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Oil prices jump on renewed US-Iran hostilities
The price of oil rose by more than 1% after renewed fighting between the U.S.A. and Iran. This triggered a fragile ceasefire, and dashed hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, an important transit route for oil and gas. Brent crude futures rose $1.41 or 1.41% to $101.47 per barrel at 0123 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), U.S. crude oil futures, rose $1.12 or 1.18% to $95.93 per barrel. Prices had already risen more than 3% at the opening of the market. This ended three days of declines following reports that earlier in the week,?the U.S. was close to reaching a deal with Iran to end the fighting. It would also allow the Strait of Hormuz reopen fully. However, it would put off the larger issues surrounding Iran's nuke programme. Both contracts are expected to drop 6% in the next week. The price spike on Friday was a result of Iran accusing the U.S. of violating the month-long ceasefire between the two countries. Meanwhile, the U.S. claimed its attacks were in retaliation for Iranian?fire that hit its navy ships transiting the strait on Thursday. Iran's military claimed that the U.S. targeted an Iranian oil-tanker, another ship, and civilian areas on the mainland and in the Strait. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, told reporters that the ceasefire remained in place despite the renewed fighting. Washington was waiting for a response from?Iran to its latest peace proposal. This did not address several contentious issues, including the U.S. request to reopen a strait that was a conduit for one-fifth the world's supply of oil and gas before the war, but has been mostly closed since the conflict began, which included strikes by Israel. Tony Sycamore, IG analyst, said that the situation on the supply front remains tight. He also stated that a 'peace agreement' remains elusive. Separately the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is investigating trades of oil prices totaling $7 billion, ahead of President Trump's key Iran War-related announcements, was reported on Thursday. The majority of trades were'short positions', or bets that prices would fall, made on the Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange before Trump announced his intention to delay attacks on Iran or to announce a ceasefire.
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The war in Iran will accelerate China's switch to electric trucks over diesel
Analysts and automakers predict that the rise in diesel prices caused by the Iran War will accelerate the electrification process of China's heavy trucks fleet this year and help to reduce fuel consumption in the world's biggest oil importer. Over the past two years, electric?heavy trucks have grown from a niche to nearly a quarter of all new heavy truck purchases by 2025. This is thanks to government subsidies and cheap refuelling. The growth of last year was particularly pronounced in the fourth quarter, as buyers believed that the trade-in subsidies would soon end. According to CVWorld.cn, new-energy heavy trucks, which are mainly electric, started this year with a similar boom. Sales grew 45% on an annual basis to 44,000 units, accounting for over a quarter of segment sales. CVWorld.cn also said that it expects sales of heavy electric vehicles to increase 30% in April, due to a stronger seasonal demand as well as higher oil prices. Min Ji, a senior analyst at S&P Global Mobility said that the war in China has pushed up fuel prices, and this will lead to accelerated replacement of traditional trucks. The company plans to revise its forecasts for electric truck sales by the end of this month. Electric heavy trucks have a range of about 300 km (186 mi), and are mainly used for short trips between industrial sites, and transport hubs. However, long-distance corridors continue to expand and manufacturers such as Sany now market trucks with a range of up 600 km. The rapid introduction of liquefied natural gas and electric trucks has also reversed the decades-long growth of the use of gasoline and diesel in China. Several energy consultants now expect diesel consumption to decline faster than originally forecast. GL Consulting predicts that diesel consumption will fall by 4.3% in this year, compared to a forecast of 4.1% before the war. Rystad Energy forecasts a 5% drop in diesel demand this year. This is faster than the 4% decline they predicted before the war. It's equivalent to an additional decrease of around 40,000 barrels a day. MOVE OVERSEAS AND SAVE MONEY The economics of buying an EV truck are more compelling because the price of diesel in China has risen 27% since the Iran War began on February 28, the highest it's been in four years. In China, electric heavy trucks can cost up to 500,000 yuan (about $73,500), and diesel versions more than 300,000. But buyers are able to save nearly half of that price with a trade-in program that was extended from April to the end of the year. The EV trucks are a lot cheaper to run. GL Consulting estimates that lifetime costs for an electric truck – including purchase price, fuel and operation costs over a million kilometers – are half of a diesel-equivalent at current?fuel rates. These lower costs also drive an export boom into Europe, which is the second largest electric truck market in the world, but it still lags behind China. According to the International Energy Agency, China will sell 160,000 electric trucks in 2024. In Europe, however, they'll only be less than 25,000. In March, it was reported that up to 12 Chinese manufacturers, including the top-selling Sany brand, planned to sell their products in Europe at a price of up to one third less than what is currently being charged. Chen Dong, the Deputy General Manager of Sany, told reporters in April that Sany was already anticipating that the market for electric tractor trucks would increase by 50%, to 250,000 units. Chen stated that the odds of reaching this goal are on the rise, due to rising oil prices.
