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El Nino and the World's Weather in 2026/27
Forecasters say that a powerful El Nino will develop in the second half 2026. This phenomenon is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions across Asia while increasing rains throughout North America and South America. What do forecasters predict? Japan's Weather Bureau says that there is a 70% probability of an 'El Nino' forming during the summer in the northern hemisphere, and Indian weather authorities warn that the South Asian 'nation's Monsoon Season could be below normal for the first time since three years. El Nino is expected to continue through the year, after first appearing in May. U.S. Climate Prediction Center predicts that there is a 61% probability of El Nino in the period between May and July. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts below-average rainfall in the eastern cropping areas between May and August -?the first part of Australia's growing season. The weather models predict temperatures and rains above normal in Australia, Southeast Asia, and India. He added, "Overall I think this will be an ideal year for growing conditions in the Midwest of the United States." We will need to monitor the timing of El Nino. There could be impacts from excessive moisture near harvest. What are the EL NINO and LA?NINA weather events? The tropical Pacific is a climate system with two phases. El Nino is a pattern of unusually high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The heat is redistributed when atmospheric pressure shifts weaken or reverse the normally steady easterly winds. This allows warm water piled up in western Pacific to move eastward, changing global weather patterns. La Nina occurs when the trade winds intensify, pushing warm water towards the western Pacific while allowing cooler water to rise in the east. This causes sea surface temperatures to fall below normal. La Nina can bring above-average rains to parts of Southeast Asia and Australia, but it has a variable impact on the Indian Monsoon, not a uniformly stronger one. La Nina in the Americas tends to cause a wetter climate in northern South America, and a drier climate in the south. The Americas as a whole become drier. Bureau of Meteorology in Australia says that an El Nino happens every three - to five years and a La Nina every three - seven years. What was the impact of previous El Ninos events? El Ninos can vary in their severity and impact. The strong monsoon in 2015 and 2016, which weakened the Indian Monsoon, caused severe droughts across Australia and Southeast Asia. It decreased the production of sugar, palm oil, and grain. In South America, the excessive rains disrupted corn and soybean harvests. In India and Southeast Asia, a?moderate El Nino? in 2009 and 2010 brought dry weather which reduced the yields of rice and wheat staples. El Nino 1997-1998 was the strongest ever recorded. The El Nino caused droughts in parts of Asia, resulting in a reduction of rice production. India however received an average amount rainfall. In the Americas, flooding damaged crops. The last time a La Nina of this strength occurred was between 2020 and 2023. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Naveen Thupkral)
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Gold to drop by a week as oil prices rise, fueling inflation fears
Gold prices fell on Friday, and were on course for a weekly drop. High oil prices fueled fears of inflation as well as higher interest rates in the future as U.S. - Iran peace talks remain stalled. As of 0609 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.2%, at $4,683.13 an ounce. After a four-week streak of gains, the metal has fallen 3% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell?0.6% at $4,697.80. Brent crude prices are up about 17% this week, hovering above $105 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed in spite of an extended ceasefire with Iran. According to Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at OANDA, as long as there is a risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait, oil prices will remain high, pushing up gold prices. A rise in crude oil prices could cause inflation by increasing transportation and production costs, which would increase the probability of interest rates rising. Gold is seen as an inflation hedge. However, with high interest rates, yield-bearing investments are more appealing, and this reduces the appeal of bullion. Wong stated that gold is stuck in a sideways range between the 50-day average of $4,900, and the 20-day average of $4,645 at the bottom. "Everything boils down to what's happening in the Middle East," he said. Iran showed off its increased control over the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, with a video showing commandos in speedboats?storming an enormous cargo ship. This was after the failure of peace talks which Washington had hoped would lead to the opening of?one the world's major shipping corridors. Trump told reporters he thought Tehran was interested in a deal, but its leadership was in turmoil. He said that he wasn't in a hurry to make a deal but if Iran didn't want one "I will finish it militarily." The U.S. Dollar is up 0.8% this week so far, making greenback priced bullion more costly for other currency holders. The yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have increased by about 2% in this past week, increasing opportunity costs for holding non-yielding gold. Silver spot fell 0.5%, to $75.07 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.7%, to $1,991.72, and palladium rose 0.1%, to $1,469.04. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Janane Venkatraman, and Noel John)
