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Oil market could reach a'red area' in July and August, IEA chief claims
The International Energy Agency's head said that the combination of the start of summer peak fuel demand, a lack of new Middle East oil exports and dwindling stocks could push oil prices into the "red" zone in July-August. Fatih Birol, speaking at Chatham House London in reference to oil supply problems caused by the Iran War, said: "We could be in the red zone as early as July or August." The Middle East is experiencing the worst oil crisis ever as a result of attacks on energy infrastructure, and the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. THE RED ZONE Birol didn't elaborate on the exact definition of a "red zone". ?But he stated that the combined effect of the IEA coordinated '400 million barrels strategic reserve release and 'commercial stockdraws are not enough to resolve the crisis. Birol stated that the "single most important solution" is to open up the Strait of Hormuz in its entirety and without condition. Birol stated that the 32-member IEA coordinated strategic reserve release is the largest release of its kind in history. It now flows to the market between 2.5 and 3 million barrels a day. Calculations show that if the initial 400 million barrels are released at the same pace, they will reach the market in August. This coincides with Birol's possible red zone. Birol said that the IEA was ready to coordinate any further releases if needed. The recovery of production in the Middle East will be slow Birol stated that it will take time to bring the Middle?East's oil production and refinery capacity back to their pre-war level. The recovery time will vary from one country to another. Birol stated that "my biggest fear is Iraq" as the country's finances were severely damaged by lower oil revenues. Iraq was also forced to close oil fields due to a lack in storage capacity, making it difficult to restart them. He added that countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, on the other hand, have access to leading technologies and finance, which could make the recovery easier. Brent oil futures traded at around $108 per barrel on Thursday. This is down from their highs during the war of $126 per barrel, but it's still above the $70 per barrel they were trading before the Iran War began.
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Ebola confirmed in rebel-held Congo far from the outbreak's epicentre
The rebel alliance in the area confirmed a case of Ebola on Thursday. It is located hundreds of kilometres away from the epicenter of the outbreak. The outbreak, which was undetected in Ituri Province, some 300 kilometres north of Bukavu for two months, has now been detected. According to the World Health Organization, 139 deaths have been linked to this outbreak. As of Wednesday, 600 suspected cases had been reported in Ituri province and North Kivu. Two cases were also confirmed in the neighboring country of Uganda. Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the Rwandan-backed M23 M23 rebels that seized eastern DRC in the past year) said the 28-year old patient was buried safe after he died. The individual was said to have travelled from Kisangani in the north, but no information on recent movements were provided. Earlier on Thursday, South Kivu's health spokesperson?Claude Bahizire said that two suspected cases were detected in the region. This included the fatal case. He said that the other patient was being held in isolation while he awaited test results. Last week, an Ebola outbreak was confirmed in Goma, capital of the neighbouring North Kivu Province, which is controlled by?M23. KNOWN CASES NOT THE COMPLETE PICTURE Over the weekend, the WHO declared the outbreak of Bundibugyo, the strain of the virus for which there is currently no vaccine available, as a public-health emergency of international concern. Jane Halton is the chairperson of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. She said that the confirmed cases are likely only the "top of the iceberg". CEPI, a funding agency for vaccine development, evaluates potential candidates to fight Ebola. She said that it might be possible to reach CEPI's goal of having an effective, safe vaccine for major outbreaks in 100 days. However, this would require "a lot of work". The spread of the outbreak in densely-populated urban areas, and the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC have complicated efforts to contain it. The outbreak in 2018-2020 of the Zaire strain was the second deadliest ever recorded, with nearly?2,300 deaths. UGANDA CRITICIZES U.S. TRAVEL BAN First responders are complaining that they don't have the basic supplies. Some have blamed a?cut in foreign aid by?major donor countries, which has weakened local health care and disease surveillance. The UK announced on Thursday that it would allocate up to 27 million pounds (20 million pounds) towards the response. The United States has committed $23 millions to the response. They gave $600 million for 2018-2020. Uganda's Health Ministry said late Wednesday that the United States had not consulted it on plans to set up clinics. It also stressed there was no local transmission. Information Minister Chris 'Baryomunsi said the U.S. "overreacted" when it banned most travelers?from Uganda along with DRC, South Sudan and South Sudan earlier this week. He said, "We have dealt with cases of Ebola in other epidemics over a number years." "There are resources in the country that can contain these epidemics."