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US Trade Court rules Trump tariffs illegal but issues narrow block
The U.S. trade court ruled on Thursday against President Donald Trump’s latest 10% tariffs on global goods, stating that they were not justified by a 1970s law on trade. However, the court only halted 'the levy on Washington State and two small businesses. The U.S. Court of International Trade has ruled in favor of two businesses, Washington State and the state of Washington that had challenged the tariffs which went into effect on 24 February. The decision was 2-1 with one judge stating that it was premature for the small businesses to win. The White House didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. The Trade Court declined to issue an order that would block tariffs on all imports. They rejected a request from a group of states led by Democrats. The court determined that Washington was the only state that had imported goods and paid Section 122 tariffs. Washington provided evidence that it had paid tariffs via the University of Washington - a public research institute. The?duties for other importers will continue to be in effect during any government appeal. Basic Fun!, a toy manufacturer, and Burlap & Barrel, a spice importer both argued that the new tariffs were an attempt to sidestep a landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision which struck down the Republican president's 2025 tariffs imposed under International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The two small businesses, toy company Basic Fun! In his February order Trump invoked Section 122 of 1974's Trade Act, which allows duties to be imposed for up to 150 days in order for serious "balance of payment deficits" to be corrected or prevent a depreciation of dollars. The court ruled on Thursday that the law did not apply to the types of trade deficits Trump cited in February's order. This decision is a major win for American companies who rely on global manufacturing to provide safe and affordable products. Unlawful tariffs are making it difficult for companies like Basic Fun to grow and compete. We are encouraged that the court recognized that these tariffs were beyond the President's authority. This ruling provides clarity and stability to companies that are navigating global supply chain," he said. Trump's administration claimed that there was a "serious balance-of payments deficit" in the U.S., a deficit of $1.2 trillion annually on goods trade and a deficit of current account of 4% GDP. Some economists and lawyers argued that the U.S. was not at the brink of a balance-of payments crisis. This made the new duties susceptible to legal challenges.
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Consolidated Edison reports higher quarterly profits on robust power demand
Consolidated Edison announced a rise in its first-quarter profit on Thursday. This was due to a 'robust demand' for their electricity, steam and gas?services, amid freezing temperatures across the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that power consumption in the United States will hit new records this year. A winter storm and an Arctic 'Blast' spread a mix of heavy snow, freezing rain and sleet across the majority of eastern U.S. This boosted demand for natural gas and electricity, both of which are used to heat homes. Consolidated Edison has service areas in New York, New Jersey and Westchester County. Tim Cawley, CEO of the company, said that "Electrification in heating and transportation has accelerated at an unprecedented rate". He added that they were investing to meet this demand while balancing costs and affordability. The company plans to invest approximately $6.59 billion in capital projects by 2026, and $6.76 trillion by 2027. Consolidated Edison’s total operating revenue increased to $5.09bn during the first quarter. This is up from $4.79bn a year earlier. The increase was primarily due to higher revenues for?gases and steam. During the quarter, electric revenues increased 4.7% to $3.04 Billion. The New York utility's net income increased to $924 million in the three-month period ended March 31 from $791 millions a year ago. (Reporting from Vallari Srivastava, Bengaluru. Editing by Sahal Muhammad)
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Block increases its annual gross profit forecast on consumer spending strength