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Holcim beats first-quarter forecasts despite construction sector softening
Holcim, the Swiss cement giant, reported better than expected first-quarter results on Friday. It also confirmed its outlook for the full year despite concerns over a'slowing world economy' that is weighing down?on confidence?in?the construction industry. Holcim said its sales dropped 4.8%, to 3,52 billion Swiss Francs ($4.47billion) during the three-month period ending March. This was better than analyst expectations of 3.42 billion Swiss Francs. The recurring operating profit (EBIT), which is based on a consensus of analysts, fell to 431 millions francs. This was higher than the analyst forecasts of 407 million in a company compiled consensus. Holcim's withdrawal from Nigeria and other countries, the wet weather across Europe, and the strong Swiss Franc all had an impact on these figures. The company also reshaped its business portfolio during the third quarter through five transactions. These included the acquisition of Cementos?Pacasmayo, a Peruvian cement manufacturer, and an agreement to acquire the building materials businesses in Colombia. Miljan Gutovic said, "We confirm our full-year guidance for 2026 with our resilient and proven model across all economic cycles, market conditions and business conditions." He described the results of the company as robust but did not mention the conflict in the Middle East. The construction industry has been a bit sluggish since the start of the year. In fact, the Royal Institute of Chartered surveyors has halved its growth forecast for the next decade to 1-2%. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at?Simon Rubinsohn?, said that global confidence in residential construction and non-residential building had turned negative compared to the end of 2025. Holcim said it still expects to increase its annual sales by 3-5%, after removing currency and acquisition effects, and to improve recurring operating profits?by 8 to 10%. During the first quarter of this year, its results were within its target range. Its organic sales increased by 3.9% and its operating profit by 8,3%.
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Oil prices advance on US-Iran conflict, causing shares to be jittery
Oil prices rose again on Friday as investors were disappointed by the shaky truce in the Middle East conflict and the stalled U.S. Iran peace talks. Futures showed a gloomy?opening for Europe. EUROSTOXX50 futures fell 0.7%, FTSE 'futures slid 0.76% and DAX 'futures slipped 0.25%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan reversed initial losses to gain 0.46%. It was on track to finish the week with roughly a 1% increase. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.85%. Stocks in South Korea, China, and Hong Kong all fell. Nasdaq Futures rose 0.4%, while S&P500 futures were flat. Investors this week vacillated between the hope of an imminent end to war and the fear that it may not happen soon. Vishnu Varathan is the head of Mizuho’s macro strategy in APAC. Iran showed off its tightened control of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday with a video of speedboat commandos storming a large cargo ship. Meanwhile, U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he ordered the Navy to shoot and kill Iranian boats that were laying mines and increase demining activities. Trump's remarks came only days after he announced that he would extend indefinitely a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran, to allow for future peace talks. Varathan said that there would not be a linear decline in violence, oil prices or volatility surrounding the supply shock. Investors have been looking for excuses to take advantage of the market. I don't think anyone in the market believes this will end in a few weeks. As the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz continued, oil prices increased. Brent crude futures rose 0.55%, to $105.65 per barrel. U.S. crude also gained 0.25%, to $96.09 a barrel. The markets, however, have largely ignored the news that Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire by three weeks following a high-level White House meeting. The Yen at the Cusp of 160 The currency market was more subdued on Friday. However, the dollar is on track to gain weekly gains due to a renewed demand for safe-haven assets. The euro, which last purchased $1.1677, was expected to lose 0.7% of its value for the week. Sterling was not much changed at $1.3462 but was headed for a 0.4% weekly loss. Investors are focusing on the policymakers' comments about the impact of the war on inflation and economy. Jane Foley is the head of FX Strategy at Rabobank. She said: "In light of the demand destruction implied in?higher fuel prices, it may be a?understandable reluctance on the part of many G10 policymakers" to continue with rate increases over the next few months. Next week, the Bank of Japan will also meet. It is expected that it will keep interest rates at current levels. Before that date, currency traders focused on the yen, which was just a whisker away from the 160-dollar mark, widely regarded as the trigger for an intervention. The Japanese currency last weakened at 159.78 dollars per yen and is expected to fall 0.7% this week. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated warnings about currency intervention on Friday and stressed "decisive action" in close coordination to the United States. Carl Ang is a fixed income analyst at MFS Investment Management. He said that lower market liquidity during the Golden Week, which follows directly after the BOJ's meeting, could provide an opportunity for FX interventions and a knee jerk appreciation of the yen in the range 150-160. The markets will be closed for a few days during the Golden Week, which runs from early May to mid-May. Spot gold prices fell by 0.5%, to $4,670.33 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Kate Mayberry, Sam Holmes and Rae Wee)