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Germany charges two men with plotting to kill Jewish leaders in Iran
German federal prosecutors have announced that they have brought criminal charges against two Danish nationals and one Afghani suspect of helping Iran to plot the murder of prominent Jewish leaders in Germany. According to?German data privacy law, the defendants are accused of committing a 'attempted murder'. The statement claimed that Ali S. worked for the 'intelligence service of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and had close ties to their special 'unit, the Quds force. The prosecution said that in early 2025, he had been tasked to gather information about the President of Central Council of Jews in Germany Josef Schuster and the Chairman of German-Israeli Society Volker Beck. They also added that he was instructed to spy on Jewish grocers from Berlin. The prosecution said that "all of this was done to facilitate the planning of murders and arson attacks" in Germany. Could not immediately contact the lawyers of the suspects. In July of last year, German and Danish authorities reported that a Danish national was arrested in Denmark on suspicion of snooping for Iran. He was suspected to have collected information about Jewish sites in Berlin and on individuals. (Reporting and editing by Peter Graff.)
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Indians switch to retail fuel pumps in search of cheaper diesel, causing a shortage
According to a government official, industrial customers are increasingly buying diesel at cheaper retail outlets run by'state-run' companies, rather than from the bulk supply points. This is causing shortages at the pump in some areas. Sujata Singh, joint secretary of the federal oil ministry, stated that diesel sales have increased by 20-30% in some areas. Industrial buyers are paying 40-42 rupees per litre more than retail prices. In New Delhi, the retail price for a litre is 91.58 rupees. Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp., all state-run companies, are now losing money because they're selling diesel below the market price to retail customers. Sharma said that bulk customers should go to bulk supply points, while retail buyers should visit the petrol pumps. She said that state fuel retailers monitor sales in outlets where there are shortages, and they seek support from local authorities and the police to reduce purchases by bulk purchasers. The preliminary fuel sales data shows that Indian state retailers increased their diesel sales by nearly 11.5% from May 1-15, to approximately 3.8 million metric tonnes. Gasoline sales increased by nearly 19% from 1.8 million tons. She said that the Indian state retailers' sales of diesel are also driven primarily by higher prices charged by private fuel retailers, and an increase in consumption among farmers who use diesel generators to irrigate during harvest season. BPCL said on Thursday that its gasoline sales grew by 16.38% between May 1-20, compared to a year ago. Gasoil sales grew by 16.7% and reached about 1.7 million kilolitres. The company stated that it is focused on maintaining seamless supply across smaller cities and distant markets "where localised demands spiked and precautionary purchasing tendencies were observed in recent weeks". (Reporting and editing by Nidhi verma)
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Copper retreats on the slow progress of U.S. - Iran peace efforts
Copper prices eased on Thursday due to concerns over the'slow progress of the U.S. in negotiating a peace agreement with Iran and a possible 'weaker demand for metals from a prolonged war. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.3%, to $13,480 per metric ton during the official open-outcry trade after rising by 1.8% the previous session. LME copper is up 8% for the year, but it has fallen from its high of $14,196.50 last week. Ewa Mnthey, commodities strategist at ING, said: "For the moment, geopolitics are setting the tone. But without a clear catalyst for demand, copper is struggling to maintain its record-high momentum." The talks to end the conflict have made little progress in six weeks, even though Pakistan has stepped up its diplomatic efforts. Investors try to balance out the effects of possible supply shortages due to mine disruptions, and a lack of sulphuric acids against the threat of demand erosion due to increased inflation and weaker growth. Standard Chartered analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan said: "The market for base metals is still wary about the demand loss that could result from high energy prices, and its implications on global growth and 'inflation. LME aluminium increased 0.7% to $3,648 per ton. This was aided by investors who were bullish and bet on more disruptions in Gulf. About 8%-9% of global output is produced in the?region. LME nickel fell 1% to $18,740 per ton, as investors digested details of a?Indonesian?policy to place the exports of certain nickel products under?state?control. Zinc fell 0.6%, to $3,533.50 per ton. Lead edged up 0.5% to $1,990, and tin declined 2%, to $52,950.