Block, led by Jack Dorsey, raised its full-year outlook Thursday. The 'payments firm' benefited from strong growth in its core businesses and resilient consumer spending. The Oakland-based company now expects its annual gross profit in 2026 to be $12.33 Billion, up from the previous forecast of 12.20 Billion. The company's shares jumped by 7% during extended trading. As of the latest close, the stock had risen by 9%. U.S. consumer expenditure remained resilient in the first three months 2026. This was largely due to a stable labor markets and wage growth. The U.S./Israeli war against Iran also had a positive impact on the economy. Block's Cash App, Square and Block's Cash App businesses grew strongly in the quarter. Cash App, a peer-to-peer mobile payment platform, saw its gross profit jump 38% in the third quarter. The volume of consumer lending at the company jumped 82% from $17.6 Billion a year ago. The results are the culmination of a strong reporting season in the payments sector. Card giants Visa, and Mastercard have also posted 'robust earnings. The adjusted?profit for the three-month period ended March 31 was $513,000,000, or 85 cents a share. This compares to $355,000,000, or 56 cents a share, one year ago. Block also incurred $852 Million in restructuring charges and other costs in the first quarter. In early 2018, the company announced that it would be reducing over 4,000 positions as part of an overall overhaul to integrate artificial intelligence into its operations.
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Oil prices are choppy, stocks fall as US-Iran deal is still in flux
U.S. stocks and European shares fell on Thursday as oil prices fluctuated between gains and losses. Investors are still uncertain about the peace negotiations?between Iran and the U.S. Wall Street's?major indexes retreated slightly after?strong?chipmaker earnings drove them to multiple record highs. The S&P500 fell by 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.1% and Dow Jones Industrial Average lost by 0.6%. The oil prices settled down after a report that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had lifted restrictions on the use of their airspace by the United States and their military bases. This allowed Washington to resume operations to escort ships through Strait of Hormuz, as early as this coming week. Brent crude futures fell 1.2%, or $1.21, to $100.06 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $94.81 down by 0.28%, or 27 cents. Both benchmarks fell by up to $5 per barrel earlier on the optimism that Washington and Tehran would reach a temporary, limited agreement. The STOXX Europe 600 index finished lower by 1.1%, after a 2.2% jump on Wednesday. Meanwhile, MSCI's largest?index for Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan reached a new all-time record, with a 1.6% gain. Japan's Nikkei reached 62,000 for the very first time. The MSCI All-Country World Index fell by 0.1% and held near record highs. OIL RISK In a note published on Thursday, Daniel Skelly of Morgan Stanley’s?Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team wrote that oil volatility?may have less impact on the stock market’s daily performance. But its long-term effect on inflation remains an?open? question. Brent remains around 40% higher than its level in late February, when the war started, and 10-year Treasury yields are surging - a stark reminder of the pressure that rising energy costs continue put on the world economy. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rates rose by 2.8 basis point to 4.382%. "Certainly, the clock is moving towards a time... when oil inventories are no longer able to be drawn down at the present pace and energy prices will jump significantly," wrote Investec's market strategists in a Thursday note. In March, the global market was shook by a rocketing oil price. However, a fragile ceasefire in Syria and the prospect of a settlement have fueled a rally that is based on risk. This rally has continued since April. It's been fuelled by strong earnings reports from tech companies. S&P COMPANIES? Set for ROBUST PROFIT Growth S&P 500 companies on track to achieve their highest profit growth in over four years, despite Intel and Advanced Micro Devices declining on Thursday, paring earlier gains this week. Manish Kabra is a Market Strategist at Societe Generale. He wrote a client letter on Thursday that stated: "U.S. Earnings confirm a wide-based profit boom. Record EPS (earnings-per-share) beats, record-high margins, and sharply improved '26 growth expectation." A survey of economists indicates that investors are waiting for the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday. The jobs should have increased by 62,000 in April after recovering 178,000 in March. The euro was flat at $1.174 on the currency markets. The dollar index, which measures U.S. currencies against six different units, was also flat. After recent spikes in market activity, there was speculation that Japan intervened in support of the battered currency. The yen fell 0.24% to 156.76 dollars after hitting a 10-week-high of 155 on Tuesday. Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne, Sophie Kiderlin, and Ankur Banerjee, in Boston; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle and Nick Zieminski.