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Gold to drop by a week as oil prices rise, fueling inflation fears
Gold?prices dropped on Friday - and were on course for a 'weekly 'drop. As of 0426 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.7%, at $4,661.33 an ounce. After a four-week streak of gains, the metal has fallen 3.5% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 1% to $4,676.50. Brent crude prices are up over 17% this week, hovering above $105 per barrel. This is because the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed in spite of an extended ceasefire with Iran. According to Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at OANDA, as long as there is a?risk? of a prolonged closure of the Strait, oil prices will remain high, pushing up gold prices. A rise in crude oil prices could cause inflation by increasing transportation and production costs, which would increase the probability of interest rates rising. Gold is a good inflation hedge. However, with high interest rates, yield-bearing investments are more appealing, and this reduces the appeal of bullion. Wong stated that gold is trapped between the 50-day average of $4,900 at the top and the 20-day average of $4,645 at the bottom. "Everything now boils down to what's happening in the Middle East," he said. Iran showed off its increased control over the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, with a video showing commandos storming a cargo ship in a speedboat. This was after peace talks collapsed that Washington had hoped would "open" one of the most important shipping routes of the world. Trump told reporters he thought Tehran was interested in a deal, but its leadership is in turmoil. He said that he wasn't in a hurry to make a deal but that if Iran didn't want one "I will finish it militarily." The U.S. Dollar is up 0.8% this week so far, making greenback priced bullion more expensive for currency holders. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are up over 2% in the last week, which increases the cost of non-yielding gold. Silver spot fell by 1%, to $74.69 an ounce. Platinum lost 1.1%, to $1,984.60. Palladium dropped 0.3%, to $1,464.02. (Reporting by Noel John; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Concerns over the escalating tensions in Middle East cause oil prices to rise
The oil prices increased on Friday as a result of fears of a "renewed military escalation" in the Middle East after Iran released footage of its commandos board a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, and reports that Tehran's air defenses engaged "hostile target." Brent crude futures increased 99 cents or 0.94% to $106.06 per barrel at 0410 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 71 cents or 0.73% to $96.56. Brent rose 17.13% during the week, while WTI rose 15.13%. This is the second largest weekly gain since the beginning of the war. After the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was closed. This cut the supply of oil around 20%. The benchmark oil contracts both settled higher by?more? than 3% and rose $5 per barrel on Thursday after reports of air defences engaging targets above Tehran and a power battle between Iran's "hardliners" and "moderates". U.S. president Donald Trump said Iran may have loaded its weapons "a little bit", but that the U.S. Military could eliminate them?in a single day. Haitong Futures stated in a?report that the ceasefire phase looks more and more like a preparation for war. Oil prices could reach new heights this year if U.S. Iran talks fail to'make significant progress by the end April, and combat resumes. Iran posted video on Thursday of commandos storming a cargo ship in a speedboat after peace talks collapsed, underlining the country's grip over the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of the world's oil and gas normally flows. Trump stated that he will not set "a timetable" to end the conflict with Iran, and he wants to make a "great deal." When asked how long he would be willing to wait for an Iran peace agreement, he replied: "Don't hurry me." Mingyu Gao is the chief researcher at China Futures for energy and chemicals. She said that prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would push global crude and refined-product inventories to seasonal lows of five years by late May or early June. This could add a supply-risk premium into oil prices. Trump announced on social media that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to extend the ceasefire for three weeks following a meeting of high-level representatives from both countries at the White House Oval Office. The meeting went well. Trump said on Truth Social that the United States will work with Lebanon to help it "protect itself against Hezbollah". Hezbollah, an armed group with Iranian links that fights Israel, was not present at these talks. It claims to have the "right to resist" any occupying forces. Trump expressed his desire to host Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister and Joseph Aoun, the Lebanese president in a near future. Israel had warned before the announcement that it was prepared to restart its attacks against Iran. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Helen Clark and Sam Li)
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Morning Bid Europe-Iran shows off its power, investors cower
