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Lebanese reports say that 13 people were killed by Israeli airstrikes in the south of Lebanon
Lebanese sources of security said that Israeli airstrikes killed at least 13 people in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. Israel continued its campaign against Hezbollah, and the Iran-backed group claimed to have launched 'fresh attacks' against Israeli forces. National News Agency, the official state news agency, reported that nine people were killed in Dayr Debba village, located 8 km (5miles) east of Tyre. After an Israeli airstrike, footage showed cars on fire in the southern city of Sidon. Lebanon is still a major frontline of the Middle -East conflict more than 'three months after the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran sparked the conflict. The Lebanon war sparked escalation in the ?wider conflict earlier this week, when Israel struck Beirut's ?Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, prompting Iran ?to retaliate with a missile attack on Israel, which in turn struck Iran, before Israel and Iran halted attacks. According to the Lebanon's Health Ministry, Israeli attacks have killed almost 3,700 people in Lebanon since March 2. 730 were women, children, or doctors. Authorities also claim that 1.2 million people in Lebanon have been forced from their homes. Hezbollah entered the war on 2 March, claiming it was in retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader at the beginning of the conflict. According to a list of Israeli military announcements compiled since then, 28 Israeli soldiers have died in combat in Lebanon. Meanwhile, four civilians were killed by Hezbollah in attacks. The Lebanese army reported that a Lebanese man died on Wednesday, March 18, from injuries caused by an Israeli airstrike. Reporting by Alexander Cornwell, Jerusalem; Writing by Tom Perry and Editing by Alexandra Hudson
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The gold output of Ivory Coast is expected to increase in 2026, as the mines expand
Director?general of mines for Ivory Coast, the West African country, said that gold production is expected to increase from 59.33 tonnes in 2025 to 62 metric tonnes in '2026 as existing?mines expand their operations. Seydoucoulibaly predicted that production would increase to 63 tonnes in 2027, and to around 69 tonnes in 2028. There are currently 14 gold mines operating in the world's leading cocoa producer. He said that the number of gold mines in operation will increase to 15 within two years, with the Kone mine coming online, and 17 in three, when the Doropo mine and the?Tanda Mine come online. Ghana is the largest gold producer in Africa, with a?output? of 187 tons last year. This data was provided by the World Gold Council. Ivory Coast authorities are trying to reduce the gap in their efforts to diversify their economy. Coulibaly stated that "in recent years, Ivory Coast became increasingly attractive for gold exploration. The growing interest of domestic and international investors?is a testament to this attraction." He stated that the government had granted 151 permits out of the 189 applications in 2023, 160 of the 203 in 2020, and 171 of the 225 in 2025. This reflects the growing interest of investors in this sector. Coulibaly stated that the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, Energy and Planning plans to use SIREXE (an international exhibition on extractive resources and renewable energy) in Abidjan, from November 18-22, to "showcase" new mining projects, and to attract foreign investors. Mining companies operating in Ivory Coast are Roxgold, Perseus Mining and Resolute Mining from Australia and Endeavour Mining of the UK. Reporting by Loucoumane Colibaly, Editing by Clement Bonnerot & Joe Bavier
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Ukraine Police chief: Russia recruits young girls to kill Ukrainian servicemen
Ukraine's police chief accused Russia of recruiting teenage Ukrainian girls to kill Ukrainian soldiers, after the arrest of 17-year old girl suspected of killing a serviceman under the orders of a Russian agent. Ivan Vyhivskyi, the national police chief, said in an interview with Ukrainian media outlet Cenzor.NET published on Wednesday that there had been six cases this year of contract killings organized via Telegram messaging application, of which one was prevented. He said: "We're talking about planned killings, organised by special services of the aggressor country and committed by Ukrainians." The FSB, Russia's security service, was not immediately able to comment. Russian security services have accused Kyiv for recruiting Russians to bombings in Russia. Ukrainian military intelligence has also claimed responsibility for the assassination of several senior Russian officers following Moscow's invasion in 2022. Vyhivskyi claimed that Russian recruiters find young women through messaging platforms. They promise them easy money, and coordinate their actions remotely. Vyhivskyi stated that the young women were told to look for Ukrainian military personnel in dating websites and they received money from their handlers so that they could rent apartments. He said they were told where to get methadone for laceing drinks. Methadone is a'synthetic opiate used as a painkiller, which can be deadly in high doses. Ukraine's security services has said that more than 1,100 Ukrainians were accused of arson, terrorism, or sabotage as a betrayal?of their own country during the war. Last week, police detained a woman aged 17 in Zhytomyr, a western region. They said that she was 'communicating via Telegram' with a man who they believed to be a Russian intelligence agent. Police said that she had received a package containing a substance investigators assumed to be methadone. (Reporting and editing by Daniel Flynn, Timothy Heritage and Anna Pruchnicka)
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Report: Indonesian floods killed at least 7% orangutans, a rare species.