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India's electricity demand reaches a record of 270 GW despite outages due to scorching heat
India's peak power demand reached a "record" high of 270.73 Gigawatts Thursday. Some regions in the nation experienced power outages as a scorching heat wave increased demand for cooling. New Delhi has already exceeded its expectations of 270GW in peak power demand. And there is still more than a whole month of summer left. El Nino, a weather pattern that is causing power demand to increase, has caused a heat wave in large swathes on the subcontinent. India's peak power demand has been at a record high for four consecutive days this week, due to the intense heatwaves. The data from the federal power ministry shows that Thursday's total surpassed a previous record of 265.44GW. The Indian weather bureau has predicted that many Indian states will experience heat waves above average in May. Ankit Jain is vice president at ICRA Limited and co-group leader of corporate ratings. He said that the peak demand could increase if "heatwaves continue to be severe in major parts of India." Jain said that the overall energy deficit in India was 0.2%, and the peak deficit reached?0.1% during April. This could have caused power cuts. Grid-India data shows that localised power outages have been reported in certain regions during the night. This indicates a growing'stress' in the system, even though the overall supply is adequate during the day. India's non-fossil energy capacity is about 228 GW, but it still relies on coal for more than 70% of its?power production. Jain explained that the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources could lead to power shortages in some areas due to an unexpected spike in demand. (Reporting and editing by Sethuraman NR)
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QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil Sign Deal with Egypt to Study Cyprus Gas Development
QatarEnergy announced on Thursday that it had signed a preliminary agreement with 'ExxonMobil' and Egypt's Government to study 'development and commercialisation' of 'gas discoveries' in 'Cyprus, using Egypt's gas and LNG infrastructure. QatarEnergy stated that the memorandum "highlights Egypt as a possible hub for Eastern Mediterranean Gas, supporting deeper integration of Egypt and Cyprus in the field of natural gases while optimizing the utilisation of existing infrastructure". Egypt's liquefaction plants, which convert natural gas to liquefied gas for export, have been underused for a long time. Gas infrastructure in Egypt?serves domestic customers?and international markets. QatarEnergy was the largest LNG producer in the world before the U.S. - Israel war with Iran. However, two of its 14 LNG trains were damaged by Iranian attacks on March, causing a loss of 12.8 million tonnes per year for three to five years. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and it's impossible to ship LNG. Before the conflict, a fifth of all global oil and gas was shipped through this strait. QatarEnergy CEO Saad Al-Kaabi said that the agreement was a step toward advancing energy cooperation across the Eastern Mediterranean. He is also Qatar's Minister of State for Energy.
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Diesel prices rise on Iran war, causing fishing boats to dock worldwide
Captain Chris Welch, of Kennebunk in Maine, has caught fewer lobsters than usual this spring due to the rising diesel prices. To conserve fuel, he checks and re-baits his traps once every seven to ten days. Welch, after fueling his vessel Quality Time on a rainy morning at Kennebunk's Harbor, said, "It reduces your profitability." "We have to pay more attention to the bottom line." Welch, a U.S. fisherman, is "one" of many around the globe whose boats spend more time docked this spring due to soaring fuel prices, driven by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. This has compromised their small profit margins. Blockade of Middle East shipments has caused fertilizer prices to rise, forcing farmers to reconsider their planting plans. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, fuel price spikes have had little impact on the global catch of fish. Manuel Barange is the director of the FAO's Fisheries and Aquaculture Division. He said that if fuel prices continue to rise, they could have a greater impact on the global fish catch. Fuel prices have become a major concern for both consumers and businesses. They also pose a vulnerability to President Donald Trump's Republican Party as they seek to protect their slim majority in the U.S. Congress during the midterm elections in November. Trump courted U.S. Commercial Fishing Industry as a political constituency by issuing an Executive Order last year that aimed to reduce regulation and advance technologies in order to help them compete globally. Welch said that it was unclear whether Maine's reduced catch of seafood would affect local lobster prices in the summer when vacationers flood into the state. This is because dealers who buy and ship lobsters to restaurants may also be hit with higher fuel costs, which they might not be able afford. He said, "This is something that affects us daily." Fewer Days on the Water According to AAA's Fuel Price Monitor, the average price for a gallon of diesel this week was $5.65, up from $3.55 one year ago. It is now close to the record set in 2022 at $5.82. Fuel is the largest expense for fishing fleets. They may need tens or thousands of gallons of fuel to fill up their boats. Deborah Long, Southern Shrimp Alliance's media liaison, told the Southern Shrimp Alliance that some shrimpers in the U.S. Gulf Coast cannot afford to fill up their 15,000-gallon tank and have been skipping trips. Imports impacted the U.S. Shrimp Industry even before fuel prices rose. According to a report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in March, imports lowered the value of this sector by 50 percent between 2021 and 2023. Long stated that "that price jump has wiped out their entire margin." Alaska is not immune to the pain. According to Linda Behnken of Sitka, executive