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Compass is poised Compass to end Brazil's almost five-year IPO rut
Compass Gas e Energia SA is set to launch its initial 'public offering' on a Thursday, ending a nearly 5-year IPO stalemate on Brazil’s B3 Stock Exchange due to high interest rates. According to two sources familiar with the transaction, the offering of 89.3 millions shares by the existing shareholders of the gas distributor could generate around 3 billion Brazilian reais (about 600 million dollars). One person said that by early afternoon on Thursday, the orders had nearly tripled the size of the initial?offering. The second source said that despite the high demand, pricing may be at the lower end, 28 reais per share. The price range was 28 to 35 reais for each share. A sale at the upper end would equate to a valuation around 25 billion reais. If the IPO is completed as planned, Compass will be the first IPO to take place on the Brazilian stock exchange since 2021 when Raizen, which was the largest sugar producer in the world, became?public. Compass is part of Cosan’s larger push to reduce leverage and sell assets, due to high interest rates that have affected the group’s results. One person said that Cosan would use approximately 75% of the IPO proceeds to pay off debt. Cosan had planned to launch an IPO in '2020 for Compass but decided against it due to the unfavorable?market conditions. Despite the long-term local IPO drought in Brazil, companies such as Picpay, a digital banking company owned by 'the Batista Family,' and fintech Agibank have launched shares on U.S. bourses. High interest rates and concerns about Brazil's fiscal stability have stymied many companies who had attempted to go public over the past few years. (Reporting and editing by Cynthia Osterman; Luciana magalhaes)
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Reporting shows that oil-price wagers before the Iran war news totaled $7 billion.
According to traders, analysts and exchange data, there were a series of well-timed bets made on the falling oil price in March and April, totaling up to $7 billion. These bets were spread over multiple exchanges, types of fuel, and derivatives, just before Donald Trump's major announcements about Iran policy. The amount exceeds the $2.6 billion in?bets that were previously reported, and has already led to the U.S. Administration?warning staff not to use nonpublic information as a means of financial gain. A?person with knowledge of the matter said in April that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating. However, the CFTC still hasn't confirmed the investigation. They could not determine who made the bets or if they originated in America or elsewhere. These included short positions or bets on falling prices for derivatives such as ICE and CME crude oil, diesel, and gasoline futures. Bets were placed on the Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange, two major exchanges which host benchmark futures trading for global oil and fuels. Both exchanges declined comment. A source with knowledge of the situation said that the CME is looking into the trades. Legal experts and legislators have called for the regulators to investigate if these well-timed transactions were based on leaks or inside information. The first unusual trades were noticed by traders on 23?March. The trades were made just minutes before Trump announced that he would delay his threatened attack on Iranian power infrastructure. This triggered a drop in oil prices. On April 7, Trump announced a truce with Iran, which caused a drop of up to 15% in benchmark ICE Brent Futures. The same pattern repeated on April 17 when Iranian officials and Trump discussed reopening Strait of Hormuz. And again on the 21st of April when Trump extended his ceasefire. Other media reported these trades in the front-month contracts of the two benchmark global crudes Brent and West Texas Intermediate. Initial calculations put the value of these bets at $2.6 billion on four days between March and April. The U.S. Justice Department, as well as the CFTC, did not respond immediately to requests for comments. White House spokesperson: "All federal employees are subject to government ethical guidelines that prohibit using non-public information in order to gain financial benefit." A further analysis of the trading data across exchanges showed that traders placed similar bets exactly at the same times and dates?for European Diesel and U.S. Gasoline Futures, as well as for longer-dated contracts for Brent and WTI. Calculations show the total was around $7 billion. Short selling or a sell bet is when the trader borrows a derivative from the counterparty and sells it, then buys it cheaper later on when the price drops, keeping any remaining profit. The oil price dropped by more than 10% on March 23, April 7, 17, and 21. Calculations show that, depending on when the bets were made, a $7 billion short seller could have made millions in profit. Adi Imsirovic from the Center for Strategic and International Studies and an oil trader veteran said that these trades looked "well-informed" because they were made before major announcements. He added that U.S. authorities such as the CFTC can access exchange data in order to track who made the trades, and to investigate if they choose to. ABC reported on Thursday that the U.S. The Department of Justice is investigating oil transactions worth $2.6 billion that are related to the Iran War. The DOJ did not respond to a request for comment. In March, the CFTC's Enforcement Director said that his agency was "watching" speculation about insider trading on CFTC-regulated market. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Let's stick to the facts. The volume was unusual. The volumes were unusually high. They were in advance of important announcements", said Jorge?Montepeque, from Onyx Capital Group. He helped design the modern oil price setting system at Platts pricing agency back in the 90s. Brent crude, low-sulphur gasoline, and West Texas Intermediate crude are traded on the Intercontinental Exchange. The New York Mercantile Exchange is owned by CME Group. Trump announced at 1105 GMT on March 23 that he would delay the threatened attack against Iranian power infrastructure. LSEG data indicates that traders bet on 20,000 Brent and WTI Futures between 1049 and1050 GMT. The sales were spread over the first, second, and third month contracts. They totaled $1.35 billion. In addition, $122 million was spent on ICE Gasoil - Diesel - Futures, and $81 million was spent on U.S. gas futures. Robert Frenchman, a New York lawyer who previously worked in white-collar crimes and insider trading, said that "those quantities will not escape scrutiny." Trump's ceasefire announcement on March 23 triggered a drop in crude futures as high as 15%. This was one of the biggest intraday drops ever recorded. This announcement sent futures for gasoline and gasoil down by around 12%. Between 1944 and 1945 GMT on April 7, sell orders for oil and gasoline worth $2,12 billion were placed. This was well after the markets settled and at a time of low volumes. Trump announced minutes later a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran. Nearly $2 billion worth of Brent, WTI and gasoil futures, as well as gasoline, were sold on April 17 at 1224-1225 GMT. This was just minutes before Iranian Foreign Ministry Abbas Araqchi announced that Hormuz will reopen. Trump and U.S. officials then posted multiple posts to social media. On April 21, about $830 million in Brent and WTI futures contracts were sold only 15 minutes before Trump extended his ceasefire. (Alun John, Alex Lawler, Robert Harvey and Michelle Price contributed additional reporting from London and Washington. Editing was done by Simon Webb and David Gregorio.
Oil prices and futures are down on renewed US-Iran conflict
After the United States and Iran exchanged fire, U.S. stocks futures fell in early trading on Friday. This put in doubt a one-month-old Middle East ceasefire.
U.S. crude futures, which were?lower than last week's closing price of $96.8 per barrel, rose?more?than?2%.
S&P futures fell about 0.2%, and Nikkei Futures indicated a slightly lower opening for Japanese shares which had soared to new record highs Thursday.
Iran's top joint Military Command said that the U.S. targeted an Iranian oil tanker as well as another ship that entered the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. Military?said that it acted out of self-defence when Iran attacked Navy destroyers passing through the strait. The U.S. military said that Iran did not target any U.S. assets during the attack, and U.S. president Donald Trump told ABC News that the ceasefire agreement with Iran was still in place.
The strikes took place while Washington awaited Iran's response to an American proposal that would stop the fighting, but leave most controversial issues, like Iran's nuke programme, unresolved.
The rising tension in the foreign exchange market lifted the dollar from its recent lows, and it is now on track to finish the week largely steady.
The yen has been unable to rise above 155 per dollar despite the fact that data suggests the authorities in Tokyo sold up to $67 billion to defend the currency in the last week.
The last time the yen traded was at 156.88 to a dollar, and the euro was at $1.1726. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent will be visiting Tokyo next week. Markets are on high alert for any comments that he may make regarding the yen and Japan's monetary policies, considering his previous remarks in favor of faster Japanese rate hikes.
A survey of economists indicates that investors are eagerly awaiting the U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday. The report is expected to show that jobs increased by 62,000 in April after recovering 178,000 in March. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann; Tom Westbrook)
(source: Reuters)