A new report published on Wednesday shows that deadly floods and landslides last year in Indonesia's Sumatra have?wipedout at least 7% the population of the critically endangered Tapanuli Orangutan. At least 1,200 people were killed and 300,000 homes damaged by the landslides and floods caused by the cyclone. Environmental groups blamed the deforestation on Sumatra for the severity of the damages. The report stated that at least 58 Tapanuli Orangutans were killed by the floods. These orangutans are native to north Sumatra, and live in an area near Batang Toru Forest. This forest is also home to the majority of 800 primates. The report, a joint research by Borneo Futures in Brunei, World Weather Attribution, and Liverpool John Moores University did not include the other areas of the forest. This means that the death toll may have been higher. Satellite images of damage to West Block of Batang Toru, and historical records of orangutan populations there were analysed. The study found that climate change caused by humans has increased extreme rainfall in the Malacca Strait area, which puts the habitat of the Tapanuli Orangutan at greater risk. Erik Meijaard, the lead author, from Borneo Futures said that the heavy rains soaked up the soil to the point where large areas of hillsides in primary forests collapsed into fast-moving land slides. He said: "If you are caught in the act of being an orangutan... If anything falls at high speeds, your chances of survival will be very minimal. This became a concern." This level of loss is substantial for a species that has a relatively small population. Combining this with other pressures, such as habitat destruction and conflict between humans and wildlife, further increases the urgency to implement and properly resource a coordinated species action plan. Panut Hadisiswoyo is another researcher who urged the Indonesian Government to work with researchers and NGOs to prevent a further decline in the orangutan populations. "We can minimise poaching and hunting, then the population will probably be stabilized," he added, adding that everyone must also pay attention to poor land use, which contributes to the decline in the population. (Reporting and editing by Gibran Pshimam, David Stanway, and Ananda Teresia)
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The world markets are on a tightrope, balancing between AI stocks and oil price shocks
Investors said that the turmoil on the world markets over the past week showed the economic outlook was 'now on a razor edge. There are equal odds for an AI boom to lift growth, or for oil shocks resulting from the U.S. - Iran war to send stocks and bonds into a tailspin. Global equities reached an all-time high on June 3 and then suffered their worst day in October the next day. This week, they have spent a lot of time reversing direction constantly to match U.S. president Donald Trump's volatile remarks about Iran as well as rapidly changing bets regarding when the Strait of Hormuz might reopen. Florian Ielpo, head of multi-asset and macro portfolio management at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, said that most investors had been assuming that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen in less than three months. He added: "If we were to expect oil prices at $95 for several months in the future, it would represent a radical change of outlook and a stagflation scenario." The market is treading a thin line. All Together In recent months, as interest rate and inflation markets have correlated with tech investment and oil outlook, assets that were not clearly linked have moved in tandem. AI-driven optimism is boosting Wall Street stocks, U.S. household assets, official growth forecasts for the next few years, driving breakneck expansion in Asia exporters, and lifting sentiment across asset classes, from global bank shares, to Greek debt. Taiwan is expecting the highest economic growth for 2026, thanks to "blockbuster semiconductor exports", while global tech spending sent imports and exported in China, which is the world's largest consumer of commodities, surging. It's because of this that the FTSE 100, which includes energy producers and miner stocks, has stopped moving inversely compared to so-called growth stock in the tech sector and is now rising with them. THE FLIPSIDE Investors warned that these tech-driven correlations would also make it harder to hide in the event of fears about inflation and rate increases affecting AI spending driving world markets. Investors warned that after markets began pricing in 70% odds of an U.S. interest rate hike, South Korea's won fell to its lowest level in 17 years and the country's technology-heavy Kospi index plummeted almost 9% within hours. Alessia Bernardi, global director of macro-economics at Amundi's research arm, Europe's biggest asset manager, still favors equities and believes that the markets are not pricing in a long-term Hormuz shut down. She warned that "a repricing (interest rate policy) along with higher oil costs and shortages would mean stagflationary risk, and some countries have already entered a recessionary perspective." The energy supply crisis is already affecting economies like Germany and India