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. The markets were in a gloomy mood on Friday as Iran showed off its grip over the Strait of Hormuz, a reminder that the war in the Middle East is not over. After the failure of peace talks, which Washington had hoped to reopen the world's busiest shipping route, Iranian state television broadcast a video on Thursday of commandos storming a ship in a speedboat. After announcing that he would extend a ceasefire of two weeks with Tehran indefinitely, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered his Navy to "shoot down and kill" Iranian vessels laying mines in the Strait. It's been eight weeks since the war began, and both Iran and the U.S. are still at a standstill. Investors are torn between the hope of an imminent resolution and fear that it may not happen at all. Oil prices continue to rise and surpass $100 per barrel, while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Although corporate earnings are holding up well so far, the unstable situation in the Middle East, and the surge in oil prices, present risks that keep executives on their toes. The UK retail sales figures for March will be released later today. They will give a good indication of how consumers are spending in spite of the war. The survey, released on Thursday, showed that British consumer confidence fell this month to the lowest level since October 2023 as consumers increased their expectations for price increases. British manufacturers are also the most pessimistic they have been since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. A measure of inflation expectations has also risen. Away from Tokyo, the focus on other markets was the yen. It?remained a whisker off the 160-dollar level that is widely considered to be a trigger of intervention. Satsuki Katayama, the Japanese Finance Minister, reiterated warnings about currency intervention Friday. He stressed "decisive actions" in close coordination with the United States. In a sign of the continued artificial intelligence frenzy, Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek began previewing an upgrade to its popular AI model on Friday. The following are the key developments that may influence Friday's markets: - UK retail sales (March) University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April
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Iron ore is in short supply as steel demand remains steady, despite a rise in ore production.
On Friday, iron ore futures were unable to find a direction as a steady demand for steel for construction was countered by?prospects for rising supplies of the steelmaking component. As of 0303 GMT, the most-traded?iron ore September contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was?0.32%?higher. It stood at 787.5 Yuan ($115.19), a metric tonne. The contract is up 1.22% this week. The benchmark iron ore for May on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.1% to $106.8 per ton. This represents a gain of 0.95% in the last week. According to Mysteel, the Chinese supply of finished products increased by 78.900 tons or 0.9% week-on-week. Inventory decreased by 621.200 tons or 3.5%. Construction was the primary driver of the?increased demand for steel products, which indicates a steady demand for steel and feedstock. Prices were also supported by restocking before China's five day May Day holiday. The resolution of a long-running dispute between BHP and China Mineral Resources Group over BHP's contract to supply iron ore has raised the prospects for more shipments. Fortescue, an Australian mining company, reported a 5% increase in its third-quarter iron ore shipment, thanks to a strong performance from?its Hematite operations, and boosted contribution from the Iron Bridge Project. Iron ore was shipped by the world's 4th-largest miner in 48.4 Mt during the quarter ended March 31. This compares to 46.1 Mt a year ago. World Steel Association data released on Thursday showed that the crude steel production in China, which is the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal, dropped 6.3% to 87.0 millions?tons. Coking coal and coke both fell by 0.12% and 0.944% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Rebar rose 0.009%; hot-rolled coil fell 0.06%; wire rod increased 0.28%; and stainless steel gained 1.65%.
Indonesia will import 150 million barrels from Russia of crude oil this year, says deputy minister
Yuliot Tanjung, the Deputy Minister of Energy in Indonesia, said on Friday that Indonesia would 'import 150 millions barrels of crude from Russia this year.
In response to energy shortages caused by the Middle East conflict, Southeast Asia secured crude oil and LPG from Russia.
The announcement was made after President Prabowo Subianto and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Moscow last Thursday.
The government has agreed to import 150 million barrels of crude oil from Russia to meet the country's needs until the end the year.
Yuliot stated that the volume of LPG imports from Russia is yet to be determined.
Yuliot stated that Indonesia also seeks to obtain crude oil and LPG in other countries, including the United States.
"We import around 1 million barrels a day.?So we can see that with these 150 million (barrels),?it's?still?short. He said that we are seeking additional supplies from other countries including the U.S.
Indonesia has signed a contract to purchase oil and gas in the U.S., under the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade.
Yuliot stated, "We hope to?meet the crude oil and domestic LPG requirements from various sources." (Reporting and writing by Bernadette Cristina; editing by David Stanway, Tom Hogue, and Ananda Teresia)
(source: Reuters)