director of Alaska Longline Fishermen's Association and a Sitka fisherman, fuel can make up as much as 40% of a fishing trip's expenses. Behnken stated that the price of gas increased by over $1 per gallon in just one week. This was right before everyone filled up their tanks for the start of the season. "That has a really big impact on cost of operation." Behnken stated that the current prices for halibut, sablefish (also known as black cod), and other species of fish are so high that boat trips to catch these species continue. When the less profitable salmon season begins in July, the diesel costs could be too high for boats to leave the dock. Sonny Beal is the president of Maine Lobstermen's Association. He said that in addition to bait and rope, fishing crews are also facing rising costs as a result of inflation. He said that many people spend fewer days on water. GLOBAL IMPACTS Lee Gi-sam is the secretary general of the National Fishermen's Alliance. He said that since the beginning of the war, the number vessels fishing for anchovies,?gizzard shads, yellowtails and mackerels has decreased by over 30%. Boats are mostly parked in Indonesia because the fish prices are not high enough for a profit, especially with diesel prices on the rise. This is according to?Akhiq Fail Al Arif, an owner of a boat located at Pati Regency, Central Java, which is situated along Indonesia's northern coast. The Indonesian Tuna Association's secretary general Muhammad Billahmar said that vessels already at sea would?stay out of port, but those returning to port wouldn't go back out due to high fuel prices. The European fleets are also suffering. Just weeks after the start of the war, the Dutch Fishers Union reported that half their vessels were parked instead of being used for fishing. Reporting by Leah Douglas, Lauren Owens Lambert, in Kennebunk Maine, and Richard Valdmanis, in Portland Maine; Additional reporting by Heejin KIM in Seoul, Yuddy Cahya, Dewi Kurniawati, and Yuddy Budiman in Jakarta; Editing and production by David Gregorio
Can Wall Street's boom ease workers' suffering? McGeever
The majority of U.S. householders own stocks and are becoming richer, but the gains are not evenly distributed. U.S. workers’ share of national GDP has fallen to a record low, and there are growing fears about an AI-induced "jobpocalypse". This broad but concentrated ownership of equity is becoming more significant.
Can the "wealth" effect - where people feel richer and spend more when asset prices increase - be offset by other economic forces that are more difficult to overcome for a 'Joe on average?
Wall Street has never been more important to the financial fortunes and success of Americans. Over 60% of American households either directly or inadvertently own stocks. A record third of the total assets of U.S. household is invested in stocks.
Wall Street is still booming, thanks to artificial intelligence. The net U.S. house value as a percent of personal disposable income is at its highest level ever, even if you exclude the pandemic distortions in 2021 and 2022.
Why, then, is consumer confidence at an all-time low, according to some closely monitored measures?
EXTREME CENTRATION
Part of the answer lies in the fact that wealth is not distributed equally.
The richest 10% of Americans own 90% of all U.S. equity. Even more is concentrated at the top. The richest 1% owns 50% of the stock market wealth of the entire country.
The vast equity hoard of the wealthy is distorting the overall picture, and is helping to perpetuate the "K"-shaped economy where the wealthy are doing well, while the rest is struggling.
In fact, workers are lagging behind in several ways. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that U.S. worker's share of output is at a record low 54.1%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show that U.S. workers' share of output has dropped to a record-low 54.1%.
It's no surprise that American consumers are watching their wallets closely, regardless of what happens on Wall Street.
In fact, the earnings reports and outlooks of some of the biggest U.S. retailers indicate a shift is underway in U.S. consumer spending patterns - mainly downwards.
Home Depot expects demand to remain volatile as customers scale back on major home improvements. Lowe's, a rival home improvement chain, also indicated a tightening of spending due to sluggish housing markets.
TJX, parent company of discount retailer TJ Maxx has raised its outlook, perhaps because cost-conscious customers are flocking from its more expensive competitors to its stores.
Walmart has maintained its conservative sales and profit targets as fuel prices continue to rise, driving shoppers to their low-priced essentials and groceries.
Has the "wealth" effect become a luxury?
WORKERS SHRINK SHARE OF PIE
It may have, but it can still keep the economy in general humming.
Credit Insights analysts believe that the wealth effect functions as an "economic and political narrative offset" for the current gloomy mood affecting large segments of U.S. consumer.
Bank of America also seems optimistic. They argue that equity markets would need to enter a "sustained decline" in order to slow spending by higher-income earners and close the "K" from a 'K-shaped economy' via negative wealth effects.
Remember that wealthy Americans are responsible for a large portion of the total U.S. consumer spending.
Generali Asset Management's research, however, strikes a cautionary note. It was published even before the Iran War sent energy prices skyrocketing.
Generali strategists claim that consumption growth driven by positive wealth effects is likely to be smaller than in the past, and more sensitive to market volatility.
The models show that a 8% drop in the stock markets would reduce GDP by 0.4%. "The actual impact is likely to be greater given the current over-abundance of wealth effects."
Stock market boom has proven to be a major factor in the falsification of warnings that the U.S. Consumer is on the way out. Wall Street will have a lot of work to do, given the amount of?pressure being put on Americans.
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(source: Reuters)