that aren't closely linked to technology. BUY THE DIPP? Asset managers are used to geopolitical shocks that cause rapid changes in sentiment. For example, Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff blitz of April 2025 shook U.S. stock prices before retail investors piled on a spectacular recovery trade. Ben Jones, Invesco’s global head for research, said: "If you believe that the Strait will remain closed for an extended period and that demand destruction and inflation are likely to occur then it's time to position your portfolio for stagflation." He said: "History has shown us that geopolitical risk?will pass, and when they do you tend to see markets rally very quickly." After Trump's announcements of tariffs, Wall Street's S&P 500 index fell sharply and then made a rapid and fierce rebound. The equity and bond markets also experienced the biggest swings since the COVID-19 epidemic. HEDGING Michael Nizard said that he was boosting his derivatives to profit from the stock market volatility. Many other asset managers have stated that they are now purchasing more insurance products rather than more equity. Kevin Thozet, a member of the Carmignac Investment Committee, said that he increased his holdings in inflation-linked U.S. debt due to market expectations for U.S. consumers prices being complacent. He said that data centre construction would be capital-intensive and increase energy prices. Ielpo, a Lombard Odier employee, said that he hedged his market bets while holding on to stocks and cutting back on government debt. Government debt can act as a safe-haven but it also moves according to inflation forecasts. German Bund yields have reached their highest levels in 15 years, as the price of debt fell during the Iran War. Meanwhile, Japanese 10-year yields have also risen to the highest level they've seen for three decades. Bond market volatility has risen by 5% since the beginning of the war. The stock market volatility is about the same as its long-term average but 35% more than it was year-to date.
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FOREX Dollar eases as US inflation data keeps rate hike at bay
The dollar eased Wednesday, after data showed that U.S. consumer inflation reached its highest level in 3 years in May. Although the reading was in line economists' expectations. This lowered the odds of the Federal Reserve raising rates this year. In May, the U.S. consumer price index increased at the fastest pace in three years as the Middle East conflict pushed up the cost of gasoline and energy products. Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Labor Department announced on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index had increased by 4.2% over the 12-month period ending in May. This is the biggest gain since April 20,23. The economists surveyed by predicted the CPI to increase 4.2% on an annual basis. Karl Schamotta is the chief market strategist at Corpay, in Toronto. He said that the Federal Reserve has not yet been able to use the soaring prices of energy as a factor for the Federal Reserve's core measures. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. currencies against six other currencies) was 0.2% lower, at 99.75. However, it remained near the two-months high of 100.214?touched Monday. Schamotta stated that traders are preparing for a neutral statement by officials at the meeting next week, and have modestly reduced expectations of a rate increase before year's end. Short-term traders of?U.S. Interest rates have shifted away from betting that the Federal Reserve would deliver a rate increase as early as September. However, traders remain confident that a hike will arrive in October. The U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran also put traders on edge. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that Iran took too long to reach a deal. They would now have to "pay the price." Meanwhile, Tehran announced it would review its diplomatic relationship with Washington following overnight strikes. Dominic Bunning is the head of G10 strategy for FX at Nomura. The Yen remains in focus A Bank of Japan rate increase at its policy meeting on June 16 is almost fully priced, so it's unlikely to cause a significant turnaround in the?yen's weakness even if it happens. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said that it would take a hawkish comment from Governor Ueda to signal the BOJ to move its next hike forward from December to September – with the possibility of a 3rd hike before the end of the year. Without that or something like it, the Ministry of Finance may need to take out their cheque book once again in order to defend the currency. The Japanese yen?remained steady against the dollar at 160.34, and continued to hover around 160. This level is widely considered as a line drawn in the sand that will trigger official intervention. According to a poll of economists, the BOJ is likely to raise its key rate of interest this month, and then again in the fourth-quarter, bringing borrowing costs up to 1.25% at the end of the year. This is because it's more concerned about inflation than the downside risks to the economy. DOLLAR SOFTNESS The Canadian dollar gained 0.2% versus its U.S. equivalent after the Bank of Canada kept?its benchmark rate unchanged on Wednesday. Governor?Tiff MacKlem, however, reiterated that central bank officials would not hesitate to increase rates if necessary to control inflation. The pound was 0.3% stronger against the dollar Wednesday as investors closely watched the latest escalation of tensions between Iran and the U.S. ahead of the UK GDP data on Friday. The leading cryptocurrency, bitcoin, was almost flat on the day. It now stands at $62,069. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland, Jan Harvey and Jan Harvey; Additional reporting and editing by Sophie Kiderlin and Satoshi Sugyama in London; Reporting by Saqib Ahmed Iqbal; Additional reporting and editing by Sophie Kiderlin and Satoshi Sugyama in Tokyo)
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ROI-Global trade in rude health? McGeever: Yes, with a catch
Global trade is not cooling in the shadow of tariffs and trade wars. It's heating. How durable is it when the price and not the volume is what's stoking up the flames? Recent trade data from the U.S., China and other major economies show that cross border commerce is growing at a faster rate than economists expected. In many cases the "increased activity" and the "surprisingly strong headline export numbers" were primarily driven by "higher prices". These reflect the spike in inflation caused by the Iran War, particularly on the oil and energy markets. This was especially true in the U.S. where exports reached a record of $327 billion last month, largely due to shipments of a wide range goods. In fact, the goods surplus shrank to the lowest level since 2020. This is good news for the U.S. economic system, since the declining deficit could contribute to the growth of the economy in the second quarter. This may be primarily due to the high prices of fuel, oil and other energy products. It is important to ask how long the improvements will last. It's not only the price that matters. Canada's physical export volumes are now back where they were prior to the U.S. Presidential election which returned Donald Trump to office in November 2024. This has triggered trade tensions with the United States. According to CIBC, the exports of April were only second to those in February last year when companies were preparing for Trump's looming duties. Base effects are another factor which may have a positive impact on headline trade figures. The slowdown in trade during the first half of the year as Trump's tariff wars began is now used to compare year-over-year figures. It is too early to predict a trade revival. CHIPS, CHIPS HORAY The price is also playing a major role in Asia's trade explosion, but the booming AI-related demand also fuels the sizzling numbers. China, the largest exporter in the world, saw its total exports rise 19.4% in May. Pantheon Macroeconomics says that sales of high-tech goods accounted for 12 percent. While the value of integrated-circuit exports has more than doubled in the last year, the export volume rose by only 2%. This suggests that the headline figure is inflated because the price was high. The same thing is happening in other sectors. However, Beijing policymakers and critics will continue to focus on headline dollar figures, particularly the large one, China's total 12-month rolling trade surplus of more than $1 trillion. Taiwan's AI export surge was even more impressive. Exports rose in May more than expected to the second highest level by value ever, up almost 52% compared to a year ago. Price was again a major factor. TSMC, the largest manufacturer of 'advanced chip technology used in AI applications', is based in Taiwan. It also supplies Nvidia and Apple, among other tech giants. Chips, computer equipment and software, as well as other high-tech products, have seen a surge in price over the last year, largely due to an explosion in demand. Goldman Sachs Global Institute estimates that AI-related investments will reach $7.6 trillion by 2031. SURPRISING RESILIENCE Global trade has shown remarkable resilience, which few observers could have imagined possible in the face of volatile market conditions. Trump's "Liberation Day tariffs" triggered a global trade war, which may have ended decades of internationalization. Geopolitical rifts also threaten trade flows, notably in Middle East. AI frenzy?can be credited with keeping global trade moving. The demand for these applications has accelerated, and much of the trade of AI-related products takes place across borders. The question is, can this continue? Could the rise in AI compute costs curb demand eventually? Could major powers seek to reduce AI supply chains in order to minimize national security risks? The AI boom is unlikely to fade away anytime soon, which suggests that trade activity could'remain resilient', even in the face of deglobalization, tariffs and protectionism. Everything seems to be dependent on the outcome of this tech story, just as it is with other parts of the global economic system. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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IIR reports that the gasoline unit of Nigeria's biggest refinery will resume full rates by mid-June.
