The rising cost of living poses a serious political problem for Donald Trump and the Republican Party as they seek to maintain control of Congress during the November midterm elections. Trump's promise to reduce inflation was a major reason he won the presidential election of 2024. However, his approval ratings have fallen as frustration grows over his economic management.

Joseph?Brusuelas is chief economist at RSM. He said that the top-line inflation increase will surpass wage growth for a second consecutive month. This means that Americans' paychecks are declining in real terms. If this trend continues, it could pose a problem for household consumption in second half of the year.

A survey of economists has predicted that the Consumer Price Index will likely increase by 4.2% over the past 12 months, ending in May. This would be the biggest annual increase in the CPI in over a decade, and follow a 3.8% advance in April. In March, the CPI rose 3.3% on an annual basis. The CPI is expected to increase 0.5% monthly in May, after increasing 0.6% in April.

In order to achieve its 2% target, the U.S. Central bank monitors the Personal Consumption Spending Price Indexes. All inflation measures are well above the Fed target. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the national average gasoline cost increased by 8.8% in may to $4.60 per gallon. Gasoline prices had increased by over 50% at one point since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February.

In recent weeks, prices have fallen amid a ceasefire. This has led some economists to be cautiously optimistic that the CPI could peak in May. Although the Strait of Hormuz shipping restrictions have increased fertilizer prices, this hasn't yet led to a significant increase in food prices.

Stephen Stanley, Santander U.S. Capital Markets' chief U.S. economics, said that there is a high probability that the headline inflation rate will peak in May. However, the oil price could rise again, depending on what happens in the Middle East.

The labor market is resilient. This report follows the news that was released last week, stating the economy had posted a third consecutive month of job growth above expectations in May. The unemployment rate has remained at 4,3% for the third consecutive month. Although financial markets are pricing in an increase, economists continue to believe the central bank has a high bar to raise interest rates. Others argued that, aside from high airfares and other signs of oil price shock affecting the services sector, there was no evidence to support this.

Core CPI, excluding volatile components such as food and energy, was projected to have increased by 2.9% in May after increasing by 2.8% in April. Core CPI was forecast to have increased 0.3% on a monthly basis, after increasing 0.4%.

James Knightley is the chief international economist at ING. "We are in a situation where the central bank still views monetary policy as restrictive."

The monthly CPI is expected to moderate in part due to the diminishing boost that was given by a one-time adjustment of rent measures, after the shutdown of government last year prevented data collection. The artificial intelligence boom has driven up the prices of software and computers, but they have a lower weighting in the core CPI basket. In the core inflation basket, there is a greater weighting.

Unexpectedly, a deflation of used cars and trucks has also helped curb the?inflation of goods. Import tariffs divided economists. Some saw the price increase as being largely over, while others believed that the duty was still increasing prices.

Diego Anzoategui is an economist with Morgan Stanley. He said that the economy was nearing the end phase of tariff pass-through. Our estimates show that tariffs have raised prices by 63 basis point so far. The total pass-through is closer to 70 basis point. We began to see a slowdown in March, and we expect this trend to continue. Reporting by Lucia Muttikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci

(source: Reuters)