IIR Energy, a monitor of the oil industry in Nigeria, said that Dangote's refinery had derated its gasoline-making unit (RFCC), by 34%. The?unit is expected to resuming full fares around mid-June. The refinery didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. "Initially, the lighter crude that was being processed resulted?insufficient feed availability for the RFCCU. By the end of the month, IIR Energy confirmed that there was a problem with the RFCCU's flue gas sliding gate valve. IIR confirmed that the repair work is nearly complete on "that issue" in an email. Fuel prices are at record highs due to the war in the Middle East. Africa's biggest refinery was fully operational in early 2018. Its goal was to?transform Nigeria into a major supplier of?refined? products after decades of inadequate refinery capacities. According to Kpler's data, gasoline exports have fallen from 81,000 barrels per day last June, down to 17,000 barrels a day in May.
Can Wall Street's boom ease workers' suffering? McGeever
The gains from Wall Street are not evenly distributed among the majority of U.S. household owners, but they are increasing. This broad, but concentrated equity ownership becomes more significant as the U.S. workers share of GDP plummets and concerns about an AI-induced "jobpocalypse".
Can the "wealth effect" - where people feel richer and spend more when asset prices increase - offset other, more challenging economic forces that are affecting the average Joe's life?
Wall Street has never been more important to the financial fortunes and success of Americans. Over 60% of American households either directly or inadvertently own stocks. A record third of the total assets of U.S. household is invested in stocks.
Wall Street is still booming, thanks to artificial intelligence. The net U.S. house value as a percent of personal disposable income is at its highest level ever, even if you exclude the pandemic distortions in 2021 and 2022.
Why, then, is consumer confidence at an all-time low, according to some of the most closely monitored measures?
EXTREME CONCENTRATION
Part of the answer is that wealth effects are not evenly distributed.
The richest 10% of Americans own 90% of all U.S. equity. Even more concentrated is the wealth at the top. Half of the stock market wealth of the United States is owned by the richest 1%.
The vast equity hoard of the wealthy is distorting the overall picture, and is helping to "entrench" the "K-shaped economy", where the wealthy are prospering while the rest is suffering.
In fact, workers are lagging behind in several ways. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that U.S. worker's share of output is at a record low 54.1%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show that U.S. workers' share of output has dropped to a record-low 54.1%.
It's no surprise that American consumers are watching their wallets closely, despite what is happening on Wall Street.
In fact, the earnings reports and outlooks of some of the biggest U.S. retailers indicate that there is a shift underway in U.S. consumer spending patterns - and mainly downwards.
Home Depot expects demand to remain volatile as customers scale back on major home improvements. Lowe's, a rival home improvement chain, also indicated a tightening of spending due to sluggish housing markets.
TJX, parent company of discount retailer TJ Maxx has raised its outlook, a sign that more consumers who are cost-conscious are moving to TJX's stores and away from its more expensive competitors.
Walmart has maintained its conservative sales and profit targets as fuel prices continue to rise, driving shoppers towards its low-priced essentials and groceries.
Has the "wealth" effect become a luxury?
WORKERS SHRINK THE SHARE OF PIE
It may have, but it can still keep the economy in general humming.
Credit Insights analysts believe that the wealth effect acts as an "economic and political narrative offset" for the current doom that is weighing heavily on large segments of U.S. consumer.
Bank of America also seems optimistic. They argue that stocks would need to be in a "sustained decline" to slow spending by higher-income earners and to?effectively shut the 'K,' from the 'K shaped' economy? via negative wealth effects.
Remember that wealthy Americans are responsible for a large portion of the total U.S. consumer spending.
Generali Asset Management's research, however, strikes a cautionary note. It was published even before the Iran War sent energy prices skyrocketing.
Generali strategists claim that because equity ownership is concentrated among older and wealthier households, and since much of their discretionary spending is discretionary, consumption growth driven by positive wealth effects is likely to be narrower and more sensitive than it was in the past.
The models show that a 8% drop in the stock markets would reduce GDP by 0.4%. "The actual impact is likely to be greater given the current over-representation of wealth effects."
Stock market boom has proven to be a false alarm about the 'demise of U.S. consumers all year. Wall Street will have a lot of work to do, given the 'heavy lifting ahead.
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(source: Reuters)